MLS will have David Bingham draft lottery today at 3pm. 13 teams are taking part. Best odds: NE-23.6%, TFC-17.9, Chicago-15.3, Seattle-10.8
Via Ives. I'm a little surprised Seattle didn't pull out. Bingham is projected to be a great keeper. . up there with MacMath. But the Sounders already have 4 in camp. If they win it they'll lose spots in the next lottery and they'll have to figure out what to do with 5 keepers — 3 of them likely too raw to start in the next couple of years.
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If they somehow got him they would use him as added depth
As for lottery spots, all I read was the winner of the Bingham lottery would not be able to participate in any other “special lotteries” for the rest of 2011. Depth for training in Arizona seems to me to be the best argument. Boss is not 100% healthy so why not take a chance on a GA keeper?
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After you win, you move to the back of the lottery line
At least that’s my understanding
Nos Audietis
I see now on Ives' blog...
…that San Jose isn’t at the bottom of the order, they just don’t participate in the lottery for the rest of the season. And I’m guessing, based on the odds listed at top, the order is based on how teams finished last year. In that case, there would be no reason for Seattle to wait around for a better player who they probably wouldn’t get anyway. As it is, they participated and still didn’t move up in the draft.
For a guy on a GA contract, I think you’d have to be pretty down on his talent to not give yourself a chance.
Another opaque MLS process
Now that you mention it, I recall reading that the order was based on place somehow. On the other hand, I don’t think Seattle can get the 4th best chance out of 13 teams based on last season’s finishing place. So there must be some factor tinkering with the odds.
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Some teams didn't participate
Mostly those in front of Sounders. That’s how they moved up.
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by Jeremiah Oshan on Jan 26, 2011 1:34 PM PST up reply actions
My math
I couldn’t figure how 9 teams would have worse chances than the Sounders, but I forgot that VAN and POR were put at the bottom of the list.
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Yeah
Not sure how that was determined, but PDX and VAN were automatically at bottom
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by Jeremiah Oshan on Jan 26, 2011 3:02 PM PST up reply actions
Pretty sure
They aren’t going to enter a special lottery for “depth for training in Arizona”. You serious with that?
I guess not, Tank
They have plenty of time to potentially let him train with and try out for a roster spot. From what little I have read it sounded like Bingham had the potential to be better than Ford or Meredith. But at this point it totally is a guessing game as to who will be your third keeper…
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Looks like Bingham is going to San Jose anyway, but I think this was a good move on the Sounders' part
First, by far the most likely thing to happen (which did happen) is for someone other than the Sounders to get Bingham.
Second, their other keepers were relatively low picks in the draft and losing them would not be an especialy big deal. Running up to the draft, much of the talk around here was surrounding the idea that first-round keepers couldn’t make an immediate impact. It stands to reason that 2nd-round or lower keepers would be just as unlikely to make an impact soon, with a good chance that they might never pan out.
Third, as Coug1990 suggests, Bingham could be traded for something else, just like we traded Seitz for something else, getting something rather than nothing out of whatever that draft was called.
Fourth, while the Sounders might move down in the lottery ranks by winning, in the long run, it should be better to win the draft early and often. If you wait until you have a good chance in the draft, for starters you still have a very good chance of not winning the draft (judging by NE’s less-than-robust 23.6%), and then when you do win the draft, you go back to the bottom, below the teams that got lucky and won the draft while you were sitting on the sideline. For instance, San Jose was behind the Sounders in the order (since they had a worse chance of winning), but now that they’ve won, they have a player in hand, and they will be in front of the Sounders after the Sounders win the lottery, which we have no guarantee of happening any time in the near future.
If the draft order is reset at the end of every season based on the season standings, then I’d suspect that a team should always enter the lottery for anyone remotely talented, since the lottery doesn’t happen that many times during the season and even if you had a 25% chance of winning each time, you would have a 30% chance of losing out on 4 consecutive drafts.
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