Seattle Sounders Record Better Than You Think
by Dave Clark on Jun 13, 2011 8:11 AM PDT
in Sounders: MLS Regular Season
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Seriously. Sigi Schmid's Sounders aren't dominating as the fans and team had hoped. They look merely average, which in MLS means competing for only two trophies (MLS Cup, US Open Cup). Sure, it would be nice if they competed for the Supporters Shield as well, but we know why this is true. The reality of injuries means that at least 3 starting quality players have been left off the 18 due to injury from late April to the present. Every game, at least 3, sometimes many more.
It has been pointed out on twitter, but it should be pointed here as well. In their last five games only two teams have been better than Seattle's 8 points in 5 matches. Just two. From week three on Seattle has a Points Per Match of 1.62. Since that Colorado Rapids match when the fortunes of the team took that shift Seattle has 13 points in 9 played for only 1.44 v their overall PPM of 1.38. That is a great display of depth from the squad. This is a team that has gotten through a rough patch and looks likely to be able to maintain a decent pace of 1.60 PPM or better even without a great signing or two combined with the return of O'Brian White.
This is still a team that is favored to win matches against two-thirds of the league by Sagarin. A team with the 6th best record v top 4 teams. The 7th best v top 8 teams. That's an indicator that it stands a chance against any team, any day - Playoffs included. That again is without talent additions.
Sports Club Stats (I prefer their 50/50 method as it recognizes the parity of the league and isn't built on false models) has Seattle with a 64.1% chance at the Playoffs. But the goal is obviously more than that. Sounders FC has a 24% chance at a protected Western Conference slot, and still a 3% at the Supporters Shield. Still without adding talent or getting healthy.
The sky is not falling. The depth has purely displayed itself as players like Tyson Wahl, Lamar Neagle, Servando Carrasco and Mike Fucito have shown that they are capable of starting and competing in League play. Each has used the Reserve League (5-0-0 another sign of depth) to show their ability to not just be in the 18, but to start and succeed. Today's Reserve match is at 11AM at Starfire and will be live blogged.
Seattle has already brought in two trialists and we will see probably a dozen total. There is almost certain to be a designated player added, and depending on what cuts/trades are made another player or two who belong in the 18.
Do we want more? Of course. But the situation is not dire. The coaching is not horrid. The depth was not a myth.
| Club | PTS | GP | PPM | Pace | GF | GFp | GA | GAp | GD | Last 5 |
| Los Angeles Galaxy | 31 | 17 | 1.82 | 62 | 22 | 1.29 | 14 | 0.82 | 8 | 11 |
| Real Salt Lake | 21 | 12 | 1.75 | 60 | 14 | 1.17 | 7 | 0.58 | 7 | 5 |
| Philadelphia Union | 22 | 13 | 1.69 | 58 | 16 | 1.23 | 11 | 0.85 | 5 | 8 |
| FC Dallas | 25 | 15 | 1.67 | 57 | 18 | 1.20 | 16 | 1.07 | 2 | 8 |
| New York Red Bulls | 22 | 14 | 1.57 | 53 | 21 | 1.50 | 13 | 0.93 | 8 | 7 |
| Colorado Rapids | 22 | 15 | 1.47 | 50 | 17 | 1.13 | 14 | 0.93 | 3 | 7 |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 19 | 13 | 1.46 | 50 | 20 | 1.54 | 16 | 1.23 | 4 | 13 |
| Seattle Sounders | 22 | 16 | 1.38 | 47 | 18 | 1.13 | 15 | 0.94 | 3 | 8 |
| Portland Timbers | 17 | 13 | 1.31 | 44 | 15 | 1.15 | 19 | 1.46 | -4 | 4 |
| Columbus Crew | 18 | 14 | 1.29 | 44 | 14 | 1.00 | 16 | 1.14 | -2 | 5 |
| DC United | 16 | 13 | 1.23 | 42 | 18 | 1.38 | 24 | 1.85 | -6 | 6 |
| Chivas USA | 17 | 14 | 1.21 | 41 | 17 | 1.21 | 16 | 1.14 | 1 | 5 |
| Houston Dynamo | 18 | 15 | 1.20 | 41 | 19 | 1.27 | 18 | 1.20 | 1 | 5 |
| Chicago Fire | 14 | 14 | 1.00 | 34 | 16 | 1.14 | 19 | 1.36 | -3 | 6 |
| Toronto FC | 14 | 15 | 0.93 | 32 | 15 | 1.00 | 25 | 1.67 | -10 | 4 |
| New England Revolution | 13 | 14 | 0.93 | 32 | 11 | 0.79 | 18 | 1.29 | -7 | 3 |
| Sporting Kansas City | 10 | 12 | 0.83 | 28 | 16 | 1.33 | 20 | 1.67 | -2 | 6 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 11 | 15 | 0.73 | 25 | 16 | 1.07 | 22 | 1.47 | -6 | 3 |
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I am lazy
so maybe someone else can answer thsi for me.
