Jaqua not ineffecient use of money
by Dave Clark on Mar 4, 2010 6:52 PM PST
in Major League Soccer
70 comments
The Blaise Nkufo signing has people judging the merits of Nate Jaqua. He's been considered a failure despite putting up solid Goal and Assist numbers in the league. He was one of the best second forwards in the League last year by these measures, and when adjusted for a rate stat, he remains in the top.
Today I saw a new argument, that he was just too inefficient a use of the 208k that he made, so I added in salary to my PP90 number and valued each player by Points Per 90 per 100k of salary. This makes it a double rate, because I'm lazy I only did it for the players last year who will be in the league this year, and who made more than 200k. That made it only 27 players, we are missing Blanco, Vitti and Huckerby, but Jaqua was certainly better than all but Blanco, and rolly-polly made a ton of money, so it would be close.
Guess what? Nate Jaqua was 3rd. Yep, THIRD. Its a rate stat people. He scored goals, got assists. He was efficient, and of the high priced players he performed. Oh, and he really wanted to play in Seattle. Sure, he wasn't pretty, and he certainly isn't a classic Target Forward. But only Jeff Cunningham and Conor Casey were better values amongst the "rich" MLS players. The poor man's Brian Ching (that's Jaqua), just edged out Brian Ching. Go to the bottom of the list and you'll find the DPs.
Full Chart below the Jump
| Name | Salary | Minutes | Points | PP90 | PP90 per 100k |
| Cunningham | 219 | 1918 | 42 | 1.971 | 0.900 |
| Casey | 200 | 2087 | 33 | 1.423 | 0.712 |
| Jaqua | 208 | 2278 | 25 | 0.988 | 0.475 |
| Ching | 243 | 1549 | 19 | 1.104 | 0.454 |
| Moreno | 355 | 1240 | 21 | 1.524 | 0.429 |
| Wolff | 200 | 2348 | 22 | 0.843 | 0.422 |
| Kljestan | 203 | 2041 | 13 | 0.573 | 0.282 |
| Jankauskas | 240 | 667 | 5 | 0.675 | 0.281 |
| Ferriera | 300 | 2692 | 25 | 0.836 | 0.279 |
| Barrett | 203 | 2069 | 13 | 0.565 | 0.279 |
| Gomez | 321 | 1612 | 16 | 0.893 | 0.278 |
| DvdB | 227 | 2446 | 17 | 0.626 | 0.276 |
| DeRo | 426 | 2444 | 28 | 1.031 | 0.242 |
| Joseph | 450 | 2228 | 24 | 0.969 | 0.215 |
| Arnaud | 229 | 2214 | 12 | 0.488 | 0.213 |
| Fred | 257 | 1422 | 8 | 0.506 | 0.197 |
| McBride | 385 | 1963 | 16 | 0.734 | 0.191 |
| Mapp | 255 | 1013 | 5 | 0.444 | 0.174 |
| GBS | 775 | 1816 | 27 | 1.338 | 0.173 |
| Morales | 200 | 2076 | 7 | 0.303 | 0.152 |
| Donovan | 900 | 2152 | 30 | 1.255 | 0.139 |
| Emilio | 758 | 2070 | 22 | 0.957 | 0.126 |
| Corrales | 202 | 2066 | 3 | 0.131 | 0.065 |
| JPA | 1798 | 2133 | 26 | 1.097 | 0.061 |
| Ljungberg | 1314 | 1836 | 13 | 0.637 | 0.048 |
| Beckham | 6500 | 889 | 7 | 0.709 | 0.011 |
| de Guzman | 956 | 450 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
I'm notsaying that I want Jaqua more than others on this list, what I am saying is that if we are going to invent a measure of a player's effectiveness let's see what the numbers say before we condemn the man. I am also not saying that this is a complete image of who any of these players are.
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When you put it that way
it puts things in perspective for me. I am certainly not a Jaqua hater, but more than once I’ve questioned his role on the team. Numbers don’t lie. And his numbers pretty much kill the “he keeps getting lucky” argument. Kinda hard to get lucky 9 times.
