August Looks To Be Month Of Frustration For Seattle Sounders Fans

by Dave Clark on Aug 1, 2011 8:59 AM PDT in Sounders: MLS Regular Season

In August the Seattle Sounders are firmly entrenched in three tournaments, and none will be easy. The schedule isn't just rough. It is downright brutal. Within League play the opportunity for points will be rare. While in the CONCACAF Champions League there will either be one more match (against San Fransisco FC of Panama on Wednesday night, tickets still available) or after that knockout match the Group Stage will start and Seattle will have to face Monterrey again. The month ends with one of the few MLS sides clearly better than the Sounders in the US Open Cup Semi-Final at Starfire, as FC Dallas attempts to stop Seattle strong history in this tournament.

Team	Location	PPM	locPPM	Last 5	Sagarin	aGF	aGA
Sporks	Away	1.29	-0.87	7	-0.04	0.15	-0.10
Chivas	Home	1.18	0.91	8	0.33	0.00	0.14
Toros	Away	1.83	-0.66	8	-0.49	0.07	-0.32
Crew	Home	1.55	0.82	10	0.36	-0.14	-0.32

Green is good for Seattle. Red is bad.

Sporting Kansas City in their new home is a good team. Seattle's away ppm minus the SporKs home record (locPPM) shows how favored the blue should be. Now the Sagarin system says that the Sounders aren't huge underdogs, but it may be hiding the home/away split a little too heavily. With the defense currently struggling a bit facing a team that puts up more goals than average could emphasize the issues, particularly when facing a 4-3-3.

The easiest game of the month is the fringe playoff caliber squad down of Chivas USA. The good news is that they come here. In the quest for the playoffs every opportunity for points must be grabbed. With just an average offense, and slightly below average defense Seattle should be able to grab this chance. The best news will be that Seattle only plays one match that week.

If Seattle advances to the Group Stage of the CCL they will play Comunicaciones midweek in Seattle and then travel back to Texas to face the Toros of Dallas. Not only are the Sounders winless in Texas in their young MLS life, Dallas is a great team with decent offense and great defense. A win in the heat of Frisco is unlikely. Even a draw would be fortunate.

Ideally Seattle would then travel to Mexico to face Monterrey again in the perennial MLS quest for a win there. Yes, there was a positive first 70 minutes last season, but then those worst few (non-injury) minutes for the MLS Seattle Sounders and 3 goals in about 6 minutes. The road trip to the heat of Dallas and Monterrey in August ends with Seattle facing the Columbus Crew at the CLink. The signs looking at that Crew match are contradictory. Some point to victory (bad offense, bad road record), and others point to a struggle (great defense, hot streak that likely ends) so this final match in League play for August has draw written all over it.

The month ends with the potential to make the US Open Cup Final again. All it will take is the ability to beat a team that Seattle will have already faced once in the month. They will take on FCD on short rest, but in the friendly confines of Starfire. For all of the likely frustrations in MLS play for August it is just as likely that the month ends with the historic moment of advancing to the Final in a third straight year. But the month on a whole will be fairly rough, for League play, the emphasis of any team, will be brutal with rare positive results. The way you feel about the club will probably be determined by the Champions League, because the USOC and MLS play should be a split.

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What happened to the guys during the Man U game?

I know it’s not popular opinion around here, but clearly the guys haven’t been as sharp as they were prior to the friendly. The defensive issues were already there, sure, but we also had the scoring to go along with that. I don’t think anyone could make a reasonable case that the Man U game had no effect on the guys – the losses and the lack of scoring since supports it.

Switching gears a bit – anyone know what’s up with the defense? Is Ianni that bad? Has Parke lost a step? Is it their chemistry? A few months ago we were bragging how we had 3 CBs that could start on any team, and there was talk that we might trade one of our CBs away. Now we’re letting in ~3+ goals a match (league play). What changed with the defensive strategy?

SSFC | What I do for fun: Sometimes-Interesting

by ABTsportsline on Aug 1, 2011 9:33 AM PDT reply actions

I'm struggling to see how either of these subjects relates to the August schedule

BTW- in July the Sounders defense was in fact poor. They gave up 1.8 Goals per Game, but in none did they give up more than three goals.

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Aug 1, 2011 9:42 AM PDT up reply actions

I'm guessing he's asking obtusely if the Man U game "broke" us somewhat mentally?

by joesz on Aug 1, 2011 9:47 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

The question I have for everyone that thinks the United game had any major effect on the team's form is this;

Did you you expect that streak to go on forever? Did you expect the Sounders to keep winning games despite some pretty major defensive struggles and getting major offensive contributions from Roger Levesque? This team struggled on the road in CCL play last year, and they didn’t look all that terrible against San Francisco. They were bad against Houston, but it’s not like the Dynamo are God-awful, they were playing on short rest after a long flight and the heat index at the start of the game was over 105 degrees. Am I happy with either of those outcomes? No, not at all. But there are more plausible explanations for their poor performance (in two games, mind) than “Man United broke them.”

