Is it Time to Flip Our Priorities?
by CarlosT on Jul 2, 2010 8:54 AM PDT
in Sounders: US Open Cup
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Given the sorry state of play currently from the Sounders, and the quite likely scenario that we won't make the playoffs this year, I'd like to propose that we adopt a different approach to the season than is the standard MLS template.
Normally, highest priority is given to MLS matches, while other competitions, even the Champions League, are the province of second stringers and youth players. Because this season has been so screwy already, I say the Sounders should embrace the wacky and flip the script 180 degrees.
As of the moment, the Sounders are second-to-last in the Western conference, and 11th overall. As Dave noted, even a huge improvement to a 50 percent win rate might not be enough to boost us into the playoffs. In these circumstances, MLS teams would continue to try to grind out results, and hope that several teams above them slip up enough for them to climb the ladder into that final playoff spot. Sometimes it works out and once you're in that crapshoot, anything can and has happened.
Every year, though, teams work and work to move up and succeed only in grabbing ninth or 10th. And there's no worse finishing position in MLS than ninth. Not only have you missed the playoffs, you've also probably missed out on the difference makers in next year's draft. It's especially bad this year because ninth lands you in the 10th draft spot instead of the eighth you would have gotten without expansion.
So I say forget trying to climb the MLS ladder. Let the kids run around in MLS, with just enough veteran rotation to keep them match fit, and put out all the big guns out there for the USOC and the Champions League. If the kids get wiped out in league play, all the better, because that means the Sounders will rise in next year's draft. Plus, all the extra minutes would serve to sharpen and develop their skills, which would be an investment for future seasons.
Meanwhile, our best players can come out and try to get us some silverware. This would probably be especially effective in the USOC, because the MLS teams that we would be facing later on would be following the normal script and prioritizing league play, and therefore putting their second teams out there. The Champions League would still be a hard slog, but we'd be giving ourselves our best chance.
Clearly, this would an extremely controversial decision. Loyal season-ticket holders would be seeing a lot of the second stringers and maybe a lot of losing. At the same time, a couple of unlucky bounces and we could end up crashing out early in the Cups, and have absolutely nothing to show for this season. Obviously, this would also be unthinkable in most leagues, because relegation is awaiting the bottom teams, not high draft picks. MLS is emphatically not one of those leagues though, and I think it's time for some out of the box thinking. It's a risky move, but nothing worthwhile is accomplished without risk.
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interesting thought
I do like trophies. Would this kind of philosophy make Nkufo, not to mention other potential DP’s, second guess coming to Seattle?
Interesting thought
I bet it might be a consideration if we consciously decided to “throw away” the regular season. I’m not sure if that’s such a smart idea, considering the ultimate goal is the MLS Cup. Also as Carlos mentions, we’re not paying season tickets to watch the B team lose a bunch of games all season long. (Although, that’s what we’ve been seeing with our A team).
Personally, I think I’m more along the lines of what you’re thinking. I think it’s obvious we’re not going to really get anywhere in the regular season (barring a miracle at this point) and it might be good to at least take the USOC a little more seriously than other teams probably are taking it, maybe to give us that little bit of an edge in moving on and winning it. Same with CCL. Although maybe other parts of CONCACAF take that a little more serious than the US does and we’d have to throw everything we’ve got at it.
by chrisperry1983 on Jul 2, 2010 10:15 AM PDT up reply actions
Playoffs are achievable
And once you get in, who knows? The playoff system favors the team with a little momentum.
I woudn’t be surprised, though, to see some focus on the CONCACAF Champions League. Win this tie with Metapan and you’ve got yourself three more matches that scream “ethnic marketing.”
Really?
You do realize that while you may be sitting towards the bottom of the Western Conference right now, that you are honestly 3 points our of a playoff spot. You never want to give up, just look at the incredible odds that RSL was facing on the final weekend last year. Yet they did what they could and things went their way, and as Alan said “Once you get in, who know?”.
Realistically you probably need to get to 42 points this year to make the playoffs, that means you need 27 from 48 possible. Now pick you heads up and go down to LA and bloody their noses by getting a result.
