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MLS needs relocation, not expansion

Editor's note: Can't say I agree with all the findings, but there is lots of interesting stuff in here that is worth discussing on the front page. - Jeremiah

K61's note: If you enjoy hyperbole and arrived here by following a link from FakeSigi, you may also enjoy how I take literary license in response.

With the announcement a few months ago that Montreal will get the league's 19th team in 2012, the recent activity with the New York Cosmos name rights, and Don Garber saying the league will eventually be larger than 20 teams, I think it's obvious that MLS has no intention of slowing down the rate of expansion.  Some point to the recent expansion success in Toronto, Seattle, and Philadelphia (and the likely similar success of Portland and Vancouver next year) as evidence of a successful league.  Unfortunately, the reality could actually be that MLS is simply ignoring its failures by focusing on these few successes.

The Seattle Times ran a great front page spread (not the front page of the sports section, the real front page) detailing the success both on and off the field of Sounders FC over the past two years with many supporting graphs and data tables.  As I absorbed the article this morning over breakfast, my mind turned to a topic I've been pondering for a while... is it healthy for the league to continue expanding?

After the jump, a brief discussion on revenue sharing, a ranking of teams based on performance off the field, and a call for #relocationnotexpansion (ala #tropiesnotfriendlies)...

Star-divide

It's well known that the league is built on a revenue sharing model where all of the teams are part of a single entity.  Don Garber went so far as to preach this business model to the leagues of Europe about a year ago.  I've tried to research how this works and found a number of blogs, etc. that claim facts, but I'm not sure how reputable they are.  For example, one likely true post explains that clubs have to give the league 30% of their ticket revenue, 100% of their national media revenue, and 100% of their national sponsorships.  This money is used to pay salaries for all teams within the salary cap (ie. excluding DP salaries) and allocation dollars.  The clubs get to keep the rest such as concessions, parking, and local media revenue.  Here are some links with more (and sometimes differing) facts: 1, 23, and 4.  There's also Fraser v. MLS which revealed a number of (now stale) facts about the league's revenue sharing. 

The important thing to realize about revenue sharing is that, as it sits right now, only a few teams produce more than they consume while the majority of the clubs are still in the red.  The Seattle Times article mentioned that only Toronto and Seattle are profitable this year.  Forbes did a study of the league in 2007, which concluded that Dallas, LA, and Toronto were the only profitable teams that year.  With more and more expansion teams raising eyebrows, how long will the league continue to allow poor performing teams (at the gates, not on the field) to continue looting the money produced by the more successful teams?  If I were a restaurant owner with 5 locations, and one of them consistently underperformed, I'd be stupid to keep it running at the expense of the other 4.  I'd be better off looking for a new location and moving the staff there, or just closing the under-performing location.  The sooner MLS figures this out, the sooner they can pay off all the debt they've built up since 1996.

It's not like relocation in MLS is some crazy new idea.  The team currently in Houston was relocated there from San Jose in 2006 because they couldn't secure a stadium in San Jose (more on that below).

Now that the regular season has ended, we can finally get the full picture of how teams have fared this year.  The WSJ recently covered the growth of MLS attendances in recent years.  While much of what I'm about to say (and conclude) is based on buts in seats numbers, there are more metrics to consider than just that.  The problem is most other metrics (like television ratings, merchandising sales) aren't publicly available.  However most of them, I believe, will have trends that mirror a club's attendance numbers.

So, without further ado, I'm going to try to group the teams into a quasi-power ranking based on their level of business value and production.  Remember, this has almost nothing to do with their performance on the field.

The Profitable Teams

  • Seattle - Averaging 30,943 last season and 36,173 this season, no one can argue that this is the top performing team in the league.  MLS would love to have 15 other teams doing this well.
  • Toronto - Their stadium only seats 22,000, but it's been sold out since they showed up.  There were listed as profitable in 2007 and they're still profitable today.  Proof that bad performance on the field does not necessitate bad performance at the gates.

Teams Showing Promise

  • LA Galaxy - While they were listed as profitable in 2007, they're conspicuously absent from recent reports.  Maybe they still are.  Their attendance average this season was 21,183 which has been on a slow decline since their high of 26,009 in 2008 (when Beckham arrived).  They're still second in the league behind Seattle.
  • Philadelphia - According to the Seattle Times article I mentioned above, Philadelphia came in second in the league in merchandising revenue.  They averaged 19,254 fans per game and PPL Park only holds 18,500.  This is because their first two home games were played at the much bigger Lincoln Financial Field.  The third super successful expansion team in a row after Toronto and Seattle.  No mention yet of profitability for the team, but they seem to be doing very well with what they've got.
  • New York - The new stadium has provided a big boost (something I'm sure KC, Houston, and San Jose will hope to repeat) for this team.  They're at 18,441 for the season, up 47% from last season and up 15% from 2008 when they made the playoffs last.  They have an ownership group willing to go after big names, so I don't expect it will be long before New York is listed among the profitable.
  • Salt Lake - Salt Lake puzzles me.  This season they averaged 17,095, a boost of just 4% after winning the MLS Cup.  Salt Lake was the last of the mediocre expansions (San Jose, Houston, and Chivas) before MLS expansions started to really pay off with Toronto, Seattle, Philly, and soon with Portland and Vancouver.  Denz over at RSLSoapbox claims that they'll be in the black for 2010.  That would be nice.

Improvement Needed - help is on the way

  • Kansas City - They've been stuck in 10,385 capacity CommunityAmerica Ballpark for the past few years and have been floundering at capacity that whole time.  They'll finally get their own SSS next season and it will be relatively close to the city (much closer than Colorado or Dallas).
  • Houston - They too have their own stadium on the way (to be shared with TSU football though) and it's also going to be in an urban location.  Problem is, their current home, Robertson Stadium, seats 32,000 and they haven't come close to filling it regularly.  Their average this season was only 17,310 which is still down from their first season in Houston when they averaged 18,935 in 2006.
  • San Jose - As I stated above, this city lost their team in 2006 because they wouldn't build an SSS.  However, in 2008, MLS expanded back into San Jose with the promise of a soccer-specific-stadium to come.  Those plans still have not materialized yet, but progress is being made toward a 15,000+ SSS near the airport.  Until then, they're stuck in Buck Shaw Stadium with a capacity of just 10,300.

Improvement Needed - no help in sight

  • FC Dallas - According to the 2007 Forbes report, Dallas was profitable that year.  That was also the year that their average attendance peaked at 15,145.  It's been downhill ever since, and this season they were the worst attended team in the league at 10,815 (excluding San Jose and KC who's stadiums don't allow for more).  My guess is they're no longer profitable.  Pizza Hut Park was built far outside of Dallas (like Dick's in Colorado) and I think that isn't helping matters at this point.  Because they were apparently once profitable with only marginally better attendance, this club gets a pass from being in the bottom.  I think the soccer complex surrounding Pizza Hut Park generates money that other clubs don't have which makes their situation a bit different than the ones below.
  • Chicago - They've been floundering around 16,000 for the past decade (15,814 in 2010).  Their experiments with DPs don't seem to be paying off so far.

Relocation Fodder

  • D.C. United - Attendance has gotten steadily worse since their high in 2007 when they averaged 20,967.  They're now at 14,531.  Their stadium is old and decrepid and there's absolutely no sign of a new one coming.
  • Colorado - I've read several reports (complaints) that Dick's Sporting Goods Park is just too far outside of Denver.  Couple that with the fact that they're competing with the Rockies, Broncos, Nuggets, and Avalanche for sport entertainment dollars, and it's no surprise that they've been hovering around 13,000 for the past decade (13,328 in 2010).  A DP might help, and it might not.  Hard to tell.
  • Columbus - 2 Supporters Shields, an MLS Cup, and a deep run in the CCL in the last two seasons.  How has it affected attendance you might ask?  They're at 14,330, pretty much exactly where they've been at for the last 6 years (+/- 500).  They're in the oldest SSS in the nation and their ownership is getting restless.  Of these bottom 5, they seem like a very likely move candidate.
  • New England - No stadium of their own in site.  2010 attendance is at 12,987.  The best average they could muster was in 2008 17,580.  They're the last team in the league with an ownership group who won't even try to hide the gridiron lines during football season.  The Kraft ownership was in MLS from the beginning, so there's probably a lot of reverence around the Revs in that regard.  They'll probably be allowed to stay on the gravy train provided by the top performing clubs for as long as they like because of this.
  • Chivas USA - They've become the insignificant (link fixed) LA team.  As an expansion team in 2005, they enjoyed 17,080 average attendance and in 2006, they peaked at 19,840.  It's been downhill ever since.  They've been playing second fiddle to the Galaxy since the beginning, and LA, as big as it is, is a one fiddle town for soccer.

So I'm sure I made a number of enemies with some of my comments towards the bottom.  Remember, none of this is about on-the-field performance.  It's all about how much each team contributes to the pot of shared revenue.  As far as I can tell, only a few teams currently contribute more than they take.  For soccer to be successful long term, this must change.

Therefore, I propose that the league stop the expansion at 19 (or maybe round it off at 20) and start relocating some of these poor performing teams to different markets.  Detroit, St. Louis, Miami, and Tampa are all markets who have been interested in the past (or even had teams previously).  At this point, if any of those places are willing to pony up a stadium in an urban location, I think any of the bottom 5 would be better off with a new start in a new market with a new stadium.

And so, may I suggest a new Twitter meme for the off-season: #relocationnotexpansion.

K61's note: Part 2 of this post can be found here and part 3 here.

FanPosts only represent the opinions of the poster, not of Sounder at Heart.

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Interesting. I like your numbers, but I'm not sure about the process.

-Would owners of teams performing poorly financially be given the chance/nudge to move, or would they lose their teams to owners in another city? I’m not sure if MLS would agree to either.
-Do teams like Dallas and Denver have lease agreements that would keep them in their stadiums?

