Seattle Sounders At Break: Standings and Expected Standings

by Dave Clark on Jul 17, 2011 6:14 PM PDT in Sounders: MLS Regular Season

These are really high times in Seattle Sounders land. The giddiness over the 11 match all competitions unbeaten streak is hard to contain. While the defense has been a little rough, it isn't awful and the offense is just playing amazing right now. Since game four Seattle has been earning two points a game. As I said, plain giddy. So what is the future for this team that as of this moment is still just a wild card team? Can we surmise a way to look at performance and estimate the expected finish?

Why yes we can.

In fact there are more ways than just that. Sidereal obviously has his methods. There's a soccer version of pythag that is a little more complex than I like, and even one that I'm developing involving Shots For/Against and Save Percentage. We'll get to that one later in the week as it requires a lot more data. But the thing is at this point in the season we start to get a look at how the table is now, as well as how it should be.

Those of us that follow teams in the Western Conference won't be surprised that the top four are still from the West with just a tiny shift as Seattle is expected to edge FC Dallas while Real Salt Lake and the Los Angeles Galaxy compete for the Supporters Shield. The Eastern Conference should see the same three teams at the top as typical with the Philadelphia Union possibly challenging, though two matches are responsible for nearly all of their Goal Differential. There are only tiny difference between New York Red Bulls and the Columbus Crew. Most intriguingly is that the battle for the final three wild card slot will be intense. There are six teams between 41 and 43 expected points and even the Portland Timbers sit within two wins of 43 at 37 expected points. And Oh, Canada, your two teams are battling for last.

Club	PPM	PTS	GFp	GAp	GD	x34	xFinish
Los Angeles Galaxy	1.86	39	1.29	0.76	11	57	61
Real Salt Lake	1.76	30	1.35	0.71	11	59	60
Seattle Sounders FC	1.73	38	1.45	1.05	9	54	57
FC Dallas	1.75	35	1.30	0.95	7	53	57
Philadelphia Union	1.63	31	1.26	0.84	8	54	55
New York Red Bulls	1.38	29	1.62	1.14	10	56	50
Columbus Crew	1.47	28	1.11	1.00	2	47	49
Colorado Rapids	1.29	27	1.19	1.29	-2	43	43
San Jose Earthquakes	1.21	23	1.16	1.11	1	46	43
Houston Dynamo	1.20	24	1.20	1.15	1	46	43
Sporting Kansas City	1.21	23	1.26	1.32	-1	44	42
Chivas USA	1.15	23	1.20	1.15	1	46	42
DC United	1.28	23	1.33	1.61	-5	39	41
Portland Timbers	1.17	21	1.22	1.72	-9	34	37
Chicago Fire	0.90	18	1.00	1.25	-5	39	34
New England Revolution	0.84	16	0.84	1.37	-10	33	31
Vancouver Whitecaps FC	0.70	14	0.95	1.40	-9	35	28
Toronto FC	0.86	18	0.81	1.71	-19	25	28

Here's a legend. Teams in Blue are the teams that are currently top 3 in West by PPM. Teams in Red are the top 3 in East by PPM. The teams in Purple are the 4 Wild Cards by PPM. In each case goal differential was used as next tie-breaker since head-to-head can't be done.

x34 applies Graham's formula over a pure 34 match league season.
xFinish applies the formula only for remaining games and includes points already won.

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Comments

Can you solidify the colors a tad?

They are a bit hard to see on the white background.

Now with more lemon bars!

by Fear on Jul 17, 2011 6:52 PM PDT reply actions

That should be better

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Jul 17, 2011 6:58 PM PDT up reply actions

Much, thank you

Now with more lemon bars!

by Fear on Jul 17, 2011 7:39 PM PDT up reply actions

and once again the MLS's clueless decision to go with conference-based playoffs is going to bite a Western team in the ass

dumb dumb dumb

what i would give for a single table this year…

...and you will hear us scream

by malcontentjake on Jul 17, 2011 7:36 PM PDT reply actions

The point of a single table that would exist for a single year is...?

