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Don Garber Says MLS To Become Top League

Attendance: Past, Present, Future

At three different points of the year MLS Commissioner Don Garber makes the big time media rounds and talks about the future of Major League Soccer. Tonight's All-Star Game is one of those times. MLS is getting really good, despite all the times they are the brunt of jokes, at getting exposure. This week they've done the traditional morning shows, as well as hosted a series of events throughout Manhattan.

One of the most frequent questions Garber gets is about the growth of MLS. From non-soccer media the question is when will MLS be big in North America? While from soccer media it is a question about when the League will be big compared to the rest of the world. The Newark Star-Ledger got this answer from him;

"When we were going through the bidding process, we said, ‘What do we really want to achieve if we get the (2022) World Cup?’ " the MLS commissioner told The Star-Ledger. "One of the first things that came out of that plan was we want Major League Soccer to become one of the top leagues in the world by 2022. That’s still our goal.

"We believe that over the next 10 years, if we continue to be smart, focused and innovative, that our league can compete with the other leagues around the world 10 years from now. It’s not next year but, ultimately, if we keep focused and continue to manage our strategy properly, we should be able to stand toe-to-toe against anybody. America does not want to be second-best."

This isn't your dad's MLS 1.0 anymore, with its falling attendance through it's first five seasons, odd rules and cavernous stadiums. This isn't even MLS 2.0 where those things were corrected (stable attendance at about 15,000). This is a different beast, and while David Beckham and Toronto FC may have ushered it in, it is about more than just they.

Star-divide

MLS 3.0 is about having up to 3 Designated Players per squad. Not just guys like Thierry Henry and Beckham, but young stars who will use the league as a stepping stone to global fame, at least that's the goal for some. But that isn't the only thing that makes this current era of MLS exciting.

There's Cascadia, as well as other cities where their soccer stadiums aren't tiny plots with just bleachers for seating (sorry Columbus, and thank you for starting the SSS wave). In fact within the next year 3 more stadiums will open in San Jose, Houston and Montreal.

The Academies and Home Grown Players, though in their infancy really are already producing talent with more than 40 players who have trained with professional coaches already signing into MLS. Players like Juan Agudelo, Chris Cortez, and Keven Aleman are a symbol of what these programs can mean.

Sure, Garber is puffing things up a bit, but the trend looks good during his reign. Expansion has helped, but no longer does MLS pay a television network to be on the air, instead having several multimillion dollar per year contracts in the USA and Canada. He's also right when he says the change won't happen overnight.

But we do know it is changing, and for the better. No longer are there painted concrete floors with early AstroTurf. Only five years ago was the first every full-time professional referee added to America. The TV coverage talks less and less about atmosphere, replacing that with chatter about the game being played - you know, like other major sports.

The new financial rules should help keep talent rather than losing players like Stuart Holden for nothing, Freddy Adu for a mere 2 Million and Jozy Altidore for 10 Million. With rosters built from the base through Academies, supplemented through the draft and discovery claims and then polished off with a few Designated Players this league looks nothing like it did when it launched.

The trend in MLS is good.

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T'would be sweet

But, omg, I’ll be 70 then. Oh well…. there’ll still be a club section to migrate to…..

by swansuite on Jul 27, 2011 2:24 PM PDT reply actions  

How close is the salary cap...

…to most teams’ effective caps? Could we bump it by half a million without giving bigger market teams an unseemly advantage?

by mrbs on Jul 27, 2011 2:24 PM PDT reply actions  

Since the portion of salary that applies to the Cap is paid by the league

player payroll isn’t a team by team issue, except for DPs.

HGPs don’t make enough money to be an issue.

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Jul 27, 2011 2:28 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think the tipping point was reached

when MLS finally started the academies and is now tapping into the vast youth soccer system of this country. I had this same conversation with Lamar Neagle at the beginning of the year and he lamented how there was no Sounders Academy when he grew up here, and what a difference that would have made in his career. Once MLS can help keep more of our 20M+ youth staying in soccer in the US and getting well trained, watch out.

by Brougham Hooligan on Jul 27, 2011 2:36 PM PDT reply actions  

I fully agree

We are a long way from some of the European academies, as teams like Barca have academies with hundreds of kids, but I believe the Sounders will boast a world-class academy one day, producing American-Cascadian world-class players.

by agtk on Jul 27, 2011 3:52 PM PDT up reply actions  

Please

This is not because of Seattle. We are a part of it, but hardly the sole reason for it.

