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Major League Soccer

Statistics Update, Battle for Depth in Sounders Rotation

So we know the record of the team (4 wins, 3 losses, 1 draw including the two "reserve" matches). It isn't great, nor does it suck. Over a 30 game season it would mean a MUCH worse defense, a slightly better offense and 48 points on the table.

But MLSpreseason isn't about records, is any preseason? It is about competition for roster slots, for playing time/depth andhere's where what little statistics we have can give us a slightly better idea of what's going on with the team.

Currently I see the competition on offense being for who starts while Jaqua is out (likely at Right Wing), who is the 3rd Center Mid (or 2nd for Match One) and a big old cluster of defenders trying to round out the squad. I'm going to ignore developmental vs senior status on these charts. The upcoming CBA with roster rules and new salary cap are unknowable, but I also must assume that there will eventually be a season.

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The Recession Killed Profits in MLS


So we all know the Forbes study about 2007. We should all know that it did not include the money from Soccer United Marketing. SUM makes a lot of money. That will be true in recession or not, but recently the Timbers had to publicly declare how they as an MLS side would make money and pay back the city for all those great tax breaks, etc.

Let's first look at 2007 though - only 3 teams were "profitable" without SUM money.

THREE - Los Angeles, Toronto and Dallas. One could argue that with SUM money that another 3-6 clubs likely made money in that single year. At least it could be argued. Let's also remember that sports teams almost never make money on a year-to-year basis, but instead are like real estate, and have annual costs past their income, but when sold makes the owner some bank. This is true for all but the top 10% of teams in pretty much any league in the world.

But since 2007 the world has changed. Iceland nearly doesn't exist as a financial entity. Governments in most democracies have changed their ruling party. The WORLD has reached a Recession nearing on depression. How did that hit MLS?

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29 comments  |  1 recs |

CBA Update: Talks continue

You may have heard that the players have overwhelmingly voted to strike, according to Steven Goff.

Well, he's updated the story to reflect comments from MLS officials.

In response to comments made by players after the labor negotiations in Washington this week, MLS President Mark Abbott told the Insider on Thursday that "the meetings were productive and we have scheduled a number of additional meetings. While I can't discuss what takes place across the bargaining table, I can say that the players' comments do not accurately reflect the proposals that we have made to address the players' concerns or the productive nature of the discussions between MLS and the union."

Apparently, as part of the mediation agreement, neither side was supposed to be talking to the media. The players are obviously trying to apply as much pressure as possible. And as long as the mediation is ongoing, both sides are barred from calling a work stoppage.

The two sides are scheduled to meet next week, so there probably won't be any big news over the weekend.

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Nkufo has serious pedigree

Blaise Nkufo might be the best pure scorer to ever join Major League Soccer.

I realize that's a bold statement, but you should know that it's not just homerism taken to hyperbolic extremes.

Since Nkufo's signing, I've been trying to figure out a reasonable way to set expectations for a soon-to-be 35-year-old player most casual fans have never heard of and won't be joining the team until after the World Cup.

What I found was somewhat startling, even in light of everything I've read about him in the past few days. Not only is Nkufo one of the most prolific goal scorers (on a per-game basis) to come to MLS from a foreign first-division league, but he does so in the midst of a four-season stretch in which he's averaged more than a goal every other game in league matches. Based on what other similar -- and perhaps lesser -- players accomplished in their first seasons in MLS, it's perfectly reasonable to expect six to nine goals and a few assists despite the fact that he'll miss half the Sounders' regular season games. 

In other words, it wouldn't be crazy to expect him to be the team's top scoring threat, or even one of the best goal scorers in the league.

Poll
What's your best prediction for Nkufo's production?

  139 votes | Results

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16 comments  |  2 recs |

Jaqua not ineffecient use of money

The Blaise Nkufo signing has people judging the merits of Nate Jaqua. He's been considered a failure despite putting up solid Goal and Assist numbers in the league. He was one of the best second forwards in the League last year by these measures, and when adjusted for a rate stat, he remains in the top.

Today I saw a new argument, that he was just too inefficient a use of the 208k that he made, so I added in salary to my PP90 number and valued each player by Points Per 90 per 100k of salary. This makes it a double rate, because I'm lazy I only did it for the players last year who will be in the league this year, and who made more than 200k. That made it only 27 players, we are missing Blanco, Vitti and Huckerby, but Jaqua was certainly better than all but Blanco, and rolly-polly made a ton of money, so it would be close.

Guess what? Nate Jaqua was 3rd. Yep, THIRD. Its a rate stat people. He scored goals, got assists. He was efficient, and of the high priced players he performed. Oh, and he really wanted to play in Seattle. Sure, he wasn't pretty, and he certainly isn't a classic Target Forward. But only Jeff Cunningham and Conor Casey were better values amongst the "rich" MLS players. The poor man's Brian Ching (that's Jaqua), just edged out Brian Ching. Go to the bottom of the list and you'll find the DPs.

Full Chart below the Jump

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Blaise Nkufo joining Sounders in 4 months

Nkufomug_medium First, Blaise mentioned that one of the things he and Kasey talked about back in December was that the team went through a scoring drought. The Sounders know this, and as of today, they are addressing it. This summer in the secondary window they will add a player with over 200 goals in his long career. Yes, he will have tired legs, but he has the strength and fitness that should minimize the impact.

 

There are two impacts to this signing that I see.

First is roster math, and second is the depth chart.

Adrian noted that part of the advantage of having Blaise come to the team in July during the secondary window is that it will give the team plenty of time to figure out how to fit him onto the squad under whatever rules are needed. While it did come out that Nkufo is on an 18 Month plus 1 Year Option contract, it was not stated that he is/isn't a DP.

In fact it was stated that they will be creative in the financials on the deal bringing him on for the lowest cap number they can under whatever cap rules are agreed upon between the League and Union. It could be as a DP, or a just a contract with a lot of allocation. That's a fun little advantage to the Secondary Window and the lack of CBA. Find a player who wants to live and work here, and just "make it work"

The depth chart on the other hand gets complex, but also delayed.

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"Major Announcement" Open Thread

Speculate for the next hour or so. Again, I will be tweegting updates, and we'll see what else I can get out.

Be a community and talk amongst yourselves.

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Pulling back the curtain on player acquisitions

One of the more notable additions to Major League Soccer this offseason was undoubtedly the signing of teen-standout Luis Gil.

What should have been seen as a coup for MLS -- and Real Salt Lake which ultimately ended up with his services --was instead viewed by many detractors as yet another example of the league's insistence on rigging the rules however it sees fit.

Whether or not that viewpoint is fair somewhat misses the point. The reality is that most casual MLS fans -- and even many seasoned observers -- don't understand how front offices go about building their teams. 

The league's website provides Rules and Regulations, but even that needs a fair amount of explanation. (Although a new CBA could change some things -- players are pushing for less restrictive rules in regards to those who are "out of contract" -- most of that language will remain intact.)

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Sounder at Heart is a blog about the Seattle Sounders FC, with occasional forays into Democracy in Sports, Roster Management, Soccer Statistics and Life in Puget Sound.
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