FanPost

Cascadia Cup Scenarios ahead of SEA vs POR 10/7

Thanks to cliffw for spotting an error in my original post calculating goal differential; his correction eliminates the need for more exotic tiebreakers in any scenario. Rather than striking through large chunks of some of the scenarios I will leave the original post below, as is, and summarize the correct possible outcomes here above the jump.

Things are much simpler than I made them out to be; looks like there are 4 main scenarios:

  • POR draw or win vs SEA (POR win the cupon overall CC points)
    POR lose to SEA, POR win over VAN (POR win the cupon overall CC points)
    POR lose to SEA and draw VAN (SEA/POR tied on overall CC points, tied on head-to-head CC points,SEA win the cupon head-to-head goal differential [even a one goal victory over POR gives SEA the edge])
    POR lose to SEA and VAN (SEA win the cupon overall CC points)

How these results would play with the supporters boils down to:

  • SEA really need all three points at home to improve table standing/playoff positioning, and at very least avoid letting POR clinch at CLink.
    POR fans need to hang their hat on something, they can clinch with a draw in SEA. If POR lose in SEA they'll have to win on the road (something they have yet to do this year) in VAN to hoist the cup.
    VAN has been eliminated from winning the Cup, they just need results to hang on to their playoff spot.

Original post follows after the jump, in all its erroneous glory...

My analysis of the scenarios for remaining games in Cascadia Cup (and my take on how those outcomes color the overall season outlook for the fans.) Did the best I could with formatting, please correct me if you spot an error, and add your thoughts on how you would feel about these scenarios.

Sounders draw or lose to Timbers. (Timbers win on overall CC points)

  • ECS presents the Cascadia Cup to the TA at CLink in front of the remnants of 67K+ legit sellout crowd. SSFC's road to the coveted 3rd playoff spot looks more difficult--human sacrifice, dogs and cats living together... mass hysteria!
  • TA ecstatic for at least a week and can then start dreaming of Porter era, put the year behind them and look forward to offseason player moves with a less bitter taste in their mouths.
  • ‘Caps fans shrug, look to hang on to 5th playoff spot.

Sounders beat Timbers by one goal; Timbers win rem

aining game against ‘Caps; or draw with 2 or more goals per side. (Timbers win on overall CC points, or overall CC goals tiebreaker in case of the draw)

  • ECS hands over the cup in BC, SSFC shot at 3rd playoff spot remains strong, life continues apace for Sounders fans.
  • Timbers fans have day in the sun, much the same as above scenario but not quite as sweet a victory without being able to stick it to Seattle in their house.
  • ‘Caps fans leery as team backs towards playoffs and their hopes may rest in great part on performance of Chivas USA--playing two of last three games of season against Dallas--sheesh.

[Ed note: as pointed out in the comments, this scenario would not actually come to pass because a Sounders win would be a 2 point swing in overall GD; this has been left for the curious] Sounders beat Portland by one goal, Portland draws Vancouver 1-1; the most complex scenario SSFC is now tied with Portland on overall points, head to head points, head to head goal difference, overall CC goal difference, and overall CC goals scored, it all comes down to overall CC disciplinary points... groan. Portland currently has 1 less disciplinary point than Seattle with 2 matches to play, Seattle has just the one match to play (see table at bottom for more details.) I hope it doesn't come down to this, and I really hope we don't end up with a tie in disciplinary points--not sure if it the two sides would share the cup (maybe supporters of a Centralia-area team holds on to the cup for a year?) or flip a coin...

double groan.

  • if TA gains the cup, same as above scenario; if ECS retains cup on disciplinary points many lulz, Monday Night Football all over again.
  • if TA gains the cup, same as above scenario; if ECS retains cup on disciplinary points very long drive from VAN to PDX for the TA. TA go home and cry in their delicious, delicious PDX beers.
  • As usual in these scenarios (and I imagine in most life scenarios our neighbors to the north face) ‘Caps fans mildly bemused/amused.

Sounders beat Portland by one goal, Portland loses or draws 0-0 to Vancouver. (Sounders win on overall CC points, or overall CC goals tiebreaker in case of the draw.)

  • ECS relieved, drive back to Seattle with Cup
  • another long drive back to PDX
  • mild bemusement

Sounders beat Portland by two or more goals, Portland loses or draws Vancouver with any amount of goals.(Sounders win on overall CC points, or overall CC goals tiebreaker in case of the draw.)

  • see above
  • see above
  • see above

THE DATA


Taken from the Wikipeda page, as the official Cascadia Cup page is down todayhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cascadia_Cup

Team Pts Pld W L D GF GA GD
Portland Timbers 8 4 2 0 2 6 4 +2
Seattle Sounders FC 6 5 1 1 3
6 5 +1
Vancouver Whitecaps FC 3 5 0 2 3
4 7 -3


The winner each year is decided by these criteria, in order:

  • Greater number of points in all Cascadia Cup matches.
  • Greater number of points earned in matches between teams tied on points.
  • Greater goal difference in matches between teams tied on points.
  • Greater number of goals scored in matches between teams tied on points.
  • Reapply previous three criteria if two or more teams are still tied.
  • Greater goal difference in all Cascadia Cup matches.
  • Greater number of goals scored in all Cascadia Cup matches.
  • Smaller number of disciplinary points in all Cascadia Cup matches (yellow = 1 point, red = 2 points).

Disciplinary points in CC matches; taken from my analysis of MLSsoccer.com match results, yellows, reds, total points:

5/19

5/26

6/24

8/18

8/25

9/15

9/29

10/7

10/21

current total

POR

X

1 Y 0 R

1

4 Y 1 R

6

X

0 Y 0 R

0

0 Y 0 R

0

X

?

?

7

SEA

0 Y 0 R

0

X

2 Y 1 R

4

1 Y 0 R

1

X

2 Y 0 R

2

1 Y 0 R

1

?

X

8

VAN

2 Y 0 R

2

3 Y 0 R

3

X

1 Y 0 R

1

2 Y 1 R

4

X

1 Y 0 R

1

X

?

11

Follow me on Twitter @TacosAndHaircut

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