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Building Depth in a Cap League - Update

Next year the Sounders will compete for four major trophies - Supporters Shield (30 regular season games), MLS Cup (30 + 4 Playoffs), US Open Cup (up to 6) and the CONCACAF Champions League (up to 14). There will be significant issues with balancing the roster and lineups for this run.

The depth of MLS squads is significantly tested with an active roster of 24 players (4 only developmentals) for League Play and Playoffs, and small Disabled List to gain a touch more depth if a player goes down with significant injury. The salary cap is high enough that MLS squads outspend all clubs but the Mexican ones, but considering that if formats stay the same there will be four from Mexico in the CCL they must be targeted. One could argue that Mexico should get an extra slot, but I doubt we will see a major change in the rules. The only change that makes the most sense is that the Caribbean winner goes directly to the Group Stages.

To make things even more interesting, Sounders FC front office will probably decide that they enjoy making money and will bring in at least one, if not two major international clubs in order to get that upper deck open. In creating a "worst case" scenario for depth you can see that if Seattle tries to win a Quadruple next year as an MLS club they would need to play as many as 56 matches in just over a year (CCL ends the April after it starts).

This will be a bigger challenge for Hanauer, Schmid and Henderson than building a competitive expansion team.

Star-divide

It will be vital that Sounders build depth through development of more Rotational and Substitutes than they currently have. Players will have to accept that they may not see league play for a few weeks at a time, while they are getting significant minutes in the other competitions. Seb Le Toux would be a an example of this kind of use in the current season. Seb is a quality sixth attacking player (in a formation that starts five), but his use and performance in non-league matches next season will be vital.

Hanauer will likely need to find the defensive equivalent of Le Toux. Maybe that is Patrick Ianni, with his positions flexibility he would seem that natural fit. He can rest all five of the defensive positions. He and Le Toux are both athletic, young and yet have a decent amount of professional experience.

But that's basically the model that Sounders FC used this year to win the Lamar Hunt US Open Cup. Two strong Rotational players that got a ton of non-league play. Sounders need to probably triple that number. They need six quality players to add to their depth, but they need to do it with both a roster cap, and a salary cap. Adrian has done a fine job of finding MLS level talent that is underpaid, but how does he fit a few more onto the roster?

One thing that we have learned this year is that the Disabled List players can play in non-League matches. We saw one player signed directly to the DL this year, and a few "injured" players played in early US Open Cup matches. While the DL players do count against the Salary Cap, they are bonus players for the Roster Cap.

Seattle for 2010 should likely have two players on roster that sit on the Disabled List purely for non-League play. These two players need to be good enough to start in Open Cup and non-Mexican CCL matches, but probably would only be substitutes in the League play. The player on roster at this time that sticks out the strongest is one Roger Levesque. His grit, determination and positional flexibility fit the role quite well. Roger has also shown that in Open Cup competition he excels. He hasn't shown that in limited League opportunities.

Could Adrian and Co really convince a player that they are a key component to a club, but they would only play in 1/3 of matches in a season? I actually think that several players already know that is their role. They recognize that they are depth and cover, not starting quality. While they seek opportunities to show that they deserve league starts, many of the 20+4+4 recognize that they aren't amongst those 14 key players that appear in nearly every match. These two pseudo-DL players would at least operate under the recognition that they would appear in a majority of non-league matches, getting the opportunity to travel to places like Trinidad, Honduras, Costa Rica and Mexico.

There is another work around as well. Any MLS team can sign an Academy player or two during a season and use them in non-league play. DC United just added a young keeper under these rules. It allows a team to sign and carry two Generation Adidas players from the Academy, and NOT have them count on the active roster until they are used in league games. This means NO cap hit and NO roster Cap hit. Seattle's Academy doesn't start until spring 2010, but if they can find talent quickly and discover the next Nik Besagno (Maple Valley GA level talent, yes he didn't pan out) they could add talent for the late summer and fixture congestion.

These tools only adds depth, and just a little bit. It would be done by following the letter of the MLS law, and likely violate the spirit. Seattle also would need to add one more player of high-end talent (Montero, Hurtado, Alonso, Jaqua level) and do so within the cap. Without significant changes to the Collective Bargaining Agreement, Roster and Salary Cap rules the only way to do this would be through use of Allocation Funds. Seattle should actually look at ways of trading its two lower round picks for the Dollars. Seattle will need top level talent and not depth. Outside of the first round, most players aren't going to contribute within year one, likely not in their second year either.

