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If we assume a strike; when would it be?

I actually agree more with my colleague here, than I do with Ives on his Fox Soccer post. But if we think that Ives is right and a strike is still nearly certain, despite no announced deadline we can think about when those deadlines might be. The following four dates are the most likely ones that could be deadlines. Three are during the pre-season, but are important for various reasons, and though pre-season matches could harm MLS anyway.

They are not matches where a couple thousand at most will show up, but significant in other ways.

The first one is rather quick. It hurts MLS significantly, as it would likely end the run of the Crew in the CONCACAF Champions League. On March 9th the Crew face Toluca in the quarterfinals. A strike 24 hours from the start of that match means that this domestic labor dispute becomes the concern of international federations. USSF, CSA, FMF, as well as Guatemala, Honduras and Panama start to pay attention. While the Crew are unlikely to earn revenue during that match, it would elevate the level of the dispute to a much higher plane.


Star-divide

Date two is here in Seattle when the Sounders face the Timbers in front of well over 10,000 fans in the battle between two Cascadia sides - March 11. Instead of raising tens of thousands of dollars for charity if this were the strike date it would also dull the rivalry a bit just before its fires are to burn brightest. Normally pre-season matches are attended about as well as curling in non-Olympics years, but this one is a big deal. Two of the bright stars of MLS' future will dull a bit if there is a strike just prior to this match.

Date three is one that would cause the largest embarrassment to a major sponsor/owner, while also marring a competition that should see a full  Red Bull Arena.March 20thSantos with all its history and a player as great as Robinho could face an opponent of no one. Rather than 25,000 screaming fans for an amazing stadium and a marquee friendly, the Union could force a significant loss of funds and signal that the start of the season is almost certainly in jeopardy.

And of course First Kick on March 25th would signal that the season itself is in jeopardy. If the Union or League take it to the opening of the season and then strike/lockout that is a signal that one side sees a lack of good faith. Whichever side fires that shot isn't looking for a skirmish, but a tough and brutal fight.

This of course assumes a worst case scenario, and certain amount of gamesmanship from the Union or League. It isn't that I think that either side is right, but instead what dates maximize the impact of a strike/lockout. But its clear, if the League is locking out, the only date that makes sense is just prior to First Kick.

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Mid season

The best time to strike in terms of leverage would be just before the world cup. No games would be lost if it was resolved quickly and yet the owners would be under presure to resolve the issues before they walk over any positive press that comes from the World Cup. This would also be just before European friendly season, which every owner needs to draw in large crowds.

It also threatens CCL games and the playoffs. It’s at that point that the owners would be under the most pressure to resolve the conflict, so that’s when the strike will happen.

by blakec on Feb 26, 2010 6:32 PM PST reply actions  

In my opinion the sooner they strike the sooner its over with and they might as well start now and get this darn thing over with. It seems to me there won’t be any more talking until the union drops the idea of free agency or nothing. I’m not getting any tickets until all this uncertainty goes away and a new CBA is signed how ever long that’ll be.

by gstommylee on Feb 26, 2010 6:53 PM PST reply actions  

My guess would be mid-season

I think mid-season would be when they’d do it if it happens, most likely during the World Cup. It would have the lowest impact and allow sides to have some sort of a window of opportunity to resolve issues. Although ultimately, I hope the players drop most of the demands and realize the league can’t sustain those things for the time being

by chrisperry1983 on Feb 26, 2010 7:47 PM PST reply actions  

Why would they want to hold a strike at mid-season if it would have the lowest impact?

The point of a strike is to apply pressure to the other side. You do that by striking at a high-leverage time.

by katal on Feb 27, 2010 9:03 AM PST up reply actions  

Mid-season

It might not be as crazy as you think. If the strike starts during the World Cup, the only way it would end before teams start playing again is presumably if players are able to get some concessions. If they don’t, the strike stretches into the regular season and the owners start feeling the pain precisely when they should be enjoyed improved attendance and attention.

by Jeremiah Oshan on Feb 27, 2010 9:23 AM PST up reply actions  

why would they play games

On a CBA with which they disagree?

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by Dave Clark on Feb 26, 2010 8:03 PM PST via mobile reply actions  

It shows they aren't the unreasonable ones

They can claim that they’ve given the owners every chance in the world to settle, including playing half a season without a new CBA. Only resorting to the strike as a last resort….

by blakec on Feb 26, 2010 10:28 PM PST up reply actions  

The league called their bluff

They didn’t want to strike, and now are not wanting to make themselves look bad because of the league’s move of saying they will not lock them out.

by chrisperry1983 on Feb 27, 2010 1:15 AM PST up reply actions  

The thing the keep in mind about strikes

Is that they are a means to an end, not an end of themselves. There seems to be this sense that the strike itself will accomplish something. In reality, it’s the threat of a strike that is meant to get something done. What I mean is that before a strike happens, the players will set a deadline (or the owners will set a lockout date) with the hope that fear of that date will drive the other side to get serious about bargaining.

