Using Ljungberg Situation to Better Understand Transfers, Trades, Rumors and Speculation
by Dave Clark on Jul 12, 2010 8:32 PM PDT
in Major League Soccer
91 comments
By now it seems like most Sounders related sites have posted something regarding Ljungberg and a potential transfer/trade that may/may not be upcoming in the near, or not near future. Most of these are really speculation, not rumor. And nearly all are based off of data that relates in no way to Freddie Ljungberg's status.
First let's talk about the difference between a rumor, speculation and ideas. I think this matters, because many are calling the Freddie situation a rumor. Which, until this story, wasn't true.
Rumor - This is based on some amount of insider information. One with named sources is always more likely than one without named sources. Unnamed sources who at least provide a position or title have value. Website X has heard is a great way to say absolutely nothing.
In this case Hanauer has admitted that they are exploring offers for basically everyone. There is nothing that limits his statement to the Swede.
Speculation - When a writer attempts to read tea leaves to get some level of idea concerning a potential upcoming trade or transfer. This can be based on injury reports, house shopping, plane flights, etc. These are not rumors. There is no direct, nor indirect connection of a specific player to or from a specific club.
In the Ljungberg case this is what has happened when people saw a "mysterious" injury and concluded that it means that Ljungberg is moving onwards. It has continued when it was revealed that his locker location has moved. Of course, he could have actually been injured and wanted to sit closer/further from someone/something.
Idea - Literally when a writer says so-and-so is a good fit with club X. This happens when any analyst looks at various roster situations and thinks that a player could wind up somewhere. It is merely based on the talent, not on a rumor, nor on speculation.
Ives responded to tweeted idea that he thought it was a good fit. Not until today did he even speculate.
Trades - these happen within MLS. They can be for draft picks, other players, allocation order, or allocation dollars. They are not transfers. They do not involve cash outright, and the allocation dollars are always less than the allocation portion of a potential transfer to a foreign league.
If Ljungberg went to Red Bull New York, as some people seem to think is probable, the Sounders would not get the value for him that they would if they transfered him outside of MLS.
Transfers - these are cash payments given to the controlling club by another club. They are controlled by a primary and secondary window of opportunity. The MLS window opens on July 15 and is open for 30 days. The window that controls the transfer is the one of the receiving club.
The MLS transfer window has no relationship to whether or where Ljungberg may/may not be traded or transferred, except in that it allows the Sounders the ability to bring in another DP.
Let's review what we know about Ljungberg:
- Loves the greater Puget Sound
- Hates style of play in MLS
- Hates being subjected to paparazzi
- Enjoys teaching the younger players during practice
- Injury prone
- On injury report with minor ankle issue
- Didn't start last match (didn't appear in eight MLS matches last year)
- Locker has been moved, but still has locker
- MLS transfer window opens soon, but has nothing to do with ability to move Ljungberg
From this people have speculated that Ljungberg must be on his way out either via trade to New York Red Bulls, or via transfer out of the country. While they may be right, every single one that connects the MLS transfer window to this move except as an ability to fill the hole of his loss would wind up correct by accident. They were the stock traders of 2008.
Would it be smart to move Ljungberg? Probably. But only if the Sounders get at least 1M$ in transfer cash for him so that they could then spend the 650k$ allocation dollars on two DP quality players. It would be especially important to do that now as he is a Free in November, and letting a player move for nothing is always a bad idea.
Do I think that Ljungberg will be moved? Yes. Because the Sounders can get more for him now than losing him for nothing later. With the League season basically over they need to add two quality players to the roster and the only way to do that is to add significant allocation dollars. Only two players do that, the Freddyain. Get one extended through next year and transfer the other out of the league.
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quick thoughts
1) no freakin’ way Freddie’s going to NYRB… no… freakin’… way
2) the transfer window doesn’t affect the ability to ship Freddie OUT but it does affect the Seattle FL10 Exit Strategy. ‘Tis best to announce the formal addition of N’Kufo, the signing of another DP, and the exit of FL10 all at once (or all on the same day).
