98.8% Chance of Making Playoffs


The Sounders downed Toronto yesterday in good form and fashion. It was good to see some pink in the crowd too.

Things I like:

1) Nathan Sturgis
Should be taking all dead-balls. Even goal kicks from our end. I don't care. The guy in green is sharper than Robin Hood.

2) Fingers
Don't bend at angles that Jeff Parke's did. I'll just pretend I didn't see that (at 1:46 in the highlight video above, I've rewatched it like 5 times now).

3) Kasey Keller
Do his kids throw fits worse than his? Seriously, the guy is a calming, soothing statue during post-game press conferences, but he gets mad. I do, however, empathize for Kasey, as Leo was kind of out of place and that last goal was kind of his fault. But I would not wish the wrath of Kasey on anybody.

However, the best part about this win is that it means another 3 points in the bank.

Looking at the playoff picture, it's getting down to... ah, screw it. Just look for yourself.


Above is a graph of team points of all the teams in the league. The bold green line is Seattle.


These numbers come from a fantastic number crunching site that compiles the stats during the season, uses some complex algorithms, and produces the chances of winning. Whether it's the chances of winning the championship, making the playoffs, or even next week's match, it's all very thorough. Oh, and it's got every league (even USSF D-2 and USL-2).

Hit the link to find the interactive (yesss!) graphs and tables. If you're bored, read the number methodology.

So, if you're like me at all, you'd take an interest in what these numbers mean, but are also generally too lazy to figure out where those numbers came from. For what it's worth, I personally think we're as good as in the playoffs with all of three MLS league games left. But, sometimes it helps to have some logic to your language.

The remaining season is Wizards away, Chivas, and Dynamo away. Of the three games, defeating the Wizards would essentially cement our place in the playoffs. The Red Bull beating the Whizz 1-0 yesterday also helped.

A 98.8% chance of making the playoffs is about as good as the forecast for rain this week. Given that it's Seattle and fall (leaves are changing), I figure that saying "It rains in Seattle every year in the fall" is a statistical certainty. I hope it can become the same way with the Sounders and MLS Playoffs.

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