That being said, if there’s going to be a strike, it will be on the later end of your scale. Plus, they’re going to want to get as much bang for their buck as possible. If I was planning the strike, I’d probably want it to happen after Red Bull’s opening and before the season really starts, so March 25 I guess. That way, you tease the owners with that success of the opener and still get the threat of really raining on the parade.

by Jeremiah Oshan on Feb 27, 2010 7:42 AM PST reply actions  

Mid season

I think Ives made this argument, but striking now makes no sense as the owners Lise mo revenue and the players don’t get paid.

Another plus for having the strike occur around the WC is there is the additional threat MLS may lose players overseas as they start preparing their rosters for their preseason.

by PeterJH on Feb 27, 2010 12:52 PM PST via mobile reply actions  

Players on strike would still be under contract

Plus, it doesn’t help their bargaining position.

League easily counters “Good enough for 4 months, but not the last two?”

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by Dave Clark on Feb 27, 2010 1:07 PM PST up reply actions  

Easily countered

“we were trying to negotiate in good faith for the good of the game in the States, and it obviously didn’t work.”. The only leverage the players got is the threat of a strike. The threat is only of use if they are actually willing to do it. I can’t think of a better time for the players to pull the plug than after the world cup.

by PeterJH on Feb 27, 2010 5:15 PM PST via mobile up reply actions  

Transfer window

Yeah, I think they will definitly go before the transfer window so as many as possible can get to other teams. That’s a good point. Plus the strike would chill any post world cup DP transfers that the owners are looking toward. A serveral players have been rumored to be “on the way to MLS” post world cup.

by blakec on Feb 27, 2010 4:35 PM PST up reply actions  

Striking players are still under contract

I doubt the league would sign their transfer papers as required by FIFA.

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by Dave Clark on Feb 27, 2010 5:17 PM PST up reply actions  

Will the Recession effect MLS Labor Issues?

But in this economy are the players going to get any sympathy from fans?

If there were games with scabs, would that be good enough?

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by Dave Clark on Feb 27, 2010 6:56 PM PST reply actions  

I would be very down on games with scabs.

Where would they get their players? Would USL/NASL players jump ship?

It would be a huge test of “support the team, not the player.” Because, would that really count as “the team”?

by Cornchops on Feb 27, 2010 7:56 PM PST up reply actions  

Look at the long list of MLS trialists that just miss

How many would take the opportunity? The NFL found enough during their ‘87 strike. And that player pool isn’t as large.

Oh, and I think the last pro sports strike during a recession was 1982

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I am not a Fan
I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Feb 27, 2010 8:53 PM PST up reply actions  

1982 NFL strike was during recession

Fans did not take kindly if news reports are to believed.

by Jeremiah Oshan on Feb 28, 2010 12:02 AM PST up reply actions  

But the perception is way different

The NFL playes were percieved as millionaires striking for more millions. I don’t think anyone holds that perception of the vast majority of MLS players.

by blakec on Feb 28, 2010 7:44 AM PST up reply actions  

Will the guy who's been unemployed for 2 years care?

10.8% unemployment in the USA right now.

While high-info fans likely sympathize with the players, most fans aren’t high info. They will likely just see pro athletes on strike and think the same as always.

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by Dave Clark on Feb 28, 2010 7:57 AM PST up reply actions  

That proves the point

In fact, they weren’t millionaires back then. Average NFL salary was less than $100,000 back then.

by Jeremiah Oshan on Feb 28, 2010 8:05 AM PST up reply actions  

A measured look

The Columbus Dispatch does a decent job of portraying possible scenarios.

by Jeremiah Oshan on Feb 28, 2010 8:42 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

Money quote
“(Ownership) here is saying, ’We’re not going to go there,’” said Raymond D. Sauer, chair of the Clemson University economics department. “This is a terrible time for the players to negotiate. Expenditures in any business are fueled by expectations of strong growth. The rug has been pulled out everywhere, and that strengthens the hand of the league.”

Both sides have the “nuclear option,” as Sauer referred to a work stoppage, but he doesn’t expect either side to use it.

I strongly rec that article.

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I am not a Fan
I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Feb 28, 2010 9:24 AM PST up reply actions  

Someone understands

There’s a lot of misinformation out there right now, mainly along the lines of “There is no CBA” and “the players have to strike if they don’t get a deal done by First Kick.” While opposing minds can disagree on the merits of the strike or lockout, the cold hard fact is that it is not a literal must.

This article lays out the situation in about as clear a way as possible, even citing the actual labor law.

2. Although the CBA has now expired, nearly all of its provisions remain in effect. Employers are required to collectively bargain in good faith under Section 8(a)(5) of the National Labor Relations Act (NLRA). Part of this duty includes maintaining the status quo established in the previous CBA as the two parties negotiate a new CBA. The status quo is protected as a matter of law, not under the contractual binds of the old CBA, and the employer may not alter its terms unilaterally, according to the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in Litton Financial Printing Division v. NLRB. Basically, the NLRA ensures MLS will function as it did under the previous CBA with a couple of key restrictions stripped away to permit either side to wield power at the bargaining table.

While I disagree with some of his opinions, best I can tell he gets all the facts right.

by Jeremiah Oshan on Mar 2, 2010 7:49 AM PST reply actions   1 recs

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