State of the MLS Run In: 9 Weeks To Go

by sidereal on Aug 23, 2011 7:00 AM PDT in Major League Soccer: News & Analysis

As the regular season winds down I'm going to be posting a weekly summary of the some of the data and predictions we're generating, which should give you some context going into each week of games.

Playoff & Trophy Probabilities

This is each team's up to date odds of making the playoffs, winning the Supporter's Shield, and winning the MLS Cup based on simulating the remainder of the season 10000 times.

Avg Pts for Playoffs		44.4535
	Avg Pos	Avg Points	Playoff %	Supporters Shield %	MLS Cup %
Los Angeles	1.19	63.99	100.0	85.0	22.0
Seattle	2.74	57.85	100.0	10.7	12.6
FC Dallas	4.14	54.74	99.7	1.58	9.58
Columbus	4.99	52.96	98.62	1.16	12.78
Colorado	5.72	51.61	98.31	0.46	7.88
Real Salt Lake	6.10	50.69	94.93	0.84	5.11
Kansas City	6.55	50.08	93.3	0.18	11.06
Philadelphia	8.00	47.71	81.57	0.08	6.9
DC United	9.54	45.57	60.26	0.0	4.53
Houston	10.04	44.79	54.85	0.0	2.51
New York	10.09	44.21	53.19	0.0	2.8
Chivas USA	10.17	44.11	51.36	0.0	2.15
Portland	12.65	40.16	11.65	0.0	0.08
Chicago	14.42	35.66	1.6	0.0	0.06
San Jose	15.00	34.62	0.64	0.0	0.01
New England	15.90	32.33	0.03	0.0	0.0
Toronto FC	16.40	31.45	0.0	0.0	0.0
Vancouver	17.37	27.93	0.0	0.0	0.0

Teams Eliminated

Teams that have been eliminated by three decreasingly stringent standards. Read here for more details.

Mathematical Elimination (Unable to make the playoffs in any scenario)
None
Effective Elimination (Unable to make 40 points even with perfect play)
None
Projected Elimination (less than 1% chance of making the playoffs in simulation)
San Jose, New England, Toronto FC, Vancouver

Remaining Strength of Schedule

Using the same simulation, we can also determine remaining schedule strength by seeing how a league average team would do with each team's remaining schedule. Teams at the top have schedules against which an average team got the most PPG, meaning we think they have the easiest remaining schedule.

	Avg Team Points	Matches	Pts / Match
Seattle	12.064	8	1.508
New York	11.769	8	1.471
Kansas City	12.998	9	1.444
Toronto FC	9.995	7	1.428
FC Dallas	11.258	8	1.407
Vancouver	12.611	9	1.401
Colorado	9.796	7	1.399
Portland	12.585	9	1.398
New England	11.115	8	1.389
DC United	13.846	10	1.385
Chicago	12.423	9	1.38
Chivas USA	12.316	9	1.368
Columbus	12.24	9	1.36
Philadelphia	13.583	10	1.358
Los Angeles	10.632	8	1.329
Real Salt Lake	14.082	11	1.28
San Jose	11.494	9	1.277
Houston	10.061	8	1.258

Seattle's First Round Opponent

This is the likelihood of each team being the first playoff opponent for Seattle (either in the preliminary round or — more likely — in the Conference Semifinals).

	Matchup %
FC Dallas	44.4%
Colorado	20.0%
Real Salt Lake	16.8%
Chivas USA	4.5%
New York	2.5%
Houston	2.4%
DC United	2.4%
Los Angeles	2.0%
Philadelphia	1.9%
Kansas City	1.4%
Portland	1.0%

Tweet Comment 24 comments | 5 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

I'm confused on why Dallas would be our likely opponent in the semis?