3) this is all being run by Rampant Internet Speculation™. RIS is known to afflict supporters who are depressed by the end of the World Cup and the disappointment of their hometown club
4) I really have no freakin’ clue, I’m just trying to piece together What Makes Sense
5) then there is this alleged “2-way ‘World Cup’ CM” and I have absolutely no idea what that even means, but, you know, I saw it somewhere on the internets machine…
6) transfer window drama is really a good bit of fun. Welcome to the global football universe, Seattle! we done growed up!
...that's MISTER Keller to you!!!
2 way CM of World Cup caliber - This is SPECULATION
implies someone not at the World Cup, but who could have been.
Either an injury, or a healthy player on a nation that just missed.
There’s that guy for Germany. There’s that guy for Ghana.
There’s Denisov of Russia?
And probably not WC caliber, but there’s my man Nashat Akram
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
no, Dave its Rampant Internet Speculation (tm)
...that's MISTER Keller to you!!!
by malcontentjake on Jul 12, 2010 9:42 PM PDT up reply actions
Wait, we're getting Michael Essien?!?!
by Aaron Campeau on Jul 12, 2010 10:20 PM PDT up reply actions
A midfielder who could have been on a WC team, but was not...
Oh. My. God. We’re about to acquire Ronaldinho!!!
by regnaD kciN on Jul 12, 2010 10:55 PM PDT up reply actions
FRANK LAMPARD IS FINALLY COMING TO ME
by Kirsten Schlewitz on Jul 13, 2010 8:27 AM PDT up reply actions
paparazzi?
In Seattle? Or are you talking in general? I thought everyone hated the pap’s, but didn’t know there was any in Seattle. I wonder if he likes the style of play of Holland better than MLS, has anyone kicked him dead in the chest?
Nope, no papparazi here
Which is why he likes it here, and would hate it in NYC.
And remember he did get knee-ed in the back for a major injury this year.
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
MLS is a glass house
From which no one should be tossing stones about rough play. Everybody is always saying that MLS is a “physical” league, which is just a PC way of saying “we’re not very skilled so we kick and foul constantly”.
I think it is more a lack of depth of players than saying that MLS as a whole is not skilled
There are skilled players and players that are not. I think the top players in MLS are comparable to the lesser leagues in Europe. It is the 9th, 10th and 11th man on the field (and bench players) in MLS that are substandard and play the physical style.
A-Rod
One time I met A-Rod on the street, gave him and Kate Hudson bad directions, then took their picture as they walked the north from the Westlake Center “toward” the stadium. I think that’s about the closest I’ll ever get to being a Papparazzi.
Cleats in chest is not Holland's style.
That’s why they’re so bad at it.
by Eastside Ajacied on Jul 13, 2010 9:45 PM PDT up reply actions
So just to be clear, we are not friends on facebook?
I swear people are so nutso when it comes to this stuff. Ives said it might work, it must be gold! Ughh, I’m reminded of the dad on south park.
Yeah, the way people make the jump reminded me of a South Park Episode
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4SgkfghupFE
When ideas are taken to be rumors is when people run into trouble. I feel like I’m taking crazy pills sometimes.
That's why
I don’t see Ljungberg going to NY. Seattle would be stupid to do such a move like that by trading him and not be able to get 2/3s of the transfer fee that one would get if they sell said player.
What if
They traded him to New York for Lindpere and Kandji? Who says no to that deal?
by murmur000 on Jul 12, 2010 11:18 PM PDT via mobile reply actions
hmm
I actually blame the coach, our defense and the midfield of Pete V, Evans, Sturgis, Ianni (not a midfielder), Montero’s lazy play, Levesque missed opportunities and injuries for a bunch of our losses.
Ljungberg is a great player and it would be wonderful if we could keep him and ditch the rest for some quality players.
If Montero played every games as well as he did last night I would want him too.
I was bummed that the FO made no such moves before the July 1st deadline for contracts. We could have at least ditched Vagenas and Sturgis for some good cash towards one single (better) player IMO
"July 1st deadline for contracts"...