As a Sonics fan, the whole notion of relocation stings a bit, but I could see the MLS not wanting to throw profits down the drain or water down the product too much more.

by yuniform on Oct 24, 2010 10:22 PM PDT reply actions  

Agreed

There are a number of factors that could handcuff teams to their city, stadium, etc. I’m simply trying to point out that there are a few teams ripe for relocation. Whether that means that the owners sell the teams to new owners in different cities, or the league pressures the current owners to get on with it and move the teams, it doesn’t matter much. I just think the league needs to start looking at relocation as an option instead of expansion.

by K61 on Oct 24, 2010 10:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

Chivas USA only has support

from Guadalajara fans who see it for the U.S kids to play in. As an L.A native, the franchise targets the Hispanic community. if they do relocate it has to be to a place where a large population has Hispanic futbol fans, which no other city has.

"The ability to speak does not make you intelligent"- Qui-Gon Jinn

by tomkanti on Oct 24, 2010 11:11 PM PDT reply actions  

No large Hispanic futbol population?

Except Phoenix…which has been clamoring for a team.

by Glenn Darby on Oct 25, 2010 6:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

That would be a good city.

With the Cardinal stadium ready to use as well. But the recent immigration issues in AZ have caused California businesses to stay away unless needed, including sports teams.

"The ability to speak does not make you intelligent"- Qui-Gon Jinn

by tomkanti on Oct 25, 2010 7:16 AM PDT up reply actions  

Or San Diego

Editor/writer at Sounder at Heart, North American soccer editor SB Nation and of course follow me on Twitter

by Jeremiah Oshan on Oct 25, 2010 8:17 AM PDT up reply actions  

agreed

San Diego makes the most sense.

by Shawn Gillogly on Oct 25, 2010 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

If a new football stadium is built

Which is a BIG if, then an MLS team would make a lot of sense in San Diego. Maybe the “San Diego Sockers de Chivas FC”.

by lemonverbena on Oct 25, 2010 4:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

I certainly hope that if CUSA relocates...

….that they will ditch the Chivas brand. I can see why they tried it, but I don’t think it’s a winning idea. Maybe something like El Tri USA could work (although I’m not sure I would advocate it), but associating so closely with a specific team from Mexico, even the most popular team in Mexico, just seems like a bad idea with the benfit of hindsight.

by ubelmann on Oct 25, 2010 10:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

My take if relocation was forced:

DC should stay. As painful as those numbers are, and as ugly as the stadium is, the league would not be the same without DCU.

Colorado could potentially move a bit East and start up in STL. Would probably have to change the name, but seems like it could work.

Columbus might be good with a short hop. Many Cincy or Cleveland? Expansion in Detroit would also likely help Columbus out, unless Columbus becomes Detroit.

New England is another that would make the league seem weird without it. I would advocate for a FO which cares about putting together a quality on-field experience. Moving out of Gillette is priority, and a short move might be good. Maybe this team becomes the Cosmos.

Chivas will probably be sold before it moves, though if its goal of attracting a primarily Latino fanbase holds, there are some places it could go. Texas might work, perhaps Austin or San Antonio? And I am guessing that if they go beyond just Mexicans, they could go after the wider Latino community in Florida.

This all being said, my guess is that for the image of the league, and its long-term health, it will be better to ease off revenue sharing to a point where the owners of the have-nots are forced by normal market forces to fix their issues. That would mean moving, selling, or focusing on running a professional and successful soccer franchise.

by agtk on Oct 25, 2010 12:50 AM PDT reply actions  

I would like to clarify

that I do not advocate that any of these teams move. Their fans deserve better. My comments are from the perspective of what might make sense if Garber started forcing teams that were not turning profits to sell and/or relocate.

The fans of all these teams deserve great gameday experiences; I know I am spoiled. But if the teams are not performing, the stands continue to look and be empty, and the team is not generating revenue, relocation should be in the discussion as a possible solution. It worked out for Houston, and hopefully SJ gets back on track. Losing the Sonics was painful, and I would not suggest any fanbase should go through that without there being extremely good reasons for doing so.

by agtk on Oct 25, 2010 10:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

One other link I forgot to work into the prose

When Seattle announced a refund for the LA game, the league FO responded very clearly. MLS president Mark Abbott stated that this was a one-time occurance and that neither the Sounders nor any other team would do this again. That definitely lends credibility to the 30% revenue sharing with the league. If the total cost was over $1 million (as estimated), then the decision to refund could have cost the league over $300,000. That’s enough to get the league president to address it directly (as he did).

by K61 on Oct 25, 2010 1:02 AM PDT reply actions  

No, this is a little different

TFC announced a price hike for season tickets, and then changed their mind based on the backlash. In that short interval where the prices were at the higher level, some fans had renewed their tickets already. They’re giving a refund to those fans so that they don’t pay more than those who bought after they changed their mind on the price.

This is different because the Sounders refund was after money had been paid and the product delivered. I’ll be very surprised if this is ever allowed to happen again in MLS. I would expect that Mark Abbott and co. have codified this in some bylaw so that this can never happen again.

by K61 on Oct 25, 2010 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

To further clarify

they eliminated two games from the season ticket package. So you don’t get the tickets, and if you paid for them you get that money back.

The Sounders “refund” is getting a free game next year. If the TFC fans still want to see those two CL games, they can still buy them, and the league will still get money from them. I believe that is the key difference.

by agtk on Oct 25, 2010 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

Gotcha, thanks

I glossed through the story about it, I should have kept my mouth shut :)

by chrisperry1983 on Oct 25, 2010 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

I agree MLS needs to do some relocation...

1st, I’m not a fan of the MLS to Canada train. It was never the goal of MLS to promote Canadian soccer. Toronto was a sweetheart deal when the league needed a shot in the arm. But Montreal and Vancouver grate on me. We should be looking for potential US markets, not making the Canadian National Team stronger with our infrastructure.

2nd, on the list itself. I think the problem with the Rapids is they’ve never had a consistently good and attractive product. Denver has a lot of alternatives, you have to make a serious commitment to competing. The Rapids haven’t, really. They’ve made a commitment to being good enough to scam the system. But close or far from the town center, they have a brand new facility. I don’t think relocation is an option for them. And Denver is a large enough market to support them. The problem is competitiveness and the dual football they played for so long.

Kansas City: I don’t see how this is in the “help coming” list. KC has been a disaster since it began. It enjoys no civic support—it’s not even listed in the city’s Chamber of Commerce for sporting attractions, while the Jayhawks are! The stadium is honestly good money after bad. And if there’s ONE team that ought to have been relocated all along, it was them.

Chivas: Down to San Diego

San Jose: Putting a 2nd team there was a debacle waiting to happen. Not one of the Don’s better decisions.

I honestly don’t see the Red Bulls ever being ‘profitable.’ They’re too heavily subsidized and willing to spend. That said, there’s more to success as a sporting franchise than making money.

New England’s attendance tends to fluctuate with team performance. And the league wouldn’t exist without Lamar Hunt and Robert Kraft. Hunt’s gone and his family doesn’t show the same passion for the sport. Kraft is still in, and he’s smart enough to figure out what he needs to do. Unless/until he’s out, relocation shouldn’t be discussed with them.

by Shawn Gillogly on Oct 25, 2010 5:09 AM PDT reply actions  

Red Bulls and KC responses

KC has been floundering for a while at or near capacity of their small stadium. Their new stadium will be 80% bigger and will be in an urban area. They’re lining themselves up for success here despite their past failures. I’m willing to give them a few more years given the movements they’re making right now.

In the context of this blog post, Red Bull not being profitable in the wholistic sense isn’t a big deal, and it’s purely up to them whether it matters. I just want teams that are getting enough fans through the gates to be making that 30% they have to give to the league equal-to-or-greater-than the salary cap money they get from the league. The big names they’re bringing in are being paid for out of Red Bull’s checkbook, not the league’s, and therefore the league as a whole can only benefit from what Red Bull is doing. Contrast this to what FC Dallas is doing, and I’d take 10 more Red Bulls than even one more FC Dallas.

by K61 on Oct 25, 2010 9:35 AM PDT up reply actions  

We don't disagree

on the Red Bulls. That’s why I said there’s more to a sports franchise than profitability. I don’t like the way the Metrohacks/Red Bulls have been given every opportunity to game the system. I’ve also disliked this with the Galaxy. It creates a real sense of, “Everyone else has this set of rules, but they get another.” Or in the “socialist soccer” metaphor often used about MLS, “They’re more equal than the others.”

On KC, I live in SW Missouri now. I don’t share the optimism. The team stayed here because Lamar Hunt was a patron of the sport and the league. But on the merits it should’ve been gone a decade ago. The community doesn’t care.

by Shawn Gillogly on Oct 25, 2010 9:51 AM PDT up reply actions  

re: San Jose

You have no idea what you are talking about.

Win or lose, we will always be here for you.

by johnjahafanclub on Oct 25, 2010 1:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

They lost the club the 1st time

because they couldn’t move out of their band-box stadium and had no attendance.

They pledged they’d fix the problem, so they were given a 2nd chance. They’ve had most of a decade to fix said problems, and they’ve failed. SJ is not 1 iota closer to having a viable SSS today than they were when they played in Spartan Stadium the inaugural season. It’s a joke.

by Shawn Gillogly on Oct 25, 2010 2:11 PM PDT up reply actions  

Re: Stadium

You’re not going to find any metro areas in the rest of the country where it is politically feasible to pass a tax on the entire state to fund a stadium in one city like what happened with Qwest Field: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qwest_Field#Funding

Without that tax on the entire state of Washington, which paid for 3/4’s of Qwest’s construction costs, Qwest Field doesn’t get built, the Seahawks leave Seattle just like the Sonics, and Sounders FC is still a USL club. Your situation is completely unique in the realm of building sports stadiums for soccer teams in the United States.

