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Quick Review: Sounders fall to Marathon 1-2 - stats, quotes and win probability

Seattle at Marathon Point Probability - Click for Full Image - Thanks to www.weaintgotnohistory.com

Well, if you are in a competition where the home team gets a near goal per game advantage and you start on the road, is a 2-1 loss really a surprise?

Yes, but only because for a stretch in the middle of the first half the Sounders had a solid chance at winning - about 50% with a draw at 25% as well.

A 75% chance to take points on the road in the CCL is HUGE.

A questionable PK call is bigger.

I'm not going to argue that it was the right/wrong call. I am going to declare that I was disappointed to see Tyrone Marshall on the pitch. Patrick Ianni has been doing quite well paired with Parke, and while Marshall does need to see the field soon, I'd rather that be in a double week (like next week, or the week after or the week after or the week after or the week after or the week after) and not now.

Seattle put up a solid showing. This was not a disappointing result. In fact it was the expectation going into this match. Home teams average two goals. Away teams average one.

But, there was a time when we, the Faithful, thought that victory was obtainable though not certain.

Next Wednesday Seattle is going to have to capitalize on that home advantage and pick up 3 points against a team that is stronger than they are.

And that's really what this loss means. Two road matches remain for Seattle to get 3 points on their path to 10 (2 wins and a draw at home).

Tonight Fredy Montero looked brilliant. Osvaldo Alonso as well. Nathan Sturgis still can't pass to the left and so Roger Levesque only managed to get the ball because the two forwards worked with him. Alvaro Fernandez was solid.

The substitution pattern still leaves something to be desired. There was youth and speed and ball-handling on the bench, but it went unused. The fascination with Flat-Corner Sturgis only makes sense because of his decent defensive ability and the shift from the Arrow into something more like a 4-2-3-1.

I'm ready to see the Arrow again. I want Michael Seamon as the Center Mid so that the left side of the offense gets the ball on occasion.

The loss sucks, but it was what we expected.

The graph provided is Win Probability in Soccer form. Graham has done a ton of work on his site setting up how it works. Go there for more.

That one call changed a ton. It may have been the right call, but the shift there was enormous.

Stats and quotes when we get them. NOW

Star-divide

Seattle Sounders FC

1

0

1

CD Marathón

2

0

2

Scoring Summary:

SEA - Roger Levesque (Blaise Nkufo, Fredy Montero) 17

MAR - Orvin Paz (Randy Diamond) 27

MAR - Nicolas Cardozo (penalty kick) 45+

CD Marathón - Shane Orio, Astor Henriquez, Adolfo Machado, Erick Norales, Nicolas Cardozo, Hector Amarilla (Rony Flores 45), Randy Diamond (Carlos Will Mejia 69), Orvin Paz, Carlos Palacios, Milton Palacios (Luis Santamaria 77), Mario Berrios.


Substitutes Not Used:
Nahun Avila, Fernando Castillo, Mario Cesar Rodriguez, Orlin Vallecillo.

TOTAL SHOTS: 10; SHOTS ON GOAL: 6; FOULS: 16; OFFSIDES: 5; CORNER KICKS: 6; SAVES: 6.

Seattle Sounders
FC - Kasey Keller, James Riley, Tyrone Marshall, Jeff Parke, Leo Gonzalez, Alvaro Fernandez (Michael Seamon 69), Osvaldo Alonso, Nathan Sturgis, Roger Levesque (David Estrada 87), Blaise Nkufo (Nate Jaqua 64), Fredy Montero.

Substitutes Not Used: Patrick Ianni, Terry Boss, Tyson Wahl, Mike Fucito.


TOTAL SHOTS: 15; SHOTS ON GOAL: 7; FOULS: 17; OFFSIDES: 2; CORNER KICKS: 5; SAVES: 4.

