clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

CONCACAF Champions League Set - Strength of Schedule

New, 8 comments

With Toronto FC winning the Voyageurs Cup yesterday after their victory over struggling Vancouver Whitecaps FC the CONCACAF Champions League 2011-2012 competition is finally set. While it has been known for sometime that the Seattle Sounders would face San Fransisco FC of Panama for some time (season ticket holders currently able to buy seats, public on July 6th), the full slate of teams let's us play with some math and figure out which MLS side has the most difficult road out of the Group Stage.

Using the coefficients from Soccermetrics we can estimate the strength of schedule. Last year using this method it showed that Seattle had the hardest road out of the Groups of any MLS team, and was in the Group of Death. There are a few tweaks to the methodology this year in order to improve things a bit. First, for any team that has no coefficient due to lack of entry in the last five seasons their national coefficient was used a place holder as an rough representation of their qualification over other teams from their league. Second, is the inclusion of strength of schedule if favorites advance past the Preliminary Round in every circumstance, because honest the FMF teams are going to advance. For teams in the Prelims their opposition in that round and the Groups are included, because they have to win to make the Groups.

Here's the MLS teams only. Note that the Sounders have the most difficult path by average of other prelims, but not by favorites advancing. If favorites advance they have the second toughest route after the Colorado Rapids who are in the same group as Santos Laguna and the Puerto Rico Islanders. The Los Angeles Galaxy have the easiest path as Morelia of Mexico has not appeared in the tourney yet, but if Morelia is an average FMF side in this tourney it is actually Toronto FC that has the easiest path by both measures. Group B is this year's Group of Death.

MLS Team Str of Schedule If Favored
Seattle Sounders 96.252 100.689
FC Dallas 90.595 97.251
Toronto FC 85.702 87.464
Colorado Rapids 84.939 117.876
LA Galaxy 36.488 47.863

After the break is all data by Group.

Group A Coeffecient Str of Schedule If Favored
Los Angeles Galaxy 15.500 36.488 47.863
Alajuelense (CRC) 9.875 42.113 53.488
Motagua 14.813 55.238 63.363
Municiapl 21.313 48.738 56.863
Morelia 16.675 43.863 47.113
Tempete 0.425 60.113 63.363
47.759 55.342
Group B
Colorado Rapids 6.900 84.939 117.876
Real Espana (HON) 17.813 74.026 106.963
Santos Laguna 63.688 74.401 89.901
Olimpia 28.813 109.276 124.776
Metapan 5.375 107.339 124.776
Puerto Rico Islanders 36.375 76.339 93.776
87.720 109.678
Group C
UNAM 65.688 26.670 35.088
Tauro (PAN) 14.813 77.545 85.963
Alianza 3.375 94.120 100.776
FC Dallas 6.900 90.595 97.251
Toronto FC 13.375 85.702 87.464
Real Esteli 0.063 99.014 100.776
78.941 84.553
Group D
Monterrey 64.688 34.907 42.688
Comunicaciones (GUA) 16.313 83.282 91.063
San Fransisco FC 10.813 102.939 107.376
Seattle Sounders 17.500 96.252 100.689
Herediano 8.875 95.158 98.501
Alpha United 0.000 104.033 107.376
86.095 91.282