San Jose, on the other hand, is going to build a SSS that is entirely, 100%, privately financed. The Permits and EIR have all been approved, they just need to get some more financing together and then shovels will be in the dirt. All of this progress is being made despite the fact that MLS took a giant dump on the bay area soccer fan base by #1 stealing Landon Donovan illegitimately from SJ and #2 moving the team to Houston.

Win or lose, we will always be here for you.

by johnjahafanclub on Oct 25, 2010 3:22 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

This is a good illustration of the downside of relocation

Clearly even fans of the team hold it against the league on some level that their team was taken away. If the league had had more foresight, it could have simply expanded to Houston rather than jerking around Quakes fans.

by ubelmann on Oct 25, 2010 3:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

There is not state wide tax for Qwest.

The only portion of the funding that was state wide was the lottery tickets.

by Sec 108 on Oct 25, 2010 3:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

And I never said anything about Qwest's deal being the norm.

I’m well aware, having grown up in Minnesota and knowing the debacles of the teams there w/ stadia, the likelihood of that.

MLS moved back to SJ on the stated promise a new stadium would be in place. It wasn’t, Spin it how you like. It wasn’t there. So yes, it was a poor decision to move back without a stadium in place.

by Shawn Gillogly on Oct 25, 2010 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

There Is No Require Timetable

There was no set required timetable of when that would be complete. There was no promise of a stadium being completed before SJ 2.0 started play.

Regardless, even if a timetable had been set back in 06/07, it would be irrelevant in the post-2008 world. As I said before, this is the greatest economic crash since the Great Depression. It is very difficult to get financing right now.

Win or lose, we will always be here for you.

by johnjahafanclub on Oct 25, 2010 7:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

"they just need to get some more financing together"
San Jose, on the other hand, is going to build a SSS that is entirely, 100%, privately financed. The Permits and EIR have all been approved, they just need to get some more financing together and then shovels will be in the dirt.

If I had a dollar for every time I’ve heard that about a project that, in the end, never wound up getting done, I’d be able to pay for a SSS.

by regnaD kciN on Oct 26, 2010 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions  

re: "They’ve had most of a decade to fix said problems"

This shows just how little you know about the situation. When AEG owned SJ from ‘02-’05, there was never any intention of keeping the team there or investing in the marketplace. They made up their minds to move the team early on and lied to everyone’s faces for a few years to keep up the charade until they could dupe a city into giving them taxpayer money for a stadium. This is why SJ’s GM Jonny Moore resigned from the club. They made zero progress on a stadium because they put in zero effort. Then we lost our club. San Jose has only really had the last 3 seasons to “fix said problems,” and this is all happening during the greatest economic crash since the Great Depression.

AEG lost hundreds of millions of dollars investing in NY, LA, and Chicago during the time they owned SJ 1.0. Their losses in SJ 1.0 were a tiny fraction of their losses in those three markets. So to say that SJ 1.0 was somehow losing the league or AEG lots of money, or that somehow SJ is a less viable marketplace, is not true; SJ 1.0 actually lost far less than those big market teams did.

Win or lose, we will always be here for you.

by johnjahafanclub on Oct 25, 2010 3:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

Although this analysis is "interesting" I think its fundamentally flawed

As a couple previous posts at S@H have illustrated, there are teams playing well spending little money, and those playing poorly spending lots of money. Without understand the expense side of the equation this analysis really is inconsequential. Just because they aren’t in “the black” doesn’t mean much on its face. Sports franchise ownership is often not about profitability (at least exclusively) and more about increasing the value of the product for later sale (like a home mortgage). Profitability is a good thing, but its the magnitude of those $‘s (plus/minus) that are important. I know we’re left with imperfect information, prohibiting an informed and comprehensive look at the league, but I’m suspect of all the analysis at the attendance level. You can fill a stadium by giving seats, but maybe you’re better off with a smaller place demanding higher ticket prices or at least filling it adding to the experience. Sounders made that analysis in their slow expansion of seating at Qwest.

Looking at relocation, I just don’t see Detroit, STL, or Tampa being large enough markets. Detroit and STL are declining urban areas. The Red Wings survive purely on their performance and history and even that isn’t holding water as much lately. I don’t see how STL would be a game changer from any of the current teams. And finally, many of the “at risk” teams are located in important markets critical to the league appealing to different demographics.

I do agree they should cool the expansion talk around 20. MLS really doesn’t need to become the NHL, especially when their talent pool is MUCH thinner.

by illwillbli on Oct 25, 2010 6:16 AM PDT reply actions  

Tampa is a non-starter

They lost 1 team due to anemic attendance. The Rays are a disaster for attendance. It’s a loser market.

Orlando is more probable. It’s centrally located on the corridor, gets higher traffic than its population, and can thus draw from most of Central Florida. But Tampa needs to be dropped from any discussion.

by Shawn Gillogly on Oct 25, 2010 6:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

Let's look at the profit numbers again

Because that only 2 teams number is based on ignoring certain income streams.

Here is what I posted a while ago about 2009’s recession nearly killing the League.

Now, let’s remember that this year while still stumbling away from recession the League is in a much stronger position. I’d wager that 10 teams are in the black this season, particularly when we take into account non-soccer revenues for teams that own/operate their own stadiums – everyone but DC United and Chivas USA by end of 2012.

As for talent dillution, let’s recall that there are a near infinite number of players of MLS quality available to the league. More than 200 Americans “play” abroad and only a few dozen are in teams/leagues that matter. That number for Canadians is about 50 or so. Also, MLS has traditionally only used about 60% of its international slots. How many other Sanna Nyassi’s are out there? Until MLS has a national footprint it will not get a real national tv deal worth money.

While relocation may make sense (DC to Baltimore), expansion makes a lot more. This is especially true due to the nature of TV contracts and the 40M$ that goes into the pool to the current owners/operators in MLS. And when we include SUM money, Expansion money and a stronger economy of 2010 MLS probably only has 3 teams that aren’t profittable, and one of those is Red Bull, which is essentially an advertisement.

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Oct 25, 2010 6:32 AM PDT reply actions  

Isn't profit loss on these under-performing teams pretty unsustainable?

I think your guess of 3 in a recovery or bull market might be conservative, there are a lot of teams that have had poor attendance that has never gone up, or has slowly moved down. The $40m each team pays certainly provides a good chunk of cash right up front, but over the long haul, if >50% of the teams aren’t profitable, how can the league sustain this?

by chrisperry1983 on Oct 25, 2010 8:29 AM PDT up reply actions  

No

I just said as many as 10 will profit due to the economic turnaround and inclusion of SUM and expansion dollars.

That’s purely sustainable

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Oct 25, 2010 9:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

I assume you're being ironical?

Expansion dollars are only sustainable if you keep expanding, at which point it becomes a pyramid scheme, not a league (ala NASL).

by K61 on Oct 25, 2010 9:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

SUM dollars are sustainable

and with those half the league made profits during the recession.

This year, attendance was up, and so MORE teams made individual profits. Oh, and World Cup related dollars came into the league coffers.

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Oct 25, 2010 9:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

Isn't that giving too much credit to an economic turnaround?

In 2007, three teams were profitable. I don’t know the exact timing of the study that was done, but I assume it was done in 2007 based on 2006 numbers, which was well before the recession. Even if it included 2007 numbers when hints of the recession were starting to pop up, nothing was affecting the general population at that point.

Aside from all that, is it fair to include SUM into a team’s earnings? It seems like it’s a private entity with ownership split among team owners. I guess I don’t really consider that a source of income to a team, when it seems to be a separate business that helps bolster the bottom line for the owners.

by chrisperry1983 on Oct 25, 2010 10:36 AM PDT up reply actions  

3 in 2007

5 in 2008 (not counting TFC)

recession in 2009 (Sounders, include TFC)

Now in 2010 we have higher attendance, sounders, tfc, philly, rsl with a stadium and san jose/kc with stadiums on way

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Oct 25, 2010 10:57 AM PDT up reply actions  

Some thoughts

At least according to its wikipedia article, SUM is the marketing arm of MLS. I don’t see how profits from SUM shouldn’t be lumped in with MLS, since as far as I can tell, SUM wouldn’t exist without MLS. Also, it seems to me that what is good for SUM in terms of national team soccer and their one-off events is good for MLS, and what’s good for MLS is good for SUM.

In terms of comparing, say, a future year (let’s say 2015, wIth a recovered economy) with 2007, I feel like the league should have a few things going for it in 2015 that it didn’t in 2007. First off, I believe that MLS recently renegotiated a long-term TV deal which is going to be better than what they had in ‘07. (I don’t have a cite, so any evidence for or against this is welcome.) TV rights are huge, and with Garber’s NFL background, I’m sure he will be pushing hard to solidify that revenue stream.

Nothing is guaranteed in the future, but MLS seems to have added five enthusiastic fan bases (Seattle, Philly, Portland, Vancouver, and Montreal) between 2007 and 2015. That may count for a lot given the league’s single-entity structure. It also seems like the league is getting to a point where stadium expenditures are hopefully decreasing.

In terms of growth, I’d bet that there are a lot of teams who could see improvement in local TV revenue and exposure. I would also argue that the league is still young and that it is continually reaching more people. The quality of the soccer is undoubtedly increasing, and that figures to help pull in some more hardcore fans. And as long as MLS can avoid a labor stoppage, potential labor stoppages in the NFL and NBA could stand to help out the league.

I think that if the league just generally stays the course, capping at say 20 teams for the next 10 years or so, things are looking good for it in the long term. Over-expansion could be an issue in terms of finding the right markets for new teams, but I don’t think we’re at that point with 19-20 teams.

by ubelmann on Oct 25, 2010 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

I think you're right Dave, and that worries me

Actually, I think we’re both right. As an overall investment by each owner, I suspect that many owners are indeed making a profit as you explain. FC Dallas is probably the best example of this because, as far as I recall, they get a lot of income from the sports complex surrounding Pizza Hut Park. Unfortunately, this revenue is not shared in any way with the league (based on what I’ve read, which is imperfect) and only benefits the FC Dallas owner. The only way this can help the league is if that owner then turns around and invests that profit into their own team by buying expensive players or doing an excellent (read expensive) job at marketing. In FC Dallas’ case, I don’t think anyone can argue that either of those are happening.

