Alvaro Fernandez And Designated Players As Sunk Costs
by Dave Clark on Apr 14, 2011 7:00 AM PDT
in Sounders: MLS Regular Season
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This is a story about Alvaro Fernandez, and Branko Boskovic in a curious way, but it could be a tale of crock-pots, lawnmowers, desktop computers, Flip video, or beer - pretty much anything. It is a tale of sunk costs and guaranteed money.
It is Jim McIlvaine, and Milton Bradley and Ken Griffey Jr 2.0.
The sunk cost is money that you have already spent. You no longer have it, but no matter how much money was spent that is not the value of the item. The value of the item is related to how effective it is, how useful. Can it do its job?
That crock-pot you bought yourself and never learned to use? Sunk cost. Either learn how to use it, re-gift it, donate it. Don't just use it because you spent the money, but because you enjoy slow-cooked foods.
Remember when you bought a lawnmower, except then you moved to a place without grass? Did you keep the lawnmower because it was good money spent thereby taking up storage? Or did you move on?
Do you still have your $3,000 Pentium desktop? If you do it better not be because you are a hoarder, but because you like Win95.
Am I really saying that Alvaro Fernandez is useless? No. Absolutely Not. What I'm saying is that he should never play because of the money spent. No player, in any league, should. The players that play should be the ones that help you win that game.
Maybe that's oversimplifying. But the fact is that in a 10-team playoff system, wins matter and Seattle needs them. Between either of Erik Friberg or Mauro Rosales they've found someone who fits the system better as a Right Wing. There's good news though.
First, the Reserve League exists so El Flaco can do like Boskovic and use it to learn, to adapt and became a greater asset for Sigi. He can use it to maybe learn a role where there is more need, less competition and that can have a greater impact on the game. He can use it to become Super Brad Evans: The box-to-box midfielder that 17 other teams would love to have.
Second, there will be US Open Cup and CONCACAF Champions League games come May. These trophies matter here in Seattle. Those wins will be important, and they'll give him another way to play himself into the lineup. This could be an additional 12 matches of joy for a player not normally in the Starting XI. In these he can probably start at Right Mid.
The money has already been spent. El Flaco is here. The primary window for summer soccer is closing in leagues such as MLS. That means he's here until the primary window for winter football opens - in July. Most MLS teams won't take a DP that isn't playing in trade. It is doubtful that the Sounders would let one go without compensation.
Both the Sounders, and Alvaro need him to be playing, to be developing. What they don't need is for him to be starting just because he has the letter D and P associated with him. There are six games before that next transfer window opens where Fernandez is assured of playing time if he wants it. Embrace those and become a better player, and maybe he doesn't need to transfer, but instead becomes the player that Sigi Schmid needs him to be.
He doesn't need to be a sunk cost. He could wind up being Cliff Lee (went to minors in 2007, became awesome). All it takes is acceptance of the current state of things and the desire to prove that merely temporary.
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An enigma
I think you hit the nail on the head with El Flaco’s situation.
Any sense as to where he is mentally in all this? Is he the type of guy who is willing to spend time on the reserves to prove his worth?
Yes!
My first question was about Flaco’s mindset in all this. We all know he’s not happy to not be starting, but how unhappy is he and how is he manifesting that? The guy was playing in the World Cup last year and now he’s going to be playing reserve games for an MLS team? I could understand if he had a chip on his shoulder.
Here’s to hoping he takes this as a challenge to step-up his game and find a way to fit into the system. I’d love to have him in our starting XI, but only if he gives us the best chance to win. He’s more talented than Evans, so perhaps being that box-to-box CM would be a good idea? He certainly has the motor for it, and better touch. But how is his positioning?
by ABTsportsline on Apr 14, 2011 10:08 AM PDT up reply actions
The question of his mentality is critical
and goes to whether he is sunk cost at all. Just like nobody is complaining about the $6M signing bonus the M’s paid to Ackley so he could sit in the minors, nobody will complain about about the money or DP slot for Flaco if he develops into a star. (Of course, this seems increasingly unlikely given his age and lack of development thus far.)
