State of the MLS Run In: 7 Weeks To Go
by sidereal on Sep 6, 2011 1:00 PM PDT
in Major League Soccer: News & Analysis
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PrintAs the regular season winds down I'm going to be posting a weekly summary of the some of the data and predictions we're generating, which should give you some context going into each week of games.
A very light week this time as the international break was actually observed by MLS and left only two games on the docket. But those games weren't without consequence. All four participants are jockeying for critical playoff position and the match between Sporting Kansas City and the Los Angeles Galaxy was an important one in the Supporters Shield race. It turned out the 2-2 draw was effectively a push as the Galaxy's Shield chances dropped by only 1%. If Kansas City had won (if, say, Aurelien Collin's goal hadn't been called back as offside), LA's Shield chance would be down to 68% (with Seattle at 21%). If LA had won (if, say, Frankie Hejduk hadn't gifted the Sporks with a handball in the penalty area in the final minutes), their Shield odds would be up to 88% and Seattle would be on the brink.
Playoff & Trophy Probabilities
This is each team's up to date odds of making the playoffs, winning the Supporter's Shield, and winning the MLS Cup based on simulating the remainder of the season 10000 times.
| Avg Pos | Avg Points | Playoff % | Change | Supporters Shield % | MLS Cup % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles | 1.31 | 63.75 | 100.0 | -- | 76.26 | 21.16 |
| Seattle | 2.39 | 59.35 | 100.0 | -- | 16.97 | 12.96 |
| FC Dallas | 3.34 | 56.93 | 100.0 | -- | 3.72 | 10.74 |
| Real Salt Lake | 4.11 | 54.51 | 99.90 | +0.69 | 2.79 | 8.34 |
| Columbus | 5.65 | 51.80 | 98.8 | -0.26 | 0.23 | 12.17 |
| Colorado | 6.57 | 49.76 | 97.76 | +0.22 | 0.02 | 5.01 |
| Kansas City | 7.68 | 47.64 | 88.77 | -0.88 | 0.0 | 8.96 |
| Philadelphia | 8.16 | 46.85 | 83.07 | -3.82 | 0.01 | 7.17 |
| DC United | 9.24 | 45.45 | 66.78 | +0.45 | 0.0 | 6.49 |
| New York | 9.75 | 44.16 | 61.24 | +0.89 | 0.0 | 3.60 |
| Houston | 10.43 | 43.49 | 49.42 | +0.34 | 0.0 | 2.05 |
| Portland | 11.74 | 41.66 | 25.92 | +2.01 | 0.0 | 0.35 |
| Chivas USA | 11.99 | 40.52 | 21.60 | +0.54 | 0.0 | 0.75 |
| Chicago | 13.54 | 37.76 | 6.17 | -0.02 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| San Jose | 15.13 | 34.60 | 0.77 | -0.13 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| New England | 16.13 | 32.18 | 0.05 | -0.02 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Toronto FC | 16.81 | 30.88 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Vancouver | 17.04 | 29.73 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Avg Pts for Playoffs | 43.70 | |||||
Teams Eliminated
Teams that have been eliminated by three decreasingly stringent standards. Read here for more details.
- Mathematical Elimination (Unable to make the playoffs in any scenario)
None - Effective Elimination (Unable to make 40 points even with perfect play)
None - Projected Elimination (less than 1% chance of making the playoffs in simulation)
San Jose, New England, Toronto FC, Vancouver
Remaining Strength of Schedule
Using the same simulation, we can also determine remaining schedule strength by seeing how a league average team would do with each team's remaining schedule. Teams at the top have schedules against which an average team got the most PPG, meaning we think they have the easiest remaining schedule.
| Avg Team Points | Matches | Pts / Match | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle | 10.362 | 7 | 1.48 |
| New York | 11.796 | 8 | 1.475 |
| FC Dallas | 10.231 | 7 | 1.462 |
| Philadelphia | 12.935 | 9 | 1.437 |
| Kansas City | 10.053 | 7 | 1.436 |
| Columbus | 11.21 | 8 | 1.401 |
| Colorado | 8.395 | 6 | 1.399 |
| Los Angeles | 9.736 | 7 | 1.391 |
| DC United | 13.804 | 10 | 1.38 |
| New England | 10.987 | 8 | 1.373 |
| Portland | 10.912 | 8 | 1.364 |
| Toronto FC | 8.179 | 6 | 1.363 |
| Chivas USA | 9.519 | 7 | 1.36 |
| Chicago | 10.875 | 8 | 1.359 |
| Vancouver | 10.788 | 8 | 1.348 |
| San Jose | 10.196 | 8 | 1.275 |
| Real Salt Lake | 11.439 | 9 | 1.271 |
| Houston | 8.851 | 7 | 1.264 |
Seattle's First Round Opponent
This is the likelihood of each team being the first playoff opponent for Seattle (either in the preliminary round or — more likely — in the Conference Semifinals).
