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Around SBN: Win or Lose, Boston Celtics' New Big 3 Era A Success

US Open Cup Pickem Standings After Round 3

The third round of US Open Cup play marked the entrance of the MLS clubs into the competition and brought with it the first upset of the tournament (or the second, depending on what you think of the NPSL). The general lack of upsets meant two things. One, players who paid attention to the bracket and picked the favorite out of each geographical group racked up a lot of early points. But two, players who avoided MLS clubs are just about done picking up points (unless they picked the Richmond Kickers, the only lower-division team remaining). That means bmvaughn still tops the charts but is suddenly down to one team (those Kickers) left.

There's a pack of players 4 points back but who have an MLS club remaining each, including Dizzo with the Seattle Sounders and TGos with the LA Galaxy, who face each other in the next round — meaning one of them will cut the lead in half if Richmond can't continue the run. Jeremiah is also in that pack and has Real Salt Lake remaining. Further down the table lefthand is carrying two MLS teams in the Sounders and Sporting KC, who are on opposite sides of the bracket and therefore could potentially meet in the final. That would add up to 10 more points and likely a runaway win in the contest.

Even now there are only 4 players who've lost all of their teams, so most people should have a rooting interest in the Quarterfinals in two weeks (other than the Sounders, of course).

Full standings are after the jump

Star-divide

PlayerPointsTeams Left
bmvaughn151
yuniform131
Dizzo112
Oshan112
TGos111
AVUrlacher111
Little old me110
agtk102
lefthand102
Dylema101
quacker101
wannascribble90
Cornchops90
Jelky82
Daniel Casey81
element115181
Timm81
Colin Johnson81
Jeff "Minnows" Kusowski80
asteroidblues72
Sam in P-Town72
Dave C71
Reo Tsuchiya71
Garrincha71
ryan healy71
Colin MacLeod61
Orothar61
Shooter61
Sidereal51
swingman51
Squared2351
JWAY42
Kalani31

Comment 20 comments  |  0 recs  | 

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I forgot who my 2nd team is, but I'm feeling good coming from behind!

Unofficial Sounder Fan Club President - South Dakota Division

by JWAY on Jun 29, 2011 1:56 PM PDT reply actions  

Red Bulls

if they win it all you could make a big jump in the standings

Nos Audietis

by sidereal on Jun 29, 2011 1:58 PM PDT up reply actions  

Hey oh!

Unofficial Sounder Fan Club President - South Dakota Division

by JWAY on Jun 29, 2011 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

"Only 4 players who've lost all their teams"

Ouch. It was still fun. I’m interested to see how fast the standings shift in these final three rounds. Having the winner will be important, or at least finalists, since few had two MLS teams.

by Cornchops on Jun 29, 2011 3:13 PM PDT via mobile reply actions  

Picking the Sounders may have been a mistake

But I would do it again. Just like I play Fucito in my Fantasy League.

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Jun 29, 2011 4:29 PM PDT reply actions  

Fun

I’ve really enjoyed being able to say “I’m doing well in my Open Cup Pickem”, half because I’m doing well and half because it’s awesome that we have an open cup pickem going. I’m tempted to code up a proper web site for it next year.

by lefthand on Jun 29, 2011 9:04 PM PDT up reply actions  

Yeah,

I’ve got 10 points, with the Sounders still in it, but since everyone else took the Sounders too I think I might not have much of a shot anymore.

by quacker27 on Jun 30, 2011 7:09 AM PDT up reply actions  

Okay so I was bored...

I ran the 128 permutations of results for each of the 33 teams and here’s what I found:

  • 33 of the 128 permutations result in a tie
  • 4 of the 128 permutations would result in a 3-way tie (all cases where LAG win it all)
  • Mathematically, only 7 teams can win it (bmvaughn, Dizzo, Oshan, TGos, lefthand, Jelky, Sam in P-Town)
  • Assuming each team has a 50-50 chance of winning each matchup (BIG assumption), then the following probabilities of winning it all (doesn’t add to 100% due to ties):
    bmvaughn 47%
    Oshan 23%
    lefthand 23%
    Dizzo 13%
    TGos 12%
    Sam in P-Town 8%
    Jelky 6%

by bmvaughn on Jun 29, 2011 11:53 PM PDT reply actions   1 recs

Oh and...

Sam and Jelky both have only 2 permutations each where they win outright… would make for a dear upset!

by bmvaughn on Jun 30, 2011 12:04 AM PDT up reply actions  

Stupid LA Blues.

I’d still have been in it if they held on to win.

by quacker27 on Jun 30, 2011 7:10 AM PDT up reply actions  

Had a feeling I was eliminated.

Hopefully the Kickers & Sounders can power me to a top 3 finish.

by agtk on Jun 30, 2011 2:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

When you say only those 7 can win

does that mean outright, or does that include ties?

Nos Audietis

by sidereal on Jun 30, 2011 3:20 PM PDT up reply actions  

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