As was explained at the time, the new CBA makes that deadline only applicable to players under 24 with less than three years experience. (I think those were the parameters, but they were close in any event.) Anyone older or with more years of experience — players like the ones you complain about — had their contracts guaranteed from the start of the season. The only players who could have been released by 7/1 to free up cap space are those very youngsters like Montaño, Seamon, Fucito and Estrada that fans have been clamoring for in place of non-performing vets like Vagenas, Noonan, and the like.
by regnaD kciN on Jul 13, 2010 12:56 AM PDT up reply actions
ahh
well regardless, I wish we could dump and bring someone else in.
As far as FL10 going to New York, has anyone looked to see if that is even possible?
Angel, Henry and Ljunberg? That seems like a lot of cash.
its speculation at the moment
that 3rd DP doesn’t have a cap hit.
But i just don’t see Seattle trading him to another MLS team.
They have deep pockets
Other than that, I don’t know all the technicalities of how that works
by chrisperry1983 on Jul 13, 2010 10:01 AM PDT up reply actions
This actually begs a legit question
I assumed NYRB had cap space … they don’t. I’m now very curious how they are pulling this off?
Because if it's not Love | Then it's the bomb ... | That will bring us together
by Jeremiah Oshan on Jul 13, 2010 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions
the only way
i can see NY could pull such a move is having to sell a DP (ie Angel) then using the allocation money to bring down contracts for 2 new DPs.
However it still brings the question does the 3rd DP slot has a cap hit.
Red Bull is evidence that 3rd DP has no hit
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
by Dave Clark on Jul 13, 2010 11:17 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Isn't it ironic that people use a player's perceived laziness as an excuse to be lazy about the merits of that player?
Do you know why Montero played better on Sunday? It’s because he was being used in a position that suits him much better.
My mind was blown
He was incredible. Let’s keep him there forever.
by chrisperry1983 on Jul 13, 2010 11:23 AM PDT up reply actions
I will take this opportunity to wildly speculate
that Forlan is the guy Hanauer is alluding to. I will now go poop my pants in excitement.
I wouldn't get my hopes up on that one
He’s under control at Ajax and if he’s going anywhere it will be to a big European side willing to pay a transfer fee in the 10s of millions.
Because if it's not Love | Then it's the bomb ... | That will bring us together
by Jeremiah Oshan on Jul 13, 2010 9:54 AM PDT up reply actions
I doubt he's referring to Luis Suarez
But if he is, no that’s not happening. No team in the MLS has even a sliver of hope of getting him. Ajax is asking about 40 million euros(so that would be $50-60M) for him now and Suarez only wants to move to a team that plays (European) Champions League football regularly.
But you can take your pick of what other Suarez he means: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suarez#Sports
wow that was more vague than I assumed
Because if it's not Love | Then it's the bomb ... | That will bring us together
by Jeremiah Oshan on Jul 13, 2010 10:29 AM PDT up reply actions
other possible DP
Anyone think of some other names? I was trying to think of possible midfielders that are at least 30 years old or more and probably not on the up swing. One name I came up with was Shinsuke Nakamura the Number 10 for Japan that just retired from International play. He is 32 and plays club football in Japan. Other possible ideas would be to trade Montero with someone from CSKA Moscow, if that was truly a viable rumor months ago.
yet another player over-the-cap NYRB are supposedly signing
Because if it's not Love | Then it's the bomb ... | That will bring us together
by Jeremiah Oshan on Jul 13, 2010 10:46 AM PDT up reply actions
It was definitely a rumor
I’m not sure what was so viable about it. Last I heard, the rumor generated from Montero’s agent and CSKA denied interest. Plus, is moving our best player really the best idea?