I miss *REAL* Four Loko

by B-Lot tailgater on Jul 27, 2011 2:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ten years is wildly optimistic

Will teams in MLS be paying all their players at least six figures in 10 years? Highly unlikely. Yet teams in the top leagues do that routinely and therefore top players in their prime will continue to go to those leagues.

The gap will shrink, but it’ll still be significant.

by CarlosT on Jul 27, 2011 3:21 PM PDT reply actions   2 recs

Agreed.

I love the optimism by Don but as much as I want to believe him, the owners locked in another 5-year CBA in which they’re paying players next to nothing when compared with the global market. The only reason Garber might end up being right is if the finances of the top European leagues tumble, salary caps are put into place and a slew of the fringe players have to take their services elsewhere.

But you’re right, it’s still not even close and hearing him say this is a bit baffling.

Will MLS have the best presentation, best online strategy, best broadcast quality, best website, etc.? Sure, maybe. But until the league starts to invest in the product (outside of the academy system), they’ve light years to go.

by Samuelson on Jul 27, 2011 4:16 PM PDT up reply actions  

The league has to invest in the product within its means

Buying better players isn’t going to guarantee much greater revenues. I think the academy is really where it’s at, though. That’s where you can invest a few million and get a few hundred back in transfer fees. (Looking at the system as a whole.) That’s the kind of revenue growth that allows you to re-invest in the team without having to increase ticket prices much. Also, with foreign player limits on the roster, there’s only so much you can do to make the league better without increasing the quality of domestic players.

by ubelmann on Jul 27, 2011 6:10 PM PDT up reply actions  

As long as MLS can stay in the black.

I would rather us allow natural growth in the US/CA and not upgrade.

So we’re not the most beautiful league right now. If somehow the caps are changed in a way where large markets can put their money into “investing” in marquee players I will be the first consumer of MLS to jump ship. Personally, I am glad to see what each team can do with their cap and enjoy the artificial parity. Though I am not an expert of how personnel rules work (at least at the crazy deep level) in professional sport leagues I would rather pay less for tickets, follow academy players, and understand the “paying public” in Europe may cherry pick our prospects at times. As long as they have a positive experience with our support we should 1) realize it’s going to happen (To everyone but Mr. Badger) 2) look forward to who’s next (Mr. Badger will play for us until his legs fall off… no exceptions)…

by mdkathon on Jul 27, 2011 8:59 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think you need both...

Invest in both the academy systems and up the salary cap. Upping the cap not only means more ‘marquee’ players (as you put them), but it also means increased player retention (which also means a more stable core ala the Revs in the early-mid aughts) and the ability to pay for a higher tier of young prospect out of South America. All of this would make the system better and positively influence the development of academy/homegrown players.

I wish MLS could just invest at the grassroots/academy levels and watch their product markedly improve over time, but it’s going to take a multifaceted approach to make MLS that much better. If Garber thinks he can set the cap at 3-5M dollars and meet his 10y target, he should think again.

by Samuelson on Jul 27, 2011 10:30 PM PDT up reply actions  

Upping the cap is a good idea as long as it is within the league's means and balanced with academy investment

There’s no denying there are benefits to higher payrolls, but there are big drawbacks if the league tries to live beyond its means. Per game attendance in the league has only gone up about 10% in the last 10 years. Yes, there is a broader base of fans now with more teams in the league, but there are also more players to pay now. I don’t know what revenue increase has been, but MLS was probably still losing money 10 years ago, so it’s hard to say how much profits have increased (if at all.) Higher television ratings could help an awful lot, but that might be off a ways. I think Garber is mainly talking a big game because it’s a sound bite that’s likely to be received well.

by ubelmann on Jul 27, 2011 11:02 PM PDT up reply actions  

Good point.

I don’t know enough of how the league has done in the last 15 years to understand player retention. So yeah, I would love for us to be able to keep players. Though I don’t feel the need once they want high-six or seven figure. It’s time for them to move on then.

Sports. Right?

by mdkathon on Jul 28, 2011 12:24 AM PDT up reply actions  

I don't think they'll ever sell out like that...

But I’m hoping they eventually start selling out playoff matches and 1-2 marquee games per year. This year’s ManU pack strategy made a lot of sense—I’m curious how many will be at the San Jose match now that the ManU game is behind us.

by Samuelson on Jul 27, 2011 4:18 PM PDT up reply actions  

I think that since its Keller's last game,

and they’re doing some sort of Keller giveaway, it should be pretty full.

by hindsight on Jul 27, 2011 4:24 PM PDT up reply actions  

I don't see it in 2022...

