Adam Johansson's Signing: Proof Sounders Are Done Or Just Getting Started?
Adam Johansson was officially introduced to the Seattle media on Friday. Joining him on the call was Seattle Sounders Technical Director Chris Henderson. Depending on how you chose to interpret Henderson's comments and some recent developments, the Sounders are either very close to a finished product or merely just starting to round into shape.
So which is it? That's what I'm going to try to ascertain in this space.
Finished product
Evidence: With the addition of Johansson, the Sounders have a player clearly capable of starting at every position. If the season were to begin tomorrow, the Sounders' starting XI would probably look something very similar to this:
GK: Michael Gspurning; LB: Leo Gonzalez; CBs: Jhon Kennedy Hurtado and Jeff Parke; RB: Johansson; LM: Alvaro Fernandez; CM: Brad Evans; CDM: Osvaldo Alonso; RM: Mauro Rosales; Forwards: Fredy Montero and Sammy Ochoa.
You'd also have guys like Lamar Neagle, Servando Carrasco, Mike Fucito, Zach Scott and Patrick Ianni capable of playing significant minutes off the bench. It looks like we can probably throw Danish import Christian Sivebaek and DC United castoff Marc Burch into the mix as well. That's all assuming zero contribution from Steve Zakuani or O'Brian White.
Personally, I think that's a lineup that has a very good chance of contending for a Supporters' Shield and a MLS Cup. I think you can also make the argument that, at least on paper, it's probably an improvement over the team that started the season last year, as well as the one that was eliminated by Real Salt Lake in the playoffs.
I'm not going to say that this team can't be improved upon. There is surely a better target forward to be found than Ochoa. Our left back situation is obviously no better than it was last year, and is maybe even a little worse. As much as I like Evans, I won't sit here and say that a true playmaking central midfielder wouldn't be a nice addition. If you look beyond those spots, though, we can see a lot to like.
- Johansson, I think, will greatly improve this team's ability to maintain possession and start the attack from the back.
- Rosales, let's remember, was not a starter when the season opened a year ago and was hurt during the playoffs. His presence will be a huge upgrade.
- As Henderson has been repeated many times, Gspurning is not Kasey Keller, but there's every reason to expect that he'll be a very solid MLS goalkeeper.
- Hurtado and Parke, who last year were still getting used to each other, have now played together extensively and have formed a solid center back pairing. Hurtado is also another year removed from his knee surgery.
- Fernandez, assuming he's here, appears to be adjusting nicely and enjoyed his best scoring output of his career last year.
- Ochoa should be now be fully fit and will have the benefit of an entire training camp.
- Even Montero is a better player than he was at the start of last year.
Add it all up and you have a team that most MLS front offices would be overjoyed with having. But we like to at least think that the Sounders are not like most MLS front offices, which brings us to Part 2.
Just taking shape
Evidence: Even if we consider the rumored signing of Sivebaek to be part of the "finished product" part of the discussion, there have been plenty of other signs that suggest this might not be the exact team that takes the field when the Sounders play Santos Laguna on March 8. A major part of that could be what happens with Fernandez.
I'll assume you saw the rumor that Fernandez's agent welcomed interest from Italy's Palermo (if not, go give it a quick read and come back). Let's assume Palermo is actually interested and is willing to pay a fair price to obtain Fernandez's services. That could kickstart a rather significant chain of events that would likely lead to some serious changes to the Sounders' core.
First off, it would open a rather significant piece of financial flexibility. If the Sounders got as little as $1 million to transfer Fernandez to Italy, that would net them the maximum $667,000 in allocation funds. Just as importantly, it would open a Designated Player spot and the $335,000 in cap space it occupies. Combined with the allocation money they should already have based on previous preseason moves, it would have a three-part effect.
1. They would have room to sign a new DP ($335,000)
2. They could buy down Rosales' contract below the DP threshold ($100,000, estimated)
3. They could afford another DP ($335,000)
Even if we assume the Sounders have already spent the existing allocation money they have and would only have the $667,000 netted from this theoretical Fernandez transfer, that would still give them $232,000 in allocation after adding a DP and paying down Rosales. That should be enough to buy down the cap hit of a third DP to the minimum $150,000. Obviously, there's quite a bit of guesswork involved whenever you attempt to break down salary cap space in MLS, but it sure seems like the Sounders would have a lot of maneuverability.
My expectation would be for the Sounders to use Neagle as a stopgap at left mid at least until Zakuani is closer to full fitness. That would allow the Sounders to focus on two key areas: striker and center mid.
I'm hardly an expert when it comes to scouting international soccer talent, but there are plenty of intriguing names out there who could fit in nicely. Panama's Blas Perez has recently been linked with a move to MLS. He scored 21 goals in 24 Mexican Primera games during 2010-11. Prince Tagoe, a player the Sounders were heavily linked to last year, has reportedly fallen out of favor with Turkey's Bursaspor and may even be unemployed. I don't have any similarly intriguing names of central midfielders to throw out there, but I have no doubt the Sounders are already scouring the world for one.