How do we compare in PPM compared to last year at this point?
Scoreboards, not billboards.
Regular season, not pre-season.
Because I can't leave well enough alone
We’re way ahead of it. Last year through 16 matches: 16 points, PPM 1.0. This year through 16 matches: 22 points, 1.38.
Editor/writer at Sounder at Heart, MLS editor SB Nation. Follow me on Twitter
by Jeremiah Oshan on Jun 13, 2011 8:57 AM PDT up reply actions
And our record was 4-8-4
I kid you not, the complaints sounders “faithful” are seriously bugging me right now. We are doing just fine. Alonso’s game on Saturday was just fine. Montero on Saturday was just fine. We were 5 minutes and a fluke goal away from a 1.5 PPM and third best outright in the league on points.
And PPM, for that matter, isn’t really a reliable indicator of consistency: after all, it wasn’t that long ago that a certain team just to the south of us was crowing about how they had the same points as us and 3 games in hand, and look where that’s got them.
they still have three matches on us
PPM isn’t a meant to be an indictaor of consistncy, it is meant to be a more accurate gauge of the standings because of the wide disparity im matches played
...that's MISTER Keller to you!!!
by malcontentjake on Jun 13, 2011 9:15 AM PDT up reply actions
and they are behind us in PPM, btw
Editor/writer at Sounder at Heart, MLS editor SB Nation. Follow me on Twitter
by Jeremiah Oshan on Jun 13, 2011 9:16 AM PDT up reply actions
I wasn't saying that it was
More that it frequently is treated as if it is.
*sigh*
So we’re better than last year’s first-half horror show. That doesn’t mean we’re Good.
Look, we’re an average team, and I will be the first to say that “average” is still right in contention in MLS. But I refuse to not feel at least a little bit disappointed that we are just “average”, and that is really where I am coming from…
...that's MISTER Keller to you!!!
by malcontentjake on Jun 13, 2011 9:12 AM PDT up reply actions
Feeling a "bit disappointed"
Is a long way off from calling this team the “death of football”
Editor/writer at Sounder at Heart, MLS editor SB Nation. Follow me on Twitter
by Jeremiah Oshan on Jun 13, 2011 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions
they play stifling tactics
they play slow and uninspired, the diamond is a stifling tactic. “The Death of Football” is a quote from Johann Cruyff, in context to the extinction of wingers in the dominant tactics of the 80’s. In the context of the lack of wing play from the Sounders, the quote was perferctly appropriate…
...that's MISTER Keller to you!!!
by malcontentjake on Jun 13, 2011 9:34 AM PDT up reply actions
Obviously...
Can’t believe that never dawned on me
Editor/writer at Sounder at Heart, MLS editor SB Nation. Follow me on Twitter
by Jeremiah Oshan on Jun 13, 2011 9:55 AM PDT up reply actions
The diamond is not inherently stifling.
Plenty of teams play flowing, open football without the use of wing play. The Sounders have done it on a few occasions this season.
by Aaron Campeau on Jun 13, 2011 11:14 AM PDT up reply actions
I can understand wishing to be above average, but honestly if we had gone through the preseason with the team we are able to field now, that’s about where I’d expect us to be. I mean take away our first 2 target forward options and our most dynamic offensive player not named Montero and I think we are mostly average. Capable of more on some days but certainly capable of less as well. I can feel disappointed with the season, but not with this team.
Boo! Tomorrow AM. I want all things now!
by Perrinbar on Jun 13, 2011 9:17 AM PDT up reply actions 2 recs
I think we are above average.
5th to 8th on most metrics in a league with 18 teams is above average. Not elite, though. It’s like the sidebar says: tier 2 is exactly where we should be, given our performance so far. Disappointing, considering the high hopes before the season started, but not the end of the world. We might be able to make the jump to tier 1 with some luck on the injury front and reinforcements in the transfer window, though the slow start will probably mean we’re still outof SS contention.
by Tohoya on Jun 13, 2011 12:37 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
less than 50%
I have to agree with this. We have 22 points out of possible 48, which is no great point total after 16 games. In many leagues, we would be mid-table team, probably closer to the bottom than top, but this is enough for MLS. I would be happy with 28, 29 points at this stage.
