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Analyzing The 2011 Schedule: Seattle Sounders Don't Seem To Have It Too Bad

Seattle Sounders fans should feel good about the 2011 MLS schedule. It really doesn't look like the Sounders have that bad of a road ahead.

At long last, we've finally found out how the Seattle Sounders' 2011 schedule is going to look. At SBN/soccer, I took a big-picture look at the MLS schedule and came away with the belief that no team seems to be inordinately put out. On a more team-specific basis, I came away feeling like the Sounders' schedule looks very much like the first draft didn't have to get changed too many times. Their home and road schedules are pretty evenly split between the first and second halves of the season, they don't play too many games on short rest and they never go on a road trip longer than two matches.

While I'm sure there will be plenty of Sounders fans that will find issues with various parts of the schedule, let me assure you that the Sounders did not get it any worse than any other team, and maybe even better. While I don't want to draw too many conclusions before a game has even been played, I don't see any stretches that look like real killers. Rather than address any specific areas of concern, I've decided to go through the schedule month-by-month.

Star-divide

March (three matches)

There might not be a tougher back-to-back on the Sounders' schedule than their first two games. They'll open at home against last year's Supporters' Shield winners, the LA Galaxy, and then head to Red Bull Arena for a match against the New York Red Bulls just four days later. It's perfectly conceivable that the Sounders could open their 2011 campaign with zero points through two matches. They'll close out the month with a home match against the Houston Dynamo, which is a game they really should win.

  • March 15: vs. Los Angeles Galaxy (2010 record: 59 points, +18 goal-difference). How it went in 2010: The Sounders lost both regular-season matches by an aggregate score of 7-1; beat the Galaxy 2-0 in Open Cup play; lost 3-1 in the aggregate playoff series.
  • March 19: at New York Red Bulls (51 points, +9). How it went in 2010: Each team beat the other 1-0 on the road.
  • March 26: vs. Houston Dynamo (33 points, -9). How it went in 2010: Sounders won 2-0 at home, but lost the season finale 2-1 on the road.
April (five matches)

Three of the five matches are going to be on the road, and two of those are against playoff teams. Three of the five games are also against teams that didn't make the playoffs last year, though, and none of these are on short rest. The toughest game, at least on paper, will be the road trip to defending MLS Cup champion Colorado. They'll also visit Philadelphia much earlier than they did last year, which should be good, as the summer heat really seemed to take a toll on the Sounders in 2010. The home games are against the Fire and Toronto FC, which are both undergoing massive rebuilding efforts.

  • April 2: at San Jose Earthquakes (46 points, +1). How it went in 2010: Each team beat the other 1-0 on the road
  • April 9: vs. Chicago Fire (36 points, -1). How it went in 2010: Sounders won the two games by an aggregate score of 3-1.
  • April 16: at Philadelphia Union (31 points, -14). How it went in 2010: Each team won at home, with the Sounders winning 2-0 and the Union winning 3-1.
  • April 22: at Colorado Rapids (46 points, +12). How it went in 2010: Each team won at home, with the Rapids winning 1-0 and the Sounders winning 2-1.
  • April 30: vs. Toronto FC (35 points, -8). How it went in 2010: Each team won at home, with TFC winning 2-0 and the Sounders winning 3-2.
May (six matches)

This is the most MLS games the Sounders will play in any month and features as tough a two-game stretch as they'll face all year. In fact, this may well be the toughest extended stretch the Sounders will face all year. The month opens with a pair of road games against DC United and the Columbus Crew just four days apart. United should be improved, and is one of my dark horses to make a playoff run. The Sounders will then return home for their first ever MLS match against the Timbers, another team I expect to be pretty good. That's followed with a home game against Sporting Kansas City, which should be a good team but will also be playing their eighth straight road game. The month will close with two games against likely Supporters' Shield contenders just four days apart, as the Sounders will host FC Dallas and then visit Real Salt Lake.

  • May 4: at DC United (22 points, -26). How it went in 2010: Both teams won on the road, with DC United winning 3-2 and the Sounders winning 1-0.
  • May 7: at Columbus Crew (50 points, +6). How it went in 2010: The teams tied their first match at Qwest 1-1; the Sounders won 4-0 at Crew Stadium; the Sounders won 2-1 in Open Cup.
  • May 14: vs. Portland Timbers (N/A). How it went in 2010: Sounders won Open Cup match in penalties.
  • May 21: vs. Sporting Kansas City (39 points, +1). How it went in 2010: Sounders won both matches by aggregate of 3-1.
  • May 25: vs. FC Dallas (50 points, +14). How it went in 2010: Teams tied both of their matches, 2-2 and 1-1.
  • May 28: at Real Salt Lake (53 points, +25). How it went in 2010: Team tied both of their matches, 2-2 and 0-0.
June (five matches)

Coming off what looks like their toughest month and heading into Open Cup season, June looks like it's very manageable. Just one of the teams they'll face made the playoffs last year and that's at home. The other four teams don't look to be very strong, although the Whitecaps are among them. If the Sounders are going to make a Supporters' Shield run, they'll probably need to pick up 12-15 points here.