He just produces
so many seem to overlook that. They just see a tall guy that doesn’t win headers at the rate they want and ignore what he does do well.
And, I think I called you out, and that’s not really fair. But the anti-Jaqua brigade is large.
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Large.
And they don’t care about your numbers.
I like Nate because he’s goofy looking. It’s good camouflage.
Quite the drop off from Cunningham to Casey to Nate. And then again from Wolff to Kljestan. With C&C, maybe Nate seems like a waste. But damn there’s a lot of players who make the same or more who produce a lot less.
Do their teams’ fans moan and groan as much as ours do?
This stat reminds me a little of the "value over replacement level: idea in baseball, though it’s not really the same thing.
He ain't what they think he is
Apologies to Dennis Green for my subject line.
I agree with you, Sounder at Heart. People see Jaqua size and think “target forward.” He’s not.
I hoping we’ll see Jaqua flourish in the outside midfield.
Thanks for running this, but a question
First off, thanks for computing all this. I feel honored my suggested stat was considered! :-)
However, I really do take issue with the 200k min. for analysis, as I think that their are a lot more efficient allocations that are being made that are in the 110k level.
I know it would be a lot of work, but I really think it should include people with a salary down to 100k. I have a feeling that a lot of people would jump Jaqua in goals per min per $.
Anyway, thanks for running it!
I'll see if I can talk someone into that
It would be worth doing, but I wanted to get something done tonight, so I thought this would be a first initial look
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And it was worthwhile
Because ethulin’s statement may be true, but it would still be worth noting when you think about all Jaqua’s limitations, that if he didn’t have any one of them (say, if he were a little bit quicker, to point out the most obvious one), he’d be making way, way more than Jaqua does now. It’s something worth thinking about when we start digging into hard analysis with more realistic choices.
'Gentlemen' he said,
'I don't need your organization,
I've shined your shoes,
moved your mountains and marked your cards,
but Eden is burning.
Either get ready for elimination,
or else your heart must have the courage,
for the changing of the guards.'
by Sgc on Mar 5, 2010 7:40 AM PST up reply actions
A reader sent me the numbers
Jaqua 32nd in players that played at least 50% of minutes in the league
72nd overall
26th by players with 10 or more points (2*G+A)
8th by those with more than 20 points
Only Levesque, Montero and Evans appear on the overall list above Jaqua.
The worst player that actually got a point was David Beckham, followed by Brian Carroll. Worst non-DP classified as a forward? Ali Gerba
It is a huge sheet, I may have time to plug it into the sidebar.
Thanks to Peter C who can be found at www.majorleaguesoccertalk.com and www.olr-blog.blogspot.com
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Extra Games
This new signing is all about depth at the end of the year. WIth Jaqua, The Freds, Blaze! (I hope thats how you pronounce Blaise cause that would be fantastic :)) and Roger L we have a great selection of forwards/attacking mids. Some can play the season game, others can play the CCL/Open Cup. Instead of throwing out bench players in our extra games we can put a quality team on the field. Its exciting to see a MLS team making a point to be competitive in every competition it will be in. With the depth we appear to be building we can field a good team in every game we play instead of relying on scrubs.
And
with the number of games we could potentially be playing, all players can feel that they make a significant contribution, even if they don’t play regular season games. It helps to keep the players both fresh and happy. Of course, the extra games don’t start until the end of June…
I think what would expose Jaqua hating stats
If you could calculate points per quality chance, I think you would see the Jaqua haters key stat. Seems like our games were loaded with groaner misses last year. Unlike the other sitter missing tripplets (Le Toux and Zakuani), Jaqua doesn’t have a game skill that makes him a fan favorite. He isn’t fast like Zak and didn’t have Le Toux’s work rate to make him a fan favorite. So, the hate rains down upon him.
