Everyone who loves stats knows of Nate Silver. Be it his work at Baseball Prospectus, FiveThirtyEight, or at ESPN with Soccer Power Index. He's a man known for statistical analysis. Well, he's applied his methodology for the SPI to the World Cup, and now in his sidebar at 538.com is updating for the results after each day's matches.
Right now, the USA has an 11.4% chance of making the Semi-Finals. Brazil currently sits at the best chance to win the Cup with a 23.54%. Silver's method has the USA as one of 16 nations with a 10% chance or better at the Semis.
ESPN and EA sports are predicting a 2-nil win for the USA. While a win is important, and I'd find that result pleasing. I just am so used to disappoint I won't be confident until Friday, and the final whistle.