Major Link Soccer: Robbie Keane Might Return To England, Gary Smith Talks Stan Kroenke, Castrol Re-Ups
So has it sunk in yet? You've had a weekend to ponder "The Trade," have you gone through the stages? I'm still not sure what to think, though in my internet wanderings there seems to be a small set of fans that think that the good or bad of this trade hinges on our CCL affair -- which I find highly irrational. I still maintain that we can't grade this trade now, or tomorrow or at the end of the season. Too many variables.
Happy Presidents' Day everyone, time for some Major Link Soccer.
So tell me if you've heard this story before: That according to most overseas -- I'm looking at you England -- the MLS is nothing more than a Mickey Mouse affair or, at the most, a retirement home? Yeah me too, lots. Former LA Galaxy midfielder Chris Birchall who left the MLS champs at the end of the season, fears that his time in America could hinder his chances when it comes to the English game.
He's currently training with League 1 side Port Vale.
"Some managers still think there's that stigma of playing in the MLS and only certain players can play at a higher level. But when I've trained with Oldham and Vale some of the players said they envied me for playing in LA. From a manager's point of view, though, they don't see the standard as being so high."
He left the Galaxy due to having to take a pay cut if he were to stay on. Having only started 19 games, his contract renewal didn't kick in -- falling one game short of the 20 needed to turn over his contract.
Speaking of the LA Galaxy, Robbie Keane is just about to wrap up his loan deal with Premier side Aston Villa and return to the MLS Champions LA Galaxy. He recently told Goal.com that if things don't work out right away in the City of Angels, he'll high-tail it back home to England.
"When I go back to LA, it could be completely different. At this moment in time I can't tell what will happen. It's a case of watch this space," he said. "But people have seen over the years with the clubs I've been at, how quickly I leave if I don't think I fit in."
So what do you think the over/under is of Keane cutting bait and running back to England at some point this season?
Who says you can never go home? For Canadian International and Quebec native Patrice Bernier, it's happening as he returns to the Montreal Impact after a 9 year career in Europe.
"As I'm coming in with a number of years played in Europe and with my national team experience, I know that I will have a (leadership) role. At every team that I have been at I have been a vice-captain. And here we have many younger players and, along with the other experienced MLS players that we have brought in, I have to set a certain standard, especially for an expansion team. We will have to lead and be vocal and I will have to be a role model or at least lead by example. Right from the get go, that is what the coaching staff wants us to be," Bernier said.
Gary Smith, former MLS Cup winning coach of the Colorado Rapids as you know, is now coaching League 1 side Stevenage. Recently he spoke up about Rapids and Arsenal FC owner Stan Kroenke.
"I think his sport that he enjoys mostly is basketball, and he owns the [Denver] Nuggets, and I think his actual understanding and appreciation of the game and rules [of football] is not necessarily that of maybe owners who have been around for donkey’s years in this country."
Smith went on to say he enjoyed his time in Colorado, and admitted that he just may have run his mouth in the press a bit while he was at the helm of the Rapids. How's he doing in England? His team over the weekend tied Tottenham Hotspur in the latest round of the FA cup, forcing a replay. Go read the article if only for the litany of excuses laid forth by Harry "I have a ham stuck in my throat" Redknapp.
As I've reported in this space before, Clint Dempsey has been doing a diary of sorts for Goal.com, in his latest entry he talks about how it's easier to turn pro now than when he did with the academy systems starting up in the US.
The new system is good because when you’re playing in the best environment possible, around the best players week in week out, it’s always going to push you to be your best. By being in academies that MLS clubs are running, hopefully it’s helping players get better coaching without having to pay top dollar for it. It also helps them get looked at and to have a chance to make that jump to being a professional.
Former Toronto FC winger/left back Danleigh Borman has turned down an offer from the New England Revolution and will instead head back to South Africa and sign with SuperSport United.
"I'm very happy to join SuperSport," Borman said. "From what I have heard, they are a go-ahead club and I will be eager to make my mark in the PSL."
Castrol has renewed it's partnership with the MLS, United States Men's National Team and the Mexican National Team. The deal will run through the 2014 FIFA World Cup.
"Castrol continues to be an extraordinary strategic partner for Major League Soccer, U.S. Soccer and the Mexican National Team," said David Wright, Senior Vice President of Global Sponsorship, Soccer United Marketing. "Castrol has introduced innovative fan engagement strategies and tools that have become very popular with soccer fans around the world. We are extremely proud of the partnership to date and equally excited about the future."
