Illustrated Sounder Stats and the Expansion Draft
by GreenST on Nov 1, 2010 2:58 PM PDT
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PrintHey, its your weekly Expansion Draft Post. No, our normal writers didn't do this one either. Honestly, when people like you can do stuff like this, you will continue to push us to do better. We plan on it. For now I've added some tags, and made certain that you can easily find our other Expansion Draft posts, fanposts and fanshots.
Thanks to the excellent Sounder At Heart community, I've spent an unhealthy amount of time poring over the data provided by dave and sidereal. While trying to figure out who I would protect in the upcoming expansion draft, I developed a MEL script which creates a graphical representation of any statistical data set. Below is a visualization of the Seattle Sounders 2010 season statistics for league play.
In the first image (Salary Analysis), circle size (area) is dictated by player salary while the circle brightness is a function of age. For example, a young cheap player like Sanna Nyassi is a small white dot. An older player with a large salary like Kasey Keller is a large black dot. The green ring represents minutes played divided by eligible minutes under contract. The blue ring is player rating. Players are arranged left to right on the x axis based on starts and games played.
via www.fileden.com
In this second image I tied circle size to Quality Minutes (player rating * minutes played) , brightness to PP90 and the green ring represents Offensive Output Percentage. OOP is the percentage of goals and assists that a player contributes. In this case I scaled the ring to equal 1 Montero unit, or roughly 25% of total team points.
*note that the green numbers indicate player points, not %.
via www.fileden.com
Unfortunately we as MLS fans don't have a wealth of statistical information to work with. I would love to see Passes Attempted and Completed which is such a vital indication of overall quality. Soon my aching nerd heart will drink deep at the well of MLS soccer statistics...but for now I'll fill in the rest with my gut. More after the jump.
Looking at the charts above with my fan hat on, I see how undeniably productive the triumvirate of Steve Zakuani, Fredy Montero and Blaise Nkufo are for this team. Defensively: Keller, Riley, Leo, Alonso, Parke and Ianni are soldiers who have stayed healthy despite multiple mid-week games, dislocated fingers and collisions with Conor Casey. In the potential stars realm: Nyassi, Fucito, Flaco and Sturgis are all young and have tremendous upside. Just returning from injury: Jaqua is a big body that seems to have learned from Blaise how to better play target forward. We also have a best XI defender in Mr. Hurtado.
That's 15 players before we even start discussing whether Brad Evans has a career ending injury. Why must you break my heart Garber!!!
Now wearing my GM hat, I see a fantastic return on my investment dollar from: Montero, Zakuani, Leo, Riley, Ianni,Alonso, Parke, Sturgis and Nyassi. Not only are they collectively making less than our former Swedish midfielder, they are all relatively young for their position. Next I look at our veteran leadership: Keller and Nkufo, each with large contracts and only one more year before retirement. Jaqua has struggled with a chronic injury and has a sizeable contract, yet is our only other target forward option after Blaise retires. Flaco is an interesting case, as he has a fantastic PP90, looks smooth on the ball, great touch, high IQ, yet can't break into the starting lineup. Alvaro is certainly skilled but may not be rugged enough for the poorly officiated MLS game. Fucito is lacking a decent sample size and has shown a worrying proclivity for injuries, but his explosive speed and knack for scoring goals coupled with youth and a tiny contract make him very hard to expose. Hurtado is a stud.
Given the above reasoning my protected list is as follows:
1. Fredy Montero
5. Jeff Parke
7. Leo Gonzalez
8. James Riley
10. Sanna Nyassi
11. Mike Fucito
12. Nate Jaqua
It's a gamble to expose our 2 DP's (Blaise and Alvaro Fernandez), but given their expense and the fact that one will retire soon, while the other can't crack our starting XI, it seems a calculated risk to me. Keller is certainly risky and my fellow season ticket holder is not a fan of this one. I just don't see either team using a pick on an expensive player who may retire. Ultimately I may add Keller to the list in place of Fucito, it all depends on the needs of Vancouver and Portland. What do you think?
FanPosts only represent the opinions of the poster, not of Sounder at Heart.
