MLS Draft 2014: Mock Draft Average Draft Position

Hey, Portland Coach, keep going back. Nope, I can still see you. Back up more. - Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Mock drafts are fickle and rarely accurate. When comparing a mock draft to the results of an actual draft, sometimes it's downright laughable. Perhaps instead the goal is to predict players to be drafted in a particular range, and when they fall into that range, then we can claim that mock draft a success.

There are a lot of mock drafts out there, some good, some bad, and some by Simon Borg. As Jeremiah pointed out in his Sounders Mock-Draft Roundup, their respective picks are all over the board. For example, take Aodhan Quinn, Soccer by Ives has him being picked 37th overall, whereas Top Draw Soccer has him being picked by the Timbers at 17. That’s a pretty big range.

So what I’ve done is compiled the picks from various sites, including SBN, MLSsoccer.com, Soccer by Ives, Top Drawer Soccer, and Bleacher Report. Standard mock draft caveats apply, but I wanted to get an idea of the Average Draft Position (ADP) of these future MLS players.

Team Draft Position Player ADP
DC United 1 Steve Birnbaum 1.9
Philadelphia Union 2 Christian Dean 2.3
Vancouver Whitecaps 3 Andre Blake 3.6
Columbus Crew 4 Patrick Mullins 5.7
FC Dallas 5 Schillo Tshuma 6.7
Philadelphia Union 6 Marlon Hairston 7.3
Vancouver Whitecaps 7 AJ Cochran 7.4
Chicago Fire 8 Eric Miller 8.1
San Jose Earthquakes 9 Steve Neumann 9.1
Montreal Impact 10 Pedro Ribeiro 9.9
Colorado Rapids 11 Damion Lowe 12.8
New England Revolution 12 Ben Sweat 13.4
Seattle Sounders 13 JJ Koval 14.6
LA Galaxy 14 Kevin Cope 15.7
Toronto FC 15 Marco Franco 16.8
Houston Dynamo 16 Kyle Venter 17.0
Portland Timbers 17 Jared Watts 17.1
Real Salt Lake 18 Grant Van de Casteele 18.4
New England Revolution 19 Mamadou Diouf 18.5

Caveats

  • Small Sample Size - only 7 mocks included
  • The MLSsoccer.com and Bleacher Report mocks only included the first round.
  • Players had to appear in at least three mock drafts to be included. For example, Cyle Larin had been mocked at No. 5, but he only appeared on one draft, which would give him an ADP of 5.0 with a sample size of 1.
So you can see in the table above that there are 19 players in the first round, and all of these players have an ADP < 19. There’s no consideration about player types or positions, so this isn’t to suggest that this is where each player will go, just where each player’s perceived value stands. If the Columbus Crew drafts Pedro Ribeiro at No. 4, the ADP would indicate that’s an overdraft. But if he falls to the Sounders at No. 13, that’s a value pick; spending fewer resources to acquire the same player who’s valued at No. 10.

Mocked to be drafted by Seattle Sounders at pick No. 13

  • Schillo Tshuma - ADP 6.4 - Low Pick of 4 - High Pick of 13
  • Ben Sweat - ADP 13.4 - Low Pick of 9 - High Pick of 18
  • J.J. Koval - ADP 14.6 - Low Pick of 8 - High Pick of 28
  • Joey Dillon - ADP 19.4 - Low Pick of 13 - High Pick of 28
  • Aohdan Quinn - ADP 21.0 - Low Pick of 13 - High Pick of 37
  • Nikita Kotlov - ADP 21.7 - Low Pick of 13 - High Pick of 30

Players of Note

  • Grant Van de Casteele has the largest disparity between mock drafts of 27 picks.
  • Taylor Peay - ADP of 28.0
  • Cyle Larin - He has been rumored to be a top 5 pick if he declares from UConn. This would push all subsequent players down one spot.
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