Because if it's not Love | Then it's the bomb ... | That will bring us together
by Jeremiah Oshan on Jul 13, 2010 10:44 AM PDT up reply actions
Best Player
There is some bad with the good of Montero. He is too lazy when he is off the ball as well as falling over very easily. I believe he has great skill holding the ball up and getting out of trouble. He makes a good pass and has a good foot for shooting. I would be ok if he stayed but one does wonder if the way he played on Sunday was due to the fact he was playing for the transfer window. I would have to think that some of these players can not help but have the transfer window in the back of their mind as they played this last week.
You wonder.
Other people that understand that high-level professional athletes are largely incapable of being lazy do not.
Seriously, this “Montero is lazy” thing is infuriating to me.
by Aaron Campeau on Jul 13, 2010 11:20 AM PDT up reply actions
lazy
call it what you will or not, if 8 out of 10 people in the same room see that heis not putting i the effort off the ball then you might come to the conclusion that said player is not putting in the effort. Even a Sigi was saying he liked Monteros “effort” in sundays game. So I if the word lazy does not work for you then ok no big deal but the fact remains that the guys has not put in the same kind of effort game in and game out that he put in this past Sunday.
I also agree he is a fantastic player and I am happy to see him stay but once again, for whatever reasons (maybe simple frustration due to midfield not getting him the ball enough) this is my view of the bad that comes with the good of Montero.
OK, let's go with 'take good with bad'
If the good is “he’s the best player on the pitch” and the bad is “he’s the best player on the team” I think I can tolerate taking the good with the bad.
Because if it's not Love | Then it's the bomb ... | That will bring us together
by Jeremiah Oshan on Jul 13, 2010 11:41 AM PDT up reply actions
In general I base my presumptions on fact rather than the opinions of others.
Grahm’s comment below sums it up; when he is playing as a withdrawn forward he has more freedom of movement. Central forwards do not and because Fredy is not a big guy like Jaqua people assume he is lazy rather than acknowledging that he’s playing out of position. Why people would impugn his character rather than accept a reasonable explanation I have no idea.
by Aaron Campeau on Jul 13, 2010 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions
Lazy or frustrated?
I don’t think that Montero is necessary lazy. He has a very deep skill set that one would assume comes from hours of practice.
However, there have been many games, including in the first part of the year, where he’s disappeared for long stretches of the game. Sometimes I think it’s a factor of him being repeatedly fouled by the opposing teams central defenders. That could definitely be related to him playing out of position as a central forward rather than a withdrawn forward.
The other problem that seems to crop up is him giving up on the game. We’re used to, and more forgiving, when young players get angry and frustrated leading to a bad tackle or a red card (e.g. Montano). However, it seems like FM, who is still pretty young, does the opposite. He gets frustrated and gives up on the game rather than trying to battle it out. The last game being a refreshing departure from the norm.
It seems to me like he’s worse about giving up on the game when FL is playing. I just get the feeling the two have no chemistry on or off the pitch.
I have only seen a few Sounders games
But in every one of those games Montero stood out as the best player on the field to me, or the second-best when Ljungberg was playing.
by Sander on Jul 13, 2010 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Jesus christ
Montero played better because he was being used as a withdrawn striker rather than a central forward. This role allows him to roam around the field and cause havoc, whereas a CF in this system will rarely get back (Jaqua, you’ll notice, was pretty lazy on Sunday).
Why is it that people think impugning someone’s professionalism is ok? You don’t know Fredy. You don’t know whether he’s the laziest person on the planet or someone who works hard at his craft.
by Graham on Jul 13, 2010 11:37 AM PDT up reply actions 5 recs
Other lazy players that would piss off Sounders fans
Brian McBride
Blaise Nkufo
Nate Jaqua
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
I am very glad that Gianfranco Zola did not retire to the MLS
I would have had to wipe out an entire fanbase for irrationally hating him due to his ‘lazy’ play
Sounder Youth Academy
The performance of the young midfield last game had me thinking about the state of the Sounders Youth Academy teams. They seem to be a key reason that D.C.‘s season isn’t a complete bomb. Can anyone recommend a blog or other site for analysis on the progress of Seattle’s Youth Academies?
We will update when we can
They haven’t been operational for even six months. But their first competitions are very soon.
