A look at the playoff chase (and PPM standings)

Before I get to the real objective of this post, lets get to the usual PPM-andwhatnot-standings:

tiers are a bit different this week, as there are basically three, with D.C. United alone in a "special" 4th tier.  Remember, the objective of these tiers is to group teams into obvious clusters, since linear rankings rarely reflect the true distribution of quality:

Tier 1: playoff locks: 1) Dallas, 2) RSL, 3) Crew, 4) Galaxy, 5) NYRB

Yeah, Dallas, believe it.  They are on a 12-match unbeaten streak (26 points in that span) and broke an MLS record for unbeaten road-match streak.   RSL have lost once in 17 matches and are over 2 PPM in that stretch.  In a "parity" league like this one, I consider it a significant accomplishment if any team can average 2+ PPM for a 10-match stretch.  Meanwhile, L.A. have 7 points in 7 League matches.

tier 2: the playoff race

sub tier 2a: 6) Sounders, 7) Rapids, 8). S.J.

sub tier 2b: 9) K.C., 10) Toronto, 11) Fire

A lot more on this group later.

tier 3: running out of time: 12) Chivas, 13) Houston, 14) Philly, 15) N.E.

Its looking less and less likely any of these teams can make a push.  2 weeks ago the Revs were on the verge of playoff contention, yet now they are just losers of three straight with the 2nd-worst GD in the league.  

tier 4: 16) D.C. United

So awful they deserve their own tier.  

Now let's focus on the Sounders' group, the cluster of 6 teams ranked 6-11 who will fight for the last 3 playoff spots.  And let's welcome K.C into the chase, fresh off an upset of the Galaxy and facing 3 very winnable matches (@ Philly, home to Houston, @ Chivas) in their immediate future.  

The $64K question is "do the Sounders control their own destiny" and the answer is very nearly so.  Saturday's dramatic win was obviously huge, giving us a clear gap back to Chicago we can feel somewhat safe with, even given all their games in hand.  It was a mixed bag otherwise, with Colorado winning and San Jose losing, and a Toronto draw a palatable result for us as well.  I would rather K.C. not have joined the party, as even though we have a decent gap back to them I do not consider this to be a "the more the merrier" type of group.  

the "playoff line" (if you recall from last week) is set at 44 points (rounded up from 43.667) which is up 2 from 42.  I have isolated spots 6-11 on PPM for the following table, outlining what these teams need to do to get to the 44-point mark for playoffs:

Given our current form, 12 points from 8 matches seems perfectly doable.  Toronto, Chicago, and particularly K.C. all have some ground to make up, and we can certainly feel somewhat secure in our current position, as well as be optimistic at our chances of getting to 6th past Colorado and San Jose.

But do we well and truly "control our own destiny"?  Which is to say, how concerned do we need to be with out-of-town results.  It's certainly clear that we can be less concerned that we would've been at the beginning of the month, when we were still behind many of these teams on PPM.  It's vitally important to note, however, that we are essentially tied with San Jose, and basically .5 points back in the standings from Colorado (based on 22-game extrapolation) but what keeps me up at night is those pesky games in hand.

All our direct rivals have matches in hand on us.  So to asses whether or not we truly "control our own destiny" it may help to look at the "worst case scenario", in other words, what if all these teams won those matches in hand?  Now, this is a bit of a theoretical construct, as I am not really looking at the schedule and taking into consideration who these teams are playing - such as against each other.  It's really a thought experiment, imagining if these teams made up those matches - not playing each other in any of them - and each team won all of those matches in hand.  Here is what the table would look like (each team having played 22 matches):

(team, points) 

6) San Jose 35

7) Colorado 34

8) Chicago 33

9) Sounders 32

10) Toronto 30

11) Wizards 29

It may be a stretch to have Chicago win all those games in hand, but its definitely not impossible, and consider that the Sounders ripped off 4 straight when a lot of us didn't expect it.  San Jose and Colorado are both teams certainly capable of winning a lot of matches down the stretch, and San Jose, with those two matches in hand, worries me particularly.

The moral of the story is that we very nearly control our own destiny, but I'm not quite ready to completely say so just yet.  The good new is we are on a tear, of course.  We entered July as one of the worst teams in the league, and started that month looking like a JV team against the varsity Galaxy on the 4th of July.  Since then we are 5-2-0; 17 points in just 7 matches.  In fact, after the disappointing July 11th draw against Dallas, we stood at a paltry 1.0 PPM, 16 points in 16 matches, and we have managed to double that total in just 6 since.  Its not a stretch to say we are the hottest team in the League, but with all that comes a distinct warning:  any of these teams we are in the chase to the playoffs with could suddenly get hot and go on a tear themselves.  

It seems trite to even say it, but the Sounders need to keep winning, and keep getting those type of results which eluded us earlier in the year.  It is absolutely no time to get comfortable, in fact, I would say that stunning victories like Saturday only increase the expectations we have for this team.  Ask yourself, given what has happened over the last 8 weeks, would YOU be happy with us stumbling into the playoffs and bowing out in the first round?  What if the unthinkable happens and we miss the playoffs?  I'm not going to be of the mind that "well, at least we made a run and it was exciting."  Not any more...