Another option would be to find a team that needs to cut salary and poach top talent from them. Kansas City and San Jose both might like to do this for pure cost v revenue standpoints. Rumors early in the season were that Bobby Convey was available, trading for him now would enable Seattle to drive the negotiations next season. Toronto on the other hand needs to clear cap room to finally add Julian de Guzman. Seattle could look at the following high dollar players on the Reds squad and try to fit them into the Rave Green for a late run this year and have heavy depth next - Amado Guevara (300k - any attacking role), Carl Robinson (300k - DM, CM), Chad Barrett (~150k - TF), or Danny Dichio (~150k - TF). Sounders FC do have the cap room to add a player of such talent, but melding them into the current squad would be difficult. Robinson would likely be the easiest to find a role for, but Guevara is the most talented in the group.

Houston is the model for how to operate within the dual Caps (Roster and Salary) and still succeed. They use about 15 players in league play while carrying another 2-4 that play primarily in non-league competitions. Kinnear, due to National Team call-ups, manages his talent in such a way that his club lost three key players in the off-season (DeRo, Jaqua and Ianni) and Eddie Robinson to season ending injury and still has a shot at three Trophies. He has been forced to develop depth on an annual basis. Sigi Schmid has been forced to do this a bit with the nagging injuries and suspensions. Next year Seattle will be tested even further in challenging their depth, roster construction and lineup management.

To be as good as Houston it will take several National Team caliber players who are backed up by more than a dozen MLS starting caliber players. Oh, and several US Open Cup winning quality player who are non-starters in League play. There are loopholes in the MLS rules at this time that may exist after the next CBA. If they do, Hanauer and co. must use them to the fullest.

-Having two players of Scott and Leveque's quality as purely non-League players would be a start.
-Adding one major talent through the allocation process is another step.
-Taking advantage of teams that are either trying to build for the future through the draft or by adding a DP is another.
-Lastly Sounders FC must find a GA quality player from its Academy within a mere six months.

Through these methods Seattle takes a talented club with a single trophy and chance at another in 2009 and adds 1 starter, 1 rotational and at least 1 substitute while increasing its roster flexibility for the next transfer window to take advantage of whatever CBA changes occur in the favor of the profitable clubs in the league. While it is difficult to build a club to compete for a quad in MLS' rules, it isn't impossible. It just hasn't ever been done.

The Update

It would seem that the myth concerning roster sizes being too small is again proven to be a myth.

Mexican Teams average 29 players per team at basically 1M$ per player
MLS average 25 players at basically 160K$ per player
The following leagues average 28 (20+4+4 of MLS) players on less on their non-reserve squads - English Premier, English Championship, English League One, Italy Serie B, Argentina Primera A, Chile Primera, France Ligue 2, Belgium Jupiler Pro, Germany Bundes-2, Scotland Premier, Netherlands Eredivisie, Sweden Allsvenskan, Ireland Eircom League, Denmark Superligaen, English League Two, Spain Segunda, Russia Premier Liga, Spain Primera, Norway Tippeligaen, Scotland Second Div, Israel Ligat ha'Al

Sure we could count Reserve Players for the other leagues, but those guys are RESERVES for a reason. Since MLS Developmental Players play in league play regulary (on average) they are included. If one were to include EPL Senior+Reserves+Academy players their average roster bloats (46 players on average), but they also play in 3 different leagues at the same time.

Again, it isn't about the size of the roster, but the depth of talent. That is the continuing challenge facing MLS, and moreso teams like Seattle, Houston, and DC United who make deep runs in three competitions.

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At least we’ll have plenty of good topics to discuss during the offseason.

How picky do you think MLS might be about a player who is on the DL all season, plays non-league games, but shows “no signs of improvement”? Like you said, letter of the law, but not spirit.

Hopefully some changes come out of the new CBA that makes depth a little easier.

by Cornchops on Sep 5, 2009 11:52 AM PDT reply actions  

The designated player money may be up for a new player as well if the rumors of Freddie Ljunberg’s departure this offseason prove to be true.

by Randal Bird on Sep 5, 2009 12:32 PM PDT reply actions  

Except that the rumor is of a LOAN, not a transfer so Ljungberg would be here for the season. Also, it would be stunning if Ljungberg did loan out to an EPL squad, because he wouldn’t be a starter there, and he’d go right back to the very lifestyle that he has said on multiple occaissions he doesn’t like – that of the stalked star.

by Dave Clark on Sep 5, 2009 12:37 PM PDT reply actions  

It’s this kind of thing that will make the CBA negotiations very interesting because even though it’s a single entity, the forces within MLS aren’t at all unified and several ownership groups will be pushing for higher caps in both salaries and rosters, as well as maybe other changes, such as easing the requirements about commercial travel. All in all, the players are going to have some allies on the other side and this CBA should be a big improvement for them over the last one.