…but there’s no reason it couldn’t happen eventually. Seattle-Tacoma’s roughly the population of Manchester, for instance, and they averaged 120K/game for ManUtd/ManCity combined.

by ubelmann on Jul 27, 2011 8:14 PM PDT up reply actions  

The original goal was 22,500 or so

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Jul 27, 2011 8:49 PM PDT up reply actions  

I'll be the first to shake your hand and buy you an ice cream cone.

I’d love to see it but I think there will end up being a baseline attendance that varies depending on performance. Right now the team has settled on a baseline of around 36k tickets sold (with around 33-35k in attendance each week, more or less). They’re getting better on packages and promotions and if the team wins a cup or two we might see that jump to 40-45k, but it would take a really long time and a lot of league-wide investment in the product for it to jump to 67k week in and week out.

I think shooting for a full house in the playoffs and over 1-3 event games per year is a good near-term goal. Then the FO can go from there.

by Samuelson on Jul 27, 2011 10:22 PM PDT up reply actions  

Fair enough

But I don’t think that an extra 80 percent over ten years is that farfetched. Certainly not a given, but they were literally forced to open up more of the stadium in the first two years, and indicators seem to point to the Hawks Nest finally opening up next year when the contract on the advertising ends. Again, not a given, but there’s been a huge push for that. An open Hawks Nest bumps attendance over 40k. 40k with 9 years to grow the brand even more. I could see them having 40k season ticket holders by then.

This is all assuming that they don’t bump up ticket prices again like they did this year. They do, and all bets are off the table.

by Agent_J on Jul 27, 2011 10:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

Ticket prices will continue to go up each year...

Garber: “We’re working hard to grow our television ratings. Our revenues are growing and they’re growing at a pretty good clip, but I’d like to see them grown faster. Whether that’s moving up our average ticket prices or getting better with our season ticket sales or growing the amount of money we get from sponsors — though, overall we feel pretty good commercially.”

And 80 percent over 10 years is a LOT. Again, hope you’re wrong…

by Samuelson on Jul 28, 2011 6:30 AM PDT up reply actions  

Inflatable capacity means that revenues can increas by opening seating

rather than raising costs.

Each new person at the game doesn’t just mean more ticket revenue, but more gameday concessions, merchendise and greater connection to the team long term.

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Jul 28, 2011 7:54 AM PDT up reply actions  

That would be nice

But prices have gone up each year for season ticket holders, and Garber couldn’t be more clear about his intentions to drive revenue by increasing ticket prices marginally over time.

You’re just talking about a hypothetical. Sounds nice though, and would be even nicer to hear directly from the FO.

by Samuelson on Jul 28, 2011 8:30 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions  

Increasing ticket prices would be a lot more palatable with an increasing salary cap

As long as they allow teams to sign better (more $$) players, incremental rises in ticket prices wouldn’t be so bad.

Raising prices just because it’s another calendar year rubs me the wrong way though. (*cough*NFL*cough*)

SSFC | What I do for fun: Sometimes-Interesting

by ABTsportsline on Jul 28, 2011 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

Yeah...

It’s hard to talk in real terms when we know little about how much MLS takes in with SUM . Consider that during the CBA negotiations, Garber claimed that only 3 or so teams were in the black, and then a year later in the Fortune article he was rather boastful about the profitability of the league. I get the sense that when everything is taken into consideration, the league is healthy and is a good deal for its owner/operators (Indeed—that’s why owners are becoming more willing to invest in stadia, etc.).

Outside of the DP rules, however, I still see a lot of hesitancy by MLS to up that cap. I mean, I think eventually we’ll see the cap go up, but that’s just a guess. Presently I see MLS as an average soccer product wrapped in expensive, glossy packaging, and I worry that the league thinks the consumer won’t be able to tell. That’s why I don’t get too concerned when I see ManU crush the all-stars—it almost serves as a reminder to the league that, yes, eventually some of these training wheels will need to come off.

by Samuelson on Jul 28, 2011 10:45 AM PDT up reply actions   1 recs

you DID say "ever"

I think that in my lifetime (I’m 23, 24 on Friday), we will see Sounders games attended as well as or better than Seahawks games. Give the Sounders 35 years in the top domestic league, and I guarantee that we’ll have 40-50k season ticket holders and plenty of single game buyers to fill the stadium.

by agtk on Jul 27, 2011 10:51 PM PDT up reply actions  

Lets not forget

Columbus used to draw in 30k+ crowds also.

I miss *REAL* Four Loko

by B-Lot tailgater on Jul 28, 2011 9:03 AM PDT up reply actions  

Um, maybe you're thinking of another team?