By contrast, the league is set up to require teams who are successful at the gates to provide 30% of that revenue (it apparently used to be 50% before the league contracted) back to the league for distribution to all teams as salary cap money. So if a club can figure out how to generate revnue without selling tickets (as FC Dallas may have done) then it becomes easy to just mooch off the league without making the product better. I would argue that such a situation is dangerous for the long term success of the league.

In the blog post, I linked to this research paper which explores how the incentive model does not encourage owner-operators to promote the league’s product and predicts how attendance will suffer because of this. What I fear is that the new expansion teams (Toronto, Seattle, and Philly) just don’t “get it” yet and that the rest of the owners are quietly keeping their own profits from unshared revenue streams while the new owners are maximizing profits from revenue streams that they are required to share.

by K61 on Oct 25, 2010 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions  

I never would advocate Relocation

After what happened with the Sonics i would never inflict that on another group of people. No group of fans deserves to have their team taken from them.

by DarthGreedo on Oct 25, 2010 9:33 AM PDT reply actions  

How so?

Sports teams are not an entitlement. If there aren’t enough people going to the games to sustain the team, then it’s stupid to continue maintaining a team in that market. Just because a small group of people want something, it doesn’t mean they should get what they want at no cost.

If the league gets into the business of rewarding need, it won’t be around long.

by K61 on Oct 25, 2010 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions  

By moving out of Seattle the way that it did

Stern and company generated a lot of ill will towards the NBA in Seattle. Short-term, sure, moving to OKC is the right cash grab move for the league, but in the long term, I don’t think OKC is going to look like a great place for an NBA franchise, and inevitably the NBA will want to come back to Seattle, because there is money to be made here, but now they have a lot of work to do to win back fans.

Really, it’s not so much about fans deserving to have a team, but the fact that fans are your customers and taking a team from your customers, especially a team that those customers have grown attached to, is going to make those customers unhappy. That’s not to say that relocation never makes sense, but it does come with costs.

by ubelmann on Oct 25, 2010 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

I don't watch Sports so the owners can make money

I watch because i love the game. I know it may be better for the league financially, but I’m just saying ripping a team away from a group of fans is never a good thing. It sucks and i’m not going to advocate for a group of fans to go through what we’ve had to go through.

by DarthGreedo on Oct 25, 2010 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions  

agreed

The Sonics experience was underhanded in the extreme. There are times relocation is necessary, however.

by Shawn Gillogly on Oct 25, 2010 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

One difference was ownership financing of a stadium

I’m against big taxpayer payments for stadium especially when leagues use the threat of relocation to extort money. From what I remember….

The old Sonics ownership group (i.e. Schultz) and the NBA wanted the city and state to put in a boatload of money into a new stadium even though they still hadn’t finished out the lease at Key Arena. The new OKC ownership group clearly didn’t want to keep the Sonics in the area. They turned down or sabotaged a number of promising stadium deals in the Puget Sound area.

In the end, the Sonics broke their trust with the city by refusing to stay until their lease was up at Key Arena. An agreement they had with the city in exchange for public financing for the earlier Key Arena refurbishing. The results are still being felt at Seattle Central. The fees and rents for other events at Seattle Central like Bumbershoot have been raised to make up for lost revenue leading to financial problems for a lot of organizations. It’s also hurt a lot of the small businesses and restaurants in the area.

I’m much more supportive of the Quakes staying in San Jose. The Quakes ownership group are putting up all the funds for building the stadium with the city with San Jose State providing the land.

by Dizzo on Oct 25, 2010 5:27 PM PDT up reply actions  

I suspect...

…that the expansion dollars are going a LONG way towards covering any losses that some franchises are sustaining.

Also, I have to wonder- when you talk about relocation, how much is lost in terms of startup costs? Sure a new team in town can be exciting and draw well for a year or two, but there’s a ton of infrastructure costs that a team needs to establish.

SSFC had a huge advantage on this in that they already had an existing infrastructure of ticket agents, PR people, marketing people, security, operations, etc all sitting there ready to go. They just used the Seahawks’ staff. Most new teams aren’t going to have that- and since local operations are a cost that comes out of the local franchisee’s pockets, you know it’s going to be an area where those owners are going to tend towards being skimpy on.

I’ve dealt with a lot of MLS teams’ operations and ticketing people in doing travel arrangements for ECS, and let me tell you- I’m often surprised that any clubs are still in business. People slag on government workers for being slow, dumb, lazy, or unmotivated, but some of the things that MLS teams do or their employees say/do are simply incredible.

So between the new teams franchise fees and the desire to rein in local costs and the added costs of relocation, you can see why owners are probably resistant to relocation.

Granted, some of those already-invested costs (most of them in fact) in existing cities are sunk costs, the reality is that humans have a really hard time making truly rational decisions that involve sunk costs. They see it as walking away from money they’ve invested/spent, and without any return, and they hate to do that.

by Blue Eyed Buddhist on Oct 25, 2010 9:48 AM PDT reply actions  

Personally, I think that relocation is a really bad long-term strategy

Consider DC, for instance. They drew a roughly 20K crowd for their season finale, which meant nothing in the standings, but was the send-off for MLS great Jaime Moreno. They don’t have a stadium in sight, which is an issue, but they have an established fan base, and I think that that counts for an awful lot with a new league like this. If/when DC improves on the field, they will get plenty of fans.

Every time a team has a good run of success, you win over more and more fans, and communities start to identify with their team. If you start to jerk teams around from city to city, people don’t feel the same attachment and I think you’ll both have fewer people who want to buy every new jersey that comes out, and fewer casual fans on the other end of the spectrum who essentially promote the team by discussing the team’s latest offseason moves at the water cooler with colleagues.

On top of that, I don’t think there are any compelling markets to move into. As a Minnesota native, I think that Minneapolis/St. Paul is a completely saturated sports market. MLB, NFL, NHL, NBA, D1 college football, D1 college basketball, and a strong following for D1 college hockey. The D2 Minnesota franchise doesn’t get good attendance now, and any public stadium funding (which is really unlikely given recently funded stadiums for college football and major league baseball) is going to go to the Vikings.

Neither Tampa nor Miami is compelling, especially given that MLS has already moved teams from those locations. Somehow San Jose got themselves a second chance, but it’s not as though ticket demand there is sky high. Also, unemployment in FL is especially bad right now, so any team that moves there in the near future is going to take a long time to really draw. Similarly for Detroit, I have a hard time believing that their economy is really a great place to put a new franchise in the near future.

St. Louis seems to have some potential, but I’d personally rather see AC St. Louis establish themselves as a D2 team before STL gets an MLS franchise.

I think that the location of Pizza Hut Park is not really a big problem. It’s Texas, people are used to driving. (And last I heard, parking is free at PHP.) From what I understand, there is something of a perception issue in that the sunny side of the stadium is the one that the camera faces, so you’re generally looking at the side of the stadium where people don’t want to sit.

The only MLS franchise I’d really consider moving right now is Chivas USA, and that’s mainly because I don’t like the idea of two teams sharing a stadium. And it only exacerbates CUSA’s identity issues. They manage to alienate Mexican-American fans who aren’t Chivas de Guadelajara fans, and still try to maintain strong Mexican ties, which has to be a hard sell to fans of, say, the US Men’s National Team. Rebranding and moving to San Diego (or wherever there was a promising investor and situation) would make some sense to me. Even maybe rebranding and moving to somewhere in NY would make sense.

by ubelmann on Oct 25, 2010 9:49 AM PDT reply actions  

DC moving

is a non-starter to me as well.

As you noted, bad deal @ RFK or not, they have a strong fan-base. Probably the 2nd most popular team in the league despite their recent downturn. The league isn’t strong enough to turn off that kind of support.

Second, the team is too strongly identified with the League’s history now. As much as the Galaxy WANT to be the “Real Madrid of MLS,” United has earned that position by results.

by Shawn Gillogly on Oct 25, 2010 9:59 AM PDT up reply actions  

They do have a solid fan infrastructure, even at RFK

Purely anecdotal evidence, but I went to the game against FC Dallas this summer, and the Barra Brava made that old, cavernous stadium feel like a decent place to watch soccer.

by yuniform on Oct 25, 2010 12:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

I agree entirely

No way DC moves far enough to have to change the name.

by Shawn Gillogly on Oct 25, 2010 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

New England Perpective from Boston

I’m a Seattle native, but I’ve been living in the Boston area since 2000. Prior to 2009, I was oblivious to the Revs and had no idea they were making the MLS Cup final or that the final was actually held locally once. I was a fan of the world cup and occasionally watched La Liga. Then last summer I was out visiting my family in Seattle and wanted to attend a sports event. The Mariners were out of town so I ended up going to Sounders vs. Rapids. I was astonished when I showed up and had to buy tickets from a scalper. However, I was even more astonished by how fantastic the experience was once inside. Even my wife, who’s not a sports fan, had a great time. I was hooked from that point forward.

Back in Boston that fall, I decided to make the kind of long and kind of annoying trek down to Foxboro to see the Revs playoff game against Houston. My wife’s reaction upon entering the stadium pretty much sums it up: "this is so sad". She had been expecting something like Sounders FC, but we got something kind of like my old high school soccer games. Ultimately I had a good time at the game, but it just wasn’t the same. I haven’t been back since because to me the trip all the way down there isn’t quite worth it and I don’t know a single Revs fan (other than myself). Despite that, I probably watched 25 Revs games on TV and 35 Sounders games on Matchdaylive and cable.

To me the Revs face three problems. First off, the stadium size and location suck. You get there and you’re a parking lot wasteland and then the stadium is sparsely populated. NFL stadiums are usually no good for soccer. Second, this city has a very strong "big 4" American sports tradition and soccer just gets the table scraps after the Red Sox, Patriots, Celtics, and Bruins are done eating. Third, they cater to youth soccer, likely suburban youth soccer.