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Comments
I’d much rather keep Flaco than Nyassi. Sanna, while young and full of speed, shows a lack of soccer brain on a very regular basis. Flaco is much, much better than Sanna and I’d rather see him starting right now, not to mention in the future.
I would agree on all points.
Flaco is certainly a quality player. My bet is that neither Vancouver nor Portland would fill a DP slot with someone who doesn’t have superstar name recognition. Attracting DP’s to the MLS, especially places like Portland or Vancouver may be difficult, which would make him more attractive.
That said, just like Nkufo and Keller, if we lost Flaco I would cry. Not to mention destroy all traces of this blasphemous post.
i definitely agree...
nyassi i think is replaceable too. with estrada, evans and montano all available.
montano needs the breakthrough that nyassi got a month ago and then he will be amazing
THANK YOU.
I’m convinced all these people who are protecting Nyassi in their 11s don’t actually watch the games and see how completely lost this guy is on the field night in and night out.
yeah and I imagine we could sign someone who just has speed if that's what Sigi was concerned about losing
Without the skill side, not sure what he brings.
Win
Love the visualizations. Need them in poster size.
For your protected list, keep in mind that we only get a 12th protected after a player is taken, so that player might well be Jaqua.
Nos Audietis
Thank You
Here they are in poster size:
http://www.fileden.com/files/2010/11/1/3006353/Salary%20Large.jpg
http://www.fileden.com/files/2010/11/1/3006353/Output%20Large.jpg
I should have been clear on the 12th pick coming after we already lose a player. In the case of Jaqua being chosen I would actually protect Nkufo. We look like a different team without a target forward up top.
Those are posters...
are absloutely stunning. Great job with the visuals!!
Silly question
but can you put them in a circle, with responsibility index of zero being the center?
An axis of Keeper, Defender, Center Mids, Strikers, Wide Mids, Wide Defenders
At Noon would be Keller and at 6 would be Montero/Nkufo?
Just wondering. I’ve got a little project to which this display might relate.
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
Actually, I'm thinking in my comments
which is rather common for me. You should see how odd my thoughts are in a chat sometime…
Keller at 6, Montero Nkufo at noon, with Montero offset to whichever side has the wide players.
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
And no Sounders logo
please
Lastly, may I email you?
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
Responsibility Index
The responsibility Index is an interesting way to organize the two different charts (Ouput Leaders and Salary Analysis). It would be great to see the attempted passes/completed passes % integrated into the charts. Where can we get this info?
On players to protect, we have to start with a review of the starting 11 and then a review of the players who play down the center of the field that are on the bench. I’ll decide after the playoffs who repaces who. If our forwards can’t breakdown the defenders in the playoffs why protect them? If our midfield can’t hold possesion and link the back to the front why protect them? Finally if our backs can’t shut down the attackers in the playoffs why protect them? But if any of these three areas can out perform what is possible the best team in the league(galaxy) then you have to protect them! This is simplifying it but I’m halfway serious.
Good Job on the charts!
Unfortunately
I don’t know anywhere that keeps MLS pass percentage stats, or at least makes them public
Editor/writer at Sounder at Heart, North American soccer editor SB Nation and of course follow me on Twitter
by Jeremiah Oshan on Nov 2, 2010 8:29 AM PDT up reply actions
I know this is blasphemous
I don’t think you protect Sturgis. I think El Flaco’s inability to crack the starting 11 has more to do with language barrier and “team chemistry” than anything else- he showed up well into the Sounders firing on all cylinders, and Sigi wasn’t about to mess with what was obviously a good thing.
But all in all, who would anyone building a team take- Fernandez, or Sturgis? Fernandez, obviously.
I love how Sturgis has jumped in but unless the two expansion clubs fill their DP spots in the next couple of weeks (and if I were them, I wouldn’t announce any signings at all, no sense in exposing your hand to the opposition if you don’t have to) I would protect El Flaco.
Nkufo… where’d you get the “one more year” bit? Just curious, because him vs Jaqua seems to be the other big question on your list to me.
by Blue Eyed Buddhist on Nov 1, 2010 8:01 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
You're right, these were the toughest decisions for me.
