ESPN’s Paul Carr tweeted out that the latest Soccer Power Index (SPI) has Toronto FC as the favorites to win MLS Cup. That result should not shock you. They list Toronto as a 63% favorite to beat the Seattle Sounders on Dec. 10 at BMO Field.
Imagine that; a home team that is favored to win at home. Who would have thought? The Sounders would have been a 60% favorite if the game was being played at CenturyLink Field.
Playing at home, Toronto FC is the SPI favorite to win MLS Cup. Seattle would have been a 60% favorite at home. pic.twitter.com/5QBg8EtlQO— Paul Carr (@PCarrESPN) December 2, 2016
It should be noted that when Carr was asked if the Sounders 60% at home was against Toronto of Montreal, he said it was against the Reds. If Montreal was in the final, the Sounders would have been favored a little higher.
Counting playoffs, Toronto is 11-3-6 (W-L-T) at home. The Sounders are 5-10-4 away from the Clink. Since Brian Schmetzer took over the Sounders, they are 4-3-2 on the road (including 1-1-0 during playoffs).
Toronto struggled a bit as the season neared its end. In their last five home games, they are just 1-1-3 but have been unstoppable at home during the playoffs (3-0-0, +4 GD).
Bovada also released their odds for MLS Cup and here is how they break everything down,
Odds via @bovadaLV:— Jonathan Tannenwald (@thegoalkeeper) December 2, 2016
TFC in regulation 10/11
TFC in OT 15/2
TFC on PKs 11/1
Seattle in regulation 7/4
Seattle in OT 10/1
Seattle on PKs 11/1
As you can see, everything odds-wise favors Toronto at this time, and it should since they are playing at home. Soccer is a fickle sport, however, and all it takes is one momentary lapse in judgment and the entire game can turn on its head.