Misconduct Summary:

SEA - Tyrone Marshall 43'

MAR - Mario Berrios 49'

SEA - Leo Gonzalez 62'

Referee: Juan Carlos Guerra

Referee's Assistants: Hermenerito Leal; Ariel Mendez

4th Official: Jose Molina

Time of Game: 1:50

All Statistics contained in this boxscore are unofficial

Sounders FC Postgame Quotes

Sigi Schmid - Sounders FC Head Coach

(Opening Statement . . .) "We gave up two goals. The penalty I thought was a harsh call but it is what it is. In the second half I thought we pretty much had control of the game, dominated more of it, had four or five good chances in the second half. But obviously didn't score, hit the post a couple of times. So we are disappointed that we didn't come out with a point."

(On the goal . . .) "[Blaise] Nkufo got a touch on the ball that [Fredy] Montero knocked across. It was a great goal. Roger [Levesque] had another chance to score and change the course of the game. We need to do a better job when we are up by one."

(On moving forward from this match . . .) "We will take a look at what we did well and what we didn't do well. Their side obviously did their job."

(On the team's effort . . .) "I think our effort in the game, we didn't do well in the outset with [Carlos] Palacios on the one side and [Randy] Diamond on the other side. I think we were disjointed offensively. The last 20 minutes, 25 minutes of the game I thought we had very good energy. In the beginning of the game we didn't have good energy and we didn't see an awful lot of the ball. If you want to see the ball a lot you need to play hard. We need to be better next time."

(On team playing better from behind . . .) "In the first half, even when we got the goal in the first 20 minutes, we weren't doing well. We weren't focused. But I thought in the second half we made some good adjustments and I thought were able to sustain some pressure. The surface slowed the ball down a little bit for us. Our forwards dropped off a little too much. That was definitely an issue for us."

Kasey Keller - Sounders FC Goalkeeper

(On the game . . .) "We score goals and we are fine. When we don't, people beat us. It's frustrating. You figure, three points is three points. You get three at home, you get a couple draws. It's just disappointing. We thought we had changed it already but our energy in the first 20 minutes was a bit more selective. We have got to get more pressure on them. We all learn from experiences. It's a long trip. It's hot, humid, we are on a very slow pitch and we just couldn't figure it out. We have got five more games left in this competition and there's nothing to fear playing these teams. We can line up with these teams quite comfortably."

(On the penalty . . .) "The ball came over the top and it took a bad bounce. I didn't expect it to bounce that way. I called for Tyrone [Marshall] to head it to me but it didn't get there. I don't know how it was a penalty. I haven't seen the tape but it didn't look like a penalty to me. It looked like two guys swing and kick each others' legs and next thing you know the ball is in my hands and he [the referee] is signaling a foul. I don't know what he saw. It may have been good play by the striker but I don't know. That was frustrating. [. . .] But we had multiple chances at the end of the game to get something out of this. Once again, usually you would put in nine of 10 of them but it was just one of those days when it just wasn't going to happen. And that was probably the most frustrating. We know we were better and we should have done better."

Roger Levesque - Sounders FC Midfielder/Forward

(On his goal . . .) "[Fredy] Montero came down the right side and got the ball across. Blaise [Nkufo] dropped the ball off [. . .] and I was able to get the ball into the back post. [. . .]"

Comment 47 comments  |  1 recs  | 

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Don't really agree on El Flaco

I might be misremembering, but there were at least 5 or 6 passes he sent straight to Marathon. Not sure if it was the pitch (which was weirdly slow) or his attempt to speed up the game tempo.

And I’m getting to the point where I feel like a jerk talking about Nkufo, so I won’t. Still looking forward to him meshing with the team.

by sidereal on Aug 19, 2010 9:50 PM PDT reply actions  

You can bash Nkufo after that beautiful backheel to Levesque for the goal?

Really? That was gorgeous.

I wish Montero would have shot about 3 inches over in the 88th min or so and well, if that utterly stupid call was a PK for Marathon, then we should have gotten at least 2 PKs based on challenges in the box, but we at least played as well or better than Marathon most of the time.

by Nevtelen on Aug 20, 2010 1:19 AM PDT up reply actions  

whiff

thought Nfuko kind of whiffed on the backheel and it would have gotten through anyways… nice putaway by Levesque at any rate. Just seems to be damn hard for any MLS team to win down there.