However, there are rumors of a move to the metro Boston area in a few years. The Kraft family owns vacant property large enough to house a stadium within walking distance of subway stations about 1 mile north of Boston in Somerville. Somerville is the most densely populated city in New England and is home to an enormous population of Brazilians and Portuguese among other immigrants from futbol first countries. If the stadium were built in Somerville, I would be a season ticket holder. In Foxboro, I expect to attend one or two games per year.

by bosfan on Oct 25, 2010 9:52 AM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Catering to youth soccer...

…makes for really lame crowds now, but could pay off eventually. I think that a HUGE reason the Sounders have done so well is that there is a strong history of people playing soccer in the Pacific NW. The more kids you can get to play soccer, the more fans you’re going to have down the line. Eventually some of those kids who grew up with their home MLS franchise will join their supporter’s group, the supporter’s group will get larger, and you’ll also see more twenty-somethings—and twenty-somethings with an understanding of the game at that—buying tickets to games and it stands to reason that the game experience should improve, even if it is a long process.

Definitely in Boston, their big four sports teams are really ingrained into the sporting culture there, and it’s harder to see the Revolution breaking through there, but there are so many people in New England, it’s hard for me to count them out until they can get a better stadium situation. Hopefully Somerville, or something similar, works out for them.

by ubelmann on Oct 25, 2010 10:06 AM PDT up reply actions  

Boston Perspective

You summed up the Revs’ outlook nicely. My experience has a different twist, but a similar experience with the Revs. I’m a Boston-native Sounders supporter (and Sox/Bruins/Patriots/BC fan). I’ve been a longtime soccer fan, mostly following the World Cup and qualifying. I was only vaguely interested in MLS previously, because, quite frankly, the Revs never gave me a good enough reason to care. I’d flip by the games on TV and see a mediocre product with a dull atmosphere in an empty stadium. Haul out to Foxboro for that? Why waste my time and money?

But from the first moment the new Seattle franchise appeared on my radar in 2007, I was hooked. Here was a different approach; something worth supporting; a reason to be excited about the future of soccer in this country. I’ve never missed an SSFC game, attending as many East Coast away matches as possible with ECS, and flew out to Seattle for the Barcelona friendly last year. I finally attended a Revs game – when the Sounders came to town each time. The Sounders keep rewarding me as a fan, on and off the field. Even 3,000 miles away, I feel like my support matters to the organization. Bob Kraft (who I love as Patriots owner) had well over a decade to make me a Revs fan, but failed.

I live in Cambridge, work in Somerville. Agree that the Somerville site would be perfect. I’d definitely go to games if that stadium came to fruition. It’d change the whole culture of the team for sure. I’ll believe it when I see it though. Either way, I’ll be wearing Rave Green :-)

by LordIceman on Oct 25, 2010 12:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

Could NESV/'Pool have an impact?

Question for the Boston folks…
I realize that NESV (Sox) and Kraft (Pats/Revs) are completely different, but if NESV starts any marketing at all of Liverpool, would there be an opportunity for the Revs to capitalize on that to increase fan interest?

by jonnyreno on Oct 25, 2010 1:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

Parlaying Liverpool interest to Revs interest

Last summer teams from Scotland and Portugal came to play at Fenway. There was a lot of interest in the game because European teams are from a real football culture or something. I had people telling me about this game whom I had no idea had any interest at all in soccer. It really meant nothing for the Revs though. I don’t think that many sports fans have the imagination to picture a Revs game being as fun and cool as a European game. I don’t think most American sports fans can picture a North American soccer game as fun as Seattle, Philly, or Toronto.

On the other hand, if the Revs played a Euro team at Fenway, that might get some sports fan interest.

by bosfan on Oct 25, 2010 1:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

Pretty much what I thought

Interest in one isn’t necessarily going to translate into added interest in the other.

by jonnyreno on Oct 25, 2010 2:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

Of course, the Revs at Fenway would never happen

since Bob Kraft isn’t going to share the profits with John Henry and pals…or more likely, vice versa. From the Sox’ point of view, if you can only host a soccer game once a year and you know you can fill the place with Celtic vs Sporting, why share the profits with Bob Kraft to get the Revs involved? Maybe the Revs wouldn’t even sell out a game at Fenway. There’s really zero benefit for NESV to partner up with Kraft at all. (From what I’ve read, there’s no love lost between the two groups.)

Pretty sure thing that “Football at Fenway” happens again in 2011, featuring Liverpool vs. ????

by LordIceman on Oct 25, 2010 6:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

Revs at Fenway

It never even crossed my mind that the Revs would play regularly or even once at Fenway. I was just hopeful that local ownership of one of the most popular clubs in the EPL might in some way translate into increased interest in MLS.

by jonnyreno on Oct 25, 2010 10:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

As a former Bostonian...

…I was interested to see how fans back there would react to LFC being part of the Red Sox organization. I checked out the Boston Dirt Dogs (rabid Sox fans) website, and was surprised to see just how much outright anger was being directed against NESV for the purchase. The attitude seemed to be that Henry and company were stealing money from the Sox that could have been used for free agents to boost them over the Evil Empire Yankees in order to buy a foreign soccer team. They were practically ready to run Henry out of town for that “betrayal.”

One thing it may be hard for us to realize, or want to realize, is that, while there’s a growing niche of soccer fans in this country, there’s an even larger bloc of haters who believe that “soccer isn’t a real sport” or that it’s “foreign” and therefore “un-American.” I would hazard a guess that, even in Sounders-mad Seattle, there are fewer soccer fans than generic sports fans who want nothing to do with soccer (not just those who ignore it, but those who actively hate it and want to see it vanish from the American sports scene). Don’t believe me? Try to call in and start a discussion on soccer on either of Seattle’s two sports-talk radio stations, and see the reaction you get from other callers.

by regnaD kciN on Oct 26, 2010 4:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

or you could set up relegation and promotion like the rest of the world

and when top tier clubs can’t hack it, they get replaced by lower-tier clubs, and if they can’t hack it, they get replaced. Let the “free market” dictate it, not central planning… what a concept!

32-36 clubs spread over USA and Canada, and the 16-18 that comprise the MLS are the ones who deserve to be there…

I have SERIOUS concerns about the MLS "expanding’ beyond 16 teams…. and in fact, I would consider 18 to be an absolute upper limit…

...that's MISTER Keller to you!!!

by malcontentjake on Oct 25, 2010 11:14 AM PDT reply actions  

the rest of the world does not have pro/rel

in fact most countries with history similar to MLS do not

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Oct 25, 2010 11:25 AM PDT up reply actions  

well they call it pro/rel

but no one gets relegated – Japan, Qatar, Saudi, Australia

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Oct 25, 2010 11:26 AM PDT up reply actions  

Honestly

Promotion relegation would be very difficult to pull off in a nation the size of the US. It would be far too easy to relegate major markets, or entire regions, to obscurity in a way that would cause long-term damage to the league’s finances.

While I think it would be fun and I’d love to see the Red Bulls relegated, or the KC Wizards for their continual ineptitude. I don’t think it’s going to happen. Nor do I think it’s viable.

by Shawn Gillogly on Oct 25, 2010 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

rel-pro is elegant solution

If I wanted to open up potential new markets, but not sacrifice overall quality of play by over-expanding, then a rel-pro system is, to me, an elegant solution.

Like I said, a viable two-division system opens up 16-18 potential markets. Want to own a “big league” club, buy one and invest in it to get it promoted. In a “free market” rel/pro system, teams NEVER relocate, and by allowing clubs to find their own level of “buoyancy” teams going out of business is an extreme rarity.

...that's MISTER Keller to you!!!

by malcontentjake on Oct 25, 2010 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

this isn't true

teams do relocate in the pro/rel system.

See Wimbledon.

by Shawn Gillogly on Oct 25, 2010 2:13 PM PDT up reply actions  

Wimbledon is an outlier

Relocation is extremely rare in England, Germany, Spain and Italy. Wimbledon is a single, though highly publicized, example.

by jonnyreno on Oct 25, 2010 2:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

administration though is not an outlier

Why should we ignore Leeds, Newcastle, Portsmouth, etc?

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Oct 25, 2010 2:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

those clubs still exist

in fact, by golly, Newcastle is back in the Prem.

...that's MISTER Keller to you!!!

by malcontentjake on Oct 25, 2010 2:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

a relocted club still exists

people who love them can still go

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Oct 25, 2010 3:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

Do you truly believe

That there are Sonics fans who do a lot of traveling to OKC to watch the ZombieSonics play?

by jonnyreno on Oct 25, 2010 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

that's laughable

are you serious?!

so I’m supposed to be a still be a Sonics fan…?

oh yeah, wait

...that's MISTER Keller to you!!!

by malcontentjake on Oct 25, 2010 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

Have you seen what happens to teams that go down due to administration

It is nearly a death sentence

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Oct 25, 2010 3:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yes

Any player worth anything is likely sold off, the manager is likely sacked, the attendance drops – often significantly – and the club is often in a dicey financial position.

But, the club is still there, and like you said, people who love them can still go. So, it might not be a death spiral.

That is definitely not the case when the team moves. People who love the team can’t actually go. Because they’re no longer located there.

by jonnyreno on Oct 25, 2010 3:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

Fiorentina

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ACF_Fiorentina#Della_Valle_era

administration in 2002
UEFA Champs. Lge qualification at end of ‘07-’08 season

...that's MISTER Keller to you!!!

by malcontentjake on Oct 25, 2010 3:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

Actually that's an entirely new organization

“effectively ceased to exist”

New EVERYTHING but the stadium

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Oct 25, 2010 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Better example:

Leeds United.

And Wimbledon again, to be honest.