Sturgis vs Flaco is definitely a game of chicken with the front offices to our north and south. If I was a GM, finding small contracts who didn’t eat up an international player spot would be a priority. I’m also assuming an ego component to the decision, given the resources it takes to add a DP to your roster, an opposing GM may want to make their own mark on personnel.
When Nkufo was signed I vaguely remember reading a quote from him regarding his contract length and believing how much more he has in the tank. I can’t find an article citing that right now so it could be my misunderstanding. Losing him would certainly be disastrous, not only is his he our best target option, but the quality of many players (Zak, Nyassi, Jaqua) has improved under his watch.
Your critique is certainly warranted. If I had to explain to our fans why we lost Kasey Keller, things may be different. My lack of responsibility in this matter surely emboldens my opinions.
Up the Sounders, Up the ECS!!!
Nkufo is on an 18 month contract
Alvaro’s is “more than 18 months” which probably means either 24 or 30.
But if you want them on the Sounders, why wouldn’t another team want them?
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
Thanks for the clarification
I see Flaco as a luxury for us at a position where we are deep with cheap options. Now that I realize his contract is longer than I expected, my belief we should expose him increases. Alvaro is a brilliant player and I love watching him handle the ball. He has the touch and IQ that make me feel I’m watching world class football in my backyard. What I’m afraid of is that he’s not suited for poorly officiated MLS style games, where the only assets are power and speed. Until the quality of our football increases, Fernandez seems to be less desirable as a DP option than a center half who is a rugged ball winner with the vision to distribute, Rafa Marquez-esque.
Flaco is certainly an excellent player, but if we lost him, we could address a position of weakness.
You’re right though, it’s highly debatable and dependent on the development of Nyassi. Another good point that soccerG brought up is that we don’t want to get an organizational reputation for discarding our young players. Uruguay is a great talent pool, we don’t want to burn our image in South American recruiting circles.
No team that signs someone to a two year deal wants to lose them after a few months
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
by Dave Clark on Nov 1, 2010 10:09 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
But Sturgis has a very significant history of injury
In fact, isn’t this is first really injury free professional season (and that it’s really a chronic issue, it’s just under control now is what I seem to remember reading somewhere in one of the Sturgis articles a month or so ago). I think he’s a lot more fragile and certainly doesn’t have more power or speed than Fernandez (and he’s also not really capable of significantly threatening in an attack, whereas Fernadez is, as we have seen).
Also, besides his contract length, isn’t Fernandez not really a DP except due to his transfer fee? Why wouldn’t any MLS club jump at the chance to snag a potentially spectacular, young, quality player fresh from a successful WC run for, say, $300K? Not many.
Keller is trickier and the argument has already been hashed out elsewhere on this site, but I just can’t see him not being protected for a variety of reasons.
I also personally think we need to protect Nkufo, but I can at least see your argument there. It’s a calculated risk; I don’t think I’d take it, but maybe the Sounders’ FO will. Nkufo is a pretty cheap DP and you have to think that both Vancouver and Portland will feel that they have a fairly decent chance of making good $ – good enough to risk a sub-$1M DP.
So, 2 players need to go off that list. I know it’s really hard to let go of these guys, but I think one of the CBs needs to come off the list. Yeah, it’s great to have a sub who’s one of the better defenders in MLS, but Graham is very solid and other positions have more glaring needs. I’d also probably drop Jaqua – he’s a big gray dot (one of the biggest) without much of a blue ring. ;) Plus, coming off pretty significant injury… The other option is to hope other teams aren’t buying into the Nyassi hype (which they very well might not be – he’s come back down to Earth recently) and risk him.
Excellent point about his history of injury
I wasn’t aware of the injury plagued seasons Sturgis experienced previously. According to the his bio on SoundersFC.com, he missed 9 league matches in 2007 with a calf strain, then missed all but 3 in 2008 with a hamstring strain.
I was also unaware of a large part of Flaco’s salary being a transfer fee, which will make him cheaper after this year. Taking that into account along with the injury history of Sturgis, I would agree that we should protect Fernandez instead of Sturgis.