Conclusion
If forced to decide between these two options, I'd lean toward thinking the Sounders are much closer to a finished product and that this team will only undergo small cosmetic changes before now and the start of the season. I'd love for them to trade up in the draft in order to grab someone like Kelyn Rowe -- heck, I'd even support trading most of the draft in order to move into the Top 5 -- but I'm not sure how likely that is. Henderson indicated that this year's training camp will include nearly as many players as last year's did, but most of those guys will be competing for just a handful of spots at the tail end of the roster. Of course, that's where Neagle started last year and we know how that turned out.
I will add this caveat, though: If I know anything about Adrian Hanauer, Henderson and the rest of the Sounders front office it's that they are not ones to rest on their laurels. There are 10 weeks between now and March 8. If they see a way to improve this team, I have no doubt they'll take it. This could end up being a very interesting offseason.
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That’s all assuming zero contribution from Steve Zakuani or O’Brian White.
So where are we at on these two guys? Is it likely that we will we see either of them in 2012?
You will almost certainly see Zakuani in 2012
But you might not see vintage 2010 Zakuani for a while.
I get the sense White’s thing is a more on/off thing. If the clotting issue is resolved, he should be where any other player is that has to come back from a missed season (couple months of conditioning). If it’s not, he can’t play at all.
Nos Audietis
Wow, great writeup. Thanks!
And I also think that either way this has been a pretty interesting off-season, I mean, with Gspurning and Johansson I think our backfield just got a whole lot more interesting. I’m actually pretty excited to see how the ball moves back there once they get everything working.
But again, I really liked your analysis.
by BrooklynPreacher on Dec 30, 2011 5:28 PM PST reply actions
I think we are at a fork in the road
Your analysis is excellent. It really comes down to: does Palermo (or whomever) offer us X such that we shift our strategy, or not. That option is clearly on the table so this is not remotely decided yet. The title really should read path 1 and path 2. Just as easily say Ajax buys Fredy, or Alonso, etc. This coin is still in the air.
by Brougham Hooligan on Dec 30, 2011 5:39 PM PST reply actions
Nice piece Jeremiah
If the Flaco trade does go down and the team goes out and gets two more DPs, then the tail end of the roster gets really tiny. As in almost not existent, without displacing someone already on the roster. At that point life as a bubble player in camp gets really interesting.
It would also mean that the team will have almost no room for any draftee to make the roster. It makes almost no sense at the point not to bundle every pick they have and trade up to grab a GA player like Rowe or Wenger.
If I had to phrase how I see the FO right now, I would say they would be comfortable starting the season with the roster they currently have and will look at the combines and draft as an opportunity to pick up a developmental player or two. But if another opportunity to improve the overall quality of the roster presents itself, they will grab hold of the tiger with both hands and have a ball enjoying the ride.
I do like watching these men do their job.
Keep in mind that the tail end
includes current players like Estrada and Seamon and that the team may see trialists or later round draftees as potential upgrades, even though those guys have been here longer.
Nos Audietis
This: "It makes almost no sense at the point not to bundle every pick they have and trade up to grab a GA player like Rowe or Wenger."
I’m not sure a first round pick at #15 is going to make this roster, let alone anyone in the 2nd round or further down. Why not trade them all to move up to someone who not only who stands a good chance of making the roster, but also wouldn’t count against the salary cap with a GA contract.
by SoundersForever on Dec 30, 2011 7:51 PM PST up reply actions
Because we can trade our picks for things other than more different draft picks?
I personally would rather see us not draft at all and get allocation money than draft players we wind up cutting. Then again, it’s a good idea to pick up young players when you can, regardless of their skill.
I met a possum.
by s0merand0mdude on Dec 30, 2011 7:57 PM PST up reply actions
A lot of the players on the roster were late draft pick
For example, Carrasco was 27th overall and Fucito was 46th overall. I’d say the position in the draft is not a good indicator of future success
Most late round picks don't contribute though
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I think the question is
would any of the teams in the top 5 want to make this deal?
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by 253Sounder on Dec 31, 2011 11:01 AM PST via Android app up reply actions
Go to the mattresses
I think any of them will listen if the Sounders make them an offer they can’t refuse. Neither Montreal or Vancouver is so deep that handing them a slew of draft picks and AM won’t get serious consideration. But the team I could easily see taking a deal is NE, particularly if Shuler bolts.
by Abbott Smith on Dec 31, 2011 11:38 PM PST up reply actions
Seattle won't give up Allocation Money though
I think the easiest pick to grab would be Toronto’s #4. That may cost a current low contract player, pick 15 and pick 34.
