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Size Matters

Sample size that is. In soccer statistics this shows up in several ways.

1 - there are so few significant events that the correlation and accuracy of the statistics will never be where they are for baseball, or really any of the American sports. It will ever only be close with correlations in the 80s, rather than upper 90s. This means that it is better to pay attention to the statistics than ignore them, but they are a guide.

2 - Two games does not make greatness. Seriously. Roger Levesque is on a tear. He is certainly earning more playing time, but the idea that he is a better player than Montero is laughable. Unless you think that talent evaluators in MLS and the EPL are idiots. Levesque is working his way up from being a fringe MLS talent as a Reserve to now being an obvious Rotational player. Building that depth will be vital for next year with the extra matches that are possible. That does not mean that Levesque should start over Montero in the first leg of the MLS Cup Playoffs though.

3 - Thirty games changes how teams are viewed. It changes their appearance of strength. But let's look at something, the English Championship (because it doesn't have the Big Four issue, and is only slightly better than MLS) vs Major League Soccer in Points Per Match.

Best Team in the last full Championship Season was Wolverhampton with 1.95 PPM. Sheffield Wednesday was a middle table club with 1.33 PPM and the worst team Charlton Athletic with 0.85 PPM.

For MLS the Crew are at 1.69, the clubs tied at the final playoff spot are at 1.34 and Red Bull is at 0.62.

While the Championship race for first didn't seem nearly as tight, mostly that was an impression based off of the much longer season of 46 matches v the 30 of MLS.

4 - One good offensive performance does not mean the offensive woes have been solved. Most already know this, but the Sounders are at 10th offensively and 3rd defensively at this point. They are up to 10th in shots and 15th in shots on goal (the league says that hitting the crossbar is not a SoG, nor is a blocked shot). When they speak of all the good chances they get, remember that they are 15th in a 15 team league in Shots on Goal.

Not about size:

The West still is kicking the East's ass and has a shot at getting 6 teams into the 8 team Playoffs. Even without extra matches v. the crappy Red Bull squad. West is at 1.48 PPM (44pts in 30) and +29 Goal Differential.

FC Dallas is undefeated in their last four. While I don't bring that up due to their form, I bring it up because since Cunningham became a starter they are damn good.

Statistics tables to below the break


The following players enter into the realm of the point of Sigi's Arrow - Montero, Ljungberg, Jaqua, Zakuani, Le Toux and Levesque. It is now obvious that only four start there, that there is no CAM, and at best the other central midfielder will be a box-to-box man.

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