The point is, the statement was “Relocation never happens.” It does. And there’s actually considerable debate between the London EPL clubs about moving into the Olympic Stadium following 12. That would be uprooting the club from its ‘traditional’ base. Which is what killed Wimbledon.

by Shawn Gillogly on Oct 25, 2010 4:31 PM PDT up reply actions  

last time I checked

Leeds United AFC still exists, and, well, would you look at that, is still in Leeds.

in fact, believe it or not, ABSOLUTELY NOTHING stands in their way of one day being back in the Prem. and playing their way back to the Champs. Lge semifinals…

a team getting a new home stadium is not equivalent to relocation.

I gotta be honest, because you guys just aren’t understanding where I’m coming from on this, and this has become a tired exercise in nit-picking each other’s statements… best to just move on

...that's MISTER Keller to you!!!

by malcontentjake on Oct 25, 2010 5:54 PM PDT up reply actions  

This is definitely one of the benefits to pro/rel

I really think a limited form of pro/rel could work. I’m less convinced an open pyramid is teh way to go.

Editor/writer at Sounder at Heart, North American soccer editor SB Nation and of course follow me on Twitter

by Jeremiah Oshan on Oct 25, 2010 3:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

Something like

40 teams in MLS, with 20 in “tier 1” and 20 in “tier 2” ?

So, 20 teams play in the tier 1 group, the other 20 plays in the tier 2 group. At the end of the season, the bottom three tier 1 teams get placed into the tier 2 table, while the top three tier 2 teams get placed in the tier 1 table?

Does this make any sense? This is what I would sort of like to see. It’s a pro/rel “lite”. You don’t have that minor league stigma, but you’re continually shifting the bottom feeders out and “promoting” the top performers.

Of course, I haven’t put a ton of thought into it, but it seems like a good shell of an idea.

by chrisperry1983 on Oct 26, 2010 6:52 AM PDT up reply actions  

FCD gets 10k now

How many would they get when they get sent down?

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Oct 26, 2010 9:46 AM PDT up reply actions  

That's not what I'm really saying

I’m thinking more of a CCL vs SuperLiga kind of deal. All teams remain in MLS, but there are teams in group X and teams in group Y. All still top level, but the top half and bottom half play each other within their respective halves. To use this season for example, DC wouldn’t be relegated to USL. They would still remain in MLS, but now play a different set of teams as a result of getting “relegated”.

Anyway, I’m not trying to start a pro/rel debate. More trying to understand what Jeremiah meant by a limited form of pro/rel.

by chrisperry1983 on Oct 26, 2010 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

You have got the essence of what I'm saying

Editor/writer at Sounder at Heart, North American soccer editor SB Nation and of course follow me on Twitter

by Jeremiah Oshan on Oct 26, 2010 11:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

Except that they would be playing other "not really sent down teams"

Fans aren’t stupid

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Oct 27, 2010 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't think fans are stupid

This is a milder form of pro/rel that I’ve been sort of cooking up in my mind. Maybe the top group is called MLS Premier, and the other is just MLS. I dunno. It’s an alternative to relegating to the “minors” which would kill finances/attendance/etc.

This would only work if we expanded to a point where we had a meaningful number of teams that’d be in each group, maybe 32 total and have 16 in each? Or since we’re jumping to 34 games with 18 teams, 36 teams total? The appeal being that your team makes it out of the second tier to compete with the top teams again. But again, without the minor league branding.

by chrisperry1983 on Oct 28, 2010 11:32 AM PDT up reply actions  

How many fans of the lower league

wouldn’t know that it is the lower league?

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Oct 28, 2010 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think core fans that knew the game would know

Just like I would assume the core fans of NFL understand why certain teams never play other teams, because of the way the conferences are setup.

Also if say, we somehow end up with a “big 4” equivalent, teams dropped to the lower tier would probably figure out real quick why their team isn’t playing the likes of RSL or LA (as examples).

Obviously this is just an idea. But I appreciate the probing questions. Gets me thinking more critically about it.

by chrisperry1983 on Oct 28, 2010 10:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

Admin is not an outlier

My comment was specifically referring to relocation of teams. And as far as I know… Leeds, Newcastle and Portsmouth are still located in Leeds, Newcastle and Portsmouth.

I’m in favor of some sort of promotion/relegation system. I just don’t know how well it would be accepted in the U.S. If it were, we might have seen the Pittsburgh Pirates relegated by now.

by jonnyreno on Oct 25, 2010 3:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

Problems with a US League

THe us it too large for just 18 teams, especially when 3 of those teams are in Cananda. But if you make it larger then that its almost impossible to maintain a balanced schedule. The 2 best solutions to this both have their weaknesses.

1) Promotion/Relegation allows for lots and lots of teams but Soccer is a hard sell in a lot of places and getting people to support their club in the lower divisions would be a problem.

2) Unbalanced schedules based on conferences and divisions works in other sports but a large group of soccer fans like the idea of making our league as close a European structure as possible. Part of Soccer’s apeal is its global aspect. As making our league similar to the biggest in the league has its merits, even if it just cause it “feels good”…

To get National TV revenue MLS needs to be a National league, With teams spread throughout. Dave has touched on this a lot. The US it too large to stick with just 18 or 20 teams.

by DarthGreedo on Oct 25, 2010 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions  

yea

just to add for #1 stadiums each soccer team in the lower divisions would have to meet MLS soccer stadium requirements and that’s just now going to happen.

by gstommylee on Oct 25, 2010 11:47 AM PDT up reply actions  

over-expansion will kill the MLS

mark my words

...that's MISTER Keller to you!!!

by malcontentjake on Oct 25, 2010 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

Why?

What are the limits of the current level of talent?

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Oct 25, 2010 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

money

There isn’t enough money in soccer in USA and Canada, I wish that weren’t the case, but it is. Too many teams will dilute what little money there is, as well as dilute the talent that money can buy. The league’s top teams will be drug into the morass of mediocrity, and overall play will plummet.

for more on this, see NHL, circa 1992-2004

...that's MISTER Keller to you!!!

by malcontentjake on Oct 25, 2010 12:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

Except that NHL was the top league in the world at the time

Whereas MLS is not.

There is quality on every team’s bench. D2 and D3 teams have MLS quality players. There are over 100 international slots unfilled, and nearly 100 Americans playing in leagues of MLS quality or lower around the world.

Every round of expansion the flag of dillution has been raised, but I would say the quality of the League as a whole is higher now then any time in Garber’s reign.

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Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Oct 25, 2010 12:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

If anything...

…I would say that in running a small enough league you risk recycling too many league veterans and missing out on potential above-league-average players because there aren’t a whole lot of roster spots that the league has available for experimentation.

Now, while I’m firmly in your camp in terms of talent dilution not being an issue, I do believe that there are only so many sports/entertainment dollars to be had in the US. If MLS is smart, that will simply limit the league rather than kill it. Personally I see no danger of the league’s demise any time soon.

Even given the example of the NHL, I don’t see how the NHL at all qualifies as dead. They are still playing hockey, after all, and I could even see them being in a really solid position if the NBA has trouble with their next CBA. (And last I heard, Stern wants to slash payroll by 1/3.) If the NHL is somehow the worst case scenario for MLS, I’ll take it.

by ubelmann on Oct 25, 2010 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

NHL v 15 years ago is much smaller

some of the top Euro teams might be as good

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Oct 25, 2010 1:06 PM PDT up reply actions  

Smaller is not the same as dead

The NHL is a perfectly entertaining sports league, alive and kicking. Dead is what happened to NASL. Dead is what happened to the USFL and later the XFL. That’s what dead looks like.

by ubelmann on Oct 25, 2010 1:25 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't recall saying the NHL was dead

the quality of play, overall in the NHL absolutely plummeted during the 90’s

QUALITY OF PLAY

more is not always more, and in the case of the NHL, they clearly over-expanded.

...that's MISTER Keller to you!!!

by malcontentjake on Oct 25, 2010 3:00 PM PDT up reply actions  

You said that over-expansion will "kill" MLS

You said that the NHL is an example. If the NHL is an example of a league being “killed” by expansion, then you are implying that the NHL is a “dead” league, whether you use the word dead explictly or not. Everything that is killed is dead.

by ubelmann on Oct 25, 2010 3:19 PM PDT up reply actions  

NHL is practically dead to me

couldn’t stand watching it any more

but otherwise, do pardon my metaphor

...that's MISTER Keller to you!!!

by malcontentjake on Oct 25, 2010 3:42 PM PDT up reply actions  

Maybe dead to you...

…but I maintain that if the NHL is somehow a worst case scenario for MLS, I’ll take it in a heartbeat.

by ubelmann on Oct 25, 2010 3:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

I wouldn't

quality over quantity, my friend…

...that's MISTER Keller to you!!!

by malcontentjake on Oct 25, 2010 3:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

The quality of the NHL...

…relative to the quality of hockey across the world is better than the quality of soccer that currently exists in MLS compared to the quality of soccer across the world, even though MLS has been continually improving in talent.

by ubelmann on Oct 25, 2010 3:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

and I also...

never said that over-expansion “killed” the NHL. I said it “diluted” the NHL and reduced the overall quality.

I do believe that this will “kill” the MLS because it exists even further out on the margins of the sports landscape than the NHL… and the NHL exists on the margins as it is… I find it being called a “big 4” quite laughable. I’m pretty sure NASCAR and golf are more "popular’

...that's MISTER Keller to you!!!

by malcontentjake on Oct 25, 2010 3:47 PM PDT up reply actions  

and...

… over-expansion helped marginalize it.

Remember 1994, when sports illustrated ran a cover story about why the NHL is hot and the NBA is not?
yeah, whatever DID happen to the popularity of the NHL???!!!

...that's MISTER Keller to you!!!

by malcontentjake on Oct 25, 2010 3:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

NHL Lockout

After the Rangers won the Cup in 93-94, the league was rolling along and was more popular than ever before.

