Cascadia Rivalry Roster Comparison: Forwards
by sidereal on Feb 14, 2011 1:35 PM PST
in Sounders: MLS Regular Season
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Much has been said and written about the relative merits of the front lines of the inaugural MLS rosters for the Portland Timbers and Vancouver Whitecaps. The Timbers, the story goes, have stockpiled talent at forward while the Whitecaps have decided to build from the back and are relatively bare at striker (especially after drafting a forward in Omar Salgado at the 2011 MLS SuperDraft who can't even appear for the team until near the end of the season). But lost in that conversation is the fact that the apparent depth of the Timbers is quite sparse when it comes to experience.
I've compiled a list of the likely players at forward (including anyone who's likely to get appearances at the position in MLS play) and included the career number of games played and goals scored for a team in MLS or in a better league. Obviously, the question of which leagues are 'better' than MLS is contentious. Most of the top level leagues in Europe, obviously, along with Mexico. There are various supposedly objective metrics floating around that turn out to be piles of pro-European bias that tells us that Cyprus' top league outclasses MLS because it sends more teams to the Europa League. In the case of these rankings, I'll rely on my own judgement and I'll list any leagues that are borderline that I didn't include.
Also note that I made a couple of judgement calls on positioning. I've included Jorge Perlaza as a Timbers player (not that he adds any stats) and included Eddie Johnson as a forward but not Ryan Pore, as that's how the Timbers roster has them listed.
| Seattle Sounders FC | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Apps | Goals | Leagues Included | Leagues not Included |
| Fredy Montero | 56 | 22 | MLS | Colombia |
| Blaise Nkufo | 243 | 119 | Eredivisie, Bundesliga | 2. Bundesliga |
| O'Brian White | 33 | 4 | MLS | -- |
| Nate Jaqua | 187 | 47 | MLS, Austria | -- |
| Mike Fucito | 4 | 1 | MLS | -- |
| Total | 523 | 193 | ||
| Portland Timbers | ||||
| Player | Apps | Goals | Leagues Included | Leagues not Included |
| Kenny Cooper | 90 | 40 | MLS | 2. Bundesliga, League One |
| Bright Dike | 0 | 0 | -- | -- |
| Darlington Nagbe | 0 | 0 | -- | -- |
| Jorge Perlaza | 0 | 0 | -- | Colombia |
| Eddie Johnson | 111 | 18 | Belgium, Championship | League One |
| Total | 201 | 58 | ||
| Vancouver Whitecaps FC | ||||
| Player | Apps | Goals | Leagues Included | Leagues not Included |
| Atiba Harris | 126 | 15 | MLS | -- |
| Omar Salgado | 0 | 0 | -- | -- |
| Cornelius Stewart | 0 | 0 | -- | -- |
| Total | 126 | 15 | ||
It's clear that the Whitecaps are relying on Atiba Harris and not much else at forward, at least until Salgado's eligible to play. Judging from the preseason camp games, their most dangerous attacking player might be Davide Chiumiento and it won't be surprising if Teitur Thordarson plays with a lone striker.
The Timbers are impressive if you're comparing them to the 'Caps, but really they're relying on Kenny Cooper and a whole lot of hope. Nagbe might be a future superstar, but he might also be a bust. Same with Perlaza. Dike's likelihood of superstardom seems to be lessened after he was released by the Crew. And for all the heraldry that accompanies Cooper, he's scored fewer goals in MLS than Nate Jaqua, who's probably Seattle's fourth forward.
This is a position where Seattle holds the cards when it comes to experience and proven ability.
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Goals per game....
The reason Kenny Cooper is rated so highly is his goals per game average, a very impressive 0.44. Jaqua’s is only 0.25, and our best forward Montero is 0.39. I think a better way to look at this would be the goal average of the starters:
Seattle: 0.47 (Montero & Nkufo) 4-4-2
Portland: 0.44 (Cooper, Nagbe) 4-4-2
Vancouver: 0.12 (Harris) 4-5-1
Considering Nkufo is on the backside of his career and Nagbe is 0 in this analysis I’m not sure Seattle is that far ahead of Portland. Sure we have depth which is awesome, but on a single game match up with the best available?
Experience is the point of the comparison
And that comes with total stats, not rates.
Your formulation would assign Nagbe a scoring rate of 0.44 without a single minute played in the league, which is a bit generous.
Nos Audietis
Dike is out for most if not all of the season with a ruptured achilles.
That changes the equation a little for this season at least.
I think an interesting comparison is
Timbers and Whitecaps today vs. Sounders year 1 at this time.
The sounders opened their inaugural season with:
Montero – a lot of promise but no MLS experience.
Jaqua – a solid MLS pro.
LeToux – (little did we know!) one of our USL holdouts.
Jarrod Smith – Released due to surgery.
Zakuani was also thought to be a Mid/Forward but obviously, he found a regular home in the midfield.
Not knowing what we know now, I don’t think this really looks that much better than what Portland have. Basically, we had a guy with a lot of promise, a guy with solid MLS and european experience, and a solid holdover from the USL era.
by Jack Brando on Feb 14, 2011 11:26 PM PST reply actions 1 recs
USL
Dismissing USL performances is understandable given your criteria, but I think you shouldn’t. Not that it helps an assessment of Vancouver’s strike force, given how poor our strikers were last season. But the top teams in USL were highly competitive against teams from MLS over the past few years.