Whether or not he's happy, his contract is a sunk cost.
Whether or not we’re happy affects whether we choose to view his contract as an anchor or a sweet deal.
It's a valid question...
But there’s really no way of us knowing since he’s pretty reserved and only talks to us through interpreters. I doubt he’s going to be opening up to anyone he doesn’t really trust and I don’t think any reporters fit that bill.
Editor/writer at Sounder at Heart, MLS editor SB Nation. Follow me on Twitter
by Jeremiah Oshan on Apr 14, 2011 10:37 AM PDT up reply actions
Great Post Dave
I want to bash my head against the wall everytime someone says Flaco needs to be playing because of how much we are paying him, or that he is a waste of money if only playing in Open Cup/CCL matches.
Here here
i agree. I find it annoying how people say oh such and such is a DP and must start. If you want to go by what those people think they would be starting a player that’s total crap but yet that player is a DP so he has to start. Of course we would then be arguing why such a player is making DP money. Salary should never determine rather a player is starting or not.
I've never heard anyone say he should start because of
what we’re paying him. I’ve heard people say he should start because they like him. And also because he’s a DP. But not because of the pay.
I also think there’s a misunderstanding here. I don’t think most people are saying Alvaro should be a starter just because he’s a DP, but that in general, your DP SHOULD be a starter. As in ideally. And I think we can all agree on that right? I don’t think the FO signed Alvaro just to be a sub. But if that DP’s play is not up to par and/or there is a better option then you do what you gotta do and go with the better option no question.
by SoundersRiot on Apr 14, 2011 12:05 PM PDT up reply actions
I imagine the following caption to that picture:
“You want me to sit where??
But…. that’s a bench…."
by Orothar on Apr 14, 2011 8:40 AM PDT reply actions 5 recs
Hanauer and DPs
I like Hanauer’s mentality on DPs, in that he doesn’t care for the classification. This response is to regards to a stepped up effort in the search for a new DP.
I can’t stand the term DP. We’re looking for players that can help us win games and win championships, whether that’s a minimum-salary player or a 1 million, 3 million, 5 million dollar-a-year player. … If they get put into the league’s designated-player category, then so be it. To me, just like with any team around the world, there are players that are lesser compensated and higher compensated. They don’t make a distinction in any other sport or any other league anywhere.
Source: SeattleTimes
To his last point...
….to be completely pedantic, I don’t think that’s quite right. In the NBA (another salary-capped league), they have veteran exceptions and exceptions that allow a team to re-sign a player for more than other teams can offer. I think that’s basically the same idea as a DP, where a player is allowed to be compensated outside the normal salary cap structure, and you hear similar complaints from NBA fans, at least about, say, max contract guys. That guy’s not worth a max contract, etc. (Though I don’t know if it’s common to hear of fans complaining about wasting a mid-level or veteran exception.)
Kurt Thomas was a bum!
However, many of the guys getting max deals probably deserve more money. There’s no way, for example, LeBron and Joe Johnson should get the same paycheck.
In a salary-capped league..
…though, I think you could argue that Joe Johnson shouldn’t even get a max deal, because it restricts your ability to build around him.
Well said
Another outstanding post. Flaco strikes me as a player whose preference is to play a Withdrawn RMF/W. Works great if your team is built around two traditional “in the box” strikers. But the Sounders’ attack is predicated on Montaro playing a Withdrawn Forward. The Sounders need the RMF to attack. Makes Flaco the odd man out.
I’d like to see him work on the physical aspect of his game and learn the trade of a box to box MF or that of a RD. Imagine him in a role similar to James Riley and suddenly he becomes very valuable.
Flaco and Rosales
I think this puts the finger on the problem that Fernandez wants to play off in space, but I don’t think we can expect Fernandez to become a RB. He will simply leave the team if it comes to that.
What I am really curious about is whether or not Fernandez would look a lot better with Rosales than he would with Montero. Rosales is much more of a threat to push forward and beat a defense with pace (at least in the first 60 minutes) and would theoretically work out better for Fernandez as someone to both play passes into and also give Fernandez the extra space he needs to be successful.
