Coming Soon: Sounder At Heart Takes A Long Look At Offseason
by Jeremiah Oshan on Nov 9, 2011 11:25 AM PST
in Sounders: Analysis
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PrintAs many successes as Year 3 had for the Seattle Sounders, just about no one involved in the team was satisfied. More to the point, they know that a similar result next season would be considered a downright disappointment. While we shouldn't expect massive off-season changes, it would be naive to think that this team will come back looking exactly the same.
Over the next few weeks, Sounder at Heart's writers will be taking a look at various aspects of the Sounders' offseason. We will examine where we believe the team will go, where it should go and how they can accomplish those things.
Among the specific topics we will address:
- How the Sounders go about finding Kasey Keller's replacement and how that player deals with the subsequent pressures of following a legend
- What the Sounders must do to make a strong defense into an elite one, while also getting more offensive production from their fullbacks
- How they go about sorting out a midfield that is starting to look very crowded
- Whether or not this team needs another Designated Player and how Mauro Rosales' signing would affect that
In addition to all of that, you can obviously expect plenty more in-depth features and analysis. If there's any subjects you're dying to see us cover, by all means let us know.
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Balancing Act
The biggest questions for me for the coming season in some respects will revolve around any changes to the Salary Cap and how the Sounders specifically manage their roster relative to the cap.
Identifying areas where the Sounders can improve is relatively easy. Figuring out the complex balancing act of how to accomplish this under the salary cap is not.
One of the more intriguing aspects of the Expansion Draft that is often overlooked is the value to cost ratio of the players being protected. The costs of players like Fucito, Neagle and Carrasco relative to their skills, make them smart investments toward the overall roster and may enable the team to be cap flexible.
Exploring issues regarding the cap structure and building a roster would make for a good offseason discussion.
..?
“value to cost ratio of the players being protected”
How does the cost of a player factor into the expansion draft?
Unless you mean leaving a higher cost player unprotected to deter Montreal from taking him… Which I suppose that makes sense.
by thesafetylemur on Nov 9, 2011 12:45 PM PST up reply actions
I think the cost of a player works both ways as the abbott explained
ie lower priced players with youth and “upside” could be worth protecting:Fucito, Neagle, etc. as they allow more flexibility when fitting under the salary cap. Whilst leaving a Jaqua ($211k) or Evans ($140) exposed with a higher contract.
This is more a question of the team’s philosophy about depth moving forward as much as the draft. I think the draft is more about analyzing what position you can afford to lose depth in and what areas you cannot. At least that is what I learned from the Abbott.
Nos audietis in somniis, Nos audietis in altum: You will hear us!
Here and I thought with the Church of Fucito and beer making and all....
oh nevermind. I get confused by a lot of things.
Nos audietis in somniis, Nos audietis in altum: You will hear us!
Think of it this way
The most the Sounders will lose in the Expansion draft is a single player. If the player lost is skilled and inexpensive, this is a double loss within the context of the tight MLS salary cap. The Sounders do not have a problem affording their payroll. They have a problem creating a payroll where 28-30 quality players fit under the cap structure. (This should get a touch easier down the road when they begin to add Home Grown players to the mix. But for this coming season, it will be their biggest challenge.)
Players like Fucito, Carrasco, Ochoa and Neagle are all bargains. Their combined salary against the cap for 2011 was $158.6 K. Strong skills and low cost. They occupy a spot on the roster without eating a large chunk of the salary cap. Evans made $121K, roughly three times the current league minimum of 42K for a first 18-20 player spot. If you lose Evans but can retain 3 skilled players making the league minimum, your team’s position relative to the salary cap is strengthened.
If you retain both Evans and Friberg but lose one of the bargains, the team’s overall roster strength is liable to suffer. I like Evans and Friberg. But losing either of their salaries, the team is likely to be able to find a comparable replacement. The same cannot be said for losing a skilled player making the league minimum.
By the same token, losing a player like Alonso who is making $140 K would also be tough to replace. His relative cost to skills would be next to impossible to replace at the same cost.
Ultimately, this isn’t about leaving an expensive player unprotected because you don’t think he will be chosen. This is about leaving an expensive player exposed because he can be replaced at close to his current cost.
It’s easy to think about the Expansion draft in terms of who are the Starting 11. But if the Sounders think this way, they will not have the flexibility to make the subtle offseason moves they will need to make in order to build on this year’s continued growth and success.
by Abbott Smith on Nov 9, 2011 1:25 PM PST up reply actions 3 recs
I don't understand this attitude...
More to the point, they know that a similar result next season would be considered a downright disappointment.