As for the defense, I don’t think it’s a Parke-Ianni problem (though I will be happy to see Hurtado back.) I think it’s an issue of Wahl playing for his offensive contributions and Riley being not very good and declining.

by Aaron Campeau on Aug 1, 2011 9:57 AM PDT up reply actions 7 recs

A mobile rec for you, sir.

by wyte_lightning on Aug 1, 2011 10:01 AM PDT via mobile up reply actions

If we come out shooting against KC

and put up some goals, I’ll gladly shut the hell up about the Man U game. Seriously. In the meantime the team isn’t proving me wrong.

I just want to see the offensive form we had prior, that’s all.

SSFC | What I do for fun: Sometimes-Interesting

by ABTsportsline on Aug 1, 2011 10:04 AM PDT up reply actions

There's no way to know for sure, of course.

It’s completely a matter of opinion, and the reality is that I will never believe it had a major effect and clearly a lot of people believed that it would even before the SF game.

by Aaron Campeau on Aug 1, 2011 10:05 AM PDT up reply actions

I know I'm in the complete minority on that issue

And possibly the only one. In light of that, I’ll just leave it alone. I know you guys are tired of hearing about it

SSFC | What I do for fun: Sometimes-Interesting

by ABTsportsline on Aug 1, 2011 10:12 AM PDT up reply actions

I blame the humidity in Panama and Houston more than the Manchester "friendly"

But I think the offensive form “looks” a lot different if a few posts don’t get in the way of either our last two performances.

As illogical as it may seem to some, I also feel the “team mojo” was a little disrupted so you aren’t the only one. But, I mostly think a larger contribution of factors is to blame then the “we got our ass kicked” solution.

Nos audietis in somniis, Nos audietis in altum: You will hear us!

by chrisso on Aug 1, 2011 12:10 PM PDT up reply actions

I was as embarrassed by the ManU blowout as anyone...

…but keep in mind that the problems we’ve been seeing over the past couple of games have come from the starters in the ManU game — in other words, those who managed to hold what is probably the best or second-best team in the world to 1:0 at halftime.

Sure, the second half was painful for us fans, but practically none of those players have had a significant role in Panama or Houston. And I really fail to see how, say, Montero, Fernandez, or Rosales could be seriously demoralized about their own ability by ManU scoring repeatedly on Estrada and Graham.

by regnaD kciN on Aug 1, 2011 4:37 PM PDT up reply actions

There's no "I" in team

It’s not the singular performances – team effort, team confidence. Defensive struggles were already there, but overall offensive output has been stunted since that match. We also had our starters and some of the rotational starters out there longer than anyone wants to admit. It’s the overall team psyche.

But we’ve moved on from this… Hopefully a solid win with multiple goal output tomorrow night puts this whole damn thing to bed already. We just haven’t had that bounce-back game yet.

SSFC | What I do for fun: Sometimes-Interesting

by ABTsportsline on Aug 2, 2011 9:02 AM PDT up reply actions

Nailed it

I’m not sure Riley’s “declining” so much as he is being exposed through overwork, or just exposed. He’s always been a player who concentrates a bit too much on the forward aspect of his role, and he’s extremely streaky on defense, which to me means he’s getting fatigued. He doesn’t strugggle to get back very often, but when he does it’s deadly.

Wahl on the other hand just plain isn’t good enough. I can’t count the number of times he’s found himself facing the wrong way after an opponent turns him like a rusty gate. I love having his free kicking ability and his set piece presence but he exposes us too much.

Ianni’s turned himself into a good, solid, unspectacular defender. Parke is adequate. Hurtado has been brilliant — we need another one of him.

But yeah, our defense is slipping badly lately. We need upgrades.

by Fnarf on Aug 1, 2011 10:58 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Wahl and Riley are both wingbacks, and probably pretty decent ones.

Unfortunately, we don’t play a 3-5-2.

by Aaron Campeau on Aug 1, 2011 11:04 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Even decent fullbacks in a 4-2-3-1

with the two being two Alonsos.

The biggest issue I have is that they both can’t be forward at the same time. Particularly if the 2nd CM is a defensive hole.

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Aug 1, 2011 4:05 PM PDT up reply actions

Yes I know they're wingbacks

But they still have defensive responsibilities, since that’s where the attacks are coming from. If the opponent goes one-on-one with Ianni, he’s going to lose; if he takes on Wahl, he’s going to win as often as not, and then we hope and pray that Ianni or Parke is there to pick up.