It is worth a shot anyway, because he is not just a sunk cost in terms of acquisition, his salary is a continuing expense and if we don’t find a way for him to fit in this season he will be moving on.
by brokejumper on Apr 14, 2011 10:18 AM PDT up reply actions
Long term career opportunities
You’ve struck the other side of this coin. The main thrust of Jeremiah’s article is Fernandez’ value to the Sounders. But there is also the issue of how Fernandez hopes to develop and how he sees himself. I think Fernandez is facing a turning point in his career. As a RMF, he brings a fairly specialized type of skill set for the position. In the right scheme, he’ll fit well. But how many opportunities really exist in that specialized niche? Is he willing to limit his chances to make it to the “Show” by taking a hard line stance on how he sees himself? Or would he have a greater opportunity to have long term success by thinking outside of the box? He may not currently see himself as a RB. But that doesn’t mean that he wouldn’t make an excellent RB if he chooses to make the leap. From what I’ve seen of him, I think he has far broader potential in either the RB or Holding MF roles than as a RMF. But that is a decision that he will have to make.
by Abbott Smith on Apr 14, 2011 11:27 AM PDT up reply actions
Spot on, Dave
Every now and then, even good front offices are going to misjudge what a player is capable of, or how he fits in the system. The Sounders seem to have misjudged Flaco somewhat, but now that we’ve got him, if he helps the team most as a reserve, then that’s where he ought to be.
I completely agree with the post
but I think we might be misunderstanding the point-of-view that a DP should be a starter. When someone says a guy making DP money should be starting, what they often mean is, why would you continue to pay that much for a player who isn’t starting? Obviously, there are rules the Sounders have to live by, but it is a legitimate question.
The reason?
It’s already a sunk cost. The sounders don’t get the money back if they cut him.
Editor/writer at Sounder at Heart, MLS editor SB Nation. Follow me on Twitter
by Jeremiah Oshan on Apr 14, 2011 10:54 AM PDT up reply actions
The implication is
that fans are calling the quality of scouting into question. Which, from an average fan’s perspective, is questionable given the team’s track record with DPs.
The team's scouted
Alonso (from the USL to one of the best defensive mids in the league)
Montero (from unheard of Colombian to perennial MVP candidate)
Hurtado (from unheard of Colombian to perennial best defender candidate)
Rosales (early days, but huge contributor so far)
Friberg (unheard of to solid midfield contributor)
I’d say the track record is pretty good so far.
Nos Audietis
by sidereal on Apr 14, 2011 11:18 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Yes, but
the team also paid a LOT of money for guys that didn’t really work out like Ljungberg and N’kufo. (In fairness Ljungberg gave us a solid 2009, but overall I’d say that wasn’t a “great” acquisition)
Threeball’s point is a good one though. We’re great at scouting unknowns, but suck at DP’s?
I think the underlying message here is very important, and I like that we’re finding guys like Rosales and Friberg on the “cheap”. We probably should stop clamoring for the next big-name European player looking for retirement in MLS and instead keep letting our FO do what they do with these “unknowns”
by ABTsportsline on Apr 14, 2011 11:29 AM PDT up reply actions
I kinda disagree on what you say here
Ljungberg was by all respects a good player in 09. It was his temper that gave him the bad image that we all had of him. Then an un-producted 2010 sealed the deal. I still feel he was a good acquisition – he was still highly skilled, smart, a veteran, and had leadership qualities. Ego appeared to be part of the downfall unfortunately.
Nkufo was an excellent signing. He was good for us no matter how you look at it. Yes he was inconsistent in goal scoring, but he helped make Montero that late MVP candidate by giving him space and making things happen. The sudden parting of ways was a fluke thing. Nobody REALLY knows what it was about, but it sounded like more of a personnel issue than him sucking.