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I agree if they don't trade Flaco
The premise here was that the team would be losing Flaco. In that case AM becomes negotiable in an effort to land say Wenger. To get Rowe, Toronto or NE’s pick shouldn’t require AM. NE’s pick might be available if Shuler doesn’t sign as a GA.
Yes, very good write up
Thanks Jeremiah for the awesome status update. I personally hope some form of “Just taking shape” happens. I want to believe that we don’t have to lose Fernandez in order for that to happen.
Either way, after Friberg’s departure, I’ve embraced the reality that in order to get ahead in this league, you have to be “moving” players in and out of the league. The players going out provide you with allocation dollars that help you sustain a higher cost roster than the rest of the league. The players coming in will hopefully be a product of good scouting. In the end, selling players such as Fernandez, Montero, or other core players is going to be an important practice over the next decade to ensure we’re more than just competitive each season.
by K61 on Dec 30, 2011 5:40 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
Max allocation $ a club receives is $625k for a transfer.
The rules were changed from $500k to $625k in early 2010.
I keep thinking back to Sigi's comments before last year.
I haven’t dug them up but some of you will remember. He basically said something along the lines of if this wasn’t the year, then it was time to start rebuilding some.
Now I do think Seattle’s rebuilding is different then other teams as we have pieces that could go off elsewhere and bring us significant monies to spend as we like in bringing in new top notch players, but I kind of fall on the side of this may be just the beginning.
This potential leaving of Flaco may have opened the door for it more than anything. The club may now have a choice of accepting the transfer fee and going into this more full change then before. It works out well for us potentially in the way you have shown, and especially in the case that he won’t be as missed as someone like Montero, who also would have brought in a lot of money but a bigger gap.
I am also wondering your opinion on as well as possibly a CM and Target Forward, bringing in a young CB as either depth or to groom for further down the road.
I think what Sigi said before last season
does not en up applying in full because everybody within the club agrees that the team and the results improved last season. Therefore they have been building on the same foundation/core. The only thing is that some veterans were let go, but for the most part they weren’t in key roles last season.
A true rebuilding would have happened if the team had had a worse year than in 2010.
basically this
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by Jeremiah Oshan on Dec 30, 2011 10:57 PM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
The thing about a possible Flaco trade
My question would be how do we pay for those two theoretical DP’s next year? If we need $600 thousand in allocation, what would we do the next year to keep them on the roster?
The Seattle Sounders are just reDQulous
I was thinking the same thing..
If it is $600K+ in allocation that can be used for players, why not sign a non-DP guy to a multi-year contract?
There are a lot of different ways to go about spending allocation though, and I think the focus of this article was around if we lost a DP, we would probably want to replace that player with another DP.
by SoundersForever on Dec 30, 2011 7:56 PM PST up reply actions
it's definitely a potential problem
Editor/writer at Sounder at Heart, MLS editor SB Nation. Follow me on Twitter. You'll Never Yacht Alone.
by Jeremiah Oshan on Dec 30, 2011 10:57 PM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
How long have you been considered a part of the official media brigade, Jeremiah?
I know you’ve been on the inside track for a while now, but this is one of the few SBNation blogs that goes above and beyond fan journalism on a regular basis.
I met a possum.
started covering practices in 2010
Dave has always done it. Team has been very good with giving us access
Editor/writer at Sounder at Heart, MLS editor SB Nation. Follow me on Twitter. You'll Never Yacht Alone.
by Jeremiah Oshan on Dec 30, 2011 10:59 PM PST via iPhone app up reply actions
Great Post
When does the team get back to training? It would be great to get an update on Zakuani’s progress when you have time. Did he recover from that illness/setback?
The team starts training in mid January
of course we’ll try to learn what we can about Zakuani
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I'd like to say, that between Dave's last post and this one
The quality of content on this website is just fantastic. Thank you both—and the fact that it is free is spoiling
by ClosetCoug on Dec 30, 2011 10:44 PM PST reply actions 5 recs
The only way Tagoe comes is in the summer window
As he has already played for 2 teams this season and that is the maximum allowed by FIFA. If the FO tries for Tagoe it will be for a end season push. That would mean that Fernandez would go in the summer to make room for him (or Montero but less likely imo). I think this is what will happen if the FO was to sell him at all. I think that if the FO can get a good first half of the season from Flaco (CCL Final, 1st place in the table, etc) and then sell him high in the summer to a euro team that would be best. I think we can maximize his value in the summer and have the best chance of replacing him. I would figure the FO would line up a blockbuster DP for the summer and sell Flaco off to pay for him.
