Power Rankings, Points Per Match And Other Metrics Judging Current Form

by Dave Clark on May 17, 2011 2:22 PM PDT in Sounders: MLS Regular Season

There are many ways to judge "form." In essence that's what the dozens (hundreds?) of Power Rankings attempt to do. They try to remove pure standings and give you the author's impression of which team is better. SB Nation Soccer does ours differently trying to recognize that minute differences are meaningless. There are other ways to measure form or match-ups as well.

You can just look at the points won in the last five games, or you can look at the Sagarin Ratings. Oddly enough, no matter what method you use to measure, the Sounders are in the Wild Card bubble, either just out, or just in the MLS Cup Playoffs. This despite the injuries that have wracked the team.

Below you will find a table that is sortable by each of the following measures; PPM, Total Pts, SBN Power Ranking, Sagarin combined rating and points in last 5.

Club	PPM	PTS	SBN Power	Sagarin	Last 5
Los Angeles Galaxy	1.67	20	95	2.56	8
FC Dallas	1.70	17	74	2.12	13
Real Salt Lake	2.29	16	100	2.85	10
New York Red Bulls	1.67	15	98	2.41	10
Colorado Rapids	1.50	15	68	2.24	6
Portland Timbers	1.56	14	54	2.16	10
Seattle Sounders FC	1.27	14	62	2.13	8
Philadelphia Union	1.56	14	63	2.21	5
Columbus Crew	1.44	13	39	1.89	7
New England Revolution	1.30	13	30	1.75	7
Houston Dynamo	1.30	13	48	2.07	5
Chivas USA	1.33	12	33	2.02	10
DC United	1.20	12	31	1.77	5
Toronto FC	1.00	11	6	1.46	5
San Jose Earthquakes	1.00	9	18	1.73	4
Chicago Fire	0.89	8	13	1.70	4
Vancouver Whitecaps	0.73	8	3	1.29	2
Sporting Kansas City	0.57	4	1	1.65	1

In points for last five the red numbers are hot teams earning 2 PPM. Blue means that a team is earning less than 1 point per game during their last five matches.

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Comments

I find it interesting that

FC Dallas has thrived after the loss of Ferreria, while SSFC and RSL have struggled after the losses of their playmakers. It seems that Dallas may have been over-relying on Ferreria, and teams were keeping him bottled up. Now they have shifted tactics and found something that works, while their defense has also battened down the hatches.
RSL seems to have had their confidence shaken after getting shut down at JELD-WEN, losing Morales, and barely missing out on the Club World Cup.
Sounders seem to have lost their creativity when they needed it most, and their inability to produce shutouts in the absence of that creativity is crippling.

This is not to suggest SSFC or RSL should be in panic mode, or that Dallas is better off without Ferreria, just interesting to see how different teams cope. I believe RSL will return to form eventually, and SSFC will be healthy soon enough. Another interesting note is that RSL plays at Dallas and then SSFC in Rio Tinto over the next two weeks. We’ll see where things after that.

by agtk on May 17, 2011 2:37 PM PDT reply actions

Our depth is overrated

I don’t think we have the depth we thought we had to overcome these injuries. TF play is lacking, we seriously lack speed, still struggle on set pieces, and outside of Montero who is overly-selfless with the ball – we have no real attacking threats.

I’m not going to say we have to add someone to stay competitive, but I have to wonder what Adrian and Co. will do in the next transfer window with a free DP slot and some needed help to overcome all these injuries.

by ABTsportsline on May 17, 2011 4:32 PM PDT reply actions

The depth is starting right now and Seattle picked up 8 points in last 5

So I’m confused how it was overrated. Do you know any other team that would get points like that missing so many players?

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on May 17, 2011 4:36 PM PDT up reply actions

I know it's a rhetorical question....

…but I can’t help posting a response anyway. Real Salt Lake has the depth to make a similar run using reserves as they’ve shown when they had to field a mostly 2nd team line-up to rest starters for CCL games. The Colorado Rapids have also been playing reasonably well while missing a huge chunk of their front line and a few other guys on their squad nursing various injuries.

Those are the only other two teams I can think. NYRB has lots of depth on paper, but haven’t had to use it yet. I personally don’t think the Galaxy are as deep as many think they are. Other teams like the Whitecaps and DC United have really struggled when hit with multiple injuries and other absences.

by Dizzo on May 17, 2011 4:47 PM PDT up reply actions

RSL did the Reserve lineup trick once

Colorado has performed weaker than Seattle has as their number of injuries has increased.

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on May 17, 2011 5:04 PM PDT up reply actions

Very good points

I would counter that RSL has a few players they rotate in quite often so the line between reserves and starters isn’t quite as clear for them. However, their midfield has looked very out of sorts without Javier Morales.

You’re spot on about Colorado.

by Dizzo on May 17, 2011 5:14 PM PDT up reply actions