Offseason roster changes

by Scrupio on Nov 6, 2009 4:46 PM PST

So I know the playoffs aren't even close to being over but it's never too early to start talking about next season's roster. There are bound to be a number of changes from this season's impressive squad so what would people like to see happen? We need to improve our scoring somehow since at times we looked like we were clueless on how this would happen. I think right wing would be a good place to find someone who is dangerous. We'll inevitably have to lose someone useful in the expansion draft, who should we protect beyond the obvious players?

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It seems that of our 5 top defenders (Riley, Marshall, Ianni, Gonzalez, Hurtado), one

will have to be unprotected in the expansion draft. I would vote for unprotecting Marshall, as Ianni is young and shown the potential to be a regular starter.

by redwolf75 on Nov 6, 2009 5:00 PM PST reply actions

Marshall is getting older but he proved to be pretty solid this season

So I’d be sad to see him go but I would understand it.

Here’s a list of guys I’d protect
Keller, Hurtado, Ianni, Riley, Gonzalez, Ljungberg, Zakuani, Alonso, Evans, Le Toux, Montero

I’d be willing to risk Jaqua since I think he’d be fairly easy to replace. Guys like Nyassi, Eylander, Wahl, along with Marshall would be others I’d expect could be picked.

by Scrupio on Nov 6, 2009 5:19 PM PST up reply actions

I completely agree that Marshall was solid this year.

It’s just that he’s nearing that age where soccer players fall off a cliff, while Ianni has a lot of room to grow.

Good protected list — exactly what I’d prefer.

by redwolf75 on Nov 6, 2009 6:36 PM PST up reply actions

What makes Jaqua easy to replace?

I keep reading that he’s just an average MLS talent, but he keeps performing well above average for good teams.

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by Dave Clark on Nov 6, 2009 8:45 PM PST up reply actions

Perhaps not, but when salary is put into consideration I can see him being left unprotected.

by redwolf75 on Nov 7, 2009 12:39 PM PST up reply actions

By which metrics is Jaqua well above average?

I’m not up to snuff on advanced soccer analysis, but I see a very slow guy with an ability to hold the ball up and win things in the air. He can pass adequately but his shot’s not the best thing in the world and he doesn’t have the acceleration or close ball control to go one on one with defenders.

I mean, he’s ok for MLS, but well above average?

by Graham MacAree on Nov 7, 2009 12:52 PM PST up reply actions

There aren't advanced metrics for MLS

There are a few the EPL teams have, but MLS doesn’t make the components public.

But by just using Points per 90 minutes played, Jaqua has been one of the better attacking players in the league this year, and last year.

For his career that number is 0.88. Not great, but his last two seasons have been solid. And while many of his shots aren’t on target at an acceptable rate, he converts more shots to goals than any other regular player for the squad, and at twice the rate of the Sounders opponents. His number is over 19% of shots to goal.

Considering he was primarily used as the secondary foward in a target role this season I think that the following teams would not want Jaqua – LAG, Rapids, Houston, Salt Lake and that’s it. For me that says that he is better than the average MLS forward.

One of the issues that many people run into when judging MLS talent is that they most commonly try to compare it to the soccer they watch much more – EPL, La Liga, World Cup. By that standard Jaqua isn’t good. But comparing him to his peers he is a solid contributor.

Is he overpriced? Possibly, but that’s the nature of a league that pays veterans well, particularly those with even a small amount of Euro-experience.

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by Dave Clark on Nov 7, 2009 1:36 PM PST up reply actions

Points per minute strikes me as a team metric rather than an individual one.

I like percentage of shots per goal, but there obviously needs to be some sort of quality of chance adjustment in there too – I’d guess that Nate’s had a few goals that everyone but Steve Zakuani would score with their eyes closed, but that might be being unfair.

In terms of secondary forward, do we even need one? We’re drifting towards a 4-1-3-1-1 formation, and realistically the place for Jaqua there should be at the spearhead due to his ability to take a long ball, hold it against pressure, and lay it off to another attacking player. Instead, he’s playing right midfield, which is… well it’s weird.

All in all, he’s ok for the team, but he’s not really what I’d consider an asset. There are bigger problems with the roster, though.

by Graham MacAree on Nov 7, 2009 5:45 PM PST up reply actions

Sorry points per 90

is ((2*G)+A)/Minutes*90

I do a Plus/Minus as well, but only for Sounders league matches. I’m trying to get in touch with Elias and the League to get it for the entirity of all competitions for MLS teams.

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by Dave Clark on Nov 7, 2009 5:53 PM PST up reply actions

That would be pretty neat

I have zero knowledge of soccer statistical analysis but I’d love it if you could introduce the rest of us to meaningful numbers used to evaluate players

by Graham MacAree on Nov 7, 2009 5:57 PM PST up reply actions

I'd almost entirely agree, though I'd leave Le Toux unprotected

He didn’t exactly set the world on fire in the second half of the season, he’s probably not got much upside, he has more value to us than he does Philly, and he’s got a decent-sized contract at around $100k. I’d protect Sanna over him. Young, upside, and an attractive contract of $4.99 plus tax.

by Nick S on Nov 9, 2009 1:51 AM PST up reply actions

Someone who excels at set pieces, please.

I love Freddie, but his floaters aren’t cutting it.

by Frempf on Nov 6, 2009 11:54 PM PST reply actions

Frempf

I would agree on Free Kicks, but on corners the Sounders were the best team in the league, and so I would think that the guy who took the most of those should get some credit.

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by Dave Clark on Nov 7, 2009 9:12 AM PST up reply actions