It would be cool if we could play the classic overlapping winger style better but we just don’t have the talent. Nobody in MLS does, really. I’m thinking like Bale and Modric were doing at the end of the season before last, and into last season, or BAE and Lennon on the right (sorry, dropping in some Spurs talk). We don’t have that. We have to play more conservatively in the back.

One thing that I’ve noticed lately is a return of the deer-in-the-headlights look from earlier this year — sudden turnovers leading to everyone freezing with “duh, I dunno what to do”. These seem to take place right at the final third — right on the border between the midfield and the back. Like the defense isn’t expecting the ball to slip back. Maybe that’s what Dave means by “two Alonsos” — Alonso is great but he can’t be expected to cover the entire back of the midfield.

by Fnarf on Aug 1, 2011 6:02 PM PDT up reply actions

My point was that they're probably both well suited to being wingbacks

But that’s not real helpful since the Sounders don’t use wingbacks

by Aaron Campeau on Aug 1, 2011 7:06 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions 2 recs

Regarding Riley and Wahl...

Guess I don’t get what is causing the overall defensive breakdown. While Riley and Wahl are definitely not the best in the league at their position – they rightly held down the fort quite well through plenty of clean sheets earlier in the season. Wahl also has had a reduced role in the attack lately, and is still getting beat more often.

I’m wondering what’s changed the last month that has let the back 4 concede so many goals. Fatigue? Season taking its toll? Other teams figuring us out?

SSFC | What I do for fun: Sometimes-Interesting

by ABTsportsline on Aug 1, 2011 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions

Schedule doesn't look as bad as I had imagined...

Wed 8/3 CCL Home SanFran
Sat 8/6 MLS Away Sporting KC
Sat 8/13 MLS Home Chivas
Sat 8/20 MLS Away FCD
Sat 8/27 MLS Home Crew
Tue 8/30 USOC Home FCD

Turning around from Wednesday and flying out to KC will be rough. Looking for a draw there would seem realistic.

I fully expect wins in our home games against Chivas and Crew. I think we can get results from both.

The away FCD game will be tough. The heat + travel + playing a good team will all be against us. I’m hoping for a draw but could really see a loss here.

The home USOC game is going to be rough as well. At least they will have already been home and Dallas will have to travel, and Dallas will have been coming off a Saturday game in Kansas, so it’ll be a long road trip for them. Hopefully we can get some good solid minutes from Honey Badger, Jaqua, and Fucito. I the latter two having limited minutes against Columbus. I think we can have a fresh enough mix of starters/reserves for tuesday to off FCD. I wonder if they will fly more out for the USOC game or just stick with the 18 for Sporks? Or fly more than 18 out and bring them along?

by chrisperry1983 on Aug 1, 2011 9:42 AM PDT reply actions

the reserves also have a game in vancouver on the 10th.. so some of the 18 will have a quick turnaround

by Sandra_R on Aug 1, 2011 2:33 PM PDT up reply actions

What are our betting odds for CCL Wednesday and USOC FCD?

I’d be content with us getting into the MLS playoffs anywhere around the #3-#5 seed—I’d rather we dip now and then start to peak again as we near those anyway.

But titles titles titles, so I’m more worried immediately with our odds of advancing in CCL and USOC. If all else fails I want a USOC three-peat and at least knockout stage of CCL .

by joesz on Aug 1, 2011 9:53 AM PDT reply actions

This is hardly a surprise

About the only things here that could not have been predicted at the start of the season is that we would not have Z right now and what specifically the strength of our opponents might be. We long ago knew we would be in CCL and Open Cup right now and have fixture congestion at the end of summer. My one mulligan to give to FO on this was last year and our dismal CCL. This year, they have to either step it up or we need to shake it up. Bradley had just signed an extension too…..

by Brougham Hooligan on Aug 1, 2011 9:59 AM PDT reply actions

Not to sound too negative

But there’s a good chance we don’t score the two goals needed vs San Francisco and we might lose to FC Dallas in the Open Cup semis.

Getting knocked out of both competitions will be painful but would allow us to focus on league play. Maybe that’s not so bad? I don’t think we have the depth we thought we did – look at how thin our options off the bench were in Houston, not to mention plenty of the starters are tired.