I think we’ve done well with our DPs. We just haven’t been fortunate to have a JPA kind of situation where a DP comes and stays and produces. Fernandez might be a fluke, but he really is a good player. DP worthy? Maybe not. But we’ll see what happens I guess.
by chrisperry1983 on Apr 14, 2011 11:48 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
I agree wholeheartedly
Its also worth noting Alvaro’s salary, although high, isn’t quite DP level. He is a talented player, and he’s paid as such. It seems to me this is more of a system issue than a player issue. He simply doesn’t provide at RW what Sigi is looking for or needs with the current system.
Fernandez also allows us to play our starting XI in the CCL, then rest them in league matches without a significant drop-off in performance. This type of action is standard operating procedure for many top clubs.
Nos audietis in somniis
Nos audietis in altum
by Seattle Coug on Apr 14, 2011 12:56 PM PDT up reply actions
speaking of Flaco's DP status
Does his classification as a “DP” go away at some point in the future? We had to make him a DP due to buying out his contract, correct? At some point we’re amortizing that fee and I would imagine it would go away, thus leaving his cost to the team as only his salary.
Does he leave the DP status next year, or some future year? What is his actual annual salary and when does that be the only cost for Flaco to the Sounders?
by ABTsportsline on Apr 14, 2011 1:14 PM PDT up reply actions
As I understand
the transfer fee is amortized over the life of his initial contract. Once its finished he’ll go back to non-DP status, assuming no significant increase in salary obviously.
Nos audietis in somniis
Nos audietis in altum
by Seattle Coug on Apr 14, 2011 1:22 PM PDT up reply actions
Ljundberg and Influence
Ljundberg fit very well with the scheme and personnel the Sounders had in 09. When Jacqua and Evans went down and LeToux got picked up by the Union in 2010, the team chemistry that allowed Ljundberg to thrive evaporated. Suddenly he was out synch and his production suffered.
And his response to the physical play in the MLS began to have a negative impact on the team as a whole. The officiatiang crews appeared to be holding it against the team and some of the younger players appeared to be following his example. Ultimately it felt as if the Sounders FO decided they simply had to make a move in order to move forward.
None of this is an indictment on the team’s scouting, however. He fit the roll he was brought in to fill. As the team moved in a new direction, he no longer fit.
by Abbott Smith on Apr 14, 2011 12:58 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
But
Wasn’t talking about assigning fault here – just that it wasn’t a successful experiment, obviously.
The point was less about assigning blame as it was about having more success with non-designated players. :)
by ABTsportsline on Apr 14, 2011 1:15 PM PDT up reply actions
yep
I certainly don’t know what goes into scouting, but I can’t imagine they make players take psychological exams and look at Rorschach tests and tell them their feelings to make sure they aren’t irrational or rage-y people.
by chrisperry1983 on Apr 14, 2011 3:31 PM PDT up reply actions
In some ways, I'll agree, but
We’re great at scouting unknowns, but suck at DP’s?
Who is good at scouting DPs? Name one DP that has been successful in MLS – the list is Angel… then way down in a distant second are Ljungberg, Beckam, and Nkufo. And that’s it (too early to say much about Montero or Saborio as DPs, and anyway, those guys are different from the Henry-type DPs). So, yeah, the FO doesn’t have a great track record. But you could argue that they do have perhaps the best track record in MLS for it.
"Suck" was too strong a word
I shouldn’t say we “suck”, just that it’s not our strong suit. But you’re right – that’s not to say anyone in the league is enjoying much success with DP’s.
But that was also sort of the point I was trying to make. Instead of clamoring for aging European DP’s, I’ll take our FO’s scouting of lesser-known players all day long.
by ABTsportsline on Apr 15, 2011 9:37 AM PDT up reply actions
There's no legitimate argument for questioning Sounders' scouting
As sidereal points out, they have a VERY good scouting record, one many clubs would be jealous of. Further, there’s no questioning both Ljungberg and Nkufo had positive impacts on this club when they were brought in. That they ultimately left for reasons other than performance should have little to no bearing on this discussion.
