What SPI thinks is that, in contrast to American squads from the recent past that were best known for their goalkeeping, this one is more offense-minded; its attack rates ninth in the world, according to SPI, but its defense is just 34th. The United States should figure it needs two goals to defeat England, since a clean sheet is unlikely -- and it'll need to watch against conceding soft goals against Slovenia and Algeria.
Nate Silver, of 538.com, Baseball Prospectus and Soccernet on Group C
When the numbers match my thoughts I like them even more. He's right though, this US team will succeed not based on its defense, nor its keeping, but instead if Donovan and whoever else is used on offense can actually put the ball in the net.
I dream of a day when I have access to that database.
almost 2 years ago
Dave Clark
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Ninth ranked attack?
I’m a little skeptical of that. I’ll have to take a look at what that’s based on before I credit that too much. If it’s purely on goal scoring or something like that, then I think the fact that the US plays a ton of games against CONCACAF opposition would tend to make that number a bit inflated.
Player performance in League play matters as well
He’s got an FAQ, but does not release full methodology. It is notable that the dominant teams of OFC, AFC and CAF don’t have the highly rated attack.
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
You doubt the great Nate Silver
Oh, you are in for a wold of hurt.
Because if it's not Love | Then it's the bomb ... | That will bring us together
by Jeremiah Oshan on Apr 29, 2010 7:27 PM PDT up reply actions
I know of Silver's statistical prowess
However, just because someone can come up with numbers doesn’t mean those numbers reflect reality. Anyone who’s dealt with data knows there are a lot of different ways analysis can skew and give misleading results.
Because because I can’t evaluate it methodology and possibly attempt to replicate his results, I’m always going to take his analysis with a grain of salt and unexpected results will be especially salty. Unverifiable statistics are just a half step away from anecdotal evidence in my book, and unfortunately that’s what Silver’s numbers are.
The closed book he has for soccer is quite odd
He also only uses data from a few of the top Euro leagues for pro-play, ignoring Donovan in MLS, etc.
But what he did in 2008 was just downright amazing.
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
I was going for hyperbole
Because if it's not Love | Then it's the bomb ... | That will bring us together
by Jeremiah Oshan on Apr 29, 2010 8:17 PM PDT up reply actions
What I remember about Nate is that his screen name on his political site was named after a hot pepper
Poblano. He had to identify himself when he started writing mainstream articles. Whether his football rankings are any good, it is too early to tell. Carlos is right. I think someday he might be fairly accurate, I am not sure if that time is now.
Nate Silver
He’s like the love child of Babe Ruth and Pele, but he took up statistics instead of sports. The guy is amazing.
by The King of Norway on Apr 30, 2010 9:18 AM PDT up reply actions
Funny
My mind is racing with all the insane queries I could run on a database like that. It would be the best of two of my worlds: computer geekdom combined with soccer. One can only dream.
It's not totally insane really
If you think about it the US is ranked 14th by the Fifa rankings. Which then all it says we are better offensively than 5 teams that are above us. I’m not sure that’s a ridiculous stretch…. although it still is a stretch.
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