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State of the MLS Run In: 8 Weeks To Go

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As the regular season winds down I'm going to be posting a weekly summary of the some of the data and predictions we're generating, which should give you some context going into each week of games.

Previous Week

Playoff & Trophy Probabilities

This is each team's up to date odds of making the playoffs, winning the Supporter's Shield, and winning the MLS Cup based on simulating the remainder of the season 10000 times.

Avg Pos Avg Points Playoff % Change Supporters
Shield %
MLS Cup %
Los Angeles 1.30 64.01 100.0 -- 77.28 21.12
Seattle 2.37 59.25 100.0 -- 16.63 13.40
FC Dallas 3.28 56.90 100.0 +0.3 3.74 11.21
Real Salt Lake 4.69 53.23 99.21 +4.28 1.92 7.53
Columbus 5.65 51.83 98.8 +0.18 0.24 12.37
Colorado 6.63 49.76 97.54 -0.77 0.03 4.81
Kansas City 7.45 48.20 89.65 -3.65 0.05 9.71
Philadelphia 7.58 47.97 86.89 +5.32 0.10 7.75
DC United 9.32 45.45 66.33 +6.07 0.01 5.77
New York 9.84 44.09 60.35 +7.16 0.0 3.38
Houston 10.43 43.51 49.08 -5.77 0.0 1.71
Portland 11.82 41.60 23.91 +12.36 0.0 0.27
Chivas USA 12.02 40.50 21.06 -30.30 0.0 0.69
Chicago 13.54 37.77 6.19 +4.59 0.0 0.28
San Jose 15.11 34.67 0.90 +0.27 0.0 0.01
New England 16.12 32.18 0.07 +0.04 0.0 0.0
Toronto FC 16.83 30.86 0.0 -- 0.0 0.0
Vancouver 17.03 29.75 0.0 -- 0.0 0.0
Avg Pts for Playoffs 43.76

Teams Eliminated

Teams that have been eliminated by three decreasingly stringent standards. Read here for more details.

  • Mathematical Elimination (Unable to make the playoffs in any scenario)
    None
  • Effective Elimination (Unable to make 40 points even with perfect play)
    None
  • Projected Elimination (less than 1% chance of making the playoffs in simulation)
    San Jose, New England, Toronto FC, Vancouver

Remaining Strength of Schedule

Using the same simulation, we can also determine remaining schedule strength by seeing how a league average team would do with each team's remaining schedule. Teams at the top have schedules against which an average team got the most PPG, meaning we think they have the easiest remaining schedule.

Avg Team Points Matches Pts / Match
Seattle 10.297 7 1.471
New York 11.725 8 1.466
FC Dallas 10.244 7 1.463
Kansas City 11.458 8 1.432
Colorado 8.38 6 1.397
Columbus 11.163 8 1.395
DC United 13.79 10 1.379
Philadelphia 13.754 10 1.375
Portland 10.963 8 1.37
Chicago 10.918 8 1.365
Toronto FC 8.181 6 1.363
New England 10.908 8 1.363
Chivas USA 9.457 7 1.351
Vancouver 10.785 8 1.348
Los Angeles 10.712 8 1.339
Real Salt Lake 13.04 10 1.304
San Jose 10.243 8 1.28
Houston 8.815 7 1.259

Seattle's First Round Opponent

This is the likelihood of each team being the first playoff opponent for Seattle (either in the preliminary round or — more likely — in the Conference Semifinals).

Matchup %
FC Dallas 50.1%
Real Salt Lake 18.9%
Colorado 11.0%
Los Angeles 4.0%
DC United 2.7%
Houston 2.7%
New York 2.5%
Portland 1.9%
Philadelphia 1.9%
Chivas USA 1.8%
Kansas City 1.7%

Cascadia Cup Odds

This is the % chance for each of the Cascadia teams of winning the rivalry cup.

Odds
Seattle 65.22
Portland 19.08
Vancouver 15.70