Updated Sounders Playoff Odds (and Strength of Schedule)

I won't go into any great detail on the numbers in this post. Check here for an explanation of how I setup the simulation that produces these odds. The short version is that I like it better than Sports Club Stats (who oddly haven't updated their MLS odds in almost a week anyway)

Here's the updated playoff odds table:

I should also point out that Seattle's playoff odds were actually in the mid 80s just after the upset of Columbus, but the wins by Toronto and Kansas City put a damper on that. Still, it looks like Kansas City is the real threat to the Sounders for the last playoff position as everyone else has less than a 10% chance of making it.

Part of the reason for that is the strength of schedule. I'm also now doing a strength of schedule simulation. Essentially, I create a 'league average' team and then run it through each team's schedule with the same simulation engine and see how it does. The schedules that yield the most points per game are the easiest schedules. Here are the results for the whole league:

If you've seen my previous results, you'll know that for weeks Sounders had one of the hardest upcoming schedules in the league. Getting that game at Columbus out of the way changed that dramatically, as the sim rated a game at Columbus as one of the toughest in the league. An average team would now get nearly 7 points out of Seattle's remaining schedule, which should comfortably put them in the playoffs.

In constrast, the Rapids (who are the only team Seattle has a reasonable shot of passing) and most of the playoff chasers have tougher schedules. The Rapids have the third toughest schedule (including two games against RSL) and the Fire — who for a couple of weeks were the most likely team to pass the Sounders — have stumbled and now face the prospect of trying to make up a lot of ground with the fifth hardest schedule in the league. Toronto and the Wizards have basically equivalent schedules with the Sounders right around 1.4 PPG.

Of course, as the season winds down and teams either way in or way out start resting starters, a lot of what we know about strength of schedule goes out the window.