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How strong is MLS compared to other Leagues? Updated Methodology x2

An intriguing topic to so many who follow MLS is just how good is this league? I commonly refer to it as between the 15-25 range, but that is a wide range, and highly subjective. Without the Holy Grail of statistics finding a unified number across leagues though can there be an objective study on league strength rather than the classic arguments centered on the top third of a league or its middle third?

Within UEFA they use the coefficient system, which has strengths, and some weaknesses but with the interplay brought about by the Champions League and the Europa League it is a decent system, but where do CONMEBOL, CONCACAF, and the AFC fit into that? The Coefficient system also ignores second and third leagues, which in England, Germany and Spain can be pretty damn strong.

So I thought to myself, why not judge a league's strength by how many of its members are likely to be at South Africa? At this point we only have estimates, so of course I will have to update when 23 man rosters are announced, but for now I used only those players on wikipedia with 10 plus caps for all 32 teams. Sure there are some leagues with over-representations due to the closed system that their national leagues use, but this should be a fair estimate, that will get stronger next June.

Number one is very obvious and needs no massaging of the numbers. The Barclay's Premier League will have more representation than any other league. Not just because of England, the EPL will have players on 22 national teams come the World Cup and by the measure of 10+ CAPs has 69 total at this time.

The next three are to be expected, though in a slightly different order than some would assume - La Liga at 49, Bundesliga at 43 and Serie A at 40.  The big four are clearly the Big Four. France comes in fifth, and then the realm of caveats starts as leagues with heavy representation from a single nation take the next 9 slots.

MLS has that same caveat but sits at 17th, just below the Championship. After the recent performances by MLS vets in Serie A and the EPL - Donovan! - that seams to be fair, even with the caveats. Sure this method could be tweaked by applying FIFA ranking, or SPI. It could be done including the next 20 teams that didn't qualify, but for a single Saturday afternoon it seems a good place to start. Full data below the break.

Star-divide

Nation

Total

EPL

69

La Liga

49

Bundesliga

43

Serie A

40

Fr Lg 1

26

Japan

20

Mexico

17

Netherlands

13

Portugal

13

Australia

13

Greece

12

Honduras

12

North Korea

11

So Korea

10

Russia

9

Eng Champ

9

MLS

8

Turkey

8

2 Bundes

5

South Africa

7

Swiss

6

Chile

6

Argentina *

5

Israel

4

Belgium

4

Poland

3

Algeria

3

SPL

3

Denmark

3

Norway

2

Colombia

2

Paraguay

2

Brasil *

2

China

1

Qatar

1

Tunisia

1

Ukraine

1

Uraguay

1

Austria

1

Cyprus

1

 

* I think that Brazil and Argentina are dramatically underrepesented as they are sell-on leagues of the first order.  Brasil and Argentina are the only top footballing nations whose players do not stay home at any significant rate.

It is notable that using the 10+ CAP benchmark 40 leagues are likely to be represented at the World Cup. I intend to revisit this when the 23 Man rosters are fully out, and then I will count every player.

Below is the update that uses a National Team's Soccer Power Index rating as a weighting for its players, so a league with 10 players from Brazil is better than a league with 10 players from North Korea. The caveats for Brasil and Argentina still exist. This change moves MLS down 2 overall, North Korea goes down as well, which it should. Next step is to double the number of national teams that are included overall.

Nation

Total

EPL

5411.6

La Liga

4037.3

Bundesliga

3299.7

Serie A

3070.9

Fr Lg 1

1987.5

Japan

1414.9

Mexico

1307.1

Portugal

1032.1

Netherlands

1018

Honduras

901.2

Greece

898.6

Australia

814.3

So Korea

701

Russia

632.8

Turkey

632.3

North Korea

627

Eng Champ

618.8

MLS

593

Chile

484.4

Swiss

445

South Africa

443.8

Argentina

391.8

2 Bundes

371.4

Belgium

308.1

Israel

280.6

Denmark

230.4

SPL

228

Poland

215.9

Algeria

195.6

Brasil

160.8

Colombia

157.4

Paraguay

154

Norway

140.7

Uraguay

80.4

Cyprus

72.6

Tunisia

72.5

Ukraine

72.3

Austria

68.2

Qatar

65.2

China

57

 

I have now gone with all of the World Cup teams and the next 32 best teams using SPI (Morocco was the final one to make the cut, and only Costa Rica was added from CONCACAF). Also now the SPI Rating (not ranking) is keyed in as a point total per player. Closed leagues like North Korea, Iran and to some extent Japan are still have their strength over represented. There is also the issue with Brasil and Argentina. To me it is notable that when looking at these 64 teams the only second division leagues that have players are the Championship and Bundes 2.  MLS sits 24th, barely behind Israel, Egypt and Belgium while ahead of the two Koreas and Scotland.

