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Around SBN: Explaining Jeremy Lin's Early, Surprising Success

I like stats. You like stats?

So I was playing with a way to compare offensive production - actual goals scored, and assisted. I figure that something that dealt with minutes played would be important.

So I borrowed from the systems where points are earned for goals and assists and then did tiny math. This number is NOT predictive, but instead looks backwards, and it certainly only takes into effect minor team effects. It is not plus/minus (which will be resurrected on Memorial Day), and it is only offense. Clean Sheet tracking will be back on Monday as well. Time off is good.

So let's look at the table.

Star-divide

[table=14]

For me the first thing that I notice is that Zakuani has without a doubt been the most productive player so far. I think any reader would agree. In the next two we see Montero and Jaqua, who are going about it two different ways. One by being great in March, and the other by being a pivot target forward.

Zakuani is in the conversation for Rookie of the year based on the first 10 matches, but Chris Pontius gets all the love. 3 goals and 2 assists in 9 played I guess is so much better than 2 goals and 3 assists in 9. Pontius has a 0.98 v Zakuani's 1.25

When I return to standard previews of matches (yes, that will happen for the Open Cup Qualifier even), I will look at the five most productive players for the opposition, but today you get it for the Rapids anyway.

Casey - 1.41
Cooke - 1.29
Cummings - 0.89
Clark (no relation) - 0.63
Harvey (yes the LB) - 0.25

Colorado is really a four man offense. The two forwards and the two wings. Probably one of the more complete teams that Seattle has faced so far. This will be tough, but at least the back four are healthy.

Oh, and I looked up my prediction for the first ten. Seattle can actually beat my rose colored projection.

I said 5 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses for 17 points. Even with the loss, Sounders FC would pace for 45 points. With the win that number becomes 54. Playoff chances look strong, at least so far, currently at 85%.

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Great stats. Zakuani has played well and is developing a left foot! Jaqua is a hound. Montero’s had a tough month, but hopefully the goal will wake him up.

by Jesse A on May 27, 2009 1:28 AM PDT reply actions  

Have to figure out a way to use Le Toux. Speedy.

by Jesse A on May 27, 2009 1:31 AM PDT reply actions  

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