Nos audietis in somniis
Nos audietis in altum
by Seattle Coug on Apr 14, 2011 11:31 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Are you saying you'd rather find $$ DP's than unknowns?
That was the point I was making. ;)
Our successes finding guys like the Alonsos, Monteros, Hurtados, Rosaleses, and Fribergs have been tremendously more beneficial to the team than what we have gotten from the significantly more expensive Ljungbergs and N’kufos. Clearly the latter two are quality players, but they were nowhere near as effective or compatible with our squad as the aforementioned “discovery” players were & have been over time (and they cost quite a bit more, too!).
If we want to nit-pick, yes, Ljungberg helped put this team on the map with his name cachet, and again – he had a great 2009, yes. But he wasn’t the “answer” for us, which is what I was getting at. If you look at the unknowns – they’re all still here with us and most are still in our core starting XI. The imported DP’s? They were helpful in their short stints here, but where are they now?
Call it a very rudimentary cost-benefit-analysis with regards to players we’ve had. I think our scouting does a fine job on the unknowns (which is also much more difficult IMO), but outside of short-bursts within a season – I think our importing of DP’s, so far, has left something to be desired.
by ABTsportsline on Apr 14, 2011 1:11 PM PDT up reply actions
Sometimes I think the expectations for a DP are way too high
No DP is going to be “the answer.” This isn’t the NBA, you’re not going to win on the merits of one or three superstars. In that sense, Hanauer has absolutely the best attitude about DPs—it’s a way for the team to bring in a player who is at a higher compensation level, but he’s still just one guy out of eleven, and can only do so much for you. I have been happy with Ljungberg, Nkufo, and Montero as DPs. Flaco hasn’t done much so far, but he’s also been the lowest compensated guy of the DPs. And as RSL shows, you don’t even need DPs to build a deep, successful squad.
Ours is more an argument of how the DP position is used
I expect the DP slot to be used on one of three ways:
1. Sign a player with another one or two years of premium service left who would normally be out of our price range (Ljungberg and Nkufo)
or
2. Sign a younger player who otherwise might not stick around as long (Montero)
or
3. Allow the purchase of a talent who is interested in playing here.
I generally don’t expect more than a couple years service out of someone once they achieve DP status, since this basically positions them as someone more talented than the vast majority of the league; this should generally place them on an upward or downward career trajectory, and assuming they continue on this trajectory they will either move on or should take a pay cut (economically speaking) very soon.
I think expecting a long-term (by this I mean more than 3-4 yrs) impact player from the DP slot is generally unrealistic, and if there isn’t decent turnover from these slots (or maybe an increase in salary to the player in it at least) you’re limiting the growth of your team.
The “discovery” players were brought in for long-term impact, the DPs for short-term. Both have filled or are filling their roles acceptably I’d say. We don’t really know what the expectation was in bringing Flaco in, so its hard to say whether he’s performing up to or not to what Hanauer, et al thought they’d be getting. This is all to say, I consider Flaco in the discovery group and an unfortunate victim of salary cap rules. The opportunity cost of bringing him in can really only be known by the FO, and this really is the only important part of the DP slot use in the end.
Nos audietis in somniis
Nos audietis in altum
by Seattle Coug on Apr 14, 2011 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sequence of Acquisition
I like your comment about Flaco as a discovery player who is a victim of the cap structure. I think it’s also important to remember that his place on the team has changed as the team was able to get additional players. At the time he was brought in, he was one of only a couple of options. In the interim, the Sounders have brought in both Friberg and Rosales and Evans has gotten healthy. These moves have all bolstered the depth and quality of the Sounders squad. But they happen to all be in direct competition with Flaco for playing time. If Flaco had been acquired using a DP slot with Evans healthy and Rosales and Friberg already on the roster, this would be a very different conversation.
by Abbott Smith on Apr 14, 2011 3:04 PM PDT up reply actions
Precisely
its very important to remember this. Players have different values to different teams at different times, and trying to retroactively grade the value assigned at the time versus value assigned to another at a different time (Flaco then vs. Friberg/Rosales now) is an exercise in futility. We can argue about value at the moment, but value at the time has already been set (and in my opinion he was absolutely worth the $ spent at the time).