by Irrlicht on Aug 20, 2010 6:02 AM PDT up reply actions  

Nkufo

His chemistry is not so good with the team right now but you can’t fault him for an absolutely beautiful bottom of the foot drag of a tough ball in the air. Levesque might have gotten the ball anyway, but instead of a slow roller that allows him to look and place, you would have to deal with a hard skipping ball. Great play by Montero and Nkufo.

by brokejumper on Aug 20, 2010 6:25 AM PDT up reply actions  

I don't think it would have at all

I thought so at first, but Nkufo didn’t only change the speed, he changed the angle of the ball. Levesque would have had to run at that ball, towards a defender, and had a much worse angle had it not been for Nkufo. Whatever else you think of Nkufo (and I tend to think he’s doing reasonable well overall, despite not getting great service yet), that backheel was fantastic.

by Nevtelen on Aug 20, 2010 8:49 AM PDT up reply actions  

Not bad, but just as frustrating

I agree with your sentiment about Marshall. I feel like I’ve been spoiled with Parke and Ianni, that going back to Marshall gives me flashbacks of those late half/game giveaway goals that plagued Seattle earlier in the season. Looking back at the second Philadelphia game, it made me wonder why Schmid would start Marshall given the heat and humidity.

Despite the loss, this game gave me hope we can make a good showing, and that it will be really important to win our home games.

by rabadash on Aug 19, 2010 10:26 PM PDT reply actions  

Marshall thugged a bit and had some now-classic Marshall displays

but that PK call was ridiculous. Marshall went for the clear, and that clown stuck his leg over mid-kick. He should’ve gotten a card for being a moron and risking his calf getting injured.

by chrisperry1983 on Aug 20, 2010 8:21 AM PDT reply actions  

What bothers me about the call

…is that had Marshall gone down and grabbed his shin, the call probably would have gone the other way. Marshall was clearly in position to kick the ball and was in the process of doing so when the guy reached over his leg. That’s a foul. The other way.

That sends a terrible message. If you go down, you get a call. If you try and play through a foul, which is exactly what Marshall was doing, you get a card. Sucks.

by Jack Brando on Aug 20, 2010 9:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

Bad call, tough break

Felt like ref had a chance for a makeup call late in the match when Alvaro? got taken down in box. Oh well, guess that just means we really need a win on Wednesday.

Because if it's not Love | Then it's the bomb ... | That will bring us together

by Jeremiah Oshan on Aug 20, 2010 8:35 AM PDT reply actions  

Well said about Marshall.

When he is on the pitch we seem to have numerous breakdowns defensively. Our shape and coverage are more spot on with Parke and Ianni. I lay this one at Sigi’s feet. He should know better by now.

by Sec 108 on Aug 20, 2010 8:52 AM PDT reply actions  

I think our whole defense was having a bad night

with the exception of maybe Parke. Marshall had a few blocks that were pretty money. But overall, something happened that was causing what looked like a systemic breakdown. Now having said that, I realize maybe that something was Marshall…

by chrisperry1983 on Aug 20, 2010 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions  

I know I have my limitations as an analyst of this game, but we are always losing guys when Marshall is back there.

Add to the fact he just blindly whacks at the ball and he is easily my least favorite Sounder.

by Sec 108 on Aug 20, 2010 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

I saw a lot of mindless whacks last night

But I agree with you on him in general. I wish he was a jerk, because it’d make hating him a lot easier. I really like the guy. I just don’t want him to play :)

by chrisperry1983 on Aug 20, 2010 11:55 AM PDT up reply actions  

"Mindless" hits the nail on the head.

Marshall is a skilled player capable of making great plays . . . when he puts his mind to it. Obviously, the latter isn’t always the case. He needs motivation. From Sigi. It’s been said many times before that coaching is half Xs and Os, half psychology

by Eastside Ajacied on Aug 20, 2010 9:39 PM PDT up reply actions  

What do you think of the Win/Probability Expectancy Chart?

I’d love to get your feedback on this tool

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Aug 20, 2010 9:18 AM PDT reply actions  

The WE chart is awesome.

Great job by Graham.

It may be best to do like he’s thinking of doing and only use part of the chart (the points part). With everything on it, the picture gets almost too small to make sense (until you click full size, but who knows if people do that).

by Brian Floyd on Aug 20, 2010 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions  

Oh, he's driving this baby

I can change the cropping to just the points version.