By the way, when you say “Houston is the model for how to succeed within the dual Caps (Roster and Salary) and still succeed”, did you mean “work” for the first “succeed”?

by CarlosT on Sep 5, 2009 12:43 PM PDT reply actions  

Carlos, right now I have to assume a slow and steady growth pattern is the system. I actually don’t think that roster size has to increase much if at all, just roster depth and quality. No team plays their 24th man, not anywhere in the world, so MLS doesn’t really need a 28th or 29th man, not if it had a Reserve/Minor League again.

I would prefer a drop back to 18 man senior rosters (bump cap to 3M with 500/50k as max/min) and the addition of a Reserve/Developmental squad of 18 on a seperate cap number (500k with 50/25 max/min. Play the Reserve/Dev within the pro-PDL model if possible, so that it would limited on the number of O-23s, currently at 8 of 26 players with a requirement of 3 U-18s. That would be an increase of 1 Million dollars on the current cap. The DL could be managed by having players “sent down” to the Reserves for health reasons.

But speculating on the future of the CBA could last forever.

Thanks for the edit advice. Fixing it now.

by Dave Clark on Sep 5, 2009 12:45 PM PDT reply actions  

I think the amount of internationals should also be increased. Maybe to 10. With the addition of three new teams in the next two years, there isn’t enough of the highest quality domestic talent. The end of the roster is filled with PDL quality players. If they were of higher quality, then they would be used because of injuries and during early round games. The other thing is the MLS is starting to get noticed and alot of the really good domestic talent are getting bought overseas, further depleating the in-country talent pool.

by TL on Sep 5, 2009 1:37 PM PDT reply actions  

Maybe the thing in the long term is to approach the new owners of the USL and work out a deal with them to break out pro-PDL into its own league, with teams coming from both the current PDL teams and from MLS reserve squads. That would allow USL to extend the current PDL season, which is a ridiculously short three months right now, and also save MLS from having to operate a reserve league themselves. It would also be a benefit for PDL players because they’d be getting more looks from people on MLS staffs than maybe they are now.

On a completely non-Sounders note, are you watching Bahrain-Saudi Arabia right now? Both these teams are playing some quality soccer.

by CarlosT on Sep 5, 2009 1:37 PM PDT reply actions  

TL, I think the solution to talent isn’t to increase the amount of internationals, but first to use all the international slots (MLS had about 60 open), and second to make all nations with Free Trade Agreements with the USA and Canada (must be both as league operates in both nations) count as domestics within the league. This would mean that USA, Canada, Mexico, Jordan, Peru, Costa Rica, Chile and Israeli citizens would all be domestics. Colombia, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Honduras and Panama are all one nation away from qualifying.

And yes I’m watching Bahrain v Saudi. I watch as much Arab soccer as I can. My love of the game has Arab roots. The midfield defense on display isn’t great, but it does lead to some great runs that have been stopped by two keepers that are clearly MLS quality. In fact I would say that probably 15 or so of the players are MLS quality.

Barhain is battering that Saudi keeper with shots.

Jaycee John plays in Belgium by the way. Another of the Bahraini players is in Switzerland

by Dave Clark on Sep 5, 2009 1:50 PM PDT reply actions  

We also have the expansion draft to worry about. Odds are we will lose someone we wish we wouldn’t. There’s an interesting topic for after the season: Who are the 12 players you protect?

by Peter on Sep 6, 2009 1:26 AM PDT reply actions  

I’d like to look for an injury-prone star, ala Ledley King at Spurs.
I can imagine an injury prone player who isn’t going to want to play all the matches and would be perfectly happy looking for 1/3 of the matches who might be available on the cheap.

by sammysounder on Sep 6, 2009 10:55 AM PDT reply actions  

So, taking into account the update you’ve posted, it seems then the major issue really is the salary cap. Basically, once you’re down in the low six figures and below, you’re looking at second division players at best and more likely third division or lower. That isn’t the kind of player that puts a team on their shoulders and carries them through an international tournament. But double the salary cap and now you can be talking about looking for players in the 300-500 K range, and that’s a much higher quality player. Still second division, probably, but a high second division player, and no third division quality players.