Jaqua and Evans are always mysteries on what is their best position. Jaqua doesn’t seem to have the speed to play outside mid, the touch to be CAM, or the finishing skill to be a target forward. Evans is clearly most comfortable in the middle of the field, but doesn’t have the final pass vision to be a true CAM (though, he might develop this as he matures).
I think he works hard, but if he is going to be a forward, he needs to force a save out of the goal keeper a little more consistantly with his shots.
Not how statisticians go about it
I think you are right. I think this is the exact reason why fans hate Jaqua. However, that does not mean it is accurate from a statistics perspective.
We have the stat that Jaqua makes .988 points per 90. Now, we know this is very high as we can compare it against the other players listed above.
You point out that he seems to miss more than the average player, which is quite frustrating. However, from a game conclusion point of view, what really matters is how many goals you net. If, as you assert, he misses so many opportunities, for him to retain such a high rank in points per 90 he must be making many more chances per 90 than the average striker. Either way, he is netting more than average, even if he is missing more than average.
The kind of analysis I am propositioning here is a match conclusion centered approach which was first brought into sports in a big way by Michael M. Lewis. It avoids a lot of the pitfalls of statistics such as (goals scored)/(goals attempted), as these stats encourage players to take low risks at the expense of a positive match conclusion. The (goals scored)/(goals attempted) is very much like the “error” statistic in baseball. It seemed reasonable (good players don’t make errors) but it really punished outfielders who went the extra mile to try their damnedest for every ball (who had higher error rates). This is why baseball statisticians have all but abandoned ‘error’ as a statistical prediction tool. This also lead to the use of on base percentage over batting average.
Lewis vs Beane
I realize I was unclear in the piece above about Lewis and Beane. Beane brought sabermetrics to baseball. Lewis wrote about it in Moneyball.
On a side note
Notice how “Moneyball” hasn’t been as successful since Balco was discovered and they started testing for steroids.
Ok, OK
Let’s not get all Buzz Bissinger … sabermetics was around before Beane and the idea that understanding and utilizing stats continues to be and will probably always be better than the opposite. The Mariners are a great recent example.
by Jeremiah Oshan on Mar 5, 2010 7:44 AM PST up reply actions
I'm not bashing Sabermetrics
I understand it’s a much better way of measuring players then what we had in the past. It’s just everyone held up Beane as if he was just plain smarter then every other GM in the game and then half of his all stars got caught with steroids or the clear. Once testing started, his ability to find the diamonds in the rough seems to have also dried up.
Genius thru modern chemistry.
As far as Beane goes...
“Moneyball” wasn’t so much about Beane as it was the idea of people using statistics to revolutionize the way baseball is managed. Whether Beane has been successful or not since then hardly proves anything.
by Jeremiah Oshan on Mar 5, 2010 1:21 PM PST up reply actions
And to prove I'm not too much of a homer
Let’s bash the Mariners.
Our ratio of bringing up talent from the farm system hasn’t exactly been stellar since we had that minor league steroid bust a few years back.
No homerism implied
My point was that just about every team in baseball is using something we could loosely term sabermetics. Whether or not some players were tied to illegal drugs doesn’t at all weaken the case that almost every GM in baseball now understands how important it is to look past Avg, HR and RBI or ERA and Ws.
by Jeremiah Oshan on Mar 5, 2010 1:15 PM PST up reply actions
Ortiz was discovered
and brought up to have those skills, after being ignored by others.
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Well
In baseball they have the error stats to look at for missing easy chances. It’s not the attempt at a hard play that is killing Jaqua with the fans, it’s that he heads the ball up instead of toward the net when he wins a header. It’s that he hits the ball wide instead of on net when he is under 15 yards from net.
If the offense is generating a large number of chances per 90 and Jaqua makes a quality chance off of those only 10% of the time, he could still have a high PP90, but still be a bad player.
But the E stat is one of the ones the insiders no longer look at
Because it’s so subjective. Range factor plots where every ball was hit and whether you recorded an out or not, and that’s it.