Come over to the Whitecaps Offside page:
http://vancouver.theoffside.com/
by Brenton Offside on Feb 15, 2011 9:11 AM PST reply actions
Any USL/NASL side would be in the MLS basement
They can get up for one game here and there, but over the course of a full season they’d be crushed. That said, there are obviously players that belong in MLS rather than USL (Osvaldo Alonso and Le Toux come to mind). Remains to be seen whether Knight, Davies, etc fall in that category. And the Caps don’t have any forwards from Div 2 anyway. Except Long Tan.
Nos Audietis
Jorge Perlaza
I think its a bit unfair to list Montero’s games and goals from his time in Columbia but not Perlaza’s (209 games/39 goals).
Ryan Pore
had a very good, solid run with Portland, including being Golden Boot winner in 2010. I know he was bumped from Kansas City in ‘08, but I think this two year run made him into a better player. He along with Cooper and the handful of others will give defenses hell this season. I think not listing Pore due to how he’s categorized was a bad call.
Vancouver sure will be an interesting team this year. I keep waiting to hear of some incredible signing that’s been kept under wraps. Right now, their offense is really looking thin. Are they even going to have a an 18? Of course I’m being a bit facetious here, but I mean really. We’re what, just about 3 weeks to kickoff and they’re still in the state they’re in? It just seems kinda crazy to me. And I’m not trying to rag on them. I actually want them to be successful. I can’t imagine anything greater than standing side by side with Vancouver supporters to destroy Portland, and then meet them in the MLS Cup and then destroy them.
by chrisperry1983 on Feb 15, 2011 12:04 PM PST reply actions
My bad
I didn’t see the part where you said “MLS or better”. I didn’t understand the criteria.
by chrisperry1983 on Feb 16, 2011 8:49 AM PST up reply actions
Plus if you want to start listing all the players that are 'attacking players', no matter their positon
we’d have to add Zakuani, among others, which would be a net plus for Seattle.
It does seem probable that Pore has improved. I just can’t see him ‘giving defenses hell.’ I don’t buy it. You can find players in USL, as we and other MLS sides have definitely found. But what are the chances that these guys will be a Le Toux or Alonso – a guy that was just ready and waiting to step up and excel at the next level – and what are the chances that they’ll be a Nyassi – an occasional contributor at a modest level? Sure, there might be one or two USL guys ready to step up and seriously contribute, but most probably wont. Maybe Pore will and maybe he won’t, but I’m not betting on it, personally. I actually think Dike has a better shot (as long as he recovers from injury fully and gets back on track).
I get what you're saying
but I think though that goal scoring translates no matter where you end up. As long as you’re with a team that works with you, you’re gonna do your thing. I think Pore is a good example of that. 10 goals his first season, 15 his second to win the golden boot. Dike didn’t even get a shot in MLS, he got cut right off the bat. Pore spent 3ish seasons with KC, although in a more limited role.
I guess in general here though as I mentioned a post above, I missed the basic purpose and criteria of this writeup. If we’re saying specifically forwards and not attacking type players, then this all makes a lot more sense.
by chrisperry1983 on Feb 16, 2011 9:10 AM PST up reply actions
I'm not sure I agree
Sure, scoring translates sometimes. Montero’s scoring translated from Columbia. Le Toux’s scoring abilities translated from the USL. But a lot of times goal scoring doesn’t translate when you move up to a better league – otherwise why aren’t a bunch of our players in Europe already? Montero wouldn’t have gotten 10 and 10 in the EPL this past season. The question is whether Pore’s scoring will translate. MLS defenders are bigger, faster, and more physical generally speaking and if I were a betting man, I’d say he’ll get far fewer than 15 this season, across all competitions. As a pure guess, I’d say a third of that or less.
Let's recall that Pore had a trial here
in 2010
Look at who he didn’t beat out.
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
I don't have any hard evidence
but my gut feeling is that the threshold between USL and MLS is a lot smaller than MLS and EPL. I think if you’re a great player in USL, you can fairly easily make a jump to MLS and be a great player here. I do hope that you are right and that he’s not effective. That would really leave Cooper as the biggest scoring threat, with the possibility of Nagbe.
by chrisperry1983 on Feb 16, 2011 1:50 PM PST up reply actions
I'd agree that the MLS/USL gap is smaller
than MLS/EPL, but there is still a significant gap. Otherwise why aren’t more of the USL players transferring up and establishing themselves in MLS? And why do players who are dropped from MLS rosters often latch on with USL teams and do fairly well?
Is it right to leave out Chiumiento?
As you’ve said, it looks like Vancouver will play with a lone striker. That puts Chiumiento in a withdrawn striker/attacking midfield role. As the comparison is with two 4-4-2 based teams, perhaps it is better to put him in this analysis, rather than saving him for the midfield.
It seems that makes the comparison like-for-like, with two forwards and four midfielders.
That also raises the question of where you put the Swiss first division, but I think it is probably the equivalent of the Austrian league, which you’ve included.
I might do midfielders as a followup
I didn’t include the Swiss league for Nkufo. On reflection, Switzerland is probably better than Austria (and the UEFA coefficients say so). Not sure either of them is better than MLS top to bottom, but it’s close enough that I should include Switzerland to be consistent. If I do mids, I’ll add Chiumiento’s stats.
Nos Audietis
Very interesting
That will make the timbers even more attack minded. Maybe they’re planning on a 4-3-3 lineup?
by Dizzo on Feb 16, 2011 7:33 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
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