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Aug 20, 2010 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

I like this chart

Minor quibbles: I’m not sure if the vertical dashed lines or the horizontal dashes lines for two points is necessary.
Also, maybe the soccer balls could be color-coded red and blue for home and away.

by yuniform on Aug 20, 2010 1:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

Stuff on the bottom is for the away team, top is for home

Not really sure how to communicate that more effectively, but there you go.

by Graham MacAree on Aug 20, 2010 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

I like it

Is this set up to take into account red cards? (And maybe yellow cards, though I’m not sure if yellows make much of a noticeable difference in scoring rate.)

by ubelmann on Aug 20, 2010 4:41 PM PDT up reply actions  

I just looked at yellows

We’re looking at a delta in point value of around 0.02 per card, which is negligible for the amount of work required to implement

by Graham MacAree on Aug 20, 2010 6:35 PM PDT up reply actions  

I like it in other sports :)

I just think it’s a little too obvious in soccer, where the scoring is so rare. Yes, your chances of winning take a huge jump when you score a goal.

It’d be cool if it took into account non-scoring events, like cards, fouls, subs, or even ball position on the field. But obviously that’s much, much harder than using goals and time remaining.

There’s a great implementation for baseball in the book Curve Ball that takes into account runners, so you can see the chance of winning creep up as players take walks, etc.

by sidereal on Aug 20, 2010 2:09 PM PDT up reply actions  

It does take into account Red Cards, a yellow doesn't really change anything

Graham is very familiar with the baseball work, considering all the time he spent writing for lookout landing.

But this model takes into account homefield advantage, and the advantage of accuracy over guessing.

I’m certain Graham is doing work on finding other things to include

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Aug 20, 2010 2:15 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ah, didn't realize red cards were in there

I assume a yellow would actually change something (in that it increases the likelihood of a later red and, in a much harder to quantify way, changes the play of the player with the caution).

I don’t mean to impugn the hard work of Graham.. . just being honest about how much harder it is to quantify momentum and advantage in soccer, with its continuous play and almost total lack of good stats.

For example, I think a ‘perfect’ analysis of the Sounders win chances toward the end of the game would have given them a much higher expectation than the clock and score would indicate, given that they were almost camping out in the Marathon box and were just unlucky not to get something in.

Maybe trying to quantify the ‘advantage’ of a team by comparing shots and shots-on-goal stats over the last few minutes and baking that into the win probability would capture some of that.

by sidereal on Aug 20, 2010 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions  

This is a work in progress

I know it’s nowhere close to done, but the basic framework is there to be expanded on. Eventually it will incorporate the full soccer game state that I’m working on deriving, which will include everything you’ve mentioned as well as much more besides.

Adding in a patch on GS/G based on recent play is something I’ll investigate, but you’d have to regress it extremely quickly for it to make any sense, and then you’re getting into judgment calls.

by Graham MacAree on Aug 20, 2010 4:44 PM PDT up reply actions  

Seriously fascinating stuff

The fact that you’re even attempting to get game state out there is impressive and also seems like something you’d be pulling your hair out about.

by Brian Floyd on Aug 20, 2010 4:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

It is. I just didn't catch it

since there weren’t any red cards in this game.

by sidereal on Aug 20, 2010 4:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

Let me know if you could use any help

though I’m not promising it’d be good help.

I’ve done similar stuff for baseball and have been vaguely mulling over an instantaneous win probability (and player contribution) model for soccer for a while. But as always access to data is rough. I’m trying to figure out if I can get my employer to get access to the raw Stats SportVU data with some kind of handwaving justification just so I can crawl it.

by sidereal on Aug 20, 2010 4:57 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'll let you know how it goes

though I think the SportVU data is mostly a pipe dream. I doubt they release the raw data even to clients. They tend to just give out summary reports, not the x,y values.

But another option I’ve considered is to essentially duplicate what their software does, which is track players in match video. They have custom cameras that cover the whole field, but you could do the same thing with a broadcast angle if you’re willing to ignore (or interpolate) players not in frame and go through the manual work of making sure the software is picking up objects correctly.

