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State of the MLS Run In: 9 Weeks To Go

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As the regular season winds down I'm going to be posting a weekly summary of the some of the data and predictions we're generating, which should give you some context going into each week of games.

Playoff & Trophy Probabilities

This is each team's up to date odds of making the playoffs, winning the Supporter's Shield, and winning the MLS Cup based on simulating the remainder of the season 10000 times.

Avg Pos Avg Points Playoff % Supporters
Shield %
MLS Cup %
Los Angeles 1.19 63.99 100.0 85.0 22.0
Seattle 2.74 57.85 100.0 10.7 12.6
FC Dallas 4.14 54.74 99.7 1.58 9.58
Columbus 4.99 52.96 98.62 1.16 12.78
Colorado 5.72 51.61 98.31 0.46 7.88
Real Salt Lake 6.10 50.69 94.93 0.84 5.11
Kansas City 6.55 50.08 93.3 0.18 11.06
Philadelphia 8.00 47.71 81.57 0.08 6.9
DC United 9.54 45.57 60.26 0.0 4.53
Houston 10.04 44.79 54.85 0.0 2.51
New York 10.09 44.21 53.19 0.0 2.8
Chivas USA 10.17 44.11 51.36 0.0 2.15
Portland 12.65 40.16 11.65 0.0 0.08
Chicago 14.42 35.66 1.6 0.0 0.06
San Jose 15.00 34.62 0.64 0.0 0.01
New England 15.90 32.33 0.03 0.0 0.0
Toronto FC 16.40 31.45 0.0 0.0 0.0
Vancouver 17.37 27.93 0.0 0.0 0.0
Avg Pts for Playoffs 44.4535

Teams Eliminated

Teams that have been eliminated by three decreasingly stringent standards. Read here for more details.

  • Mathematical Elimination (Unable to make the playoffs in any scenario)
    None
  • Effective Elimination (Unable to make 40 points even with perfect play)
    None
  • Projected Elimination (less than 1% chance of making the playoffs in simulation)
    San Jose, New England, Toronto FC, Vancouver

Remaining Strength of Schedule

Using the same simulation, we can also determine remaining schedule strength by seeing how a league average team would do with each team's remaining schedule. Teams at the top have schedules against which an average team got the most PPG, meaning we think they have the easiest remaining schedule.

Avg Team Points Matches Pts / Match
Seattle 12.064 8 1.508
New York 11.769 8 1.471
Kansas City 12.998 9 1.444
Toronto FC 9.995 7 1.428
FC Dallas 11.258 8 1.407
Vancouver 12.611 9 1.401
Colorado 9.796 7 1.399
Portland 12.585 9 1.398
New England 11.115 8 1.389
DC United 13.846 10 1.385
Chicago 12.423 9 1.38
Chivas USA 12.316 9 1.368
Columbus 12.24 9 1.36
Philadelphia 13.583 10 1.358
Los Angeles 10.632 8 1.329
Real Salt Lake 14.082 11 1.28
San Jose 11.494 9 1.277
Houston 10.061 8 1.258

Seattle's First Round Opponent

This is the likelihood of each team being the first playoff opponent for Seattle (either in the preliminary round or — more likely — in the Conference Semifinals).

Matchup %
FC Dallas 44.4%
Colorado 20.0%
Real Salt Lake 16.8%
Chivas USA 4.5%
New York 2.5%
Houston 2.4%
DC United 2.4%
Los Angeles 2.0%
Philadelphia 1.9%
Kansas City 1.4%
Portland 1.0%