PPM [and whatnot] standings

So I started this whole PPM-based standings spreadsheet back in mid-July, largely for my own elucidation and amusement.  At the time, our Sounders stood at 16 points, just 3 points back of 8th place in the overall table, but I couldn't help but notice that we were 13th in PPM at a paltry 1/match, and it seemed like this was far more important to consider than the absolute point total, with such an inequity of matches played.  
One of the editors of this site posted something about that time, which at the time struck me as absurdly Pollyanna-ish (fairly or not) and I lashed out a bit at the author, attempting to point out that we would need an absolutely seemingly absurd at-the-time hot streak to climb back into any real playoff contention.  I think my exact quote was "23 points by the end of July and 30 by the end of August to even think about playoffs!"  That's about the time I begin to furiously add columns of computations to my spreadsheet as a way of "forecasting" what certain results would do to help the Sounders on the tough climb back into contention.  Again, I did this largely for my own amusement, occasionally sharing some of my geeky findings in comments and such.

Lo and behold, the Sounders went on that torrid hot streak (we can thank the presence of a target forward and Ozzie back in the lineup, among other things, for that) and I found it pretty interesting to follow along with the Sounders progress up the charts.  In a final orgy of nerdiness, I finally stumbled upon a "trend" calculation I was content with, and the rest is history.  I decided to start sharing my geeky spreadsheet on a weekly basis to a public I wasn't entirely sure necessarily cared - but the bottom line remains, I do this mainly for my own amusement...

But I will say, just before I drop this week's table on y'all, that I have really gotten into this, and I have discovered myself in what is best described as a somewhat helpless position, more often than not.  The fact is, we are in a desperately tight race for the playoffs.  The likelihood of catching FCD or NYRB is essentially too low to be worth considering (and if we caught NYRB it wouldn't matter anyway) and I find myself continuously assessing our chances of passing Colorado or San Jose to move into 6th (our best-case scenario for playoffs) whilst nervously glancing down at Chicago, Toronto, and even the likes of K.C. or N.E. wondering if they can make a run at us.  I'm gonna tell you that I Really sweated out the two Chicago matches this past week, and was as relieved to see Houston held them off as I was for any "out of town" result in my 50+ matches of following the MLS Sounders.

I have issues with the MLS format, and I certainly would rather the Sounders not had such a miserable first half to their season, but I will also be the first to admit that the last couple of months of the 2010 season may be some of the most exciting times I have experienced in my life as a sports fan...

Rankings: I decided to just go purely off my "trend 30" number this week when setting the actual tiers... I am still not claiming its the be-all/end-all but i will admit to feeling pretty happy with it ;-)  I'm going with purely PPM when ranking within the tiers, however...

tier 1: Race for the Supporters Shield: #1 Galaxy, #2a Columbus, #2b RSL, #4 Dallas

...yep, Dallas.  They have a very real chance at making the top 3 in the overall all Western Conference, which I am actually rooting for, as a demonstration of the insipidness of the MLS not going to single-table this year. L.A. continues what I would not necessarily call a plummet (although the numbers indicate that) but really more of a "reset to realism."  Pretty hard to separate RSL and Columbus at this point.  Dallas and Columbus square off this Saturday...

tier 2: playoff locks: #5 NYRB

the "leftover" tier for teams sure to make the playoffs but not really in the Supporters shield race is down to NYRB this week.  They crushed TFC to climb here from tier 3 last week.

tier 3: the fight for playoffs: #6 San Jose, #7 Colorado, #8 Sounders, #9 Chicago

and here it is... everyone else in this group oughta thank Houston for coming to life and beating Chicago over the weekend, or this would look a little different.  Sounders fans need to be genuinely nervous about all these games in hand San Jose and Chicago posses... can it be over-stated how big the Sounders-Fire match this Saturday is?  A Sounders win puts us at 1.45 PPM and Chicago at 1.26, a Chicago win puts it at 1.32 and 1.42; its a true "6-Pointer" for the playoffs.  San Jose looked to be staggering a couple weeks ago, but 2 straight wins have them controlling their own destiny.  BTW, San Jose @ NYRB and Colorado @ Houston this week....

tier 4: outside looking in (soon to be renamed "running out of time") #10 Toronto, #11 K.C.W., #12 Houston, #13 N.E. Revs

you may right ask why i've relegated TFC to tier 4, and I'll re-iterate that I base my tiers on obvious gaps that develop in the table, and since I have decided to use the "trend 30" number to establish my tiers this week, there is a "obvious gap" in "trend 30" from Chicago to Toronto.  Meanwhile, K.C. continues to flirt with making some kind of run, having won 3 of their last 6 with just one loss in the mix, they put N.E. back in their place with a thumping over the weekend. Houston kept their season alive, and I wouldn't mid seeing them defeat Colorado and San Jose in their next two matches (although such a mini-run would put them back into contention at 1.26 PPM).

tier 5: fuhgetaboudit: #14 Chivas de L.A, #15, Philly, #16 D.C.

...and welcome to the club, Chivas!  Yes, just two weeks ago you were trending up and looking interesting - I even considered our draw against you "forgivable" because of it, but now your are below the "Red Bull" line (i.e. < 1 PPM) and you are resigned to playing out the string for "moral victories.  It isn't all bad, because for the second straight week we will have a "tier 5" derby when you take on D.C. to climb back to "tier 4".  Just so you know, Philly failed in their quest to do so on Sunday.  Oh, yeah, Philly, another side which looked to be making something of it a couple weeks back...

NEW THIS WEEK!  "the Playoff line" = more dorkiness

Currently, 8th place in "trend 30" is Chicago at 42 points even, just nipping Colorado by .5 and 2.45 behind Seattle in 7th.  Using this as the "cutoff" for playoffs, what are teams gonna have to do to accomplish the feat of scoring 42 points this season?  The almighty Spreadsheet will tell us!

Again, this is based on what a team needs to do to get to 42 points, so in the case of L.A., they already have 43, so their numbers are nonsense, and teams like Dallas, Columbus, and RSL are all basically locks as well, so its not really worth focusing too much on them.  Where you really want to focus your eyeballs is on San Jose through Toronto, 6-10 in the Overall table.  You've probably already figured it out, but that third column is change from current PPM, and its either encouraging or discouraging to see that Seattle only needs to improve slightly to make it to the playoffs (that's encouraging) but we're really only on track for 8th (that's discouraging).  I re-iterate, this is all tied to the 8th-best "trend 30" number, and is all subject to week to week changes.