Competitive Play Resumes

by Dave Clark on Jul 19, 2009 12:38 PM PDT in Sounders: MLS Regular Season

Sounders return to Open Cup and League play this week, they have the opportunity to finally appear in the Open Cup Final, while on Saturday they face the best road team in the league.

Where does Seattle stand heading into their last 12?

Currently Seattle is pacing for a 5th place finish.

This may seem counterintuitive, but due to the Conference ones and twos being the top four and games in hand, if we look at points per match Sounders have the 3rd best performance in the West pacing for 49 points. Chivas edges past with a pace at 51 points. The Fire of Chicago are at 49 points as well.

So while Seattle would be 3rd on the table, they would be 5th in Playoff Seeding.

Houston is again going to be depleted as Richard Mulrooney (Defensive Mid and Right Back) will be out for the Open Cup Match, but they do get Hainault back from Canadian duty, as well as the centerback duo of Boswell and Cameron (unless Cameron plays attacking mid like this week). The Dynamo's depth is again their key to success.

What bodes well for Sounders in League play is the fact that their #1 goal differential is showing a strong correlation to points on the table and only Chivas and Houston really compare defensively (goals against has a stronger correlation to points than goals for). What is poor is the amount of road games in this last 12, with eight forcing Seattle to travel. A key match will be at the Galaxy who seem to have overcome their drawing ways and now have a vaunted attack with Landon, David, Edson and Alecko.

Seattle's Goal Differential indicates that they are leaving a few points on the table (not a surprise) but they should improve a little bit, approaching Houston in success. If CD Chivas USA drops anything at New England, the Rave Green should be in place for a handy little run.

Upcoming this week will be a tiny, very tiny, bit on the Chelsea match, thoughts on the Open Cup semi-final and a look at the Chicago Fire. We (the Alliance Council and Supporters Group leaders) hope to have some announcements regarding a large project which we just started.

Updated stats
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The Color is Rave Green, the direction is North and West, the Goal is the 2011 Club World Cup

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Comments

Hello Dave, I hope that you have had a great weekend. Your post was completed before CUSA lost to New England today. CUSA is in a freefall and has now lost four matches in a row.

Too bad SSFC played them while they were the MLS’ hottest side, as their last win was against the Sounders.

While I think they will right the ship, as they are too talented, they are now on pace for 47.7 points or below Seattle.

This is going to be a dogfight the rest of the way and it is going to be lots of fun.

by Coug1990 on Jul 19, 2009 5:24 PM PDT reply actions

Oddly, that loss increases the correlation between Goals Against and Points on the Table, while lowering the Goal Differential correlation.

And yes, it moves Seattle into second in the West however you do the math.

by Dave Clark on Jul 19, 2009 5:37 PM PDT reply actions

For Play off spots-
top 2 from Eastern and Western conferences
and then next four from point totals?
is goal difference then the first tie breaker to determine the play off spots?

by jd on Jul 19, 2009 6:16 PM PDT reply actions

First tie breaker is actually head to head record, then league goal differential.

by Dave Clark on Jul 19, 2009 9:31 PM PDT up reply actions

Dave, do the stats say which of Houston and LA are likely conference winners, and which is our likely rival for second?

by Prost Amerika on Jul 20, 2009 12:40 PM PDT reply actions

LA just added two wild cards to their data, with Eskandarian and Beckham. Now, what’s funny is that they have some small defensive issues, so it may not be good for them to have added two offensive players at this time.

Seattle is in a contest with Houston for first and the two LA clubs for 2-4.

by Dave Clark on Jul 20, 2009 5:23 PM PDT up reply actions