I also think we aren't done shopping
We need a CB and a FWD imo. I think international signing and one draft pick. I think we either trade picks/player to move up, sell picks for Allocation/international spot, or keep #15 and take RJ Allen to groom for RB. This is a bad draft for CB and all the good FWD’s are at the top of the draft. I think Mattocks will go #1 and probably the best player. If we could bundle picks and players to move up to #1 that would be our best play.
by Colin Johnson on Dec 30, 2011 11:20 PM PST up reply actions
This is incorrect
Unless there are unfulfilled contractual obligations to the previous teams, Tagoe could switch to MLS in the winter window because MLS’s season overlaps those of the leagues his previous teams play in (both the SuperLiga and the SuperLig run August-May). There is a specific exception for just that eventuality in the status and transfer regulations.
Indeed
This is the rule:
“Players may be registered with a maximum of three clubs during
one season. During this period, the player is only eligible to play
official matches for two clubs. As an exception to this rule, a player
moving between two clubs belonging to associations with overlapping
seasons (i.e. start of the season in summer/autumn as opposed to
winter/spring) may be eligible to play in official matches for a third
club during the relevant season, provided he has fully complied with
his contractual obligations towards his previous clubs. Equally, the
provisions relating to the registration periods (article 6) as well as to the
minimum length of a contract (article 18 paragraph 2) must be respected.”
I was unaware of the 2nd part of the rule
so thanks for that. That means that to acquire him we need to buy him from Bursapor, who just spent 1.3 million euros to acquire him or for them to rip up his contract so he can move on a free. I still don’t see this moving happening in the winter. If he truly is a free as stated by the website I linked to then I could see us make a move for him in the winter because we don’t want another team snatching him up. I don’t think he’ll be a free so let him play out 1 year of his new contract to bring the transfer fee down and make a loan move for him in the summer with an option to buy out his last year and a half at the end.
by Colin Johnson on Dec 31, 2011 10:27 AM PST up reply actions
He may actually be a free
There are indications that they cut him or will be cutting him soon
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That would make for an interesting off season storyline
It will be interesting to see how much allocation will be needed to get Tagoe to fit. Hopefully we can move a few parts (player/s and/or picks) to grab some allocation or we will have to sell Fernandez. If we sign Sivebaek we will have surplus in the midfield so most likely players who could move imo Neagle, Evans, and Fernandez. I think the most likely in that order. I would love to see this line up vs Santos If Neagle is sold
-————————Tagoe
-————————Montero
Fernandez——-Evans -———Rosales
-————————Alonso
Gonzales Hurtado Parke Johansson
Move Fernandez inside and Neagle to the wing if Evan is sold, and Neagle to the wing if Fernandez is sold. I don’t think Zak will be ready to start then.
by Colin Johnson on Dec 31, 2011 1:09 PM PST up reply actions
If what I read about...
Lampard and Becks both at LA (4dps) is true then we’d better do something big, I think something like a Tagoe move would qualify.
by Adam Waltering on Dec 31, 2011 10:03 AM PST up reply actions
Heck, we'll just get 4 DPs ourselves then as well
This “LA Exemption” from the MLS Roster Rules is getting old fast. We should be allowed to do whatever they can
by Brougham Hooligan on Dec 31, 2011 11:57 AM PST up reply actions
Allowing a select few teams
To consistently dominate the rest of the league is certainly not going to help this league grow. I seriously hope LA isn’t allowed to get a 4th DP.
Changing the rules so they can dominate is bad
A select few dominating while following the rules is actually good for TV ratings.
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart Follow @bedirthan Dave's Twitter
Thankfully, I think our Front Office has
the intelligence, commitment, and resources to make sure we stay a part of that select few. That said, I’m for the boundaries continuing to stretch, as long as it’s done responsibly (doesn’t jeopardize the future stability of league growth) and is handled in a way that is fair for other teams to also take advantage of rule changes as they occur.
Imagine what we could do with a 4th DP ourselves!
ps: Paul Allen, will you be our sugar daddy in 2012? Let’s show LA was we’ve got!
Your article is from The Sun
Everything is likely completely made up, including the line about a possible exception the rules.
by AAAA on Jan 1, 2012 6:40 AM PST up reply actions 2 recs
^^^
Everyone please keep this in mind for the rest of the month and note that it is not limited to the Sun.
by Aaron Campeau on Jan 1, 2012 10:43 AM PST up reply actions
Flaco isn't going anywhere!
It would disrupt the chemistry of the attack! Does anyone who cares about winning Concacaf want to try to go against Santos without our only man who has scored against a mexican side? Building a team that is world-class means turning down transfer offers until insane large $
Club World Cup Champions 2012
Not to dispute the fact the Fernandez is an important player for us in the upcoming CCL matches
but he is not the only Sounder who has scored against a Mexican side. The Sounders have scored four goals against Monterrey. Montero scored home against Monterrey in 2011 and Fucito scored in the away match at Monterrey in 2010 (the second goal in that match was an own goal off a deflection from a Fucito shot).

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