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
by Dave Clark on Jul 13, 2010 11:29 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Thanks Dave
I appreciate all the good information here on Sounder at Heart. The MLS Youth Academies are a bit of a black box to me. I was talking a couple of weeks ago with someone deeply involved in youth soccer in Seattle and he didn’t know much more than I did. He was surprised that MLS teams get extra roster spots to sign home-grown talent.
So, I think there could be some demand for a very basic rundown on how the system works and how the Youth academy teams are doing when the games do start up. :-)
Thanks,
Dizzo
Development Academy National Tournament...
is under way. US Soccer has the details for each age group.
It appears that the only Seattle team that participates according to their team directory is the Washington Premier FC (U16 and U18 teams). Their team page is located here.
by MMAWrestling on Jul 13, 2010 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions
That is not the Sounders Academy
They will be at the Surf Cup (U-16s) and the SUM Cup (U-18s). SUM Cup is in Houston during the All-Star game stuff.
Surf Cup is San Diego
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
Yea, I saw that it wasn't...
But do you know what is with the differences in the two Washington academy teams compared to the Sounders Academy?
by MMAWrestling on Jul 13, 2010 1:09 PM PDT up reply actions
Primary difference is that the Sounders Academy players are coached by Sounders coaches
and can sign directly with the Sounders, off the Cap
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
Doesn't
Ljungberg have a no-trade clause in his contract with Seattle? That would pretty much kill the to NY rumor cause he would have to okay it.
This is a RUMOR
WeAreECS tweets JPA for Ljungberg
Which would shift Montero to Right Wing with JPA at WF and Blaise at the TF.
It has a certain appeal. And 3 Months of Ljungberg for 6 months of JPA is probably a decent enough idea. Yes, JPA’s contract runs out prior to the 2011 season, but it does last for early knockout round of CCL.
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
Now Dave, how is this different than speculation?
He says “we just heard” and he doesn’t name a source.
by Kirsten Schlewitz on Jul 13, 2010 7:59 PM PDT up reply actions
Well, it was a tweet
And I phoned him. There is a source behind it that could know something.
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
Just clarifying for the sake of the dear readers
who will be wondering if you’re contradicting yourself.
by Kirsten Schlewitz on Jul 13, 2010 8:06 PM PDT up reply actions
Wait a sec
So assuming this is true…we get JPA for 6 months? Hypothetically? Is this just a weird move to stay alive in CCL?
I have to admit, I did not see this coming at all. Here we are thinking RBNY could be scooping up two more DP’s (Ljungberg and whoever else) and suddenly JPA comes to us possibly? I feel like I’m in a soccer Twilight Zone right now. And the 6 months of having him seems like a big tease to us fans, only to have him yanked away.
by chrisperry1983 on Jul 13, 2010 9:08 PM PDT up reply actions
Imagine having him for the quarterfinals
and the semifinals of the CCL
but not having him for the league season and the the Final?
Welcome to players being “Cup Tied”
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Sounder At Heart
Yep..would be sweet
It’d also be pretty cool to keep him. Dunno if that makes sense logistically for the team though. Although, I do feel confident in our MF depth if he really does leave. But adding another forward just doesn’t seem to make sense, when we suddenly now have a lot of depth up front.
by chrisperry1983 on Jul 13, 2010 10:13 PM PDT up reply actions
Montero
isn’t going to remain a sounder forever. But who to say Seattle is actually done? They could still bring in another player.
I know Montero will be on the move eventually
I guess this is just the nature of the game and the league. Always gotta be one step ahead and keeping an eye out. I guess in my ideal fantasy world, we’d have a core team of 18 who we’re gonna have sticking together for years to come, and that will be the team we remember. Guys we bring up and play out their careers here. The Ryan Giggs of the Sounders. Not that Freddy/Freddie were ever going to be that, but this out of the blue stuff puts things into perspective a bit for me I suppose.
by chrisperry1983 on Jul 13, 2010 10:25 PM PDT up reply actions
just imagine
NY getting Freddie and only see him go back to Europe once his contract is up this November.