“it’s that he heads the ball up instead of toward the net when he wins a header. It’s that he hits the ball wide instead of on net when he is under 15 yards from net.”
But the point si there’s more than one way to skin a cat. If in a given game he fails to put it on net on an easy header, but assists on a goal, it’s a net gain. (Most shots on goal are still saved.)
'Gentlemen' he said,
'I don't need your organization,
I've shined your shoes,
moved your mountains and marked your cards,
but Eden is burning.
Either get ready for elimination,
or else your heart must have the courage,
for the changing of the guards.'
by Sgc on Mar 5, 2010 8:08 AM PST up reply actions
In the end it comes down to an eye test. Do you feel that he finishes the chance that an average striker would finish? Does he create more chances for others then the average playmaker would make.
Zak gets a break because we are all drooling over his ability to blow by guys. We feel that he will eventually turn those obvious advantage plays into goals for our team. We don’t percieve the same upside for Jaqua, so boo city. The one advantage he does have, size, seems to be misfit with his skill set.
How do you define finishing?
If it is shots on goal that become actual goals, Jaqua is really good at that.
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I guess
I’d define is as “chances for a shot / quality attempt” ratio. Jaqua gets lots of attempts because we control the ball and work it into the box often. Does that mean he is a great player or that we shoot a lot.
You have two basic qualities you are looking for. How many times does he receive the ball in spots where he should get a shot off and doesn’t and how many times does he attempt a shot that doesn’t force a save from the keeper.
Just a basic run of the stats is informative
SOG/Shots
Montero 47%
Jaqua 34%
Zak 45%
Le Toux 44%
Ljungberg 51%
Evans 50%
Levesque 57% (on very limited chances)
And this doesn’t count the number of times that he doesn’t even get off a shot.
Other teams forwards
Ok, so to back this up, I did a quick survey of all the other teams forwards. I sorted each team by shots and did a calculation of SOG/Shots for the top three forwards listed.
As you can see, Jaqua is litterally the least accurate forward in the league. I asteriked anyone in the mid 30’s so you can easily pull them out.
Chicago
Rolfe 41%
McBride 46%
Nyarko 60%
Chivas
Braun 42%
Lillingston 47%
Gallindo 60%
Colorado
Casey 42%
Cummings 41%
Columbus
GBS 47%
Gaven 51%
Rogers 35% ************
DC
Emilio 49%
Pontius 41%
Moreno 63%
Dallas
Cunningham 53%
Cooper 55%
Ferriera 43%
Houston
Kamara 52%
Ching 53%
Orduro 42% (limited shots)
KC
Lopez 48%
Wolff 48%
Gomez 37% ********************
LA
Donovan 51%
Gordon 36% ****************
Buddle 50%
New England
Dube 48%
Mansally 35% ********************
Ralston 61%
New York Soft Drinks
JPA 45%
Kandji 51%
Wolyniec 38% *****************
RSL
Movsisyan 45%
Findley 43%
Espindola 44%
San Jose
Johnson 59%
Alverez 41%
Wondolowski 47%
Toronto
Barrett 45%
Vitti 48%
Dichio 47%
Now, I’m not arguing that this is the end all be all stat of how to judge a forward. But, I think it shows what people are reacting to with Jaqua.
blakec
no look at SOG that become goals
Here Zakuani and Jaqua are exact opposites, and I think this is part of finishing as well.
Because the point isn’t to shoot on goal, it is to score.
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ok, but last year was sort of an aberation
2009 56%
2008 66% (injured most of the year, low goals, shots and SOG, but very effective)
2007 36%
2006 47%
2005 29%
2004 21%
2003 28%
Career 37%
So, if he just has a career average year on goals per SOG, he goes back to 5 – 6 goals next year.
Like I said in the summary of those stats, it’s not the best measure of a forward. Goals are goals. But, I don’t think I’d want to be dead last in that measure either.
The maddening thing about that stat is, it’s not like he is bombing away on shots from 25 meters out or something. He is posting those sorts of inaccuracy numbers with an offensive game that is primarily 10 meters and closer.