Nation

Total

EPL

8246.6

Bundesliga

4982

La Liga

4682.1

Serie A

3793.5

Fr Lg 1

3338.7

Russia

2187.3

Turkey

1952.7

Mexico

1526.5

Japan

1414.9

Netherlands

1314.5

Greece

1266.6

Ukraine

1118.6

Portugal

1107

Iran

1078.4

Eng Champ

1057

Honduras

901.2

Ecuador

889.2

Norway

871.8

Australia

814.3

Israel

778.8

Egypt

748

Belgium

736.7

MLS

735.9

So Korea

701

North Korea

627

SPL

579.8

Chile

554.8

2 Bundes

509.6

Argentina *

465.9

Colombia

452.5

Swiss

445

South Africa

443.8

Costa Rica

435

Bolivia

418.8

Tunisia

416.9

Poland

355.4

Venezuela

352

Denmark

304

Austria

293.5

Saudi

279.4

Romania

276.4

Paraguay

224.4

Cyprus

213.5

UAE

209.6

Algeria

195.6

Brasil *

160.8

Croatia

151.4

Uraguay

80.4

Sweden

75.2

Guatemala

72.5

Czech

69.1

Macedonia

68

Gabon

68

Congo

68

Oman

68

Morocco

66.4

Qatar

65.2

China

57

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Numberic order?

How come The Netherlands, with twelve, is ahead of Portugal and Australia, with thirteen each? I also notice that Russia, with eight, is ranked ahead of the British Championship, with nine. If those rankings are in error, it looks like the U.S. would move up to a tie for 16th.

by regnaD kciN on Jan 16, 2010 5:55 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Higher the number the better

As it is the number of players with 10+ CAPs likely to be at the World Cup.

I am likely to tweak this by listing top 50 SPI nations that are not going to be at the World Cup as that should better represent 2nd, 3rd, and 4th tier Euro leagues better.

You also caught an error as South Africa’s national team was accidentally deleted.

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by Sounder At Heart on Jan 16, 2010 6:07 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Corrected now

Good catch

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by Sounder At Heart on Jan 16, 2010 6:12 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Next steps

I think the next steps are to double the number of nations that I include in the selection critieria. I will use the Soccer Power Index. This would add Russia, Croatia, Ukraine, Czech, Sweden, Colombia, Turkey, Egypt, Switzerland, Costa Rica and 22 other nations. This should add more granualarity to the data.

Another step would then be to assign points to a player for representing a nation (Points = 100-SPI ranking) and then grant those points to the league based on number of players from said team in said league. South Africa’s 3 players would grant the EPL 105 points as their NT is ranked 65th. Brazil sole representative in the EPL would grant it 99 points. If these were the only two nations in the EPL it would have 204.

Because strength of nation represented should move the needle. North Koreans playing in Japan shouldn’t help the J-League, while an English national team member playing in MLS should be of a bit more importance. Just an example.

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by Sounder At Heart on Jan 16, 2010 10:42 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

You may have something here

I think you could come up with something pretty simple that will work as a decent indicator. Something like the total number of caps for a league, where a cap for a higher ranked country is weighted heavier. Very good train of thought you got going here.

by PeterJH on Jan 17, 2010 12:33 AM PST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Who are the ones from the MLS?

If I understand your requirements correctly, I’m not sure how the MLS is limited to 8.
Hejduk
Clark
Holden
Ching
Donovan— I count for MLS since the expectation is that he’ll return.
Quaranta
Bornstein
Conrad
Marshall
Pearce
Beckerman
Kljestan
Cunningham
Casey

And that’s just US players. You can also count Beckham and Gonzalez safely I think. Sure, a couple of these guys won’t be on the final roster, but I have twice as many as you do apparently.

by MMClark on Jan 17, 2010 3:20 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

For the USA I used the last qualifier

Rather than the current 30 man camp, and recall that at this point I said 10+ CAPs.

I counted both Beckham and Donovan as MLS players, as it is the league that controls their contracts and gets them 50% or more of a year.

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by Sounder At Heart on Jan 17, 2010 8:41 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Still didn’t answer my question.

Any every single person on my list does have 10+ caps.

by MMClark on Jan 17, 2010 2:02 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Gonzalez

Hasn’t gotten capped in a while, and so is not a current squad member.

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by Sounder At Heart on Jan 17, 2010 2:09 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

As I said I used recent call-ups

Not, current squad for the USA

That criteria misses Bornstein, Conrad, Marshall Pearce and Cunningham who were in the 18 v Denmark had have 10+ CAPs. Beckerman wasn’t in the 18 for that match.