Denz
I never really know what to think of you. You are an odd guy. Sometimes you write stuff that I think is borderline troll territory, others you come in here like this and slap us around, tell us to quit crying, and write something inspiring. Sometimes I wonder what it’s like being on the outside looking in, I appreciate your viewpoints on this. I think we’re at an all time depressed low after losing back to back against two horrible teams. Maybe it’s not a miracle that’s needed after all, just for the team to get their heads straight and win some games with a little luck on the side?
by chrisperry1983 on Jul 2, 2010 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions
Sorry
I just think that your team and fans are a very interesting lot, I try to imagine what might have been had I not moved away 10 years ago. Would I be a Sounders fan? What would my expectations be? Then I remember what it has been like here in Salt Lake over the last 6 years, they joy of getting a team, the reality that MLS is a tough league to excel in (it is built that way), I remember the unbridled enthusiasm that was in Seattle last year when we came up for the first RSL match of the season and all those fans who thought you would win it all with ease last year. I remember those who were great to the RSL fans at MLS Cup, and how great the S@H crew have been to me.
Then I listen to what people write in their comments, I read their comments on big soccer, and around the league and I wonder how short sighted some of them are. Every person wants their team to be a winner, but most live in a reality that it can’t happen all the time, for some in Seattle it seems like they take it all for granted. Not all, but some, think that having great crowds (and you guys do) entitles the team to something.
I have said all along that you team has talent, you have gotten some big hits from injuries, and I think people now understand Steve, Ljungberg, and Montero better so it is harder for them to do well. I think if the fans keep the faith, if they continue to support the team and create a very tough place for other teams to play, that in the end you will be in the fight.
I am an odd guy, just ask the people around RSL, I live the life of a fan, but I also see the business and realities of the league. It provides me sometimes with a very different perspective of things. The only match that I think the Sounders can’t win out of the rest of their schedule will come in early September.
I get what you're saying
I think a lot of what you’re seeing is us as fans only having terrible teams in the city, then the Sounders coming in and making a name for themselves right off the bat, I think we all got so pumped that maybe we had something good going on here. Then to have it all come crashing down like this is understandably painful.
And don’t be sorry. I enjoy most of your posts. They’re just unconventional, I guess is the best way I could describe them
by chrisperry1983 on Jul 2, 2010 1:37 PM PDT up reply actions
3 points, but all teams on the edge have games in hand
You can’t just look at the points.
Seattle would have to WIN half its remaining matches just to be the 8 seed, and even then they could miss out.
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
Oh and that 27 of 48 is "all"
Only 5 teams have performed at that level to this point of the season, and ZERO have done it for as many games as the Sounders would need to hit that level of points won yet this year.
And again, as I stated last night, the second half is a tougher schedule for Seattle than the league average.
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
What are you basing 42 points on?
Past performance? This is a different year, more teams which means more points will likely be required. Not saying we’re out of it, but you do need to understand the current playoff picture better than you seem to.
We’re not really three points out of the playoffs, we’re almost .40 PPG off the pace. Basically, if current form holds, we’d finish 12 points out of the playoffs. The playoff cutoff mark is probably 44 points based on current form.
Making the playoffs is definitely not impossible, but it will require a significant turnaround.
Because if it's not Love | Then it's the bomb ... | That will bring us together
by Jeremiah Oshan on Jul 2, 2010 10:26 AM PDT up reply actions
Just to put more numbers to it
Sounders will likely have to average 1.81 PPG
Because if it's not Love | Then it's the bomb ... | That will bring us together
by Jeremiah Oshan on Jul 2, 2010 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions
In the past
it has been 40 points to make the playoffs, in fact last year was the first time (I believe) that a team with 40 didn’t make the playoffs. I remember a number of people looking at the increased number of teams and saying that they thought this year it would take 42 points to make the playoffs. sportsclubstats.com says that 42 points would give you about a 75% chance of making the playoffs.
You have to remember that your battle isn’t against LA and RSL as much as it is against Toronto, Houston, Colorado, San Jose and Chicago. If the focus is to make the playoffs and not win a conference then you can eliminate the top two teams from each conference (now LA, RSL, New York, and Columbus) and focus on getting a spot in the next 4.
I can only point you to this fact, after 14 matches last year RSL had 16 points, you are one off of that. I think there needs to be something to shake the team up, does that mean a big trade, does it mean a change in the staff, or does it mean something else? Not sure, but I do believe that the Sounders have the talent on their roster to make a run at a playoff spot.
For RSL they had a period where they were faced with the reality, they could pack it up and call it a season and just start to build for next year, or they could go out and fight for everything and see what would happen. One has to wonder what message is being sent to the Sounders players? I hope it is one that gets things turning around, you have the best fan base (notice I avoided saying best fans) in the league and they deserve more.
No one asking for the team to "pack it up"
What has been suggested is that they focus on the tournaments where they have a better chance to succeed.
Also, RSL didn’t have the CCL last year, and had already been knocked out of the US OC.