Then the lockout happened and the league lost a significant number of fans that they just gained. Two steps forward, eight steps back.

by jonnyreno on Oct 25, 2010 4:08 PM PDT up reply actions  

exactly

The Lockout and wash of the whole season is what daggered the NHL. That coupled with Bettman’s “marketing genius” of moving the sport to a network no one saw it on and getting a national contract that had worse rights than Arena Football.

by Shawn Gillogly on Oct 25, 2010 4:32 PM PDT up reply actions  

that, and over-expansion

actually, what hurt the NHL every bit as much as the lockout was the New Jersey Devils winning the ’95 Stanley Cup with their “neutral-zone trap.”

With talent dilution and overall quality dropping due to expansion, suddenly frightfully dull and negative hockey became the norm. Also, as more and more teams began to play in multi-use arenas, ice quality league-wide began to deteriorate. All of these events conspired to cause a precipitous drop in the quality of play in the NHL. The game was, quite simply, not as fun to watch as it had been in the late 80’s-early 90’s, when the NHL rode a wave of popularity which lead to the very expansion which helped kill it.

one more time, for clarity: OVER-EXPANSION HURT THE NHL
that fact is self-evident IMO

...that's MISTER Keller to you!!!

by malcontentjake on Oct 25, 2010 6:03 PM PDT up reply actions  

The only thing I know about the NHL

is that I loved playing NHL 94.

Man that game was sweet.

by agtk on Oct 25, 2010 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'm not arguing...

about whether it hurt the NHL. It didn’t kill the NHL. To be honest, the problems with the NHL went far beyond expansion.

Alienation of the fan base. Insistence on moving from strong hockey markets to weak markets. Reliance on gimmicks instead of promotion of the athletes. Lots of issues. Overexpansion was one of them. Significant, but not entirely.

by Shawn Gillogly on Oct 25, 2010 6:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

It's a combination of things

NHL Lockout (avoided this year by the MLS), negative hockey + over-expansion (diluting talent and making the game difficult to watch) and the new tv contract (which made the NHL literally unwatchable in parts of the country).

Tying this all back to MLS though, we’ve avoided the lockout (good), are expanding television deals [putting aside the debate on the quality of commentary] (also good), and are expanding the league in the NW (likely good).

I completely agree that dilution of talent would result in an inferior product (bad). For now, I think I’d rather stop at 20 (same as EPL, La Liga, Serie A, Ligue 1), focus on strengthening those teams and then focus on building D2. As Dave mentioned earlier, there’s a lot of talent in the US going elsewhere and a lot of international talent that could be brought in.

by jonnyreno on Oct 25, 2010 6:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

To me

20 teams is a logical max, as it corresponds with the expected number of Top Flight clubs to US fans. If we did expand past that, then I’d say 24 at the extreme, taking 10 years to get to that number.

by Shawn Gillogly on Oct 25, 2010 7:01 PM PDT up reply actions  

Why is 20 the expectation?

Anglo much?

18 works for much of the world

Although most of our leagues are 30+

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Oct 25, 2010 7:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

US is a bigger country

with more local than regional fans, hence the large number of teams.

"The ability to speak does not make you intelligent"- Qui-Gon Jinn

by tomkanti on Oct 25, 2010 10:29 PM PDT up reply actions  

20 is the expectation

Because we can’t have 18 unless we contract one of the 19 clubs in MLS after next year. And since 19 is an odd number, it seemed logical to stop at 20. Especially since that seems to work for many top leagues.

by jonnyreno on Oct 25, 2010 10:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

Many top leagues?

NFL: 32 teams
MLB: 30
NHL: 30
NBA: 30
WNBA: 12
Nippon Professional Baseball: 12
Lingerie Football League: 10

wait what were we talking about? I got distracted by that last search.

by agtk on Oct 26, 2010 1:13 AM PDT up reply actions  

jonnyreno meant top "soccer" leagues

But we both know that was obvious. The FIFA recommended maximum number of teams in a league is 20 (I’m not making this up).

by K61 on Oct 26, 2010 8:39 AM PDT up reply actions  

I didn't know that, that is interesting.

It states the goal is to protect players from playing too many games. It seems that goal would be equally accomplished by pushing ahead to 30 or more and playing unbalanced schedules, which I believe is where the problem is if a league is going to 22 or 24.

I also wanted to point out that 20 is hardly the “expectation” of an average American sports fan.

by agtk on Oct 26, 2010 8:56 AM PDT up reply actions  

The problem is we don’t have a relegation system so we’ll just have to stop after 20 in that case.

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by UZ on Oct 26, 2010 8:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

18 works

for the Bundesliga.

But 20 is more common. And not just in the EPL. La Liga and Serie A as well. Most fans who watch Euro Football watch those leagues.

And the Championship has more than 20.

And for the record, when I play Championship Manager, I rarely start in England. France and Holland are my preferred starting leagues. :P

by Shawn Gillogly on Oct 26, 2010 10:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

exactly

and, for that matter, overall quality is reflected in many ways. Coaching, referring, and players.

This is already a marginal league in terms of overall quality.

Ever heard of QUALITY over QUANTITY?!

...that's MISTER Keller to you!!!

by malcontentjake on Oct 25, 2010 3:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

In which case...

…the league better contract to four teams.

by regnaD kciN on Oct 26, 2010 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

This is why there are no real soccer “clubs” in America
These teams are all members of a franchise, not a club.

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by iced on Oct 25, 2010 12:31 PM PDT reply actions  

Tell me specifically

How being a “club” would improve a team’s finances?

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Oct 25, 2010 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

Isn't this self-evident?

Being a Club like the Sounders—making the supporters part of the team in theory and in practice wherever possible—creates more support and buy-in from the community. Treat fans like a distribution list of consumers and you get [insert MLS team name].

by lemonverbena on Oct 25, 2010 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

Your answer doesn't jive with his comment
This is why there are no real soccer "clubs" in America
These teams are all members of a franchise, not a club.

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Oct 25, 2010 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

I still think Revolution aren't really an immediate priority

because they control their own revenue streams and actually do own the stadium…it is technically a ‘stadium of their own.’

I’m more concerned about Chivas USA and DC United. (and to a much lesser extent, FC Dallas and Columbus).

by Samuelson on Oct 25, 2010 1:39 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Actually if the MLS doesn't expand

If could mean the end of the MLS. Relocation is a big issue though for some teams.

Hot Time In Old Town SB Nation's blog for Chicago Fire, Soccer, & Chicago History

by Tweed Thornton on Oct 25, 2010 3:03 PM PDT reply actions  

I'm not sure I follow this...

You’re saying the MLS needs to continue expanding … to what? At some point, expansion can not be seen as a way to make money and the product has to survive on its own.

Editor/writer at Sounder at Heart, North American soccer editor SB Nation and of course follow me on Twitter

by Jeremiah Oshan on Oct 25, 2010 3:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

I've got a post on Saturday that is going to be all about this

Otherwise I’d dig deeper

Hot Time In Old Town SB Nation's blog for Chicago Fire, Soccer, & Chicago History

by Tweed Thornton on Oct 25, 2010 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's not unlike a Ponzi scheme.

Sorry, but single entity MLS has to find a business model other than ‘collect expansion fees and fund the league’s new initiatives.’

by Samuelson on Oct 25, 2010 4:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

It has NOTHING to do with expansion fees

I promise you that.

I couldn’t agree with you more that collect expansion fees is a terrible business model.

Be sure to visit Hot Time In Old Town SB Nation's blog for Chicago Fire, Soccer, & Chicago History

by HotTimeInOldTown on Oct 25, 2010 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

The $40 million expansion fee alone can't be what's keeping the league afloat.

I’m just assuming that, because it would be a downright dumb business plan. The recent wave of new franchises seem to be more financially healthy than the holdovers.

by yuniform on Oct 25, 2010 4:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

Though they might be lying liars...

…the league claimed only two teams earned a profit last season. Yeah, that’s probably before SUM money is taken into account, but if this truly is a league in the red still, it’s conceivable that the model—at least for the time being—is somewhat predicated on the expansion money.

by Samuelson on Oct 25, 2010 8:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

FS, I'm flattered

I can’t comment on his web site, so I’ll do it here. I’m flattered that I received not one, but two responses in the same day. Don Garber hasn’t even accomplished that (as far as I remember)…

The Indulgent Longwinded Criticism – I probably deserved most of this. I recently finished reading Atlas Shrugged, so you can probably recognize where some of this is coming from.

A Real Response – Better.

As I stated, it’s actually very difficult to have a real discussion about this with so few numbers available. Bash the writer of that paper for basing his discussion on the internet soccer community, but I pretty much did the same thing (and so do you for the most part). Beyond attendance numbers, there is precious little else available.

Regardless, I’m impressed that I evoked such a response out of you. You made Dave Clark think about it enough that he pulled it from the main page. I probably deserved that too.

Good day sir.

by K61 on Oct 25, 2010 9:13 PM PDT reply actions  

I pulled it from the front page because it didn't need that support

It got 100 comments and so can and will survive as a FanPost.

There is a Playoff series starting, and that will be the emphasis of most of the content.

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Oct 26, 2010 6:08 AM PDT up reply actions  

No worries Dave

That’s a much more honorable reason for pulling it than I insinuated. Thanks for maintaining this blog. I enjoy reading it alot and when I have “big ideas” or “deep thoughts” I’ve enjoyed posting to see what people think. I’m glad to know you’ll be back in the stadium next year despite the price hike. I won’t be at the playoff game this year (kids, trick-or-treating, you know the drill), but I’d like to come by and introduce myself next season.

by K61 on Oct 26, 2010 8:44 AM PDT up reply actions  

One last note for Fake Sigi
Filled with generous links to and distortions of posts I’ve made

I think you flatter yourself too much. There were 3 links, no direct quotes, and no distortions. Only one was more than a footnote and it was about “debt”. I don’t think I distorted anything you said.

