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Seattle Sounders’ playoff destiny, and what today means

A win makes it more probable than not they make the playoffs.

Seattle Sounders vs. Vancouver Whitecaps: Photos Mike Russell

The Seattle Sounders roll into Carson with the hope to beat the perennial dream killers. A win will go a long way for Seattle’s playoff chances. Thanks to the LA Galaxy being devastated by injuries—to the point they’ve called Landon Donovan out of retirement—it is ripe time for the Sounders to play spoiler on the Galaxy’s playoff clinching match.

The Galaxy are only in the playoffs if they win today, otherwise they have to wait at least one more game to lock in their spot. In Seattle’s case, they can’t even move into the final playoff spot with a win tonight but with games in hand, does that matter?

Saturday’s games saw a Sporting KC win over San Jose, meaning at least one team fighting Seattle dropped points, though a draw would’ve been better. Vancouver drew against Colorado in a match that saw Kendall Waston pick up a red, meaning he’ll sit against the Sounders next weekend. Portland, meanwhile, traveled to Houston and lost, busting the door wide open for Seattle.

A win today is obviously the best option, moving Seattle only three points behind sixth but with two games in hand over Portland. The Sounders would still be five points from fifth, same games in hand.

Vancouver’s draw and San Jose’s loss mean the competition from below Seattle is dwindling. Drawing in LA would be a decent result, as Seattle would be five points from Portland and on pace to make the playoffs with wins at home over Chicago, Houston, and RSL.

Losing would be potentially crushing to Seattle’s momentum and the dreams of fans, but with two in hand and six points back of sixth place (owning the tiebreaker over Portland), the Sounders would still control their own destiny.

With Seattle currently at a 37.5% to make the playoffs, a win pushes that to over 50%. A draw pushes it up to just under 40%.

Overall, a win would be perfect. Go to “rival,” win, prevent them from clinching an all but guaranteed playoff spot this week, and put yourself one step closer to the playoffs. Seattle has no room for error with a loss, almost none with a draw, but a win gives them the ability to lose in Dallas without any repercussions and a more probable than not chance to be in the dance.

Max points and position, presuming max points for others:

Win - 53, 5th Place

Draw - 51, 6th Place

Loss - 50, 6th Place