Sounders 2010 Trendline

by Dave Clark on May 11, 2010 7:55 PM PDT in Sounders: MLS Regular Season

So to discover this trendline I've gone back and created from memory, reports on this site and reports at MLSscoccer.com judgements of the performance of the club by half. Each performance was placed onto a scale of between zero and three, and was judged as whether a team "deserved" to win that 45 minute period of time. I used 2 as a way to credit a performance that was good (but gave up multiple goals) or that was better than a tie, but not "deserving" of a win.

This method is not scientific, but in the future I plan on offering the readers a vote, as I think that crowd-sourcing should strengthen this measurement. I basically want to be able to see if there is a trend of improvement, stability or decline that is INDEPENDENT of the score.

Working backwards is certainly not the best way to do it, but it is the method that we have as I made a decision to do this recently, not at the beginning of the year. We will keep this up and maybe we can discover certain trends, possibly connecting them to player or formation shifts. Oddly the initial data shows that Seattle "deserved" a total of 12 points at this point in the year. Considering the odd call in Dallas and the stoppage time gaffs that feels like a fair estimate of true talent on the team.

That would only have the Sounders as 6th best team. Not great, barely even good. It would put them with Houston, Salt Lake and Colorado. Luck, bad breaks, and silly mental errors have Seattle in that stellar 13th place though. This passes the smell test. The Sounders really are a few moments of stoppage time from being a much better team.

Let's look at a graph with each half to this point rated as a separate event.

The team has yet to play a complete game where they have dominated both halves. They did match up a good 2nd half against Dallas with a good first half against Toronto, and after the second half against the Reds had that great half against the Crew.

But can we really say that the Sounders are trending down for the season? I don't know that I see that. Then again, I'm the one that did the ratings.

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You definitely love

to take on the difficult tasks, don’t you? Interesting stuff. It’s a little tenuous trying to quantify any of this stuff. The averages are always going to be skewed when, say, a team like Seattle loses while maintaining possession and getting shots off vs. winning and getting very few off. Unless you’re a pure possession team, these stats tend to vary fairly wildly from game to game, opponent to opponent, and form to form and often have no real bearing on the outcome. I suspect that to get a really good sense of whether this model is accurate, you’re going to have to have a larger data set (perhaps half a season?). Still, fun stuff. It would all be so much easier if possession and shots translated to wins reliably.

You point out that given a theoretical (and it IS highly theoretical, since we DID lose) scenario we could be in sixth. But that position is a lot more illusive when taking into account that seven teams have one game in hand, three have two in hand, and one has three in hand. All of that muddy’s the water even further. I’ve maintained all along that Seattle is NOT trending down…. that much of the rest of the league is trending up and we’ve stayed static. I think that’s mostly because we’ve had a ton of niggling injuries that are chipping away at our continuity and options. Get people back, gain some form, and this picture could be very different by the end of June.

I gotta give you props for this—I’da never even thunk of it!

by swansuite on May 12, 2010 7:18 AM PDT reply actions

A team that plays a bunker and counter

could still be rated well. It isn’t just about possession. It was about which team imposed its style and will upon the game.

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on May 12, 2010 8:46 AM PDT up reply actions

0's against LA?

I think we played better than a 0 in the first half. not that it makes a huge difference. I would even venture to say we were a 2 in the first half. we dominated possession. our passing was solid. we had a handful of opportunities, but didn’t finish. LA scored on their only opportunity…

also it should not that we have scored points in 5 of the 8 games we’ve played… when, not if, we start playing well, the ties will turn to wins, and the losses to ties…

by chinsmd on May 12, 2010 8:42 AM PDT reply actions

Central Third Possession is meaningless

The plethora of retreats into their own half were a huge problem. They didn’t pass backwards in order to reset the attack, but instead retreated.

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on May 12, 2010 8:48 AM PDT up reply actions

true

i agree with you…in fact that is Brad Evans’ specialty. pass it back to the defenders….

having said that..we had offensive possession. if it weren’t for some bad asssistant refereeing we may have tallied a couple. not only that, but Montero had a great chance with a volley that he sent high and wide. alonso had a couple cracks at it. I think we maintained good pressure.

take into account all this against a team that is dominating the league right now.

by chinsmd on May 12, 2010 9:17 AM PDT reply actions

Call it a 1 maybe?

The trendline doesn’t change much. The team overall is generally positive with a down slant in the last 3 halves. Overall the team is performing better than its record indicates.

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on May 12, 2010 9:30 AM PDT up reply actions