I can understand wanting to improve, but the Sounders have done amazing things this year. 3 trophies and a shot at a 4th. 2nd place in the regular season. Won a play off game. Even if we just did those things next year, it’s still wonderful and a success. Hell, just win one trophy next year and to me it would be a success.
Sure, I understand the drive to be #1 in all things. Aim high! But the things accomplished this year are amazing and shouldn’t be looked down on by any fan.
I think not advancing in the MLS Cup was a disappointment...
But if we were in 5th or 7th place and had the same result to the 3rd place team, would it have felt any less disappointing. Of course, the MLS cup structure made us play the 3rd place team as a “reward” for getting the second best record overall.
I thought the Sounders had a great year in spite of all of the injuries, turmoil (remember when Nkufo left?) and results in the MLS Cup.
But if the Sounders can have a healthier season expecting more next year would not be aiming too high.
Nos audietis in somniis, Nos audietis in altum: You will hear us!
I'm not picking on you
but I’m personally sick and tired of all this nonsense about us getting screwed by playing RSL in the playoffs.
You know who really got screwed by that seeding? RSL did. They were the third best team in MLS and ended up in the bottom of the bracket facing a team that was better than them in the standings (and playing the return leg on the road). Some reward indeed.
Besides, the way we showed up for game one, I imagine we would have lost to anyone in that opening leg. We would have lost at New England.
It just happened to be that the top three teams were all in the Western Conference, but that happens in all sports. There have been years where the top three teams were all in the American League, or the NFC, or the NBA Western Conference. It happens. If you want to win Championships you have to beat the best teams. There were four teams in the Western bracket. Number one played the worst team. That’s the reward for finishing first. Two played three. That’s what happens. It’s what happens in all sports. We knew that going in.
Bitching about this is just sour grapes and poor sportsmanship.
Had they created a bracket based solely on standings, the Sounders likely would have had to get through Houston, RSL, & LA anyway. Just in a different order.
by Jack Brando on Nov 9, 2011 5:12 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Fair enough
I still am disappointed with how we played on our away leg. The Sounders performance in Utah was one of our top three worst performances this year. We didn’t play like a “second” seeded team. I agree. Thank goodness it was a home and away aggregate because I think the only way it could have been worse was if we had lost a 3-0 at home and were eliminated.
Nos audietis in somniis, Nos audietis in altum: You will hear us!
We've been saying this all along, but it should be repeated
this season was a succes, but it can still be disappointing. If next year ends at the same time, I guarantee there will be some very unhappy people making decisions.
Editor/writer at Sounder at Heart, MLS editor SB Nation. Follow me on Twitter. You'll Never Yacht Alone.
by Jeremiah Oshan on Nov 9, 2011 1:41 PM PST up reply actions
I would like anaylsis on...
the odds of us keeping Fredy. While his exit interview is standard athelete speak (love it here, would look at any opportunity, but love it here), I feel pessimistic about his return. Rumours of the Ajax bid from last summar haunt my thoughts on this topic and his strong season does not ease my anxiety. So, do you think he is likely to go? If so, what does that mean for this team in 2012?
I really think he's staying...
A big offer from a big club can obviously change that, but until a reputable source emerges claiming such an offer exists, I am not worried.
Editor/writer at Sounder at Heart, MLS editor SB Nation. Follow me on Twitter. You'll Never Yacht Alone.
by Jeremiah Oshan on Nov 9, 2011 1:42 PM PST up reply actions
I think before the DP rule, this would have been a bigger concern
The DP rule ought to allow us to keep Fredy until he has a monster season and then we can sell high, if at all. If he stays healthy all next season, I think he’ll be a Golden Boot contender.
One more season
I think that the Sounders will be able to retain their young superstars for one more season. Montero, Alonso, Flaco and Zak are probably one more season away from serious European consideration. And even then next year’s form will have a profound impact on their options. If the Sounders have another stellar season and compete well on multiple fronts, I expect the team will start to see serious transfer offers.
Thanks for the commitment to the same high-quality writing and analysis in the off-season that we've appreciated during the season
I’d like to see some thoughts and analysis on the Sounders’ chances in the Champions League when those games get a bit closer, particularly on how new players might affect the team and pre-season fitness issues, etc. You’re probably planning to look closely at all those things already, but consider this another interested person!
Thanks to all SaH writers for your dedication to the team and the blog.
I wonder if the Sounders will do a preseason tournament
like the one they did in Spain a couple years ago, to get ready for the CCL. It would seem like playing other foreign competition to prepare would be good.
They are finalizing pre-season plans now
but it seems likely to do Arizona, Florida and maybe a game or two against Mexican team.
