As the regular season winds down I'm going to be posting a weekly summary of the some of the data and predictions we're generating, which should give you some context going into each week of games.
Playoff & Trophy Probabilities
This is each team's up to date odds of making the playoffs, winning the Supporter's Shield, and winning the MLS Cup based on simulating the remainder of the season 10000 times.
| Avg Pos | Avg Points | Playoff % | Change | Supporters Shield % |
MLS Cup % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles | 1.30 | 64.01 | 100.0 | -- | 77.28 | 21.12 |
| Seattle | 2.37 | 59.25 | 100.0 | -- | 16.63 | 13.40 |
| FC Dallas | 3.28 | 56.90 | 100.0 | +0.3 | 3.74 | 11.21 |
| Real Salt Lake | 4.69 | 53.23 | 99.21 | +4.28 | 1.92 | 7.53 |
| Columbus | 5.65 | 51.83 | 98.8 | +0.18 | 0.24 | 12.37 |
| Colorado | 6.63 | 49.76 | 97.54 | -0.77 | 0.03 | 4.81 |
| Kansas City | 7.45 | 48.20 | 89.65 | -3.65 | 0.05 | 9.71 |
| Philadelphia | 7.58 | 47.97 | 86.89 | +5.32 | 0.10 | 7.75 |
| DC United | 9.32 | 45.45 | 66.33 | +6.07 | 0.01 | 5.77 |
| New York | 9.84 | 44.09 | 60.35 | +7.16 | 0.0 | 3.38 |
| Houston | 10.43 | 43.51 | 49.08 | -5.77 | 0.0 | 1.71 |
| Portland | 11.82 | 41.60 | 23.91 | +12.36 | 0.0 | 0.27 |
| Chivas USA | 12.02 | 40.50 | 21.06 | -30.30 | 0.0 | 0.69 |
| Chicago | 13.54 | 37.77 | 6.19 | +4.59 | 0.0 | 0.28 |
| San Jose | 15.11 | 34.67 | 0.90 | +0.27 | 0.0 | 0.01 |
| New England | 16.12 | 32.18 | 0.07 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Toronto FC | 16.83 | 30.86 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Vancouver | 17.03 | 29.75 | 0.0 | -- | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Avg Pts for Playoffs | 43.76 | |||||
Teams Eliminated
Teams that have been eliminated by three decreasingly stringent standards. Read here for more details.
-
Mathematical Elimination (Unable to make the playoffs in any scenario)
None -
Effective Elimination (Unable to make 40 points even with perfect play)
None -
Projected Elimination (less than 1% chance of making the playoffs in simulation)
San Jose, New England, Toronto FC, Vancouver
Remaining Strength of Schedule
Using the same simulation, we can also determine remaining schedule strength by seeing how a league average team would do with each team's remaining schedule. Teams at the top have schedules against which an average team got the most PPG, meaning we think they have the easiest remaining schedule.
| Avg Team Points | Matches | Pts / Match | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle | 10.297 | 7 | 1.471 |
| New York | 11.725 | 8 | 1.466 |
| FC Dallas | 10.244 | 7 | 1.463 |
| Kansas City | 11.458 | 8 | 1.432 |
| Colorado | 8.38 | 6 | 1.397 |
| Columbus | 11.163 | 8 | 1.395 |
| DC United | 13.79 | 10 | 1.379 |
| Philadelphia | 13.754 | 10 | 1.375 |
| Portland | 10.963 | 8 | 1.37 |
| Chicago | 10.918 | 8 | 1.365 |
| Toronto FC | 8.181 | 6 | 1.363 |
| New England | 10.908 | 8 | 1.363 |
| Chivas USA | 9.457 | 7 | 1.351 |
| Vancouver | 10.785 | 8 | 1.348 |
| Los Angeles | 10.712 | 8 | 1.339 |
| Real Salt Lake | 13.04 | 10 | 1.304 |
| San Jose | 10.243 | 8 | 1.28 |
| Houston | 8.815 | 7 | 1.259 |
Seattle's First Round Opponent
This is the likelihood of each team being the first playoff opponent for Seattle (either in the preliminary round or — more likely — in the Conference Semifinals).
| Matchup % | |
|---|---|
| FC Dallas | 50.1% |
| Real Salt Lake | 18.9% |
| Colorado | 11.0% |
| Los Angeles | 4.0% |
| DC United | 2.7% |
| Houston | 2.7% |
| New York | 2.5% |
| Portland | 1.9% |
| Philadelphia | 1.9% |
| Chivas USA | 1.8% |
| Kansas City | 1.7% |
Cascadia Cup Odds
This is the % chance for each of the Cascadia teams of winning the rivalry cup.
| Odds | |
|---|---|
| Seattle | 65.22 |
| Portland | 19.08 |
| Vancouver | 15.70 |