Designated Players - worth their weight in meh
by Dave Clark on Dec 29, 2009 7:23 PM PST
in Sounders: MLS Regular Season
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PrintOnce upon a time I critiqued the man who is now the manager of SBNation's soccer network and his stance on the DP. I ran some with or without you numbers and titled it really poorly. I was learning the whole blogger thing back then, trying too hard to make a dent in the world. In general it was apparent that MLS teams played more open games with a DP for 2008, more goals for, and more against.
But let's look deeper since there seems to be a case of Haves in the League pushing for more DPs. Denz over at RSLSoapbox doesn't like the idea and I understand why. His team won a major trophy without one, and doesn't have the cash to get one. There is also worry about a split between the teams that Have money, and the teams that don't. It could create a divide in some ways similar to what MLB and the EPL have, with that divide between big and small.
But today, I was on the GoalSeattle forums talking out my butt, rather than through evidence. I used my memory of this year, and my memory of the old blog entry to color my post in the thread there about the DP. While yes, this year DP teams were pretty darn good (1.40 PPM, 1.13 GD on average, 2 of 3 major trophies, more in Playoffs, better performance in CCL), but guess what the 3 year history shows?
Yeah, its in the headline.
Yep, MEH. Hard to be an emphatic meh, but it should be.
Whole lot of no real difference. Not by Points Per Match, not by GF, nor by GA. No real difference in major trophies (MLS Cup, Supporters Shield, US Open Cup), no real difference in minor trophies (Conference Champions and SuperLiga).
In fact the only difference is that DP teams tend to be more likely to make the Playoffs, and non-DP teams tend to do slightly better in SuperLiga and CONCACAF Champions League.
| Season | PPM | GF | GA | GD | Major | Minor | Playoffs | NonLeague |
| 2007 DP | 1.44 | 41.80 | 41.40 | 0.40 | 20% | 0% | 80% | 1.44 |
| 2007 | 1.40 | 44.14 | 44.43 | -0.29 | 25% | 25% | 50% | 1.75 |
| 2008 DP | 1.31 | 44.20 | 46.60 | -2.40 | 20% | 20% | 60% | 0.62 |
| 2008 | 1.39 | 41.11 | 39.44 | 1.67 | 22% | 22% | 56% | 1.52 |
| 2009 DP | 1.40 | 37.50 | 36.38 | 1.13 | 25% | 13% | 63% | 1.30 |
| 2009 | 1.28 | 38.71 | 40.00 | -1.29 | 14% | 14% | 43% | 1.17 |
| DP | 1.39 | 41.17 | 41.46 | -0.29 | 22% | 11% | 68% | 1.12 |
| NoDP | 1.36 | 41.32 | 41.29 | 0.03 | 21% | 21% | 49% | 1.48 |
Sure there were awful performances by the LA Galaxy in their first two years of Beckham, and in this year's Red Bull squad. There were also pathetic performances by Toronto, San Jose, and other non-DP teams. Sure, there hasn't been an MLS Cup winner with a DP, but both Shield and US Open Cup have been hoisted by those with a Designated Player (or two).
So, if the on-pitch impact is small, and the off-pitch impact is small (only Beckham moved that needle), what's all the complaining about? Fear. We fear the NASL here in America. We fear copying MLB. We fear the Big 4 of the EPL.
But up until now, the DP hasn't made a dent in any significant capacity. So if the DP is kept, expand it, let the owners have more control. Personally I still want it gone, unless it is done fairly.
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off the pitch
I actually would say that the DP difference is almost off the pitch to be honest. Beckham jerseys sell, Blanco Jerseys sell, and when either comes to town attendance is likely to go up. I should say if you have a big name DP the difference is off the pitch more than on it, since teams like Houston, Columbus, KC, NY, DC United, and TFC see more impact on the pitch since their DP’s aren’t huge names likely to sell a lot of jerseys, but interesting is that 4 of those 6 didn’t make the playoffs this year.
I actually am fine with the league giving every team a second DP spot, as long as it and the first one both count the full amount against the cap ($415,000). That seems fair, if a team wants to go out and spend 6 million dollars a year on two players, they shouldn’t then also be allowed to spend their full cap amount on the rest of their roster as that would simply be unfair. If a team choses to spend 1/3 of their salary cap available funds on two players I would be fine with that. If teams want to be able to spend more money than the cap, then they should have to trade for allocation money.
Oh and for the record RSL has talked about a DP, even to the point of talking contracts but with a new stadium to pay for and need to finally start turning a profit. So for them it comes down to finding a player that they could get, that would by jersey sales, ticket sales, endorsement deals, or whatever else to cover a large chunk of their salary. A smart decision in my opinion.
I know you like your statistics and all, but they don’t help at all in understanding if 2 per team would make an impact. Yes, we know how 1 DP has affected teams in the past 3 years, but that logically does not imply 2 would make no difference. That is the logical equivalent of me saying “if one chopstick is worthless when trying to eat food cleanly then using two chopsticks won’t make a significant difference in my ability to eat food.”
We only know that one individual player does not guarantee a solid team performance. But there is not a logical necessity from the statistics that having two would make no impact whatsoever. Despite that, I do agree that a second DP is something the league should experiment with. It seems hypocritical for anti-DP individuals to say “What’s the point when DPs don’t make a difference?” while also saying “We don’t want one team to be able to have a huge advantage by buying two DPs.” If you believe the first to be true you should not fear the latter statement.