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
Jer and I will have more from our conversation with Adrian over the next several days
It was very long
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
Please keep us up to date on the pitch situation.
The Xbox Pitch and Century Link Field is trashed.
I’m curious about what they are doing.
And how the Huskies playing there will influence the decisions they make.
I’m curious about what the options are and what type of bids the various players are making. Fieldturf? Polytan? What’s it going to be?
AH talked about this today with Josh over at the Seattle Times
AH said that the team expects a new turf surface and CLink for next season.
Any word on the Cascadia Summit?
Obviously I’m biased, but it would be nice to have it at Starfire again. Centrally located, fewer border crossings, etc. etc.
Gotta spread it around
this isn’t the USOC.
Kidding! …mostly.
But I have no idea where it would be held here in Portland. Possibly Jeld-Wen itself, really. Starfire was fun last year, but I wouldn’t be surprised if increased demand from the Portland crowd (if not Seattle, I’m not sure about that) made it too small. It will definitely be a hotter ticket around here next year.
In all honesty, I’d rather go up to Vancouver than do Seattle again. But I’ll be at Starfire cheerfully if that’s what shakes out.
volatilelyle.com
by almost awesome on Nov 9, 2011 7:42 PM PST up reply actions
I'd love to see some retrospectives in the coming weeks
We had a hell of a season these past few months, and I’m eager to be reminded of some of it. I remember the Cascadia thrashing against Portland earlier in the year, slamming Columbus, winning the Open Cup, but I’m sure there’s a few awesome moments that have been lost to memory. Something like a top 10 best moments of the season- and maybe 5 worst moments- would make for a cool article.
Of course the Sounders should want a 3rd DP
If you can have any player that fills a need (or multiple needs) that has value that surpasses the cap by a significant degree due to his skill he contributes than it is obviously a bargain. It’s not so much if the Sounders need a third DP, but whether a third DP can fill the needs of the Sounders moreso than an under DP threshold player. I would like to see the Sounders use all 3 DP spots because that maximizes the value we have on the field. If we are under the cap without using the DP rule to maximum effect (or attempting to do so) it seems we either are paying players under value or not maximizing the potential value of our roster under the cap limits.
I’m not saying we’re a bad team without 3 DPs or that a 3rd DP is a magic bullet, but it seems like we aren’t striving to be the best team possible if we do not pursue 3 DPs. Whether that is finding a new player or making a current player the 3rd DP we should maximize our roster value by rules that allow us to go beyond the nominal limits of the league. So no, we don’t a 3rd DP to win, but if winning is our objective not pursing a 3rd DP seems antithetical when we can afford a 3rd DP. It’s just a matter of making sure that 3rd DP fills the roles we need to a high degree.
-Ben R.
3rd DP though has a high cap hit
so one DP and one minimum salary player or two mid to higher salary players?
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
Umm....
You need the value maximized much like the NYRB? Maybe they will even give you guys Marquez to fill that void?
Personally, I am more of the opinion that strong Homegrown programs are what is going to really shape a team in the end. DP’s are great but they need a strong foundation to work with or it’s one man against eleven.
by Brennen Cissna on Nov 10, 2011 8:49 AM PST up reply actions
Next year and then the future
I agree that the DP is not a saviour. And certainly with only 3 possible per team, this league is not geared toward the DP position being the foundation of a roster. The Home Grown academies are a significant component to the long term answer. But the Sounders are not likely to add a HG player to their roster anytime soon and certainly not this year.
The third DP is a tool that the Sounders can use to either reward a player like Rosales or augment the existing lineup with another key component to making a run at multiple titles. As Dave mentions, it isn’t their only option. But it is a possible option as the Front Office works to tweak the current lineup and cross that last difficult piece of ground on the way to the team’s overall goals of winning the SS, the CCCL, a 4th US Open Cup and the MLS Cup.
The reality of this off season is that the Sounders have a solid core to their roster. After replacing the GK, the FO will be looking to bring in a few key elements to add depth, and to upgrade the overall team. I expect that the team won’t just add a couple of players into the existing nooks and crannies of their roster. I expect that the team will make a couple of difficult choices that will cause some overall personnel changes. This will probably start with the Expansion Draft. I won’t be surprised if they look to renogiate contracts with a couple of their veteran bench players in order to free up more cap space. This could lead to existing players leaving the team through the Re Entry or Waiver process. I also won’t be surprised if they don’t bring in a few additional experienced players looking to upgrade the competition at some positions like Fullback or Forward. This will have a domino effect and may lead to some of this year’s regular contributors not even making next year’s roster. There have also been strong hints that the Sounders will consider a trade if it gives them the right player or flexibility in return. As strong as the core of this team is, I still won’t be surprised if as many as 4-6 players from this year’s roster are not on the team next season depending on how the FO approaches their options and how the various drafts work out.