  • June 4: at Chicago.
  • June 11: vs. Vancouver Whitecaps (N/A). How it went last year: The two teams haven't played since 2008.
  • June 18: at Toronto.
  • June 23: vs. Red Bulls.
  • June 26: vs. New England Revolution (32 points, -18). How it went last year: Sounders won at home 3-0; lost at Gillette Stadium 3-1.
July (five matches)

This could end up being a pretty busy month as the Open Cup quarterfinals will likely be July 12-13 and there's a chance the preliminary round of CCL could start around July 27 (coincidentally also the date for the All-Star Game). That could create a scenario that has the Sounders playing six matches from July 10-30. Add that to the three road games already scheduled and this could be a tiring month. Road trips will include Los Angeles, Portland and Houston and the Sounders will host two teams that should be pretty good in the Rapids and Union. This could very well be the make or break month for the Sounders.

  • July 4: at Los Angeles.
  • July 10: at Portland.
  • July 16: vs. Rapids.
  • July 23: vs. Union.
  • July 30: at Houston.
August (four matches)

This might seem like a light month, but this is also where non-MLS competition could really change the picture. The Sounders played three CCL matches in August last year, which seems to be pretty likely to repeat if they advance out of the preliminary round. The Open Cup semis would likely be Aug. 30-31. The MLS matches don't look to be overly tough right now, with trips to Dallas and Kansas City being the most obvious hurdles. The two home matches, against Chivas USA and the Crew, are definite must-wins.

  • Aug. 6: at Kansas City.
  • Aug. 13: vs. Chivas USA (28 points, -14). How it went in 2010: Sounders tied at Home Depot Center, 0-0; won 2-1 at Qwest.
  • Aug. 20: at Dallas.
  • Aug. 27: vs. Crew.
September (three matches)

All six teams that have already qualified or have a chance to qualify for this year's CCL (this includes Toronto and Vancouver) are only scheduled for three MLS games this month. Combine that with Don Garber's insistence that the All-Star Game selections wouldn't be affected by CCL and it seems to suggest CCL could start a little later than it did last year. If the Sounders make it to the group stage, that will likely mean three more matches this month. As it stands now, this does not look to be particularly tough. The Sounders' toughest match will almost certainly be hosting Real Salt Lake. They'll also host DC and visit Vancouver.

  • Sept. 10: vs. RSL.
  • Sept. 17: vs. DC United.
  • Sept. 24: at Vancouver.
October (three matches)

This is a month that looks like it might have some "trap" games. There's a chance the Sounders' focus could be on CCL, and maybe even another Open Cup championship game. Meanwhile, they'll visit New England (where they never seem to have much luck), host an Earthquakes team that will probably be tough and visit Chivas USA, somewhere they've never won. Those are three games that netted the Sounders a total of one point in similar games last year.

  • Oct. 1: at New England.
  • Oct. 15: vs. Earthquakes.
  • Oct. 22: at Chivas USA.

Comment 15 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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Glad to see that they are working around CCL

With fewer games during the CCL stretch and larger rosters than in the past, MLS teams should have fewer excuses for their performance in CCL than in the past.

Conversely, if the team doesn’t make it through the preliminary CCL round and stumbles at the beginning of the season, it could be a pretty anticlimactic year for Sounders fans.

The other noteworthy bits of the schedule, I think, is that MLS is not working around the Gold Cup at all, in a year where the Gold Cup actually means something. It seems like the league conceivably misses more players due to Gold Cup duty than due to World Cup duty, so teams could be undermanned somewhat in June. For instance, depending on the health of USMNT defenders, DeMerit could be missing for Vancouver when the Sounders meet them in June. Agudelo, Ream, and Marquez will all potentially be missing for NYRB on June 23rd, and I’m not sure about the Canadians, but presumably Toronto will be short-handed due to Gold Cup commitments on June 18th.

Later in the season, I do believe that the league is taking two weekends off for international fixture dates, which is nice to see.

by ubelmann on Feb 13, 2011 1:25 PM PST reply actions  

Those Fall dates are also likely World Cup Qualifiers

Which are more important than the Gold Cup.

Sept 3-7
Oct 8-12

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Feb 13, 2011 1:37 PM PST up reply actions  

I guess it is the early stages of WC qualification...

…and with the new format, almost all the CONCACAF teams may be involved at that point. I am thinking back to 2009, when it seemed like the Gold Cup was more disruptive to MLS than the WC qualifiers were.

by ubelmann on Feb 13, 2011 3:22 PM PST up reply actions  

It looks like 60+ points for the Shield this year

I don’t know that I see Sounders there.