The SOG to goals number supports that he is shooting from places that are almost always going to create goals if you can just hit the net. But he hasn’t been and that makes him frustrating to watch.
How many goals did each of those players score?
I don’t mind if Jaqua misses all the time. He scored more goals than almost all of those on your list.
What good is a shot if you knock it right at the keeper every time?
Er…wait…that’s what I always do. Damn.
Conner Casey
His game is essentially the same game as Jaqua. Rumble down the center channel and knock it past the keeper. If Jaqua was putting the shots on goal, he would challenge for the golden boot every year like Casey. His misses aren’t like misses from a forward that takes a pass 30 meters out, dribbles once and take a crack at goal. A lot more work goes into setting up those shots by the rest of the team.
It’s like having a center that can’t dunk in the NBA. The team works it around, get’s it low and then he doinks it off the rim. Sure he scores 20 a night, but the effort from the team should have yielded 30 from easy finishes.
He’s the Richie Sexson of soccer. The team works hard to get into scoring position and then he strikes out. Sure, he gets a lot of RBI’s, because any hit is going to get an RBI due to the guys in front of him busting butt to get on base. But, he is still hitting .230 and leaving guys on base left and right.
Missing those shots from close range is the soccer equivalent of having a bad slugging percentage and it hurts the team.
The team works hard to get him an easy opportunity...
…or he works his ass off to get into position to get a (sometimes off-balance, awkward, and improbable) shot off? This is another thing that is missed by measuring SOG/Shots, and one reason why I don’t think it is a very good measure. A lot of Jaqua’s opportunities were as a result of him working hard to win balls or timing things well to be in the right place at the right time. If everything works out, the ball goes in the back of the net. If anything goes the slightest bit wrong (the timing is off, the ball is deflected by a defender, etc.) he just worked hard to get a lunging, awakward-looking, low-probability attempt.
I think that's what was getting me
Everybody had their painful misses, but Jaqua seemed to have the most. Like I said in another thread, mistakes are remembered more than accomplishments.
by chrisperry1983 on Mar 5, 2010 8:43 AM PST up reply actions
I am trying to find a way to get Graham the data he needs
Right now the stats that are publically released just don’t have the granualarity that he needs.
But he has a decent idea of what to do.
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Double negative in headline not unconfusing
I misread it the first few times.
I think $200,000 is a good choice because $100,000 isn’t all that high. It’s in the 60th percentile of MLS salaries, versus Jaqua’s place in the 92nd percentile with his $208,121. 60th percentile seems like a stretch for “high priced”. $100,000 is also below the mean ($133,706) and above the median ($76,044), so it really strikes me as a very middle of the road number and it wouldn’t tell us very much about the cost effectiveness of retaining a player such as Jaqua.
One could argue that we could get two players making what Jaqua makes and perhaps come out ahead that way, but that’s forgetting two factors. First, there are only 11 spots on the field, and it may not be possible for both those players to get significant playing time. Second, there are a limited number of roster spots to begin with, and we might not be able fit the extra player in.
Another approach that might tell us something is to include everybody with a PP90 greater than or equal to Jaqua and see what they cost and how Jaqua ranks among that group. This would basically be like the “replacement cost” stat Cornchops mentioned.
Stats are indicators
But one thing they don’t point out is how hard Jaqua works. If you can get access to the video, go back to the game winning goal in the last regular season match against Dallas. Jaqua puts in an awesome effort coming back to win the ball which directly leads to the goal. Because he passed to Ljungberg, who then set up Evans, Jaqua didn’t get an assist, but without the extra effort he put in winning the ball on that play, we don’t win that game.
by PeterJH on Mar 4, 2010 11:31 PM PST via mobile reply actions
Yes.
I would disagree with anyone who takes issue with his work rate. He’s not as fast as Seba (though he’s faster than he looks), but he puts in a ton of minutes and works his butt of always.