Your argument for protecting Nkufo and removing one of the 3 CB’s is logical as well. If I assumed that Nkufo would be taken, then I would certainly protect him. Maybe remove Parke as we already have Hurtado with Graham as backup.
I do not think language is that big of a deal
Plenty of Sounders speak spanish.
Awesome Visual Representation!
Still it makes it difficult to decide who the protected 11 should be. Sitll comes down to gambling on allowing DPs or Keller to be exposed versus protecting the youth/depth.
Nos audietis in somniis
Nos audietis in altum
Thank you!
The expansion draft is terrifying. I hoped creating a visual representation would give me some sort of clarity but they are all bad choices. As someone who watched all the USOC matches at Starfire, I’ve grown attached to our reserves and the tremendous continuity of quality that they provide. Having Marshall/Graham at CB, with Fucito/Jaqua up front, we looked more like a starting XI than a reserve unit.
Maybe PDX/VAN will trade away their picks for future second round superdraft picks + allocation money?
Lets hope so on the trading away their picks scenario...
and November 24th (the day of the draft) will be a much happier day.
Nos audietis in somniis
Nos audietis in altum
My attempt...
Ok, I have been reading these posts for weeks now and they are all very interesting. Its fun to see other opinion on the players and your graphics are great. Here is my list with explanation below:
Hurtado
Parke
Ianni
Riley
Gonzalez
Alonso
Fernandez
Zakuani
Nkufo
Montero
Jaqua
No Keller? As stated in other posts, keller has a huge salary and only 1 year left. Would be a waste of a pick for 2 teams that have good goalkeepers already at smaller salaries.
Why Hurtado, Parke AND Ianni? Ianni is a great backup for CB or CDM. He is a valuble player and would be a valuble pickup for a team trying to build a experienced back line.
No Nyassi or Fucito? Both are unproven young players. To me most teams in the expansion draft are looking for experienced players who know the league. They also get first picks in the superdraft, they could draft a young college kid there. I say leave them both exposed and then if one gets picked. Protect the other one, that way we won’t lose both.
No Sturgis, Evans, or Seamon? By leaving Sturgis, Evans, Seamon, and Vagenas all exposed is a great idea. I fully expect Alonso and Fernandez to start in the central mid next year. If one of these 4 gets picked, select one of the others to protect.
Playing Devil's Advocate: In your scenario, I would expect Portland to take Evans or Sturgis
and Vancouver would take Nyassi or one of the two (Evans or Sturgis) not taken.
Nos audietis in somniis
Nos audietis in altum
Keller's contract
was only for 2 years (expires end of this season) and the expansion teams can renegotiation the contracts of the players they picked.
True
But it seems hard in this league to reduce someones salary.
Seattle
had reduced 2-3 player’s salaries this year.
I stand corrected. If you think we must protect Keller, then i would leave Ianni off the list, sadly. hopefully there will be better CB’s available.
Seattle
will most likely protect 3 CB’s. Ianni was key for seattle’s 2nd half turn around. I don’t have Riley protected given Seattle can easily find a replacement for RB.
I also disagree with Jaqua being protected cause you don’t pay players that kind of salary to be a backup player. Since N’kufo arrived and Jaqua coming off an injury, Jaqua’s playtime significantly reduced to a 2nd half sub.
Plus last i have heard seattle is close to resigning Keller to a 1 year contract so he’s pretty much gonna be protected.
Match Stats shown at the Stadium
This statistical analysis is terrific!
We need Quest Field to show Match Stats during the run of play for us Sounder fans like they have for the Seahawks;
Shots, Shots on Goal, Saves, Corners, Possession %, Yellows, Reds.
Now to have them sell Guiness Beer and watching the game with the option to check out the stats….ahh that’s my heaven!!!
Go Sounders!
There are plansfor the stats boards to be replaced with units that can display sports specific info
and more clearly display sponsorships.
This was my first suggestion as part of the Alliance Council
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
You sir
Are amazing. Well done. Cool background on the graphics, too.