In the long term, if MLS wishes to really compete internationally, parity will have to take a hit. Evenly distributing all the talent in MLS across all the teams makes the league very competitive but it means that the top MLS teams will always be deficient in talent when compared to top teams in the region. If the top talent in MLS were concentrated in a small number of teams, then those teams would dominate in the Champions’ League. As it is, the top teams in MLS have a few really good players and then there’s a giant dropoff in quality. Other teams in the region are not so restricted and therefore the top teams in those other leagues will tend to have a more consistent level of quality across the roster.

It’s either that, or MLS will need to spend twenty times more than it currently does to stock all its teams with the same high level of quality. Even then, I’m still doubtful that the top MLS teams wouldn’t still be at a disadvantage compared to other top regional teams.

by CarlosT on Sep 6, 2009 2:13 PM PDT reply actions  

But there are a few ways around the Cap (Allocation Dollars and Generation Adidas). Academy signings are GA by the way. Houston brought on Felix Garcia through the allocation and GA process. They haven’t used him this year (something about finishing high school) but maybe next during the US OC?

Also, Carlos, maybe it could be said that MLS really only has 22 roster slots. That would be the Senior Rosters and the Generation Adidas guys on average. If I do that only Israel, Scotland’s 2nd Div and the EPL Reserve League has fewer players.

I’m guessing that the magic number in a league is in the mid-20s with a Reserve and Academy system.

Notable is that in the other extreme the average Colombian squad carries 39.

by Dave Clark on Sep 6, 2009 2:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

Question Dave. I’m wondering how you know we got cap room. The salary information I’m aware of doesn’t include Boss, Fucito or Gonzalez. It’s safe to assume Boss and Fucito are paid fairly minimally, but I’m not so sure about Gonzalez.

by Peter on Sep 6, 2009 5:51 PM PDT reply actions  

Fucito is a Senior Dev so 33k – but DOES NOT count against the cap as a Developmental.
Boss is probably in the 33k-50k.
Gonzalez on the other hand is an unknown. He may be have taken most of the cap room that the club had.

There probably isn’t a lot of room left. Late September should be the next Union update.

by Dave Clark on Sep 6, 2009 6:10 PM PDT reply actions  

Also, I should warn those who think that this CBA is going to be significantly different. Adrian can’t make moves now thinking it will change next year. The fact is that every year fans think that the Roster rules or CBA is going to change things dramatically.

Last season the most significant change was a cutting of Developmentals from 10 to 4, adding two Senior Roster slots and widening the options for Academy signings. There was a small rise in the salary cap and the Reserve League was eliminated.

While the CBA and Roster Rules will change, it likely won’t be dramatic. While a large change would benefit clubs that are “haves” and so Sounders would favor them, would the LEAGUE be stronger or just the “haves?”

Expect tweaks, not tectonic shifts.

by Dave Clark on Sep 7, 2009 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

No, Adrian can’t make any moves now based on what the CBA will be, but the new CBA will most likely be in effect before the time next season comes around. So, I expect that he’ll be making some contingency plans based on what he thinks could get into the new agreement.

As for what’s best for the league versus what’s best for the clubs, Garber has identified attracting American soccer fans who aren’t fans of MLS as one of the most important challenges for the growth of the league. That means making a case to fans of the EPL, La Liga, Serie A, and many, many others. And honestly, that’s making a case to fans of a dozen or so teams within those leagues where the best talent in the world is assembled. Against that, MLS is offering a collection of teams who are chained together like a prison work crew so no one team can get ahead of the others. Garber is going to have a tough sell as long as that stays the same.

by CarlosT on Sep 7, 2009 10:15 PM PDT reply actions  

My statement was more directed towards those who think that there will be a 2nd DP or another million in the salary cap. These were the dreams last year too, and the cap only went up about 200k.

Carlos, I’m going to look at available trophies, both national and international and which teams have won them. I think you will be surprised, for all the parity that has existed in MLS there aren’t a lot of teams at the top.

by Dave Clark on Sep 8, 2009 5:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

I’ll be interested to see that. From what I’ve garnered, including from your previous posts, the elite of MLS would be DC United, Houston, and maybe LA, for their early successes. But I’m sure the actual data will be instructive.

As for whether drastic changes will happen, I think the timing is right to give MLS a jolt, but like you said, the likelihood is low. Maybe after the planned expansion is over, but at some point they’re going to have to make the leap.

by CarlosT on Sep 8, 2009 4:53 PM PDT reply actions  

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