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Ahem . . .
Go read the article if only for the litany of excuses laid forth by Harry “I have a ham stuck in my throat” Redknapp.
-)
That’s “ex-Seattle Sounder Harry Redknapp” to you. :
I do believe I have been educated..
…though still when he talks it sounds like he has a holiday ham stuck in his throat.
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Editor/Writer for Managing Madrid & Writer for Sounder At Heart
by Timm Higgins on Feb 20, 2012 8:38 AM PST up reply actions
Now how the hell
did that strikethrough get there?
be very careful with use of dashes at start of paragraphs
Editor/writer at Sounder at Heart, MLS editor SB Nation. Follow me on Twitter. You'll Never Yacht Alone.
by Jeremiah Oshan on Feb 20, 2012 8:13 AM PST up reply actions
Grading the trade
Eddie Johnson is a striker, so as long as he scores goals we can definitely grade the trade right away. Here are some examples of how I’d call it a year one success.
for an ‘A’ in the short term..
2 goals in Santos Laguna series or sets up match winner
If he gets at least three goals in his first ten MLS games, and/or is provider for Montero
By season’s end..
Makes the all-star team
Is the second leading Sounders scorer
He is the preferred starter and we win at least two trophies, regardless of his goal tally
I think all the variables go out the window if EJ is the preferred starter and we win MLS Cup or CCL. Fucito was never going to get the job, and Neagle wouldn’t have got the playing time.
I'm not sure that's a good way to look at things
Results based analysis is generally the worst way to judge past actions. In poker, re-raising all in before the flop with 7-2 against is a bad move; even if the flop brings the other three 7’s.
I’d like to think that this move is closer to something like playing mega millions when the jackpot gets large. Once the jackpot is over 175 million, every lottery ticket you buy should actually turn a profit in the long run. Of course the odds of it doing it are very low, but if it happens the outcome would be so great it’s worth taking a flyer on.
If you occur poker analogies, imagine you have a double belly buster straight with one card to come. You are up against 2 opponents who have already bet and called 50. The pot is 250. You do not have the odds to call (you will only hit one of your cards around 17%). However, if you do hit your card, you are likely to more than that 250. Each of your opponents have another 250 in their stacks. You only need to win an extra 50 from one of them to make it worthwhile, and the chance that you can felt one or both makes calling to original bet a good idea.
The problem with this kind of analysis in regards to this trade is we don’t have a very good idea of the odds of any of the outcomes or the values of any of the outcomes. To make a fair grade you would need to know the values of winning SS, MLS CUP, US Open Cup, CCL, and qualifying for the 2012-2013 CCL knockout stage. You’d also have to define the odds of winning each of those things before and after the trade. The front office may have the analytics to do so, but I sure don’t.
by arbeck77 on Feb 20, 2012 8:57 AM PST up reply actions 5 recs
Wow...I like that...
..sounds a lot better than “too many variables” heh
Follow me on twitter@PrixFixeOnline
Editor/Writer for Managing Madrid & Writer for Sounder At Heart
by Timm Higgins on Feb 20, 2012 9:07 AM PST up reply actions
can you come to vegas with me?
by chrisperry1983 on Feb 20, 2012 9:38 AM PST via mobile up reply actions 1 recs
I actually crush the low stakes poker tables in vegas
I’m a math guy by training. Unfortunately from re-reading that post, I should have taken a few more english classes.
We got the point
Very good analysis via analogy.
by chrisso on Feb 20, 2012 9:42 AM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Wow, poker is a great choice for results-based analysis.
I barely ever play, but just watching the odds on TV poker, this makes sense.
by yuniform on Feb 20, 2012 9:44 AM PST via Android app up reply actions
...tangent...Meamillions
If your odds are 1 in 175million and the pot hits 175M, it’s still a losing bet due to one-time-payout paydown and taxes. In order to get to the 1-1 (on jackpot only), it has to get to more like $300M…and that makes the HUGE assumption that you won’t have to split the pot (2 or more winners). Because there is no way to predict how many tickets will be sold, any attempt to find the true breakeven will only be a highly educated guess.
Go Sounders!
I actually figured it all out once
The break even point is something like 250 million when you start factoring in the odds of the smaller payouts (they improve your overall odds somewhat). There is also a strategy to avoid sharing payouts with others. (it’s pretty easy to avoid the most likely to be played combinations.
sounds interesting...although...