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
True
so we scheduled matches against Chivas and Club America, but didn’t have the travel that comes with the CCL. I just think it is far too early to shift focus like that. RSL never went on a huge run last year, and you never know what other teams will do. If you asked me if RSL could made it in week 17 when we had 20 points I would have said “yes”, heck even when people asked me in week 27 and had just 34 points the answer was the same. Maybe that is a bit too “cheerleady” for some but I have to admit I find it funny that it seems I have more faith in the Sounders than some of their own fans.
Winning the Open Cup is nice, but compared to MLS Cup, I would say not even close. The CCL is an interesting tournament, not one that favors the MLS based teams at all, and I would think the likelyhood of any MLS team to “succeed” in that one is a bit of a long shot.
A run is all it takes, if the Sounders can get on a little run, say 4 wins in 7 (DC, FCD, Hou, Chv) which is doable, then you are right back in the mix. I love that the Sounders put a lot into the Open Cup, it plays well with the clubs USL roots and I wish every team would play for keeps in the tourney but they don’t, and knowing that just tarnishes it a bit to me.
We still have two friendlies
One is confirmed as Celtic; the other is very likely Real Madrid
Three more Open Cup games and at least two more CCL matches, possibly 8
13 non-league matches and 16 league matches before the Playoffs.
Rest is going to be a huge issue, and I find it highly unlikely that a team should, on talent, be a top 4 team in this league could go on the kind of run needed to make the Playoffs. They would have to play the final 16 matches at a rate similar to the current Galaxy, Crew, RSL, Rapids
You think that Seattle can maintain that pace for 16 games? Because that’s what it takes for the Sounders to be the 8 SEED.
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
'More faith than some fans'
It will always be true that some people have more faith in a team than others. Invariably, some of those people will be outside the organization. There is nothing odd about it, especially when you consider we are probably looking at it from different vantage points. We’ve watched every game and are skeptical of the team suddenly turning around the season. You just see a team that hasn’t reached its potential. Both valid pov’s, but very different.
And just so we’re super, duper, abundantly clear, no one is suggesting we don’t try to win MLS games. The reality is that playing time for individual players will be dictated by circumstances. We used mostly backups during Portland because that’s what Sigi thought he needed to win. We’ll undoubtedly play a normal starting lineup against LAG on Sunday and more backups on Wednesday, which will probably be determined by fitness.
Beyond this week, who knows? I’m guessing if we lose to LAG, it will make Wednesday’s match more important but probably won’t change who plays. If we win Wednesday, then it gets a lot more interesting.
Because if it's not Love | Then it's the bomb ... | That will bring us together
by Jeremiah Oshan on Jul 2, 2010 4:28 PM PDT up reply actions
Carlos, I had been thinking the same thing, but it may be a game too early to really think about that
Let’s see how they do this weekend against LA. If they lose again that just puts them further in the hole. Then, they must decide quickly whether to go all out against LA in the Open Cup on Wednesday or not.
Doesn’t LA seem like they are a team of destiny this year?
I wouldn't be against it, necessarily.
I don’t think we’d have to send out the 2nd team every week. Basically, I’d want the first team playing once a week. So if we’ve got USOC or CCL, that’s what they’ll play. Other weeks, though, the first team can still play in league games.
The biggest problem with this scenario: If the second team starts winning. Embarrassing! Plus, then do you flip-flop the roles?
I think Fulham did this, to an extent. They were safe enough from relegation, arranged their priorities, and did well in the FA Cup and Europa League. Not quite well enough in the end, but impressive all the same.
They did have some complaints from opponents, though. Even official complaints, though nothing came of it. Does MLS have language regarding fielding the most competitive team available?
Actually, thinking about it now
It wouldn’t be that hard to go all in with the USOC. If we win againts LA, it’s one more game after that (presumably against Houston) and then the final against either DC or Columbus. I bet we could get the A-team out for three USOC games, maybe even still playing the A team for regular season games as well. Who knows…
Not quite ready to throw the current season
but I’m quite willing to have the A team play in the USOC and try to win it all, and possibly let a couple of regular season games suffer because of it.
Don’t throw the games, but consciously put the priority on USOC. That’s fine with me.
Now with more lemon bars!
by Fear on Jul 2, 2010 11:54 AM PDT reply actions 2 recs
yes, yes
Don’t think anyone is suggesting we should not try to win regular games, just that more emphasis should be placed on tourneys.
Because if it's not Love | Then it's the bomb ... | That will bring us together
by Jeremiah Oshan on Jul 2, 2010 12:03 PM PDT up reply actions
Then I agree.
I hold the USOC in pretty high regard, higher then most probably. Keep bringing silverware back to Seattle and it salvages what has been an abysmal season thus far.
Now with more lemon bars!