Anyway, probably way out there, but I might take a crack at it when I get free time.

by sidereal on Aug 20, 2010 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

argh

it was a shit happens kind of match… they had chances and patches of excellence, we had chances and patches of excellence… and in the glaring brightness of hindsight you can call all kinds of decisions into question. Its not like we were overrun or completely punked, but its not as though we dominated and clearly deserved a victory. We were perhaps a little unfortunate…
In the end, that still doesn’t mean I wasn’t overwhelmingly aggravated by the loss, I don’t share the zen-like calmness over the loss Dave seems to have; I can’t say i expected a loss , I actually figured we could get a result and a win if a couple things went our way

...that's MISTER Keller to you!!!

by malcontentjake on Aug 20, 2010 10:39 AM PDT reply actions  

I'm probably so Zen about it

because I just had run the Home v Away GD for the past two Group Stages

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Aug 20, 2010 10:48 AM PDT up reply actions  

Am I the only one

who thought the PK call was reasonable?

The way I saw it was that Marshall had a chance to clear earlier, but jogged it back and gave the attacker a chance to make an attempt on the ball. Yes, that attempt was flailing and improbable, but it was legitimate and in the end he beat Marshall to the ball.

by bauckus on Aug 20, 2010 12:51 PM PDT reply actions  

Actually,

if you watch the replay, Marshall was in mid-kick when the attacker came around him, threw himself into Marshall, and hooked his leg across Marshall’s body and over Marshall’s already extended leg. Then he predicably allowed the momentum to carry him to the gound (since he’d basically leaped into Marshall). Effectively, Marshall’s only influence at that point was being a brick wall with an extended leg that this guy threw himself against. It was totally stupid. Possibly he could have cleared the ball earlier, but that fact had nothing to do with the idiotic PK.

So, yeah, I’d guess you’re the only one.

by Nevtelen on Aug 20, 2010 1:07 PM PDT up reply actions  

OK then

At least we all seem to agree that Marshall should have dealt with it earlier.

by bauckus on Aug 20, 2010 1:56 PM PDT up reply actions  

No, it was perfectly reasonable

Reaching around another player with a leg is perfectly legal as long as you get to the ball first. If it wasn’t, Alonso’s career would instantly be over. And if a player beats you to the ball and you kick their leg, it’s a foul.

I could have seen a ref deciding it didn’t rise to the level of a penalty and maybe letting it go. But calling it isn’t an outrage.

by sidereal on Aug 20, 2010 2:12 PM PDT up reply actions  

Getting the ball first is NOT the standard

A play can be dangerous regardless of whether a player “gets the ball first”

Hooking someone else while they are in their kicking motion is likely dangerous

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Aug 20, 2010 2:17 PM PDT up reply actions  

Sure, a play _can_ be dangerous even if you get the ball first

if you go in studs up, if your trailing leg rolls up the player’s ankle, etc, etc.

But we were talking specifically about this play. And while I don’t have any replay with me and so am going entirely off my own recollection, I don’t recall the Marathon player making any significant contact with Marshall before getting to the ball. He just went around him. Alonso does it 10 times a game. It gets done hundreds of times every Saturday. The fact that Marshall was winding up to kick it doesn’t make it dangerous. Players aren’t obligated to honor each others’ windups. In fact, they’re encouraged to get there first.

Or to put it another way, if it was Fredy at the other end of the pitch and he went around a Marathon defender to poke a ball in and got kicked in the leg and went down, I’m pretty sure 90% of the people who think this was a bad call would be screaming for the penalty.

by sidereal on Aug 20, 2010 2:53 PM PDT up reply actions  

That's how I saw it

And I agree that the ref could have let it go, but calling it was not an outrage.

by bauckus on Aug 20, 2010 3:23 PM PDT up reply actions  

Same here

Also, I try to imagine how the play would have looked in real time, and from the ref’s perspective, I can see how it looked like Marshall kicked the guy fairly hard. As far as CCL officiating goes, I don’t really have any complaints.

by ubelmann on Aug 20, 2010 4:45 PM PDT up reply actions  

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