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Hunt for Shield and Playoffs

With the conclusion of the Crew at Fire and their two-two draw there is another round down. The playoff race is much less clear than Sounders fans would hope. Crew fans though likely are enjoying their shot at getting a second Shield in a row.

First the hunt for the next domestic trophy, the Supporters' Shield. I have taken a more gritty look at home/away performance, and applied the strength of schedule of remaining opponents at home/away and applied those directly. Call it an advanced pacing standings.

Columbus - 50 (they have 3rd toughest home schedule but do have 3 matches - road for them is 7th with 2 matches)
Chivas - 50 (11th toughest home stretch and 4 games - road is 10th toughest with 2 games)

Sitting just three expected points back are Chicago, Houston and Los Angeles. Many of those five teams competing for the Shield play each other a few times. So it is really up in the air. While none have a lock on the playoffs yet, all should be fairly set barring a significant collapse.

The final three playoff spots see Colorado with a fairly certain lock, though without a strong chance at home-field. Their advanced pacing is at 46 points.

While Sounders are on the road it is the 9th toughest road schedule, and their home game left is the 12th toughest. This puts them at 44 points. United have an easy go both at home and away for advanced pacing at 45.

The threats to break into the final spots and challenge either Seattle or DC United for the 8th seed are Toronto (43), New England (42) and Salt Lake (42).

If Kansas City or Dallas go on a huge run they stand a chance, but very little this year has indicated that they are good enough to do so.

San Jose has nearly locked up the #3 draft pick.

Red Bull would be relegated but MLS doesn't do it, and honestly the USSF division 2 is in turmoil right now. Here's a hint to the Red Bull front office; there's no point in sucking in an expansion year. The number two pick isn't worth it.

Philadelphia could probably beat New York right now.

Seattle fans, not only do you have to watch that scoreboard, but getting six points against the Revolution and the Hoops pretty much gets a chance at the MLS Cup.

Full data available, working on formatting

Team PPM H PPM A Final Home SOS # Home Away SOS # Away Exp Remaining Current Points Final?
Columbus 2.33 1.15 52.3 1.31 3 1.83 2 7.39 43 50.4
Houston 2.15 1.07 48.4 1.42 2 2.27 1 3.88 43 46.9
Chivas 2.27 0.92 47.9 0.63 4 1.61 2 12.27 37 49.3
LA 1.46 1.69 47.3 0.98 2 2.24 2 5.54 41 46.5
Chicago 1.31 1.77 46.2 0.85 2 1.61 2 7.10 40 47.1
Colorado 2.08 0.83 43.7 0.64 2 1.61 3 8.88 37 45.9
Seattle 1.71 1.17 43.2 0.62 1 1.78 3 6.05 38 44.1
DC 1.92 0.93 42.7 0.76 3 1.25 1 8.47 36 44.5
New England 1.75 1.08 42.5 1.36 3 2.00 3 7.92 34 41.9
Salt Lake 2.00 0.62 39.2 0.46 2 1.71 2 7.65 34 41.7
Toronto 1.85 0.77 39.2 0.41 2 1.23 2 8.73 34 42.7
Kansas City 1.25 1.15 36.1 0.98 3 2.21 2 7.64 30 37.6
Dallas 1.58 0.62 33.0 0.84 3 1.59 2 9.29 27 36.3
San Jose 1.46 0.20 24.9 0.35 2 1.91 5 10.73 21 31.7
New York 1.14 0.08 18.4 0.77 1 1.91 3 5.50 17 22.5