by Abbott Smith on Nov 10, 2011 10:08 AM PST up reply actions
I think the Montero path is the proper way to use the DP
Ideally, I’d love to see the Sounders become the Ajax of MLS. We’d get a reputation for finding and developing talent and getting them into the big leagues. We’d find good, exciting players at the start of their careers (or even as youth players) and have them play their pre-peak years here. Then when they’ve reached their peak, we transfer them on for big money and continue the cycle. This is the path that Montero is on and I’d like to see a lot of players follow in his footsteps.
by CarlosT on Nov 10, 2011 10:26 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
I'd rather be better than Ajax
while they develop talent, they have fewer trophies in the past three years than the Sounders do.
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
past three years seems a very small window to look at and judge by
Editor/writer at Sounder at Heart, MLS editor SB Nation. Follow me on Twitter. You'll Never Yacht Alone.
by Jeremiah Oshan on Nov 10, 2011 11:11 AM PST up reply actions
Also less trophies than USL/MLS Sounders in past decade
Ajax can’t afford to keep its talent and is no longer a dominant club in Europe. I want to dominate our region. I’d target Galaxy, Chivas (the real one), America.
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
We're not competing against Barça, Real, or Man U
If Ajax were producing the players they do in MLS, they would be the dominant club in the region. Like Dizzo said, it’s really not an either/or, and the Ajax model would be richly rewarded under the current rules.
But the rules encourage keeping talent that is developed
rather than selling them on
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
What's the penalty for selling a player?
There’s nothing in the rules that require an MLS club to hang on to their developed talent forever. You’re not as well rewarded as in the free enterprise leagues, but you do get some of the money and allocation dollars. Being known for moving a player up at the right time will be an important part of an MLS club’s reputation. It will be a long time, if ever, before MLS becomes a destination league for talent at its peak. So it’s either a going to be a place for careers at their beginnings or at their ends. If it’s option two, then all that really matters is that there’s someone who can sign the big checks. Option one, however, requires more investment by the club. No player on the rise wants to take his career into a black hole. They want to learn, grow, and most importantly, be seen to learn and grow and therefore have the opportunity to move up to the big teams.
So there’s a way to take advantage of the current rules in MLS to become attractive to players on the rise, and getting a reputation for helping players raise their profile and moving them up is a huge part of that. The ideal plan for MLS right now is for clubs to develop talent and hold on to it to just as they reach their peak, then move them on for big dollars. To do otherwise would be self-defeating. It would make the league less attractive to young talent, and would also deny clubs a good revenue source, and those two would drive each other in a vicious circle.
The penalty for selling on is that you don't get the full fee
Depending on how the player was acquired by the team.
A team that keeps said talent raises the overall quality of the team and the league.
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
There's still a cost benefit analysis to be done
Like I said, you’re not as well rewarded as in the free enterprise leagues, and you might not get the full fee, but you get some of it. And if you’re a league where people are going to want to leave anyway, then it’s important to have a pipeline of talent to replace them.
A team with just three DPs is going to have to choose who to keep and who to let go, because they’ll never be able to pay everybody what they can get elsewhere. So choices will have to be made and people will move on. If you get a reputation as a club or league that makes taking that next step in a career difficult, you’ll be a much less attractive place for young talent to come and play. Individual players have no reason to care about MLS in the abstract, especially if they’re not American. There are hundreds of leagues to choose from, and in the end they have to do what’s best for their careers. The trick for MLS in the short run is to become a place that will boost a player’s profile and help them advance in their careers. Making it hard for teams to sell players on at the right time will greatly detract from that effort.
If its a choice between A and B
A) Having a global reputation of producing exciting young talent
B) Winning trophies with aging Euros
Then I would choose to be the Ajax of MLS. However, the real question is if the Sounders can develop exciting young talent and win trophies. I think the answer is yes.
MLS rules have been structured to reward teams that develop talent rather than importing it in. Examples include the home-grown player rules, additional roster slots for young players and the awarding of allocation dollars above the cap for players transferred abroad.
The SAH Links Guy
I agree
I personally like the Sounders strategy for finding young, up and coming DP’s. I believe that their best chance for long term success as the MLS continues to grow and evolve is to become the type of conduit that you are describing.
by Abbott Smith on Nov 10, 2011 12:27 PM PST up reply actions
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