I figured we’d be facing a lower wildcard opponent, and that maybe we’d face Dallas in the Conference Finals? The diagram I’m looking at from Wikipedia is confusing, because it uses W1, W2, W3, E1, E2, E3 as well as SS. And the playoffs are already confusing, and it’s only 7:30 in the morning sans coffee.

by chrisperry1983 on Aug 23, 2011 7:29 AM PDT reply actions

MLS Playoff Format

http://www.mlssoccer.com/news/article/mls-reveals-expanded-playoffs-structure-2011

The number 2 and 3 teams in the west face each other in the semis, which will be their first round. The number 1 team will play the winner of a play-in game between the two wildcard teams. There is a high chance that Seattle and Dallas will finish in the 2nd and 3rd spots, order to be determined, so most likely Dallas and Seattle will face off in the first round (semis).

by Peter Westhagen on Aug 23, 2011 7:38 AM PDT up reply actions

Playoffs are confusing

coffee won’t change a thing

The play-in/wild card round is midweek with WC1 facing WC4 and WC 2 v WC3

In the Conference Semis two leg series. The lowest seed to advance faces the Supporters Shield winner (almost certainly West1) and the other seed faces the other Conference winner. The 2 and 3 seed from each Conference face each other. Higher seed hosts the second match, which is mid week.

Conference Finals hosted by the highest seed to advance on the next weekend date.

Finals are in LA at the Home Depot Center (soon to be Farmers Field iirc) after a two week break.

Being in the Wild Card means four games in two weeks with the last two being on the road.

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Aug 23, 2011 7:39 AM PDT up reply actions

So basically...

Play-in round:
Wildcards duke it out

Conference semis:
Play-in winners face W1 and E1
W2 face W3, E2 face E3

Semis:
Winner of WC, W1 and WC, E1 face winner of W2, W3 and E2, E3

Final:
Winner each conference face at Home Depot Center

And so I understand correctly still… even with this more confusing restructure, there is still a chance that the Eastern Conference winner is a Western Conference team?

by chrisperry1983 on Aug 23, 2011 9:31 AM PDT up reply actions

Yes, just like in the NCAA tourney

a team from the East Coast can win the Western Regional

I am not a Supporter | I am not a Fan | I am a Sounder
Sounder At Heart

by Dave Clark on Aug 23, 2011 9:32 AM PDT up reply actions

I thought the whole point of the restructure was to help prevent that.

Which in a way I guess it does, since there’s 3 guaranteed in the east now. But still. Oh well, such is life.

by chrisperry1983 on Aug 23, 2011 9:38 AM PDT up reply actions

There will a max of 1 western conf team in the east and they’ll have to play an extra game. But ya, still a good chance RSL or Col will be the Eastern Champs.

The only thing you missed in the playoff structure is that the SS will play the lowest seeded wildcard winner. A bit confusing, but it gives a little more importance to the SS which is nice.

by lefthand on Aug 23, 2011 9:50 AM PDT up reply actions

Shouldn’t PPG*Games Remaining in the SoS equal the projected point total in the table, or were these different simulations? There’s a 2.3pt difference for LAG and almost 1pt for SEA between the two calculations.

by bmvaughn on Aug 23, 2011 7:43 AM PDT reply actions

Obviously I mean

PPG*GR+Current Points

by bmvaughn on Aug 23, 2011 7:54 AM PDT up reply actions

SoS table is performance for an average team with that schedule

So above average teams (like LA/Sea) should outperform that and bad teams will underperform it. Like we project VAN to only get 9ish more points this season, but an average team gets 12.6 with their schedule.

Nos Audietis

by sidereal on Aug 23, 2011 11:56 AM PDT up reply actions

Remember when people wanted to fire Sigi?

I miss *REAL* Four Loko

by B-Lot tailgater on Aug 23, 2011 8:13 AM PDT reply actions

honestly... no....

by nimajneb on Aug 23, 2011 8:26 AM PDT up reply actions

I know!

We could have landed a Tommy Soehn. #whatmighhavebeen

by Dizzo on Aug 23, 2011 8:27 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs

A few random thoughts...

For me one of the most telling statistics is the expected ppg vs. strength of schedule. Statistically the Sounders can expect to make up one single solitary point in the standings over the final 8 games even though they have the easiest strength of schedule and LA has one of the hardest. Speaks volumes to parity in the league and the even handed nature of the remaining schedule. And truly points to the statistical climb necessary for the Sounders to win the SS. Not impossible but certainly improbable.

