By the numbers: Seattle Sounders v. Toronto FC

We’re not finished yet.

On Saturday, December 10, the Seattle Sounders play their final match of the season, and boy is it a big one. Win their first MLS Cup, and Seattle will have effectively turned around a literal worst-to-first season.

Seattle faces a Toronto FC team that also overcame early challenges — ending the season on a similarly strong winning streak.

You’ve read the scouting report on Toronto FC, so you know the players to watch and the weaknesses Seattle needs to exploit. You’ve watched two hype videos and have so much damn hype you’re about to explode.

Now, join me in taking a look at the numbers to see how Seattle and Toronto match up on paper.

Seattle Attack v. Toronto Defense

From a pure numbers perspective, Seattle’s attack and Toronto’s defense match up pretty evenly. Toronto allows nearly the same number of goals that Seattle scores, and the same goes for shots. But we know that, cumulatively, this has been an unusual season for Seattle; the numbers might not tell the whole story. In the playoffs, Toronto allowed 6 goals in 5 matches. Seattle scored 8 in the same period of time.

Seattle Defense v. Toronto Attack

As you’ll see in the graphic, Toronto likes to score goals. But they haven’t met a defensive unit as strong as the Sounders in some time. Toronto doesn’t score a lot from counter attacks, which bodes well for the Sounders. And with Giovinco taking over 5 shots per game, if you can shut him down, Toronto’s attack struggles.

Possession

This is where Seattle has the edge. We pass more and possess more than Toronto. Move the ball effectively, and the Sounders can control the game. Control the game, and the Sounders can win. Win, and that glorious MLS Cup is coming to Seattle!