FanShot

Zach Slaton, as a contributor to Forbes and blogger over at A Beautiful Numbers Game, has made his...

Western-conference-finals1

Zach Slaton, as a contributor to Forbes and blogger over at A Beautiful Numbers Game, has made his calculations, and his numbers indicate that the Sounders are the least likely team to reach the MLS Cup Finals, much less win it. Read here: http://www.forbes.com/sites/zachslaton/2012/10/30/mls-knockout-round-and-mls-cup-predictions In fact, if I'm reading it correctly, neither the Sounders nor the Whitecaps won the final in any of his 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations. Now, I question the robustness of a model that so heavily discounts random chance that results in a simulation where 10% of the participants never win, but there is some indication that it works, as it has done a pretty good job of giving the highest odds to the winner. But there's precedence for a team to "break" the model, as the model gave the 2005 LA Galaxy only a 0.0% chance to win it all, but they did indeed go on to win the whole kit and kaboodle. And NYRB made the finals in 2008 after having a 1.7% chance to win. I'd take it all with a grain of salt, as the playoffs are a notoriously small sample size, but is food for thought, even if that food makes you a bit queasy and upset.

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Sounder At Heart

You must be a member of Sounder At Heart to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Sounder At Heart. You should read them.

Join Sounder At Heart

You must be a member of Sounder At Heart to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Sounder At Heart. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9353_tracker