Presumably
They would have a pretty good shot at resigning Freddie. With the swede at coach and BFF Henry on the wing, Freddie might agree to stay.
To be honest, I think Freddie would take a contract if it was offered from Seattle. But, I don’t think they are wanting to offer him a new contract and he knows it.
doesn't make sense...
for a LOT of reasons…
or it may make sense…
I’ve confused even myself by trying to figure this out and my head hurts…
...that's MISTER Keller to you!!!
by malcontentjake on Jul 13, 2010 11:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Why would NY would trade WPA for Feddie
With WPA and Henry, they would have a very dangerous one two punch. Add Freddie and wow! Just Freddie and Henry wouldn’t be so dangerous. How much allocation does NY have? Could they take Freddie’s contract for allocation? This is essentially what we would get on an out of country transfer.
its still a rumor
but it makes the speculation of Freddie to NY more believable. The trouble is with the speculation what would we get of equal valve if we trade Freddie to NY. I don’t think NY has enough allocation money alone to make the trade actually happen.
Remember one of Seattle’s problems is lack of the ability to finish.
WPA???
Are you talking about that famous Chinese-Colombian player, Won Pablo Angel?
What to do with the Allocation?
Could the Sounders be preparing to buy down the DP slots. I thought the third one still counts against the cap, but from earlier posts I might be wrong. If not, then could they be going nuts and adding three players? First DP is a swap for Freddie. Second, they buy down with allocation from either NY or transfer and the third doesn’t count against the cap. Pay Nkufo 100k or so and give him allocation money for the rest of his contract. A. Han. said that Nkufo would most likely be a DP, but it won’t be for sure until the 15th. All this time. They know he is coming and they still are not 100% sure he will be placed in the DP role. That means to me that they are still holding out hope for something else.
yea that what i was hoping
for quite some time 3 DPs + Kufo. Key for that to work is allocation money and lots of it.
Even
having the 3rd DP not count against the cap would help.
even
then if adding 2 DPs with the freddie-JPA would be nice.
Some fantastic scouting and finishing
Three DP’s along with Nkufo would mean they have really done some work. They would have to convince three players of quality to come to the MLS. They would also have to be free transfers. This could be done, if it were a combination of Europe and South America, I think. The other thing would be international spots. Someone would have to be let go. Depending on the DP. DP most likely meaning quality, that would be worth it.
Like i said
it would need a lot of allocation money especially since we have guaranteed contracts to deal with.
International players and contracts
If only players with four years experience are garanteed, then we have a couple internationals that could be cut and kept on for Open Cup and Champions League games and I think international players are different than domestic. Someone correct me if I am wrong.
Not 100 percent sure on this...
But the allocation buy down only applies to the third DP slot. I think the first two definitely count as
$335k (or prorated) against cap
Because if it's not Love | Then it's the bomb ... | That will bring us together
by Jeremiah Oshan on Jul 13, 2010 11:21 PM PDT reply actions
what about
negotiating another year fro Freddie Ljunberg? Nobody has talked about that very much. Personally, I still feel like the midfield and the defense have not been able to get Freddie into the game as much this year. So I don’t have any big reason to lose him unless we can make out better somehow. Maybe Freddie is a bit frustrated with the way things are going this year however he does seem to like Seattle and seems to like the fact that Nkufo is on the way in. I would be pretty happy if there was a way to keep him and Nkufo as well as somehow getting 3rd if at all possible.
No to any 3rd DP
I’m against adding a 3rd DP. It eats up way too much cap space leaving little room for any kind of depth for the team. I don’t know how RBNY plans to swing having three DPs long-term. That’s my biggest problem with the RBNY rumors.
3rd DP
Can be paid down so that it essentially has no cap hit using allocation dollars. This is why a team like NYRB (who’s apparently capped out after signing Henry) can even afford to make a move like this.
Because if it's not Love | Then it's the bomb ... | That will bring us together
by Jeremiah Oshan on Jul 14, 2010 2:25 PM PDT up reply actions
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