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Top Draft Slots on the Move?

There are few rumors regarding swaps of picks going around the' nets these days. The key actors are Dallas, TFC and the Philly Union.

From Ives we learn that Dallas may want to swap 1 or both of its picks. With two high first round picks on a team already stacked with young talent, they have to look at ways to get a vet or two because they have 6 GA players already. They need help NOW. Seattle may have the opportunity to swap some LB, CB, or CDM depth and the 11 to move up, and this is something into which Hanauer should look. This draft goes about 7 deep with players who can help now. I expect Toronto to be very aggressive in trying to grab one of those picks though.

Star-divide

From the Toronto Sun we learn that maybe Philly doesn't want Danny Mwanga in the end. Oddly they hurt his draft stock a bit through suggesting they would pick him, so he stayed away from the Combine and Tchani, Opara and Bunbury are lighting up the conversations there. Seattle and Real Salt Lake know Mwanga very well, and he looks to be the type that could start and impact in year one as a forward. He's also got a co-national here in Seattle in Steve Zakuani. Philly, as an expansion team, may be in more need of depth than they are of a single young player.

One of the coolest things about twitter is that Soccer Agent Michael Wheeler sometimes gives tidbits on his account that he's discovered as he researches to help his players. In this case it is the success rate of players by draft round or GA players by with college and without, here is a chart with that data compiled.

Category Success
1st Rd 93%
2nd Rd 33%
3rd Rd 50%
4th Rd 20%
Collage GA 90%
Youth GA 36%

The breakdown by rounds are based off of 2009's draft only, but should make it clear that the first round tends to have quality talent, and the other rounds are chancy, and great for either risks picks or younger players. For the GA players he included all, and does consider those that used MLS to move onto first division European leagues as a success.

At MLSDraft.net you can find the daily movings of players based on their performance at the Combine, but don't over relay on Sean or Ives data. The Combine is a four day event this year, and solid or poor performance there should not override the performance of a player during the past season or seasons at the college level.

If I'm Seattle, with their current needs and the nature of the draft I want a first round pick and only 1 of the 2nd or 4th rounders and the other I package for allocation dollars or to move up in that first round. Neagle, Fucito, and some trialists along with 1 lower round pick can compete for a Reserve slot where they won't play. If a U-17/20 player is available with Seattle's second pick I get them.

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Top 5 matter

So I think RSL president Bill Manning hit it on the head when he said “beyond the top 5 players few will make a big impact right away, beyond the top 10 most won’t be 1st year starters”.

So with many players coming out of college or the youth ranks needing 3 years to really develop into MLS level players, if you don’t have huge holes in your lineup, you look for the potential and the physical tools. I think looking at the 2008 RSL draft of Beltran, Horst, and Nimo, one has worked his way into a starting role and the other two have spent time on loans developing and both are ready to start making an impact this year and next year. Tony was in the top 5 and got playing time his first year and in his second year became a fairly regular starter, this year he will likely be the starter of choice in his position.

As a RSL fan with the 16th, 32nd, and 48th picks I expect nothing form the draft other than some bodies that might just develop in the next couple years. Of course if the roster were to move back up to 28, things could be very different.

by denz on Jan 12, 2010 10:36 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

I’m all for Seattle moving up if they can grab either Burnby or Tchani since I think they could contribute from day one. It doesn’t seem like there is much difference between spots 6-11 though so unless one of those guys falls (unlikely after the combine they’ve had) we should just sit tight and grab the guy who projects to be the most talented long term. Getting rid of depth isn’t something we really want to do heading into a year when we’ve qualified for CCL.

by foreleft on Jan 12, 2010 10:41 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

That's a great chart

I wouldn’t know how to explain the odd quirk of greater 3rd round success vs. 2nd rounders. It really can’t be explained by salary, as there’s not significant difference between the two.

by Steve Davis on Jan 12, 2010 12:09 PM PST reply actions   1 recs

What does he mean by success rate?

The third round has a rate of 50%, but there 15 picks per round last year. Did he not include GA picks for the draft picks?

by PeterJH on Jan 12, 2010 10:55 PM PST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

I will reach out to him and see if he answers

But my guess is that players that were drafted into MLS but instead play in Europe would be ignored in this study. The primary example is Mike Grella who is a rotational with Leeds, but was drafted in the 3rd rd.

I am not a Supporter
I am not a Fan
I am a Sounder
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by Sounder At Heart on Jan 13, 2010 8:15 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Gaschk channels his inner Clark

Looks at last 4 #1s

I would say its a 50/50 chance at that point

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I am not a Fan
I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Sounder At Heart on Jan 12, 2010 6:22 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

I would certainly support moving up

especially as only our #1 pick got any significant playing time last year, and one of our later picks maybe isn’t even with the team anymore. With the roster size, it’s hard to develop players for as long as they need, so maybe it’s better to push for players that can contribute right away.

I wonder how a team would fare if they always traded away one or two of their 2nd-4th round picks. Just make it a policy. It would be interesting to see if they could get a good return on those picks, and have a deeper roster at the same time.

by Cornchops on Jan 12, 2010 10:03 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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