Jaqua
9 goals is a decent haul for a season and it is a career high for him, just like it was a career high for games played. His production was down undoubtedly, scoring 6 last season with half the games played.
But his accuracy isn’t all that great, his touch is suspect at times, and sometimes he can be brilliant. His accuracy is consistent with Montero, who scores goals, and is often the subject of fan scrutiny because of over-optimistic shots or other missed opportunities to score or give an assist.
The fact that he has the size and can’t play an effect target throws is disappointing. It also moves other people out of position as well. Montero as a target forward wasn’t such a successful strategy and could be moved back out to the wing.
All told this move could likely be positive for Jaqua, he could do quite well as a sub and in the US Open Cup, where he seemed to have a more positive affect anyway. He’s a good deal for the money, but he’s still seems to be a rather obvious place to try and improve the team. The Sounders don’t have the personnel to play Sigi’s system effectively without the target forward to create opportunities.
Nate always has haters
Ever since joining the league Nate has had a huge number of haters, he is a solid player with a ton of potential and it is that last part that I think causes the issues. Everyone is waiting for him to break out and become a golden boot winner, but since he hasn’t they find reasons to dislike him.
Just a note the best deal in the league at forward has to be Robbie Findley, 73k for 12 goals, 4 assists and 1715 minutes of play in the regular season. Talk about a kid who is due a raise, and I know RSL is already making offers.
11th overall
but first amongst those with 10 or more goals
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Goff reports
Nkufo will make $550k. It seems like he will definitely be way down the list in terms of PP90/$100k. All those that make a lot need to produce a lot to demonstrate any equitable value with their cheaper counterparts.
Of course, I’m excited to have him.
I'm wondering if that is annual
Or just for the half season?
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Annual
At least that’s what Goff’s note implies:
*In a major move, the Seattle Sounders acquired Swiss national team forward Blaise Nkufo, who is expected to join the club after the World Cup. One source told me that he will earn the equivalent of $550,000 per season.
Wow!
A Jaqua thread with >30 comments and very little hate! We’re not in GS anymore…
I've said it before...
You don’t get guys that are his size, have speed, and can finish with their feet and their head for $200k a year in MLS. All of the people bitching and complaining about Jaqua get up Saturday mornings and watch EPL and then expect that level of talent from our players. Not gonna happen. Nate is a very good MLS player who goes out and leaves everything on the field and I’m more than happy to have him as a Sounder.
by foreleft on Mar 5, 2010 9:24 AM PST reply actions 1 recs
Agreed, but its really about comparing him to MLS
Is he above or below the line against the MLS? Personally, with his size, I’d like to see him put more of his headers on goal, or at least keep them alive and in play in the goal area. He does that, he justifies his existence on the field for me. Without that, I’d just as soon see Roger out there, who seems to be better with his head and with his nose for the goal.
But if there aren't good crosses coming in
And there aren’t with this team, is it the big guys fault?
Or is it that by nature this is a “ball on ground” type of team
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Did we have any header goals off crosses or corners?
I remember Zak’s header off a bounce; doesn’t count.
Roger’s header in PDX; USOC.
What else did we have with our heads?
We have strong header-ers, Zach, Ianni, Marshall. Did they score on any set pieces? The service wasn’t there even on set plays.
Marshall did have that header goal vs. DC… That was on a cross…
and yet were the best team in MLS at corners
by number of goals, and rate of conversion
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as long as they don't use their hands
I don’t care how they score
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I'm not counting
I’m not counting the “it doesn’t get to him” problems as his. I’d agree we don’t have the best service coming in from the corner. But if he gets to the ball, I expect him to have good skill at directing it on to net. I’ve seen enough of other guys putting the ball on net with their head to discount the idea that “the ball just flies funny” from our corners.
Keeping balls alive and in play
Although he can’t turn a hard shot on frame with his head from 15 yards (who in MLS can?) I think Jaqua is good at winning balls in the air – creating secondary balls that sometimes fall to teammates, sometimes he wins, and sometimes are lost to the other team.
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