Nos audietis in somniis
Nos audietis in altum
by Seattle Coug on Apr 14, 2011 3:27 PM PDT up reply actions
Great comments in this thread about DP strategy
The Sounders scouting has been very successful overall, but as fans its okay for us to look at the front office’s strategy when it comes to DPs. The key is to put it in perspective with other teams and other DPs. The Sounders have largely managed to avoid the big pitfalls other teams have had with DPs. I’m actually working on some posts on the topic for when the transfer window closes for MLS.
P.S. Can anyone recommend a site with MLS stats that go back a few years? I’ve been trying to use the MLS site, but they only have historical stats for the teams and league leaders.
still pretty weak
…but espn is a bit better
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/league/_/league/usa.1/major-league-soccer?cc=5901
by nimajneb on Apr 14, 2011 6:25 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
How far back do you want to go?
<a href=“http:// ”http://www.football-lineups.com/team/Colorado_Rapids/Major_League_Soccer_2011/Stats/" target="_blank">http://www.football-lineups.com/team/Colorado_Rapids/Major_League_Soccer_2011/Stats/" target="new">football-lineups.com is good as long as you only want the last few years.
Editor/writer at Sounder at Heart, MLS editor SB Nation. Follow me on Twitter
by Jeremiah Oshan on Apr 14, 2011 6:44 PM PDT up reply actions
Great points regarding DP's over time
Obviously DP’s aren’t expected to be here 4-5 years. I don’t think a 2-3 year stint should be too much to ask, though.
I think we did proper diligence on Ljungberg, and I wouldn’t change that signing if we could do it all over. Ultimately, he was still great for the team.
N’Kufo might have been a bit more rushed, but we were facing injuries and needed last-minute help at the striker position. I think that one was probably more rushed
by ABTsportsline on Apr 15, 2011 9:41 AM PDT up reply actions
Excellent post
I completely agree.
Win or lose, we'll always support you.
by johnjahafanclub on Apr 14, 2011 10:32 AM PDT reply actions
My thought on DPs moving forward is
that we will be more likely to have success pulling guys from places other than Europe. I’ve said this before, for a couple of different reasons. Mainly, unless somebody just kind of falls to you, if they have anything to be discovered, there are many higher paying leagues there, and when they come here, the guys who have experience in the top leagues can’t seem to deal well with officiating and physical play. Guys from Latin America (for one example…. the same may or may not be the case elsewhere, but I watch football from there and Europe, and not the other regions) seem to be more than happy to come here, and they are accustomed to flat-out crooked officiating, so they seem more likely to just get on with the game here.
Anyway, when it comes to DPs, it doesn’t seem entirely necessary to load up on them if you get decent-quality players from the Americas. Really, other than the top clubs in Mexico and Brasil, and other than the top couple guys on most teams, the other leagues throughout the Americas pay hardly anything compared to ours (for instance, Boca Juniors pays a guy like Riquelme seven figures USD, but has had other guys who play first team making less than our minimum). A lot of them have trouble even making the low payroll they have. Now, many of these places get raided for talent by the Euros (Brasil, Argentina, and Uruguay in particular), and a lot of guys head off to random leagues in Europe just to get their foot in the door, but a lot of them also flame out over there and get in some pretty shady situations. A league like MLS can become very appealing to some pretty good players, without going to ridiculous pay levels.
Then if you get a guy in under that situation and he’s a young guy who starts to get options, you DP him for a couple years like we’re doing with Montero before hopefully selling him (I say hopefully because for that to happen, he’ll have to have a pretty awesome next year or two). If that, plus “the transfer fee is the only reason for the DP tag” becomes how we use the thing, I’d be pleased.
I still wish the cap was higher, but even without that, you can get extremely good players for cheap by looking to the South. It’s just a matter of their transfer rights and how much they’re dreaming of the Euro crazy money. We may not offer that payday immediately, but making $90,000 with us beats making $40,000 in Albania.
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