Also, why will the Conference based playoffs hurt Seattle?

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Jul 17, 2011 7:42 PM PDT up reply actions

I think what he means is based on current PPM

Seattle could finish 4th in the west. With the playoff setup in place, Seattle will have to go through the play-in round. That would mean Seattle would have to play an extra two games while the other clubs would get to rest.
If it was one table, Seattle would be the 4th seed and be given a bye into the Conference Semifinals.

by sdcoug09 on Jul 17, 2011 8:15 PM PDT up reply actions

but they'd also be in the tougher western conference

Editor/writer at Sounder at Heart, MLS editor SB Nation. Follow me on Twitter. You'll Never Yacht Alone.

by Jeremiah Oshan on Jul 17, 2011 8:22 PM PDT up reply actions

what?

if it was one table there wouldn’t be conferences

...and you will hear us scream

by malcontentjake on Jul 17, 2011 10:55 PM PDT up reply actions

i was responding to this comment...

not the idea of a single table.

Editor/writer at Sounder at Heart, MLS editor SB Nation. Follow me on Twitter. You'll Never Yacht Alone.

by Jeremiah Oshan on Jul 18, 2011 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions

Play-in Round is expected to be a single game

mid-week

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Jul 17, 2011 8:44 PM PDT up reply actions

what I mean is

I depsise the playoff format with a hate that burns to the center of my soul

...and you will hear us scream

by malcontentjake on Jul 17, 2011 10:54 PM PDT up reply actions

a little thing called a level playing field

it damages the compteitive credibility of any league to reward or punish teams based upon nothing more than geography

...and you will hear us scream

by malcontentjake on Jul 17, 2011 10:52 PM PDT up reply actions

We get it

by B-Lot tailgater on Jul 18, 2011 12:32 PM PDT up reply actions

Yeah, the west is so strong that we might be better off getting the WC.

The worst WC team who advances past the WC round gets paired against the SS winner. We would almost ertainly be the highest ranked WC team if we did get a WC spot, practically guaranteeing getting seeded into the east if we win our play-in game. It means one more game, but, say, San Jose-Philadelphia-Columbus-LA looks a whole lot easier than LA-Dallas-Philadelphia to me.

…the bigger problem is that, like last year, Seattle may well have an incentive to lose towards the end of the season. Our unwillingness to toss away 2 goals leads to bitter rivals in stoppage time, as the Rapids did last year, led directly to our first-round matchup against LA. I was rooting for the Sounders to lose towards the end of last season, and I hope I’m not doing the same this season.

by Tohoya on Jul 17, 2011 9:09 PM PDT reply actions

I wanted Galaxy last year

I believe it is better to play them home and away than just playing one game on their stadium because they were higher seat. There is no real advantage in the first round for higher seat except that the second game is at home and you know the result that will get you through.

by seattle 13 on Jul 17, 2011 9:26 PM PDT up reply actions

BTW, this strikes more to the heart of why I hate the playoffs

this isn’t a Seattle-centric stance I have… I just think its absurd to set up a system that encourages a lower finish to improve playoff chances.

but this is only ONE reason. there are many others, and I have expressed many of them on this site over the months…

...and you will hear us scream

by malcontentjake on Jul 17, 2011 11:01 PM PDT up reply actions

I hate when I get on after travelling to a different continent and see there are new comments, check the new comments, go, "I should rec that,"

and realize that I already did.

You do all the work for us, Honey Badger, and we'll just eat whatever you find.

by mistuhp on Jul 19, 2011 8:59 PM PDT up reply actions

Why the disparity?

I don’t recall seeing a discussion here or elsewhere on the subject of the disparity between the East and the West. Statistically explainable ebb and flow, or something more fundamental?

by asimismo on Jul 18, 2011 3:20 PM PDT reply actions