I see them better on a PPM basis, but to get to 60 points would take a 1.76 PPM, or with last year’s schedule a 53 point season.

To get the Shield March may be the determinant 7 or 9 points in 3 and they will have a shot. 6 still marginal. Anything less and the Sheild probably goes by the wayside as two competing clubs will have the upper hand.

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Feb 13, 2011 2:52 PM PST reply actions  

First month will determine ss contention?

I really doubt they need to go undefeated in march just to have shot.

Editor/writer at Sounder at Heart, North American soccer editor SB Nation and of course follow me on Twitter

by Jeremiah Oshan on Feb 13, 2011 3:29 PM PST via mobile up reply actions  

I think it's more instructive to look at it on a home/away basis

60+ points for the SS seems reasonable given that there are more teams (so more chances for a team to have a run of good luck) and more games in the mix. But 1.76 PPM can be broken down roughly to 2.64 PPM at home and 0.88 PPM on the road. (That is pretty close to what RSL did last year, with 2.47 PPM at home and 1.27 PPM on the road.)

With 2.64 PPM at home and 0.88 PPM on the road, that would mean they would need 6.16 points in March, so even 6 points puts them only 0.16 points off pace. If we have any games we most expect to lose, it’s going to be road games against the top tier teams.

by ubelmann on Feb 13, 2011 3:45 PM PST up reply actions   1 recs

A hot start isn't necessary to win the Shield

Some recent Shield winners have come out scorching, but just as many have fallen on their face in their first month/four matches.

Last seven winners, with their point total in their first 4 matches:
2010: LAG, 12 points
2009: Crew, 2 points
2008: Crew, 9 points
2007: DC, 1 point
2006: DC, 12 points
2005: San Jose, 5 points
2004: Crew, 1 point

(I didn’t go beyond 2004 since results prior to that season are corrupted by overtime and shootouts.)

Winning early doesn’t hurt, but it doesn’t seem to be a necessity to capture the Shield. You make a good point about those first two matches being against top tier teams, but I won’t start rending my clothes if the Sounders lose to LA and New York.

You will hear us on Brougham, you will hear us on Occidental, you will hear us on King. We are all around you, there is no escape.

by 108Ultra on Feb 13, 2011 4:38 PM PST up reply actions  

Good analysis

Agreed, this schedule is pretty decent as far as travel, time off between games, and opponent strength distribution goes. The games in March are definitely an opportunity to make a statement if we’re going to make one.

Other observations I had from a fan attendance perspective:
- Only one Sunday home game all season: June 26 vs. New England
- Three weeknight home games all season: March 15 vs. LA, May 25 vs. FCD, and June 23 vs. RBNY
- MLS has 3 games on ESPN (not the ‘dos’) and Sounders FC feature in 2 of them (we host 1)
- Second year in a row we play at LA on July 4. Is this another tradition to go with hosting FirstKick each season?
- BYE week on weekend of Sept. 4th. A possible candidate for the friendly match?
- BYE week on weekend of Oct. 8th.

I’m really happy to see that Saturday scheduling is prevelant again this season. It seems like we were getting screwed in that department before (most recent example: Sunday, Halloween playoff game). I’m not fond of weeknight or Sunday games, so this schedule is great as far as that goes.

by K61 on Feb 13, 2011 5:29 PM PST reply actions  

those two weekend byes

coincide with world cup qualifiers..

no friendlies will be scheduled those weekends.

also sept 4th is late for a friendly. all top teams are in the beginning of their leagues so no top teams will still be traveling.

the friendly will be in july or august.

by Sandra_R on Feb 13, 2011 5:44 PM PST up reply actions  

Ahh, that makes sense

Didn’t know about the international dates. If we make the group stage of the CCL, then as Jeremiah noted, the BYE week will be nice so we’re not trying to squeeze them in between league matches.

If the friendly is going to be in July or August, then it definitely will be on a weeknight. Bummer.

by K61 on Feb 13, 2011 6:44 PM PST up reply actions  

June 26

Looks like a bit of a trap

by Little old me on Feb 15, 2011 2:53 AM PST reply actions  

Yeah, I could see that

Sandwiched between a tough home game against NYRB and a road game at LA and on short rest? I could definitely see that being a stinker.

Editor/writer at Sounder at Heart, North American soccer editor SB Nation and of course follow me on Twitter

by Jeremiah Oshan on Feb 15, 2011 8:49 AM PST up reply actions  

Not too mention Kevin Alston

Alston has done an amazing job of bottling up Zak during their meetings. I don’t have the quote handy, but I remember Zak singling him out as one of the best fullbacks in MLS.

by Dizzo on Feb 15, 2011 9:01 AM PST up reply actions  

.

Let me help with that.

You will hear us on Brougham, you will hear us on Occidental, you will hear us on King. We are all around you, there is no escape.

by 108Ultra on Feb 15, 2011 4:20 PM PST up reply actions  

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