I would hope you'd be happy...
We’d have the second most points probably the second best PPM.
Editor/writer at Sounder at Heart, MLS editor SB Nation. Follow me on Twitter
by Jeremiah Oshan on Jun 13, 2011 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions
And mindsets like that
are exactly where the real problem lies in Seattle.
I don't think the sky is falling...
…but we need to beat teams like Vancouver and Chicago, period. Especially a team like Vancouver, at home.
I’m not calling for anyone’s head, but I’m disappointed that we can’t get results against some of the bottom teams in the league. If we can’t beat Vancouver at home, are we expected to really challenge for any silverware? Let’s be honest.
This is where I am
I’m concerned that our only wins were 1) the game after Steve got hurt and the team was super pumped and 2) two wins against 10 man sides.
I’m happy we got those wins, but neither is a signal that the team is capable of competing long term. I remember an article on this very sight talking about how the Sounders needed to make some hay now while we played the bad teams of the league. Second time this season where we’ve had a favorable schedule and failed to make much of it.
You're missing two wins in there...
Editor/writer at Sounder at Heart, MLS editor SB Nation. Follow me on Twitter
by Jeremiah Oshan on Jun 13, 2011 9:56 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Parity
The good teams in MLS aren’t that much better than the bad ones, and this is only intensified by soccer’s high individual match variance. Results like The ones at Rio Tinto and this week’s are going to happen. If you look at the body of work, the Sounders throughout the season have actually been pretty consistent at beating bad teams (Chicago, KC, Toronto), drawing decent ones (Houston, San Jose), and losing to elite ones (LA, NY)
by Tohoya on Jun 13, 2011 12:41 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
We also beat RSL in Sandy and Colorado in Denver
In MLS you just don’t win all of the games you’re ‘supposed to win’. I’m sorry, but you just don’t. You lose some of them and you win some of the games you weren’t ‘supposed to win’.
Nos Audietis
I'm still not convinced by Carrasco
The other 3 though, absolutely have shown their depth and worth. Especially Wahl.
Remember Carrasco is still a rookie
Playing at this level at his age & experience is promising. He’s only going to get better…
by ABTsportsline on Jun 13, 2011 9:44 AM PDT up reply actions
yeah. i think it will be interesting to see him start in alonso position
once he gets 5 yellows.
Scary
Is the word I would use. Not saying Carrasco is bad, but anytime I think about Ozzie being off the pitch it scares me.
yeah true but at least this year we have someone who can play that position.
i mean last year without alonso was really bad but maybe this year it wont be as bad.
No doubt
But the statement was:
The depth has purely displayed itself as players like Tyson Wahl, Lamar Neagle, Servando Carrasco and Mike Fucito have shown that they are capable of starting and competing in League play.
I am not convinced he’s ready. What’s a better solution? Don’t know. Clearly the team is using him because they are stretched thin, I get that. But injuries aside, I don’t think he’d even be a sub at this point.
by chrisperry1983 on Jun 13, 2011 11:43 AM PDT up reply actions
So what's up with Jaqua & Montero?
I know this seems like a dead horse, but they worked so well together in 2009. To be fair the only person missing from that cast in the final 3rd of the field would be Zakuani. When Evans, Montero, and Jaqua are on the field at the same time, I have to ask what is vastly different now from 2009?
From this amateur fan’s view I’d say its due to Montero being played in a more withdrawn role now than 2009, where he played more of a true forward. No?
Montero seems to want to drift back to a CAM-type role and be a creator, or trequartista (sp) – but if we have no one else able to capitalize on those chances, I think I’d rather have the guy that can best put stuff away be taking the chances. Hmmm…
I think there are two simplistic answers to my view (which is not an expert view at all)
Jaqua – he’s two years older (29) and coming off of a number of leg injuries. His skills – flick on passes, positioning, etc. – don’t seem to have changed much so I would believe that he is more limited physically than he has been in the past.
For Montero, I think the league has caught up to him a bit. Defenses know that if they can man-mark him with someone Montero can’t beat the defender with the ball at his feet and doesn’t create space for himself very well. I made this analogy in another thread, but I think he’s a bit like the great version of Ichiro from a couple years ago in that he can’t drive the offense by himself, but when there is other quality in the attack, he can make that quality better.
Does anyone else think Montero looks slow
I never thought the guy was a speed burner but his acceleration over 2,3,4 paces just looks like molasses lately.
And to get out ahead, please dont pin me in the “Montero is Lazy” camp because I’m not saying that at all.