Curious, does the strength of schedule calculation take into account home and away games or just the average strength of a paticular opponent? Some teams excel at home and are simply atrocious on the road.

Also got me thinking about travel distances. In order to reach any site in the CCCL other than another MLS squad, the Sounders must first travel a distance equivalent to the distance to LA and then on to the CCCL opponent. This is a huge disadvantage relative to LA in terms of travel expense and fatigue. Does the league give a franchise any assistance with travel expenses in this regard?

by Abbott Smith on Aug 23, 2011 8:38 AM PDT reply actions

I think MLS has helped

I haven’t heard that this was done this way on purpose, but we played in Houston before we went to Panama and Dallas before Monterrey. We still have to go home in one trip, but the trip down is much easier this way. We also don’t have a road game in MLS for a month.

by lefthand on Aug 23, 2011 9:21 AM PDT up reply actions

It takes into account home/away

and weights recent results more heavily

Nos Audietis

by sidereal on Aug 23, 2011 11:59 AM PDT up reply actions

Thanks

by Abbott Smith on Aug 23, 2011 12:33 PM PDT up reply actions

Chances at winning USOC

Any probabilities on winning USOC that you can add?

by Toxtr3m34u on Aug 23, 2011 10:02 AM PDT reply actions

Could try

USOC is quirky, since the home grounds aren’t quite the same and they tend to be reserve heavy (though that’s probably over at this point). And we really don’t have any data on Richmond. It’s probably safer just to give each team a 50/50, and in homefield advantage, and call it a day.

Should put in Cascadia Cup odds, though. Right now it’s Seattle 65%, Portland 20%, Vancouver 15%

Nos Audietis

by sidereal on Aug 23, 2011 12:04 PM PDT up reply actions

Whoa.

Sporting has a 1 in 9 chance of winning an MLS Cup? What a big difference from June.

Does this calculation factor home field advantage for LA Galaxy if they make it to the MLS Cup?

Bloggin' at JoePasDoghouse.com

by J.Schnauzer on Aug 23, 2011 11:44 AM PDT reply actions

No

It considers the final to be on ‘neutral’ ground. I should probably put a hack in there to make the final a home game for the Galaxy (or Chivas!) if they make it that far.

Nos Audietis

by sidereal on Aug 23, 2011 12:00 PM PDT up reply actions

I said a month ago KC's going to win the East

I still think so, maybe, though they have a lot of ground to make up on Columbus. But remember they play almost all home games (6H, 3A). They’re a really good squad. They’ve been as good as anyone over their last 15 games — well, almost: LA 34, SEA 31, SKC 30, CLB 27. They have nine games to make up four points, with a significantly easier schedule. Hmm.

by Fnarf on Aug 23, 2011 3:01 PM PDT up reply actions

Six pointer this fall will most likely determine it.

SportingKC – Columbus at LSP this fall. SKC win and they will likely top the East, SKC loss and there’s too much ground to make up.

Bloggin' at JoePasDoghouse.com

by J.Schnauzer on Aug 23, 2011 6:08 PM PDT via mobile up reply actions

Looking more closely at Galaxy

I think our hope rests on their extremely tough away games at Kansas City, Columbus, and Houston. These teams are all very tough at home — SKC’s actually the weakest. If LA can just lose those three games, and draw at New York (who stink, but are decent at home) and Chivas (which is sort of a home game for both, and while Chivas is very unlikely to win, a draw is quite feasible), then we come within shooting range. We have to win our five home games, or at least four of them (DC is probably the toughest away team there), and draw our away games, to pull level or almost level. Win one away — which we can do (VAN, NER) and we’re ahead.

My own little match-to-match projection exercise ends up LAG 62, SEA 61, DAL 58. That’s pretty damn close.

I’ve dismissed this possibility out of hand before, but looking at LA’s schedule I can see it happening now. Of course, if they clobber Red Bulls this weekend, we’re done for.

by Fnarf on Aug 23, 2011 4:23 PM PDT reply actions