On who you want to protect: I’d leave Gonzo and Sturgis exposed, and protect Fernandez and Keller.
Yes they are expensive, but my gut says that Gonzo is the weak link on that back line and that we can do better, and that Sturgis (though good) is not as good as Fernandez.
I don’t like leaving one-of Nkufo and Jaqua exposed until we’ve had a player picked, but I understand the logic.
Why protect Keller? Ethos, mostly. It’s a TERRIBLE day if Keller gets picked. I agree with the general logic that other teams aren’t going to spite-pick him, but I could see Portland legit. picking him even with their current keeper. Keller is just plain better.
Interesting
I agree with your findings.
The only thing I would change is put Fernandez at 11 and
move Mike to 12 and Nate 13 (off the list).
With Montero receiving his green card and Steve Z about to get his within the next week or two, gives the team the option to pick up more international players.
If Nate is picked in the expansion draft, we would have an opportunity to get a big young Target guy probably an international or a DP to take his place.
Keller
If we leave Keller exposed in the expansion draft
Vancouver is much more likely to go after Onstad,
Onstad was not protected in either of the last 2 expansion drafts and
I am sure he will not be protected this year.
Pat Onstad; 86er Vancouver, British Columbia (Houston) 6-4 goalkeeper age 42
Pat Onstad is rumored to maybe coming to Vancouver as Goalkeepers coach?
and Maybe a player/coach in the first year?
Portland will have another option to bring a home grown Goalkeeper home
that is about 11 years younger and a contract much cheaper than Keller’s,
Josh Saunders will probably be exposed in the expansion draft
he is from Grants Pass, Oregon (Los Angeles Galaxy) 6-4 Goalkeeper age 29
by Boca Sounders on Nov 2, 2010 4:30 PM PDT up reply actions
Whoever is chosen by Portland or Vancouver
I want to be the person that will get Fucito some minutes on the field in regular season/playoff play… I think at this point that is Jaqua or Nyassi. Sigi always brings out Jaqua and he usually does very little… he needs to give Fucito a shot.
Software - passing % and possession %
I heard there is a software that tracks the completed passing % for an individual and the possession % during a match for a team. The software is similar in function to when we are shown on TV the red hot area or concentration of lines that show a players movement during a game.
Is this true?
If it is true can this hardware be setup at Quest field for home matches?
Can our local TV affliate (KONG) use it?
Does it not exist, initial cost problem or the total broadcast infrastructure problem?
There are plenty of tools out there for leagues or teams to track that kind of data
The Sounders do use one of the programs.
They do not release the data (nor does any MLS team).
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
Trade opportunities
I think something that we must come to terms with is that no matter how perfect our protected list of 11 (+1) is, we almost certainly will lose one, and probably two of our favorite players. Well two out of our top 15 favorites anyway.
The real question I have is what we can do prior to the expansion draft to minimize our club’s losses. Can/should we trade existing Sounders for other team’s draft picks? Is it legal to make a stipulation in a trade that no more players are taken during the expansion draft (i.e. Jaqua to Portland for a second round pick and them NOT selecting any Seattle players)? Can/should we try and reduce roster size by trading multiple Sounders for a single higher quality prospect? (I’m betting DC/Houston/Philadelphia would be willing to trade a solid starter to us for what would be a couple starters for them).
Also, I know Ching has mentioned he would love to come back to Seattle, and whatever came of De Rosario’s discontent losing and not getting paid up in Toronto? I know they both have sizable contracts, but losing a Blaise/Jaqua/Fucito/Sana/Flaco to obtain one of those prizes seems a better use than to obtain nothing via an expansion draft loss.
Thoughts?
Yes
its legal for seattle to trade someone to an expansion team on the promise that they won’t select a sounder. RSL did that with their back up GK to Philly last expansion draft and philly didn’t take one from RSL.
Interesting
Is this a reasonable option for the Sounders? A good one? Thoughts?
by Little old me on Nov 5, 2010 2:47 AM PDT up reply actions
It is a reasonable option
and Hanauer has even mentioned it as a possibility
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Sounder At Heart
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