SSFC | What I do for fun: Sometimes-Interesting

by ABTsportsline on Aug 1, 2011 10:09 AM PDT reply actions

I like the CCL but the Holy Grail is the MLS Cup

Via the Supporter’s Shield. Win your league. WIN YOUR LEAGUE.

by Fnarf on Aug 1, 2011 10:59 AM PDT up reply actions

I care about the MLS Cup a little less than I do the USOC

Supporters Shield is my Holy Grail.

by Aaron Campeau on Aug 1, 2011 11:00 AM PDT up reply actions

Supporters Shield is also my holy grail

I don’t think we can catch LA this year although we might get 2nd in the league. CCL title would be awesome. If we can just continue to advance we can focus early next season on the CCL title. For this seasonmthat leaves the Open and MLS Cups. I would like the MLS Cup because jerseys with stars on the crest are cool. ;)

by Dizzo on Aug 1, 2011 11:21 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

Line-up decisions are interesting this month...

The line-ups are the most telling indicators for how the FO and Sigi view these competitions relative to each other. I was a bit suprised we didn’t rest a few of our starters vs. Houston. Wonder if we’ll see fresh legs vs. SF or if we’ll continue to play the same crew. Eventually playing on 5 days rest will catch up to them.

by InternetCharlie on Aug 1, 2011 11:54 AM PDT up reply actions

Same here...

…although the Shield might not mean the same next year, with an unbalanced schedule.

MLS Cup? Sure, it’s supposed to be the Grail, but after watching it being won by two straight just-snuck-into-the-playoffs clubs who benefited greatly from the league’s weird seeding and never had to face the best (or even the second-best?) team in the regular season. To me, the MLS Cup is more about who gets a) on a hot streak and b) lucky in the few weeks after the regular season, not the class team of that regular season.

by regnaD kciN on Aug 1, 2011 4:42 PM PDT up reply actions

True, but you also get called "MLS Champs" and you get a star over your crest

Say what you want about the merit of the championship, but years later no one is reciting the circumstances – only the winner.

For point of reference I agree with your description, but I still hold the MLS Cup as a priority – even over the SS (more for bragging rights than anything else)

SSFC | What I do for fun: Sometimes-Interesting

by ABTsportsline on Aug 2, 2011 9:08 AM PDT up reply actions

An MLS team wins the MLS Cup every year

Haven’t been continental champions in a decade, and then only because it was played on American soil.

Be exceptional, not just good.

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Aug 1, 2011 2:02 PM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

To me, there are no Holy Grails

Take them all.

by ubelmann on Aug 1, 2011 12:19 PM PDT up reply actions 2 recs

Wait, are you suggesting that we put them up against the wall and shoot them?

You do all the work for us, Honey Badger, and we'll just eat whatever you find.

by mistuhp on Aug 1, 2011 5:16 PM PDT up reply actions

With four starters injured the Sounders still had a decent lineup

that’s still depth

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Aug 1, 2011 10:43 AM PDT up reply actions

Didn't say we don't have depth - just that it's not as good as we thought

SSFC | What I do for fun: Sometimes-Interesting

by ABTsportsline on Aug 1, 2011 11:35 AM PDT up reply actions

The depth has the 4th best record in the league

if you ever thought it was better than that I don’t know what to say.

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Aug 1, 2011 2:03 PM PDT up reply actions

I'll admit to thinking it briefly

in July. But if you’d said “fourth in MLS” at the beginning of the season I’d have taken it in a heartbeat.

by Fnarf on Aug 2, 2011 10:19 AM PDT up reply actions

Injuries are foreseeable though

I suspect what we are seeing is the lovely parity system of the MLS. You can do your best to craft one A-Team, but no team can have a really great second string as the available salaries fall off a cliff. That said, we have done as good of a job as any in having the best bench that we can.

by Brougham Hooligan on Aug 1, 2011 12:22 PM PDT up reply actions

One possible bright spot for August

By my calculations we should see a return of OBW this month, no? Obviously not full fitness but hey, a better end-of-game sub than Noonan/Jaqua.

by Philip Mueller on Aug 1, 2011 11:31 AM PDT reply actions

I'm hoping he can start by the end of the month

We could really use his height and speed on the front line. I think he should be a 60 minute starter at some point this month.

by Dizzo on Aug 1, 2011 11:38 AM PDT up reply actions

yes, it's a tough month

but isn’t that what we’re looking for? If we’re going to be among the elite, aren’t months like these the defining times? We want to be in three competitions this time of year. We want to give the LAs of the world something to think about.

Same thing with the playoffs… I don’t want to finish in the best strategic position; I want the Sounders to finish as high as possible. Because if this is a good team, bring on the tough months/tough road in the playoffs. Championship teams often have issues in-season. What sets them apart is that, in months like the we’re about to start, they step up. They adjust.

I imagine we will deserve to be wherever we are at month’s end. I just hope it’s for the better.

by jayw913 on Aug 1, 2011 11:43 AM PDT reply actions