I'm curious what kind of weight the casual fan puts into a USOC trophy
If we bring home a trophy but finish out of the playoffs, what kind of reaction do you think there would be from the masses?
And I’m not saying this is a one or the other thing or that Carlos is suggesting we punt, I’m just curious what happens if it breaks that way.
A trophy is a trophy
especially one claiming to name you the best team in the U.S.
Now with more lemon bars!
Play all games to win....
and to do that thay you must put the best team available on the field, then do the same thing next game regardless of which competition it is.
For me, as a season ticket holder, it has to be that way. I want to beat the cr_p out of every team regardless. I expect the best players available to take the field. Trying to “manage” the line up for different competitions is a disaster. This year has proved that we don’t don’t have the depth of talent to do that.
It has cost us points and made our performance sketchy, and not mention the effect on less ardent supporters.
"Kia Kaha" -be strong
They haven't had to manage the lineup until the next match
So how has this year proven anything about managing multiple matches.
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
Actually, this isn't all that unrealistic and the current MLS season wouldn't have to be
thrown away to do it. How many USOC matches are left, if we win? 3? In weeks like this week, where we play 2 matches, just start the 2nd stringers in MLS and, yes, maybe take a beating, but it’s not like it’d be every week. CCL is, right now, only guaranteed to be 2 matches. There are, what, 15ish MLS matches left? That means that most of those matches wouldn’t be played by the backups.
With the Open Cup, the CCL and two more friendlies
There is a possibility that 10+ weeks will have doubles
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
Friendlies barely count
but that’s still 8 weeks. I guess that’s half of the remaining league matches, but that still means that the ‘A’ squad plays at least half of the remaining MLS matches.
I don’t think this will even be considered, since it kind of sends a poor message.
three more Open Cup at max
eight more CCL in that time at the max
that’s 11, ignoring the two friendlies
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
But some of those CCL
matches would fall outside of the regular season, right? At least during the time we would have been in the playoffs in any reasonable version of the world, right?
That's the knockout round
Group Stage runs from mid-Aug to mid-Oct
Three of the 6 matches are in Sept.
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
My feeling is that I want CCL every season possible.
In doing so, we must be successful in at least some arena.
There are three ways:
- Win the USOC
- Win the Supporters’ Shield
- Make it to the MLS Cup
We have pretty much no chance for #2, very little for #3. Time to go all in for #1.
While we might not have a great season overall, if we qualify for the next CCL, I consider that season a success. And how could you not? Considering what you have to do to qualify, any of those would be acceptable.
by Cornchops on Jul 2, 2010 1:35 PM PDT reply actions 2 recs
Dallas and toronto springs to mind...
when they juggled the starting line and how many points did we get from that
"Kia Kaha" -be strong
They haven't had to manage the lineup until the next match
They haven’t had to but they have tried… without success
"Kia Kaha" -be strong
As a half-season ticket holder, I'm totally ok with this.
Plus, the ‘kids’ (I don’t see Taylor Graham as a kid) played better than the Sounders did last Sunday
by Kirsten Schlewitz on Jul 2, 2010 2:54 PM PDT reply actions
He's younger than the other two CBs
on average at least
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
It wasn't much fun watching my sounders struggle against Portland
regardless of the outcome. We should just beat the &^% out of them and not let them build any sort of confidence against us. In a rivalry that is huge.
"Kia Kaha" -be strong
I know it's just an idea
but it’s a really bad one. This is crazy man.
Welcome to the Sound Pound...
Playing for trophies is crazy?
Because if it's not Love | Then it's the bomb ... | That will bring us together
by Jeremiah Oshan on Jul 2, 2010 5:11 PM PDT up reply actions
League fines or sanctions
Can we be fined or sanctioned by the MLS if we don’t try to field winning teams for our league? I recall that happening in the EPL last season when a team intentionally fielded a weaker team when playing Man U.
I do agree that we should take the USOC very serious though as it is going to be the best way for us to maintain a champions league opportunity. Plus I’d like to have some silverware.
It would be nice to make the playoffs, but chances do look slim. However MLS seems to be a very unpredictable and inconsistent league. Maybe we shouldn’t quite bank on not making the playoffs.
That would be a consideration, clearly
I know for my part, I want to see the Sounders win something this year. The Supporters’ Shield will not be happening. I don’t think the MLS Cup will be happening. That leaves us with two other possible trophies. The CCL is really tough and no MLS team has managed it since the format changed. The USOC is doable and therefore I’d love to see Keller hoist it again.
As some have mentioned, it might not need to be every week that the Sounders play the second team in MLS. If there isn’t a USOC or CCL match that week, then they should probably play the first team to keep them match fit.
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