Philadelphia Union Vs. Seattle Sounders, Match Card: Projected Lineups, Formations, Statistics

by Jeremiah Oshan on Apr 15, 2011 2:40 PM PDT in Sounders: MLS Regular Season

We know that Fredy Montero traveled with the team, but it's still unclear if he's going to be deemed fit enough to even play, let alone start. We're operating under the assumption that the best-case scenario involves him sitting on the bench when the Seattle Sounders visit the Philadelphia Union on Saturday.

In his place, we're expecting to see the same lineup that Sigi rolled out last week, with Mauro Rosales in the withdrawn forward spot and Erik Friberg on the right side. Small note: I think this would be the first time we'll have correctly projected all 11 starters (which I have obviously now jinxed).

The Union lineup was provided to us by Scott Kessler of the Brotherly Game, SB Nation's Philadelphia Union blog. It looks pretty much like the lineup they used last week against the New York Red Bulls with Keon Daniel at left mid and Amobi Okugo at center mid as the two potentially unexpected starters.

Programming note: I've tweaked the cards again, as I've decided to include goalkeeper stats. Any feedback is always appreciated. Printer-friendly version: union-sounders 0416

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Interesting

The Union look like the opposite of the Sounders at this point. We’ve outshot our opponents by a significant margin, and they’ve been outshot by their opponents. If I understand some of the statistical analysis that’s been done here the last few weeks, they may be due for a bit of a regression.

It looks like they are scoring at a reasonible pace given the shots they are generating (about 1 goal per 10 shots), but despite giving up 47 shots they’ve only allowed 1 goal. That doesn’t mean we’ll score a lot against them – it just suggests that their defense isn’t as strong as advertised (or their keeper is way better than advertised).

I don’t have any good reason for assuming this, but it seems (intuitively) that if players score about 1 goal per 10 shots or so, then teams probably give up an average of 1 shot per 10 goals. Perhaps the Union should have 4 or 5 goals against, instead of 1. I’m probably wrongly applying an average to a particular (when there are possible reasons – like a great keeper – that a given team may give up fewer goals / shots than some other team), but it does look like Philly is due to regress.

PLEASE do so against Seattle!! Let’s have both teams regress to the mean. Then, Seattle should score 1 or 2, and Philly 0 or 1, and we should be favored to get a result here. Wouldn’t that be great!

by Orothar on Apr 15, 2011 3:10 PM PDT reply actions

Nope, you're using same basic logic as us...

Teams definitely are capable of over/under performing over the course of the season, but Union are way over performing and something will have to give one way or another.

Editor/writer at Sounder at Heart, MLS editor SB Nation. Follow me on Twitter

by Jeremiah Oshan on Apr 15, 2011 3:45 PM PDT up reply actions

Both clubs defy their records

but I’d feel more comfortable as a Sounder fan than a Union fan right now.

by ABTsportsline on Apr 15, 2011 3:50 PM PDT reply actions

Except that the Union are defying their record in a good way

and we’re doing it in a bad way. Other than that, yeah (especially because if I was a Union fan I’d have to watch the not-terribly-attractive soccer they’re playing at the moment, too).

by Nevtelen on Apr 16, 2011 10:55 AM PDT up reply actions

Another thought

Since its Friday and I don’t feel like getting work done right now…

On the Soundersfc scouting report that Arlo does before each match, Arlo commented that the thought the Philly defense was weak against offenses that play the ball into feet and use dribbling to advance it. Given that Fernandez is (at least to my casual eye) a fairly good on-the-ball dribbler, would it be smart tactics to use him as a central-mid late in the match (i.e. to sub for Evans)?

by Orothar on Apr 15, 2011 3:51 PM PDT reply actions