Highest average for the Crew was 18,950 in 1996. While they might have had some big crowds in Ohio Stadium, it wasn’t common.

Not disagreeing with your implication that Sounders attendance will drop if they have some bad years at some point.

You will hear us on Brougham, you will hear us on Occidental, you will hear us on King. We are all around you, there is no escape.

by 108Ultra on Jul 28, 2011 10:21 AM PDT up reply actions  

That is a pretty high average by MLS standards

People are gushing over 18k in PDX and 20k in Toronto, Vancouver, and LA.

I miss *REAL* Four Loko

by B-Lot tailgater on Jul 28, 2011 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions  

but just to put it in perspective

Even if you take their peak attendance and look at where it is now … a similar 15-year negative arch would still leave the Sounders drawing in 20k range.

Editor/writer at Sounder at Heart, MLS editor SB Nation. Follow me on Twitter. You'll Never Yacht Alone.

by Jeremiah Oshan on Jul 28, 2011 10:23 AM PDT up reply actions  

Good point

Not saying we are going to see some rapid drop off in attendance, but it could happen, as it has happened elsewhere.

One thing Seattle has going for it that Columbus does not: We aren’t dealing with whacky MLS 1.0 rules etc to turn off soccer fans.

I miss *REAL* Four Loko

by B-Lot tailgater on Jul 28, 2011 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions  

Their stadium probably doesn't help

Once the SSS class of the MLS, it is now one of the most out-dated stadiums out there. Still have metal bleachers, no?

Nicer facilities go a long way toward attracting more of a fan base.

SSFC | What I do for fun: Sometimes-Interesting

by ABTsportsline on Jul 28, 2011 1:50 PM PDT up reply actions  

San Jose attendance

I’ll be happy with 50k on October 15th. We should have more than NYRB because it’s a Saturday night. I don’t expect anything close to the 67k for ManU.

Maybe 51,818 to celebrate Kasey’s number?

Fan of: Cardinals, Blues, Sounders, Yellow Jackets, Wolverines, Rams, and Blazers.

by ColinMacLeod on Jul 28, 2011 10:28 AM PDT up reply actions  

going to take a lot of coordination :)

Editor/writer at Sounder at Heart, MLS editor SB Nation. Follow me on Twitter. You'll Never Yacht Alone.

by Jeremiah Oshan on Jul 28, 2011 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions  

Attendance

I don’t think that attendance is barely growing except through expansion, very slightly. The Don has done a good job of expanding, so it is not a terrible thing.

I don’t really care about attendance growth that much, my tickets are affordable and I can watch very good soccer. It is unlike NASL days, praying the league would make it, where you read the paper every day hoping that Tulsa wasn’t lying about the 10k, but knowing they probably were. Plus there were no TV revenues back then.

I think the quality, even if MLS stays were it is right now, goes way up. The sheer volume of every draft class has been huge in numbers of very good players over the last few years.

Go ahead and look around the league, there are Zakuani’s on every team.
Bunbury, Ream, Mwanga ( I could go on for a long time ) all took starting spots, meaning they were better than the player in those spots before.
So, unless there is some mass exodus which we have never seen before, there will be many many more “better quality” playes in 3 years.

by Charles J on Jul 28, 2011 7:55 AM PDT reply actions  

First line

Man, I should hit preview I guess.
I meant to say, attendance really isn’t going up much, away from exapansion.

by Charles J on Jul 28, 2011 7:58 AM PDT up reply actions  

Ticket affordability is a big issue for me

I think myself and many others are priced out of the expensive tickets for other sports. The NFL is the best example of this. I don’t think we would have as strong supporter group support with NFL level ticket prices.

I think there’s a reason that the most hard-care supporters of MLS are all younger. It’s because they can afford the tickets on a regular basis. I’d like to raise the popularity of the league, particularly for televised games, but not if it comes at the cost of dramatically higher ticket prices.

However, I think the league could probably double the current cap and still keep ticket prices affordable if we could get all the other teams to raise their attendance and fill the new SS Stadiums on a regular basis. A challenging proposition, but one that can be achieved with steady, organic growth. Better TV coverage could also make a big difference.

by Dizzo on Jul 28, 2011 9:30 AM PDT reply actions   2 recs

I just hope they don't go the way of the NFL

and start increasing prices every year just because it’s another year. Hopefully if prices in the MLS increase it’s because the teams are allowed to spend more money on players.

SSFC | What I do for fun: Sometimes-Interesting

by ABTsportsline on Jul 28, 2011 10:00 AM PDT up reply actions  

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