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Sounders 2010 Trendline

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So to discover this trendline I've gone back and created from memory, reports on this site and reports at MLSscoccer.com judgements of the performance of the club by half. Each performance was placed onto a scale of between zero and three, and was judged as whether a team "deserved" to win that 45 minute period of time. I used 2 as a way to credit a performance that was good (but gave up multiple goals) or that was better than a tie, but not "deserving" of a win.

This method is not scientific, but in the future I plan on offering the readers a vote, as I think that crowd-sourcing should strengthen this measurement. I basically want to be able to see if there is a trend of improvement, stability or decline that is INDEPENDENT of the score.

Working backwards is certainly not the best way to do it, but it is the method that we have as I made a decision to do this recently, not at the beginning of the year. We will keep this up and maybe we can discover certain trends, possibly connecting them to player or formation shifts.  Oddly the initial data shows that Seattle "deserved" a total of 12 points at this point in the year. Considering the odd call in Dallas and the stoppage time gaffs that feels like a fair estimate of true talent on the team.

That would only have the Sounders as 6th best team. Not great, barely even good. It would put them with Houston, Salt Lake and Colorado. Luck, bad breaks, and silly mental errors have Seattle in that stellar 13th place though. This passes the smell test. The Sounders really are a few moments of stoppage time from being a much better team.

Let's look at a graph with each half to this point rated as a separate event.Sounders_half_by_half_3_medium

The team has yet to play a complete game where they have dominated both halves. They did match up a good 2nd half against Dallas with a good first half against Toronto, and after the second half against the Reds had that great half against the Crew.

But can we really say that the Sounders are trending down for the season? I don't know that I see that. Then again, I'm the one that did the ratings.