I have consistently argued for a second DP slot, or more
because the risks by just having one means that many teams will not use it.
As for the chopsticks analogy it would apply, if no one had ever had two DPs, but both NY and DC have had two, and LA has in effect had two. Their quality of play hasn’t been better than the league over all.
Also, Jake has a solid point in that those that have been chosen for their on-field influence haven’t on average been as good as they were made out to be.
I am not a Supporter
I am not a Fan
I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
or...
… it means teams haven’t been smart with their DP choices. Just throwing money around won’t solve anything, but sports owners have a proven history of needing economic protection from their own carelessness. Maybe the problem isn’t the DP rule, but the players who have been signed as DP’s
just a thought…
...that's MISTER Keller to you!!!
by malcontentjake on Dec 29, 2009 11:02 PM PST reply actions
yep
I don’t think the sample size so far is big enough to determine anything apart from, if you sign someone to a DP contract who has no business being a DP, then you will not benefit.
Sample size on this
Is what it is.
There have been only 21 DP seasons so far.
But your sentence could be
if you sign someone to a n MLS contract who has no business being in MLS, then you will not benefit.
I am not a Supporter
I am not a Fan
I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
The thing that's missing from this discussion: INTENT
The DP rule was a compromise between big and small market clubs. It was designed to allow teams to spend money to increase ticket sales, but was deliberately designed to that it didn’t just buy results. So they set a high enough cap number that getting a DP would cost you somewhere else on your roster.
What these numbers appear to show is, basically, that they set the cap value about ‘right’ in order to get what they wanted. A DP is neither punitive, nor a shortcut to building a team. A team with a DP has to be about as shrewd to win as a team without one.
By design.
A second DP, same thing—if they design it to be performance-neutral, and they get the cap figure right, that’s what it’ll be. If they design it to be performance-enhancing, it’ll be easy to do that.
'Gentlemen' he said,
'I don't need your organization,
I've shined your shoes,
moved your mountains and marked your cards,
but Eden is burning.
Either get ready for elimination,
or else your heart must have the courage,
for the changing of the guards.'
Balance
The league is always trying to balance the costs and benefits of having the DP.
The cost parity ( or not as you have shown ), with the benefit of money.
How many tickets did Seattle sell after picking up Ljundberg and Keller ( not DP, but DP type ) ? A lot. Jerseys ? More.
Garber, who is a lot like me in his thinking away from the DP, wants to expand the DP…why?…only one reason $$$$$$
Balance II
Oh yeah, meant to put, see Ichiro for great example of paying for off field benefits.
I'm not sure if Ichiro is the best example of this.
He’s payed for production and the production he’s put up has been worth every penny of his contract. Ken Griffey Jr. on the other hand…
Fear
I think the fear you talk about revolves around two things: 1) that one DP (or possibly two) is one thing. But the ability to have three really could begin tilting the competitive balance. And 2) big market teams would have the ability to add two or three REALLY highly priced stars, whereas smaller market sides might have go bargain hunting for their DPs. I’m not saying I agree necessarily. I just know that’s part of the cautious approach.
Do you think?
I agree that as we move more and more towards allowing big market teams to spend more it will lead to a gap with smaller market teams, the only solution I see for that is a much better TV deal which could and should provide a larger chunk of revenue for every team. More exposure would help with getting better sponsors (tired of being the MLM sponsored league- but at least it is the onlinebetting league), eventually that type of money would allow the league to give back control to the teams of things like equipment supliers (how much would Nike or Puma love to get into MLS if they had a better TV deal?).
For me the DP and salary cap issues have to be tied to renewed TV deals with move coverage and a bigger pot of money. I point again to the 50 million dollar gap between all of MLS’s deals and the NHL’s deal with versus, both get almost the same level of viewers on a per game basis, but what a huge gap in revenue. What could each team do with 3 million more dollars in revenue?
There's two parts
One is having a second DP that you didn’t have to trade for. Right now, trading for a DP slot AND allocating that huge block of salary is a killer. There’s almost no situation in which that really makes sense, unless you can get that second slot really cheap.
And then you deal with the ability to have three. Of course, under the current cap value, that’s 1.2 million out of your 2.3 million cap tied up in three guys. Which will usually mean that unless you’ve got some GenAd guys or some real steals, the rest of your roster is gonna suck.
'Gentlemen' he said,
'I don't need your organization,
I've shined your shoes,
moved your mountains and marked your cards,
but Eden is burning.
Either get ready for elimination,
or else your heart must have the courage,
for the changing of the guards.'
rather than more DPs...
I think I’d like to see some economic formula that encourages teams to keep the players they develop. I think I’d rather see something like if a player has been in MLS for X years, and it comes time to renew their contract, only, say, 25% of the increase in salary counts against the cap (up to a maximum of Y dollars over the cap per team). Just shooting from the hip here, so maybe the idea is crazy.
It just strikes me that for the betterment of the league, and American soccer, it’s more important to not lose a Stuart Holden, than it is to take in players like Henry and Anelka looking for one more big payoff while heading into the sunset.
Currently 2 Academy players are allowed to be signed a year
Their contracts don’t count towards the cap, and they don’t count towards the roster limit, but can only be used in non-league competition. Bill Hamid, the DC United Keeper, will likely get any of their starts in the US OC next year.
That is a good step, but the league should have something for not just Academy guys, but any player who broke into the pro ranks within MLS.
I am not a Supporter
I am not a Fan
I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
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