The US National team may have the most movement when I redo this at the World Cup, but it may not help MLS, when you look at the likely 23, how many of those will be current MLS players?

Holden is getting an offer in the EPL, so he was counted there.

Massaging the methodology as applied to the US National team could cause MLS to rise up to 20th from its spot in 26th, but that is more due to how tight the league are in said range.

Trying to estimate the roster 6 months out is what caused the method used, so we could see some shift with the official rosters (when I won’t be using a 10 CAP minimum)

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by Sounder At Heart on Jan 17, 2010 2:28 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting

Definitely a new and unique way to think about it.

Another issue that I don’t know how you get around – Christiano Ronaldo carries the exact same weight as Jonathan Bornstein. So if Ronaldo decided to come to the MLS, and by some miracle Bornstein was acquired by an SPL club, the rankings would not change. With your system, the MLS would not become any “stronger” by bringing in Ronaldo. But in reality, I think the public perception of MLS would be that it was stronger if that example were to occur.

by ShatzMarinara on Jan 17, 2010 7:20 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

An excellent point

That can only be made up through the weighting method I mention above and by increasing the number of teams that I included.

A league would get marginally better overall if it adds a single player that is better than it loses, but the impact shouldn’t be great.

So yes, weighting is vital.

I think I can get the weighting included more easily than doubling the number of nations included in the list.

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by Sounder At Heart on Jan 17, 2010 8:44 AM PST up reply actions   0 recs

There's an odddity happening here hurting MLS

I would guess there’s a lot more Americans with 10+ caps playing over seas than Australians. I think if an American gets that number of caps they then are of the caliber they draw interest. Just from watching some Australian soccer on FSC I think it’ safe to say it’s not at the same level as MLS.

I’m not sure it will make much difference, but I’d be curious to see how the numbers would pan out if you did it on total caps instead of requiring 10 caps.

by PeterJH on Jan 17, 2010 1:08 PM PST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Using only active rosters in this case

Most of the A-League’s rankings actually come from New Zealand players, not Aussie. Aussies play as well in Russia, Greece and the Championship as well.

Also I’m only using active National Team players, rather than any active professional with national team experience. MLS draws most of its national team players from outside of the WC+32 – Canada and the rest of the also rans in CONCACAF. It also gets retirees. In Asian Champions League Australia has fared decently and are ranked 6th by the AFC for their seeding within that tournament.

MLS would be ranked 2nd if CONCACAF used a similar system. Basically tied with PR, CR and Honduras.

When the World Cup rosters are official I will do this again, and will count only the 23 players roster – whether 0 or 200 CAPs,

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by Sounder At Heart on Jan 17, 2010 1:22 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe you need to expand the number of sides

I think NZ is a weaker side than a lot of the CONCACAF also rans. I think FIFA ranks Nz something like 82, well below Canada and Jamaica.

by PeterJH on Jan 17, 2010 8:59 PM PST via mobile up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting

I like the idea and I think with a bit more tweaking this method could be a useful tool for determining league strength. The most interesting aspect is that USMNT aspirants going to Denmark and Switzerland may actually be taking a step backwards by not going/staying in MLS. And that Turkey, Japan and Honduras may be significant steps up from MLS.

by DCUnited on Jan 17, 2010 4:15 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

Japan and Honduras

Are really close to being made up of members of just1 national team. While Turkey has members of 12 national teams.

Leagues at the top have many national teams with members playing in their league.

MLS will make more strides when it gets more players from CONCACAF nations, and non-retiring CONMEBOL and UEFA nats players

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by Sounder At Heart on Jan 17, 2010 4:54 PM PST up reply actions   0 recs

Appreciate the post

Thanks for all the work, I enjoyed and learned from it.

But because of your restraints you are missing quite a bit. You are only looking at 417 players ( approx ) which gives you 13 players per team. Take the US for instance, how many of those starters are playing in MLS…not many. How many of the backups which you seem to be excluding…a lot.

Another thing to consider is how strong your national team is and what percentage of you players in your league come from that country.
For instance, the German national team has been one of the top three, so if the German league is all German they are artificially maxed out. A German player not able to make the German national team could make the England team, but is not counted, but the English player who is not as good does count.

by Charles J on Jan 19, 2010 7:37 AM PST reply actions   0 recs

Apples and Oranges

I can’t help but point out that the MLS single entity model, the enforced mediocrity at the center of their drive for club parity, and the fact that the league is majority owner of every club, has to throw a monkey wrench into the methodology somewhere.

Not to mention, of course, that every Sounder fan should be upset that the MLS system does not allow their world class level of support to be translated into building a world class club.

Enforced mediocrity. It’s whats for dinner.

by soccerreform.us on Jan 23, 2010 7:51 PM PST reply actions   0 recs

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