You, however have distorted my post beyond recognition (even adding your own emphasis to direct quotes). My actual point was not burried in the comments, it was right at the top, before the break: “is it healthy for the league to continue expanding?”. I then answer that by explaining that the league needs to stop focusing on expansion success and it needs to start doing some house cleaning (something you’ve prescribed in the past in response to the website debacle). However, a complaint without a proposed solution has no value, so I proposed a solution. You were too blinded by the venue of my post (a site associated with Sounders fans) to take anything I said seriously. If I had posted this as a fanpost on Daily Soccer Fix instead you’d have had to find some other obnoxious way to react or you might even have been serious about it. Speaking of distortion, you’ve now distorted me into a black turtleneck wearin’, Tea Party votin’, Obamacare hater who lives in Seattle (is that even possible?). You should have at least bought me dinner first.

I will say that this has clarified in my mind the value of your blog (which obviously I read regularly) now that the rediculousness has been directed at me. It’s entertainment. Entertainment value in the same way that a mob gets value watching a street fight. When the fight is over, the mob will move on to something else and forget that a fight even occured. You’ve brought your mob over to this post and said “forget his message, look how I rip this guy appart.” I’ve been debating about actually giving you money (buying a subscription), but I realize now that the value that I get from your blog, I’ll just get from somewhere else when you quit. No need to pay for that kind of value. Your second response, while not insulting everyone’s intelligence, was hardly redeption from the first.

P.S. Given the above, Dave, why aren’t you taking subscriptions? The value you provide would be missed if you stopped.

by K61 on Oct 26, 2010 9:11 AM PDT up reply actions  

Sadly FS has become a seagull blogger

Fly in, s#!t all over someone, then fly away. Easy to do from within his echo chamber at the top of his ivory tower.

You will hear us on Brougham, you will hear us on Occidental, you will hear us on King. We are all around you, there is no escape.

by 108Ultra on Oct 26, 2010 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

Great article......

But I’d have to disagree about putting a franchise in Florida. The last one failed, and even MLB does terrible there.

Besides…….I don’t want Keller putting his hand in a gator’s mouth like in Happy Gilmore.

by AlbinoSounder on Oct 25, 2010 9:33 PM PDT reply actions  

The last TWO MLS clubs failed in Florida

And agreed, MLB is awful. I think something in Orlando ‘could’ work. But you’d need to build a stadium before you moved in. Really, it’s an awful summer-sports locale altogether.

by Shawn Gillogly on Oct 26, 2010 10:14 AM PDT up reply actions  

Far too much of Denver is reliant on Public Transport. At any given Avalanche, Nuggets or Rockies game about 30% of the people there probably took the light-rail, myself included among them. It takes literally 3 hours to get to Dick’s Sporting Goods Park via public transport from Downtown Denver, and until they finish the new light rail line that goes into Commerce City that’s probably going to remain the same. Fortunately such a light rail line is actually being built now so at least the city isn’t sitting on its laurels.

Considering the shoddy team that the Rapids have been putting on the pitch since 2006 and the difficulty getting to The Dick for those of us without cars or who prefer public transport, I’m not surprised at the low attendance, disappointed though I may be.

The Rapids probably won’t move if only for the following reason; Considering the amounts of money, time etc. that Stan put into building DSGP I highly doubt that it will go empty only a few years after it has been built.

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by UZ on Oct 26, 2010 8:49 PM PDT reply actions  

Light Rail

Are you talking about the FasTrack North Metro Corridor? It looks like that won’t open until 2019. Ouch.

by K61 on Oct 26, 2010 9:43 PM PDT up reply actions  

That’s the one. RTD has been building painfully slow because Coloradans are refusing to raise taxes and have been stifling RTD ever since approving FasTracks in the first place.

Offhand, that’s also why all of our colleges have such awful tuition.

I’m hoping RTD will wise up and at the very least make some more straight shot accessible bus routes up to Commerce City, DSGP in particular. The Broncos and Rockies both have specialty buses. That’s incredibly doubtful if there’s no more revenue from tax money to RTD this year though. They’re already estimating 18 million dollars of debt next year.

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by UZ on Oct 27, 2010 3:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

I believe a team that owns its own stadium breaks even at an attendance of 12-13k.
Those teams that do not own their own stadium breaks even at about 14-15k.
I base this on the small stadium sizes that are being planed.

The smallest is San Jose, which has plans for a 15k stadium.
At 80% of 15k = 12k which should be the break even point.

Many of these stadiums also have income from concerts, special events, other teams using the stadium, parking etc. It also depends on how much they sell tickets for.

If a team has a DP then the extra money to cover their salary has to come from other places. I think some teams are banking on selling kits and other merchandise to pay for DP’s salary?

Another thing that needs to be factored in is that the owners of the teams in the MLS are all extremely wealthy. With this in mind any financial loss that the team may suffer can be considered a business loss. Therefore I don’t think we should be too concerned about the MLS teams financial situations.

Then there is also the fact that the MLS operates under a single-entity structure in which teams are centrally controlled by the league. In order to keep costs under control, revenues are shared throughout the league. Individual teams do not suffer profits or losses but are shared with all teams within the league. But I am sure that all teams would like to show that they are a positive contributor.

by Boca Sounders on Oct 28, 2010 1:17 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

I think you are basing so much on so many assumptions

that you can’t really come to a conclusion. Unless you’ve factored in many many other things and just didn’t mention it here, I have no idea how you can assume certain attendance levels are break even points. Land in Carson or Seattle or NY is exponentially more expensive than land in Kansas City or Columbus or Dallas. You have to factor interest rates, construction costs… types of amenities added into the stadiums… I think every stadium is its own special case.

by chrisperry1983 on Oct 28, 2010 10:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

By the way, if you’re doing research you’re not doing it very well because DSGP has an even larger soccer complex surrounding it than Pizza Hut Park does. If that’s the only thing keeping a team with 3K fewer fans per game above Colorado, I think you’ve lost the plot.

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by UZ on Oct 30, 2010 9:45 AM PDT reply actions  

Agreed

Colorado did not belong in the possible relocation group. The stadium is practically brand new (4 years old) and as you point out there’s opporutnity for other income from their property and the big problem of the stadium being so far away from Denver will be addressed when Light Rail arrives.

FWIW, I don’t think NE belongs there either. Their attendance is poor (down again this year), but they don’t pay rent on their stadium, and their ownership group appears to be “working with various people” on selecting a site for a new stadium.

by K61 on Oct 30, 2010 3:37 PM PDT up reply actions  

I know I'm late to the party ...

This article is a pile of crap. OK, I can appreciate that the writer is an enthusiastic newbie, and that he’s done quite a bit of research and assembled his facts to make his case. But in the end, while you can take a pile of crap and sculpt it into an exact replica of Devils Tower, you still have a pile of crap.

First of all, as other posters have pointed out, we’ve tried soccer in Miami and Tampa Bay. Fail. The Heat might actually get some fans for once with their trio, but every sport save for American football has struggled in the Sunshine State. And even at that, Jacksonville always comes up in any discussion of NFL relocation possibilities.

Speaking of other leagues, relocation is no panacea there. In the NFL, the Raiders went to LA and came back. In the NHL, the Winnipeg Jets became the Phoenix Coyotes, and now they’re considering heading back to Winnipeg. The Washington Senators won’t do any better at the gate in a few years than the Montreal Expos if that baseball team doesn’t get its act together. And people in Memphis and New Orleans just don’t care about the Grizzlies and the Hornets.

It’s very easy to sit there and move teams around on paper. It’s not like those other teams’ fans actually exist as far as you’re concerned. But what would really impress me is if you came up with an idea or two to answer this question: “Hey, how do we take this fan success in Seattle and export it to every other franchise in MLS?” That would be a much more intelligent question to examine, especially if you’re concerned about the league’s profitability.

After all, if the Rapids had done as well in Mile High as well as Seattle’s done at Qwest, they’d still be at Invesco. If DCU were doing as great in RFK as Seattle’s done at Qwest, they’d either have RFK refurbished or a new stadium. The story would be the same with every other team around the league.

You can write a term paper about it sourced so well as to make even the most hardened professor weep with joy, but if you’re asking a stupid question, you’re still going to get a stupid answer.

Ask the correct question instead. It’s the same question I’ve had since I went to Sounders’ A-League games in the mid-1990s, when a Seattle MLS team seemed as remote as could be: “How do we get more fans?”

by Oarboar on Nov 6, 2010 9:54 AM PDT reply actions  

Point-by-point

The list of possible relocation destinations was probably my worst researched point in the post. It wasn’t central to the message. I spent only a brief minute trying to remember some of the cities I’d heard about recent interest in and listed them. I agree that most of them are not viable candidates now, and I’m working on a follow up post which will explore possible relocation destinations with more attention.

Agread, relocation is not panacea. However, for every example of a failed relocation you can provide, I can provide probably 2 good examples. In the NBA, the Utah Jazz were originally in New Orleans and the Lakers were in Minniapolis before moving to LA. In the NFL, the Cardinals were failing in St. Loise before moving to Phoenix, and the Titans were failing in Houston before moving to Tenessee. Even in MLS, the Dynamo are doing slightly better in Houston than they were in San Jose. I could go on, but I won’t.

On the point of exporting the fan success to other cities, while I don’t take in on explicitly, I do point out that things like new stadiums and relocation are possible solutions. “New” is a very good color to most fans. Something “new” is often the catalyst for change in the popularity of a club. New clubs in Toronto, Seattle, and Philly have achived orbit in their first seasons and aren’t showing signs of slowing down. Portland and Vancouver appear to be ready for equally successful launches in 2011. A new stadium in New York has boosted the Red Bull’s success. KC and Houston will have new stadiums in urban areas next year that will surely boost their success. Relocating “old” underperforming teams to “new” markets is another way I propose exporting fan success.

So I guess what I’m saying is, I did start with that question in a way. However, my attempt to answer the question was focused on the league rather than individual teams.

by K61 on Nov 7, 2010 2:08 PM PST up reply actions  

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Sounder at Heart is a blog about the Seattle Sounders FC, with occasional forays into Democracy in Sports, Roster Management, Soccer Statistics and Life in Puget Sound. We are not the actual Sounders blog.

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