| Matchup % | |
|---|---|
| FC Dallas | 44.2% |
| Real Salt Lake | 22.5% |
| Colorado | 10.4% |
| Los Angeles | 4.7% |
| New York | 3.0% |
| Houston | 2.8% |
| Kansas City | 2.5% |
| DC United | 2.5% |
| Chivas USA | 2.2% |
| Philadelphia | 2.1% |
| Portland | 2.1% |
Cascadia Cup Odds
This is the % chance for each of the Cascadia teams of winning the rivalry cup.
| Odds | |
|---|---|
| Seattle | 65.22 |
| Portland | 19.08 |
| Vancouver | 15.70 |
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I wonder what the other probable matchups could be
If I am understanding the MLS playoff structure right LA would play the lowest seeded wildcard team that makes it through that round. So in all likely hood a team from the east. Very well could be LA vs new York in a home and home series. If New York stops sucking at defense that would be an interesting series.
"The fans are excited. And the stadium, well, it ignites with explosion."
34% Rapids, 14% FCD, 13%RSL
New York’s at 5%. I think the math is that it’s unlikely an East team makes it out of the wildcard round (midweek away game at a better team)
Nos Audietis
Thanks for the numbers
Now that i actually think about it it your numbers make sense. Western Conference team will probably be the higher seeds of the wild cards and will therefore have home field over any wildcard from the east.
"The fans are excited. And the stadium, well, it ignites with explosion."
Anyone think Colorado can do us a solid and knock LA out of the playoffs?
"The fans are excited. And the stadium, well, it ignites with explosion."
LA or a few of LA's players?
I don’t think they’re good enough to beat LA and I don’t think the officials will allow them to be too physical with MLS’s favorite team.
On the other hand, their thuggish style of play may knock a player or two out of the playoffs, which in all seriousness would be a shame. I’d love for the Sounders to knock LA out when the Galaxy are at home and full strength.
"...if, say, Aurelien Collin's goal hadn't been called back as offside"
But Donovan called it offside, and he is a US soccer god who is absolutely never wrong. The sideline ref had no choice but to follow his lead.
Sounders 'til I die
by SounderJunkie on Sep 6, 2011 1:38 PM PDT reply actions 1 recs
What a brat....
and the way Beckham reacted to the position of the ball on the PK was ridiculous.
by thesafetylemur on Sep 7, 2011 6:45 AM PDT up reply actions
I don't think it was ridiculous
He was trying to screw up Bravo’s routine and concentration. Didn’t work and cost him a card, but it might have worked against a less-experienced PK-taker.
You're probably right...
Which makes it even more ridiculous. Coming from someone that should be considered a “leader” in this league, that was a pretty big chump move.
by thesafetylemur on Sep 7, 2011 9:33 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Was it worse than Marshall's scuffing of the PK spot in Columbus in 2009?
It’s gamesmanship, pure and simple. It backfired on him (which I’m pretty happy about), but I don’t have a problem with him trying it. I think you put it in the same category as trying to get away with jogging up the sidelines 5 or 10 yards before a throw-in or inching the wall as close to a free-kick taker as the ref will let you get away with.
It certainly was the soccer version of icing the kicker
And thankfully it didn’t work. In my mind its really no different then a tactical foul. He sure did his best to make it look childish though.
by Derek R on Sep 7, 2011 10:22 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
It was lovely to see Frankie Hejduk screw up
I hate that man
FRIMPONG ought always be written in full caps #DEEEEEEENCH
FCD or RSL?
I can’t decide who I’d rather see us play in the first round.
Depends on what our game vs RSL at home is like for me.
I already know how good FC Dallas is, so personally i would rather avoid them if possible, but I’m not sure i want RSL either. We beat them on the road during a period of struggles for us. I want to see how well we do against them at the top of our game before i choose RSL.
Which reminds me… MLS Playoff structure really sucks.
"The fans are excited. And the stadium, well, it ignites with explosion."
I'm tired of playing FCD. I'd rather see RSL or someone else
At least RSL doesn’t throw dirty elbows when they’re losing.
Neither. I want the SS and the worst wild card winner.
But I’m greedy that way.
by CMC_Stags on Sep 8, 2011 10:27 AM PDT up reply actions 1 recs
Would it be possible
to add the change +/- on the other categories, like SS and MLS Cup like you have for the Playoff field or does the chart become too muddled?
Either way, I like the graphical representation :)
Sounders FC & Gunner's Supporter
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