LOTS of people don’t pick their numbers…they just get random picks. There’s no way to predict those…but you could certainly decrease your odds of sharing a win by avoiding the obvious ones (like the numbers from LOST). I think I read somewhere about a prize that got split a bunch of ways because the numbers were on a full batch of fortune cookies.
I suspect our secret geekiness is why we love Dave Clark and his analysis so much…even though he is, at times, a gumpy Sounder.
You can never be 100% certain that you won't have duplicates
But the secret is to pick numbers that can’t be used as birth dates (pick numbers over 31), and pick patterns that the average person would never pick. For instance you could do something like picking all the numbers in the lower corner of the grid.
It's nice to see the Galaxy players having oodles of team-based loyalties.
Also, Gary Smith can go eat a bag of dicks.
I agree
As cool as it would be to have a superstar DP signing, having said player always having it in the back of their minds that they’re trying to get out to somewhere better would be really disappointing and hard to get behind.
by chrisperry1983 on Feb 20, 2012 9:37 AM PST via mobile up reply actions
Their fries and milkshakes are delicious too!
You will hear us on Brougham, you will hear us on Occidental, you will hear us on King. Our yachts are all around you, there is no escape.
Yes Chris Birchall, it's the time you spent in MLS that's the problem. Not you.
I mean after all, that’s been a huge hurdle for Clint Dempsey, Stuart Holden, Michael Bradley, Jozy Altidore and Tim Howard to overcome.
I think what he's saying is that foreign managers will overlook their impression of MLS for a great player
but not for someone merely average. So while an average MLSer is probably League One quality, they aren’t going to get a shot due to the stigma.
Probably quite similar to average players from Switzerland. They don’t get opportunities in equal leagues, but be amazing and you get to go the Netherlands.
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As a Clint Dempsey and Fulham Supporter
I think that it may have been a hurdle for Clint. It always seemed that Fulham managers just wouldn’t accept that Clint was a good player. Every new manager seemed to ignore him until he proved himself over again. I think if he had been born in London, that never would have happened.
I also think that if he had been born in London, he’d be one of the biggest stars in the EPL even if his performance was exactly the same as it is now.
I think most people overvalue their country's players a little bit
But the extent to which some Premier League teams economically overvalue the English-born player is something I can’t understand. 12 Million pounds for James Milner, 12 Million pounds for Garreth Barry, 20 Million (!!!) for Stewart Downing. I’m guessing for half that amount you could get Landon Donovan, who’s a better player. (Maybe Everton doesn’t have the money, but you get my point.)
by drax on Feb 20, 2012 3:18 PM PST up reply actions 1 recs
Except that Landon Donovan has had a total of what? 12 months of European soccer?
That might be a slight under counting, but to many European coaches Landon Donovan is a player who’s dropped by every once in a while and said hello. Maybe not necessarily someone you drop multiple millions on, even if he’s performed well in his recent visits. It would be different if he were Brazilian, Argentinian, or some other highly regarded nationality, but he’s not. Had he made a mark in Germany when he was younger, then that would be a different story too, but he didn’t.
I have a feeling Everton would drop multiple millions on him if they could afford it.
Or if MLS would allow him to leave.
by Aaron Campeau on Feb 20, 2012 4:02 PM PST up reply actions
I think if he really wanted to go MLS would let him
I think he’s made his choice. He’s comfortable in LA and doesn’t really want to go. At least not bad enough to push the issue.
That...pretty directly contradicts a lot of the evidence we've had in the past
by Aaron Campeau on Feb 20, 2012 4:29 PM PST up reply actions
Hmm. That's the impression I've gotten from him in the past.
I haven’t been following his career minutely though, so I could be wrong about his intentions. My sense was that he wasn’t really serious about forcing a move, that he’d take one if something came his way, but he wasn’t going to force the Galaxy or MLS’s hand in any way.
I think that might have been the case in the past, but his first loan spell with Everton changed things.
I also think Everton’s current financial situation makes the questions largely irrelevant, because MLS’ price tag would be out of range of what they’d be willing to pay.
But really, neither one of us have any idea. I could be 100% wrong just as easily as you could since neither of us have all of the information.
by Aaron Campeau on Feb 20, 2012 4:45 PM PST up reply actions

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