Agreed
That’s why I think defenses have figured him out. And without a strong and/or fast Target Forward as well as fast wingers to stretch the defenders, Montero can’t get room to operate.
Yeah that's what I'm noticing
It’s almost like teams know if they let him collect the ball and turn they are going to have plenty of time to beat him to the ball after his initial touch.
Again, his top speed doesn’t seem to be bad, it’s that initial burst that’s missing.
re:
In 2009, they also had Ljungberg behind them, so the opposing defenders were paying much more attention to him than to Montero or Nate.
Ljungberg was on the right
Not central
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
Doh!
Of course, Ljungberg. Obviously a huge void there with him not in the starting lineup, but was Ljungberg really the genesis of the 21 goals between Jaqua & Montero? Also, Ljungberg didn’t even start with the team in 2009 until several matches in; by that time Montero already had what, 4-5 goals?
I think CMC’s point is probably pretty accurate – MLS teams have figured Montero out. Unless he has a real threat of a player drawing defenders off of him, he’s very ineffective it seems. All the skill in the world won’t help much if you have 2-3 defenders mauling you down every time you touch the ball.
by ABTsportsline on Jun 13, 2011 1:57 PM PDT up reply actions
Expectation vs Reality
I think the fan base as a whole is running into expectation problems. It’s not that we’re a bad team, it’s that we’re not as good as everyone anticipated. We’re a fairly good team today, but the problem is that we were a fairly good team in 2009.
Fans expect progress. What Dave has done a great job of pointing out is that based on the current circumstances (i.e. injuries, losing Nkufo) we can’t expect this team to meet our previously lofty expectations. When this team is full strength it does have the capability of competing for every prize, but luck plays into it as well. We’ve had bad luck, but our results have still held fairly strong. It will take less than 1.5 PPM to make the playoffs and we’re at 1.375…and only getting healthier. Assuming the cup is the main prize we’re after, we’re well on pace to compete.
We’re weathering the storm and, as past champions have shown, it’s not how you begin a season, but how you finish it.
by WesMagee on Jun 13, 2011 10:46 AM PDT reply actions 1 recs
Wahl will allow us to deal Gonzalez
I am sure there are a couple of teams that could use a LB of Leo’s quality… we should deal him.
He's a good defender
Why would we deal him? If Wahl goes down, who’s behind Leo?
by chrisperry1983 on Jun 13, 2011 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions
Oh snap!
Forgot about that. That would be cool.
by chrisperry1983 on Jun 13, 2011 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions
There was a rumor of Takahito Saito signing with Seattle
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
Not to pick
But do you mean Takahito Soma?
http://www.sounderatheart.com/2011/4/23/2129608/takahito-soma-leftback-seattle-sounders
Tetteh?
Given the injury problems, I’m still surprised we haven’t seen more of him
by Tohoya on Jun 13, 2011 12:45 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions
Exactly
"But who would listen to Little Old Me anyway?"
-by -Dave Clark
and -thehemogoblin
by Little old me on Jun 14, 2011 10:56 AM PDT up reply actions
But his future potential is exciting
I don’t think he’s better than Wahl at the current time, but boy does he look exciting in the reserve games I’ve seen. He’s deceptively quick and strong, and has good ball control especially in the attack. He needs to work on his defense, but I think he can be an elite LB in MLS after a couple of years.
I think we’ll see more of Tetteh once the Open Cup and CCL games start. Both Scott and Leo have been playing a lot of CB in the reserve games which I think is an indication of where they see them contributing in non-league games. That should open up more time for Tetteh at the LB spot.
Is the first point of play defense
PLAYING DEFENSE?
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
Leo's looked solid at centerback in Reserve games
at least I think so. That might be a good positional transition for him, given that his lack of pace and distribution don’t matter there.
That would make one of the CBs higher up the chart expendable. . like Ianni or Parke, who we could get more for than Leo.
Nos Audietis
Based on the Henderson quota from last week about other teams being interesting in the Sounders CB depth
I’m expecting one of Parke, Graham, or Ianni to get traded if the Sounders can get something they want in return.
I don't think that's necessarily the case.
If I’m remembering the conversation with Ezra right, he likes to have his back-line move around and be versatile.
Or it could be that both Ianni and Graham were hurt in one game
and then Graham was still hurt in the other and Ianni started
I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart
Doubt anyone's seriously interested in Graham
Unless they are hurting for a CB and don’t have any cap space. I doubt we lose Parke. If people are needing a starter quality CB, I’m guessing it’s Ianni that gets interest that the FO would part with.
by chrisperry1983 on Jun 14, 2011 1:36 PM PDT up reply actions
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